Israeli strike targeting Hezbollah leader raises risk of full-scale war

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Sep 27, 2024 View in browser   By Robbie Gramer, Erin Banco, Jonathan Lemire and Eric Bazail-Eimil Israel launched a massive airstrike against Hezbollah’s headquarters in Beirut on Friday targeting the group’s longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah. | Ibrahim Amro/AFP via Getty Images With help from Nahal Toosi, Joe Gould and Paul McLeary Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric For months, the Biden administration has been trying to avert a nightmare scenario in the Middle East of a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah. All those efforts may have just been thrown out the window. Israel launched a massive airstrike against Hezbollah’s headquarters in Beirut on Friday targeting the group’s longtime leader, HASSAN NASRALLAH, as your hosts and our own NAHAL TOOSI write. It’s still unclear whether Nasrallah was killed or injured, or even in the complex at the time, but either way it marks a dramatic escalation in the conflict in Lebanon. It may also entirely upend U.S.-led efforts to clinch a cease-fire deal between Israel and the Iran-backed military group. This could in turn fuel more tension between the Biden administration and Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s government over the spiraling Middle East crisis. If Nasrallah were to be killed, it would also mark one of the most significant Israeli blows against Hezbollah in decades; Nasrallah has led the Iran-backed militant group since 1992, after Israel assassinated its previous leader. “Whether or not Israel was successful in killing Nasrallah today, this will no doubt be a marked escalation in the conflict that will put us beyond the threshold of an all-out war,” said FIRAS MAKSAD of the Middle East Institute. Israel has been pummeling Hezbollah positions and munitions stockpiles in recent days, and its military said it has struck more than 220 Hezbollah targets. Escalating fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in that time has killed nearly 700 people and forced 90,000 to flee their homes in Lebanon. Top Biden administration officials have been scrambling to get Israel and Hezbollah to agree to a pause in fighting. The National Security Council did not immediately respond to comment on how the latest airstrike affects those efforts. But President JOE BIDEN told confidants and allies while both in New York and Washington this week that he was livid at Netanyahu and did not believe the Israeli leader wanted to reach peace with either Hamas or Hezbollah, according to two officials. Both were granted anonymity to discuss internal administration thinking. The latest Israeli strike could exacerbate those tensions. Biden was frustrated, the officials said, about how often Netanyahu had humiliated his administration by publicly undermining its peace negotiations in both Gaza and Lebanon. And for weeks, Biden has privately criticized the prime minister for putting his political aims ahead of the will of his people in continuing to brush off U.S.-led peace negotiations. On Tuesday, during his own speech to the U.N., Biden appeared to allude to those gripes in public, without naming names. “Some things are more important than staying in power,” Biden said. Read the full story here. A message from Lockheed Martin: What matters to us is protecting what matters most. Lockheed Martin’s mission is to protect the ones who serve in their service to the nation. It’s why we lead the way in developing new defense tech and pushing the capabilities of what’s possible to bring security to an unsecure world. Learn more.   The Inbox ZELENSKYY’S TRUMP TOWER TRIP: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY met with former President DONALD TRUMP in New York on Friday, after Trump denigrated Zelenskyy on the campaign trail and Vice President KAMALA HARRIS bashed Trump on his track record on Russia and Ukraine. Trump, speaking alongside Zelenskyy, vowed to negotiate a deal that was good for “both sides” if he wins in November, as our own MERIDITH McGRAW reports. Those comments could anger Ukraine’s allies in Washington, who want negotiations that won’t benefit Russia for its full-scale invasion. “I think the fact that we’re even together today is a good sign, and hopefully we’ll have a good victory because if the other side wins, I don’t think we’re going to have victories with anything, to be honest with you,” Trump said. Zelenskyy was conciliatory in his statement after the meeting. “We understand after November we have to decide and we hope with the strength of the United States we will be very strong, and we count on it,” he said. “That’s why I have decided to meet with both candidates.” THE WITHDRAWAL THAT WASN’T: There are some changes coming to the 21-year old U.S. mission in Iraq, though Biden administration officials aren’t willing to fully explain what they actually are, as our own PAUL MCLEARY writes in. What we do know is that the Combined Joint Task Force-Inherent Resolve, the international coalition in Iraq, will wind down over the next year, which means “ending the presence of coalition forces in certain locations in Iraq” by September 2025, an administration official told reporters Friday. But for the 2,500 U.S. troops in Iraq, the future is less clear. Talks are ongoing with the Iraqis about a longer bilateral relationship between Washington and Baghdad, but U.S. forces will continue the counterterrorism mission in Iraq for the foreseeable future. “To be clear, the United States is not withdrawing from Iraq,” the administration official said. “We are moving towards the type of productive, long term security relationship the United States has with partners around the world.” (Ah yes, that trademark administration clarity.) What that means, according to the official, is continued Special Operations Forces-led operations with the Iraqis against ISIS leadership, and some sort of training and advising mission with the Iraqi army, which uses U.S.