Friday, September 13, 2024

Don’t forget about air defenses, Ukrainian activists warn

From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.
Sep 13, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Eric Bazail-Eimil and Robbie Gramer

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Emergency and rescue personnel along with medics and others clear the rubble of a destroyed hospital building.

Emergency and rescue personnel clear the rubble of a destroyed hospital following a Russian missile attack on July 8, 2024. Ukrainian human rights lawyer Oleksandra Matviichuk warned that Russia is using attacks on civilian infrastructure to conduct psychological warfare against Ukrainians. | Roman Pilipey/AFP via Getty Images

Top Ukrainian activists are begging the West not to let Ukraine’s urgent need for more air defense systems get lost in the conversation, as Washington, London and other key allies of Kyiv debate whether to lift restrictions on the use of Western missiles to strike targets inside Russia.

In an interview with NatSec Daily, Ukrainian human rights lawyer and Nobel Prize laureate OLEKSANDRA MATVIICHUK warned that Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN is using attacks on civilian infrastructure, including schools, hospitals and the energy grid, as a way to conduct psychological warfare against Ukrainians and blunt their resolve.

“They deliberately provide such enormous pain and suffering with civilians to break any idea that we can to resist such [an] enormous opposing power, to make [it] so painful for people to live in the circumstances,” said Matviichuk, whose organization, the Centre for Civil Liberties, was jointly awarded the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize.

She argued for expediting existing orders for critical air defense technologies — like Patriot, National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System and IRIS-T systems.

“There is a crucial time before winter is coming and we face a possible new wave of depopulation of the country,” she argued. “We urgently need air defense systems and rockets to be able to secure Ukrainian sky and protect peaceful cities and peaceful civilians.”

On the offensive weapons front, President JOE BIDEN is in discussions with visiting British Prime Minister KEIR STARMER today on whether to ease restrictions on how and where Ukraine can hit inside Russia with weapons they provide. (The White House has said there are no major imminent announcements on the matter.)

Ukrainian President President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY reiterated his call today for Western allies to lift those restrictions.

Zelenskyy also accused allies of avoiding conversations about providing Ukraine with air support to down missiles and drones. In an open letter released earlier this week, Matviichuk and others also called on NATO allies to down incoming missiles and drones using air defense systems stationed in their countries.

Western defense officials say that they are running low on air defense stockpiles for both Ukraine’s needs and their own, even as Russia ramps up production of missiles and drones with help from its own allies like Iran to target Ukrainian cities. And the transatlantic defense industrial base has lagged in fulfilling the exceedingly high demand from Kyiv and allies.

“We don’t have huge stockpiles. We’re now faced with tough choices,” MAX BERGMANN of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told NatSec Daily. “The defense industry has not figured out how to ramp up production of air defense fast enough.”

The Inbox

WHITE HOUSE SWATS PUTIN’S THREATS: Putin warned today that if Western allies relent to Ukraine’s request, it would change the “very essence of this conflict.” The White House and other capitals aren’t exactly sweating the Kremlin’s warnings.

National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY downplayed Putin’s comments today, noting that the Russian leader has made similar threats in the past.

“We take these comments seriously,” Kirby told reporters. “But it is not something that we haven't heard before.” He added: “If Mr. Putin is so concerned about the safety and security of Russian sites and cities, the easiest way to alleviate those concerns is to get his troops the hell out of Ukraine, end the war.”

White House spokesperson KARINE JEAN-PIERRE was a bit more pointed in her reaction to the news. At a press briefing, she called Putin’s comments “incredibly dangerous." But she added: “it's not new for Russia.”

“This is their aggression. This is what they have done,” Jean-Pierre continued.

Berlin was also unfazed by the Kremlin’s menaces. German Defense Minister BORIS PISTORIUS said “Putin's threats are Putin's threats, that's all that needs to be said. He threatens whenever he likes and whenever he sees fit.”

KIM FLAUNTS HIS TOYS: North Korea unveiled new photos of a secretive facility used in producing weapons-grade uranium Friday, as The Wall Street Journal’s DASL YOON reports. The photo-op is more than just a photo-op: It’s seen as a brazen public relations move that underscores how confident North Korean leader KIM JONG UN is about the international community’s inability to stop his nuclear weapons program — particularly as it receives more support and diplomatic cover from Russia.

SPRINGFIELD’S NIGHTMARE: Schools in Springfield, Ohio were evacuated or closed for a second day today after an influx of threats. The city has received unwanted national attention after right-wing influencers and eventually former President DONALD TRUMP spread bogus claims that Haitian refugees resettled in the suburb were stealing and eating pets.

DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.

Today, we’re featuring JASON BEARDSLEY, an Army and Navy veteran who leads veterans initiatives at Stand Together and works at the advocacy group Concerned Veterans for America. Eric met up with Jason, who previously served as a senior adviser to both Acting Secretary of Defense CHRIS MILLER and Secretary of Veterans Affairs ROBERT WILKIE, earlier this week and chatted over some old fashioneds.

Jason’s go-to is often bourbon on the rocks, but he loves ordering negronis and dirty gin martinis, preferably with Bombay Sapphire gin for the spritz of juniper berry it provides and a skewer of blue cheese olives. And at home, he also enjoys making old fashioneds and adding Ancho Reyes chili liqueur for an extra kick.

The best memories with a drink, Jason said, came during his deployment to the Horn of Africa when two of his friends sent him a sorely needed care package.

“Somewhere right after I'm at my lowest point, I get this box at my door, and I open it up, and I find this bottle of Johnny Walker Blue with a bag of coffee and some cheap cigars,” he recounted. “I went from sad and despondent to probably the happiest I've ever been for an alcoholic drink. And I used that as a calendar and poured a little bit every day just until the end of the time that was there.”

Cheers, Jason!

IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND! Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil.

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1

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Lockheed Martin’s mission is to protect the ones who serve in their service to the nation. It’s why we lead the way in developing new defense tech and pushing the capabilities of what’s possible to bring security to an unsecure world. Learn more.

 
ELECTION 2024

GOP DODGES TRUMP’S UKRAINE DODGE: Trump’s comments at Tuesday’s debate about the war in Ukraine raised a lot of eyebrows — but as our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) wrote this morning, you’d be hard pressed to find many Republicans on Capitol Hill criticizing his dodge on whether he wants Ukraine to win against Russia.

"I've been against this war all along because it's a no-win for us,” said Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.). “It's gonna cost us a ton of money and Ukraine can't win. We're on the verge of really pissing off one of the major powers