-made arms including Abrams tanks and F-16 jets. Much of what the American forces are doing in Iraq is to support operations in Syria, which also will not see much of a change. There are roughly 900 U.S. troops in Syria, where they train local Kurdish forces and target ISIS cells there. JONATHAN LORD of the Center for a New American Security said that U.S. troops in Iraq are largely the “logistical tail that supports what we're doing in Syria,” and “the old train and equip mission of just a few years ago and from early on in the ISIS fight, that's largely a vestige of the past, we have not been doing that for some time.” The announcement of a timeline for the U.S. taking on a new role in Iraq — but not pulling out troops as some Iraqi officials have suggested in recent weeks — will still likely help the Iraqi government of Prime Minister MOHAMMED SHIA AL-SUDANI domestically. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq “have used the conflict in Gaza as a way … to try and push for U.S. expulsion from Iraq,” Lord said. “There's a benefit politically to having a degree of ambiguity about what that future holds for the U.S. presence” there. SUBMARINE SABOTAGE? A top U.S. Navy shipbuilder in Virginia informed the Justice Department that faulty welding on U.S. submarines and aircraft carriers may have been the result of intentional errors. As U.S. Naval Institute News' SAM LAGRONE reports, the Navy said it was investigating the matter at the Newport News shipbuilding facilities, which is one of just two nuclear shipyards in the United States. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, in honor of the maelstrom of summitry that is UNGA, we’re featuring MARK LEON GOLDBERG, editor-in-chief of the U.N.’s Global Dispatches newsletter and podcast (and in NatSec Daily’s humble opinion, the uncrowned king of U.N. nerdom.) “This was my 18th UNGA in 19 years,” Mark told NatSec Daily. “Something unique about the vibe around the U.N. this week was the prominence of small island developing states. These countries typically speak with a lot of moral clarity about climate change — after all, it's existential for them in the here and now.” So naturally, Mark’s go-to drink of choice this UNGA week is the Banks Caribbean Lager, all the way from Barbados. Mark said it was in honor of Barbados Prime Minister MIA MOTTLEY, who at the Global Citizen Now conference on the sidelines of UNGA “delivered the single best speech I saw all week” on the high-stakes challenges that island nations like hers face as climate change-fueled disasters accelerate around the world. And when it’s not UNGA week, Mark can be found drinking the classic vodka soda, to either mourn the lack of global progress on tackling climate change or toast any breakthroughs on it. Cheers to that, Mark! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND! Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1     ELECTION 2024 THE OTHER UKRAINE RALLY: The Harris campaign stepped up its campaign pitch to Eastern European-Americans on Thursday night, hosting a virtual rally with Ukrainian Americans. The Thursday night Zoom event featured Rep. CHRISSY HOULAHAN (D-Pa.); ALEXANDER VINDMAN of the Institute for Informed American Leadership think tank; GRACE LANDRIEU, the Harris-Walz campaign policy director; and FILIP JOTEVSKI, the Harris-Walz campaign’s national director for European diasporas. NatSec Daily tuned in. “We can disagree on other issues. I understand that our community is a historically conservative community, but on this issue, on the issue of how we move forward as a country and a world, we cannot disagree. We have to support Kamala Harris,” Houlahan said. “We can argue about all the other things later as long as we protect and defend our democracy and our republic — and also the other democracies and republics of the world.” It’s the latest example of the Harris campaign’s efforts to try and to turn the administration’s support for Ukraine into a winning campaign pitch for Americans of Eastern European descent in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Keystrokes BIDEN’S CYBER AGONY: The White House is agonizing over whether to sign onto a U.N. treaty to establish norms governing cyber crime. As our own MAGGIE MILLER reports, the U.S. worries that authoritarian countries like Russia, China and Iran “could use the text as a guise for U.N. approval of their widespread surveillance measures and suppression of the digital rights of their citizens.” But the counterargument is that not supporting the treaty could cede ground for those same adversaries to lead the way on setting global cybersecurity standards and alienate U.S. allies. “We want to affirmatively, definitely do things to drive international partnership on cybercrime,” said deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technology ANNE NEUBERGER. “On the other hand, if there are these elements raising concerns, we have to really put both sides on the scale and say, ‘what’s the right approach here?’” The Complex A CZAR FOR DEFENSE INDUSTRY COLLABS:  With the U.S. facing growing competition from industrial powers like China and Russia, Sen. DAN SULLIVAN (R-Alaska) has introduced a bill to create a high-level Pentagon role focused on strengthening U.S. defense industry cooperation with allies, our friends at Morning Defense reported today (for Pros!). Though there’s been a flurry of Pentagon defense industrial coordination efforts with Europe in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Sullivan and others argue that allies still need a real anchor point at DOD to coordinate the flurry of activity. “A lot of defense capacity isn’t just in America. It’s with our allies. Some are struggling, especially in Europe, and others like South Korea and Japan have shipbuilding capacity we can learn from,” Sullivan said. While there is a deputy assistant defense secretary for international and industry engagement now, Sullivan’s bill would create an assistant defense secretary for international industrial base development and engagement (yep, that title is a long one!) who would report directly to the undersecretary for acquisition and sustainment. The Defense MoU Attachés Group, which represents 27 foreign military officials, praised the bill, with Chair SANDER OUDE HENGEL calling for a senior position to “leverage” U.S. alliances. The Defense Innovation Board and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce also back the idea, emphasizing the need for more integrated international defense collaboration. On the Hill DEMS TACKLE HAITI GUN-RUNNING: Nearly sixty House and Senate Democrats sent a letter to the Departments of Justice, Commerce, State and Homeland Security urging the Biden administration to take more robust action against weapons trafficking to Haiti from the United States. In the letter, the lawmakers, led by Sens. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) and BEN CARDIN (D-Md.) and Reps. GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.) and SHEILA CHERFILUS-McCORMICK (D-Fla.), call for increased staffing and stricter screening of packages going to Haiti and other parts of the Caribbean from U.S. ports, including the port of Miami. They also ask that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms step up its strategy to recover illegal firearms in Haiti so it can better trace arms trafficking rings. “Cracking down on the flow of illegal weapons that are facilitating rampant gang violence in Haiti advances U.S. security. It is also a moral imperative,” they wrote. As loyal NatSec Daily readers may remember, lawmakers have previously urged more U.S. action on gun-running, typically from Florida, to the Caribbean country, where gangs have overwhelmed local police forces. But the calls take on new urgency as a U.S. and Kenyan push to turn a multilateral security support mission against gangs in Haiti’s capital of Port-au-Prince into a lasting peacekeeping mission hits a snag from China at the Security Council and the international community struggles to marshal the resources needed to support the mission. Broadsides SCRIPTURE SHOWDOWN: It may be a Friday, but two world leaders at the U.N. General Assembly channeled their Sunday service energy as they traded competing Bible verses in their arguments about the future of the Israel-Palestine conflict. Quoting the biblical King Solomon and the first Book of Samuel, Netanyahu argued that Israel would prevail against its enemies and that it would continue fighting for its security. “The eternity of Israel will not falter,” he said, quoting a passage where the prophet Samuel announces God’s rejection of King Saul. But Barbados leader Mottley invoked the Apostle Paul’s letter to the Romans, saying that “when we turn from the Old Testament to the New Testament, it is Romans that says to us, ‘Vengeance is Mine, saith the LORD,’ not any country, not any human being, so that the Bible can't be used as a convenient aid when it suits us and rejected when it doesn't.” (Side bar, it’s worth noting that the New Testament isn’t theologically accepted in Judaism.) A message from Lockheed Martin: Prepared for tomorrow. Ready for today. Building a better world means developing the next generation of defense tech. We’re redefining what it means to be ready, so tomorrow’s challenges can be overcome today. Learn more.   TRANSITIONS — JONATHAN RUE has been named the Pentagon’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for Force Development and Emerging Capabilities. He was previously with the Pentagon’s Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation office. What to Read — JACOB STOKES, EVAN WRIGHT AND NATHANIEL SCHOCHET, Center for a New American Security: The China-Russia entente in East Asia — JEFF STEIN and CLAUDIA MÉNDEZ ARRIAZA, The Washington Post: Washington targeted ‘corrupt’ mines. Workers paid the greatest price. — JAMES STAVRIDIS, Bloomberg: U.S. is leaving its best Afghan allies behind Monday Today — Henry L. Stimson Center, 9 a.m.: The strategic culture of the United Wa State army — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10:30 a.m.: Gaza's intensifying humanitarian catastrophe: Expert perspectives — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 12:30 p.m.: On day one: A U.S. economic contingency plan for a Taiwan crisis — Atlantic Council, 3:30 p.m.: Adapting U.S. strategy to account for China's transformation into a peer nuclear power — Wilson Center's History and Public Policy Program, 4 p.m.: A virtual book discussion on "Weapons in Space: Technology, Politics, and the Rise and Fall of the Strategic Defense Initiative." — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 4 p.m.: Conflict and displacement in Sudan: The urgent need to reduce barriers to humanitarian response Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who sabotages submarines in her free time. Thanks to our producer, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, who is compiling evidence against Heidi to submit to the Justice Department.   Follow us on Twitter Robbie Gramer @RobbieGramer Eric Bazail-Eimil @ebazaileimil   Follow us

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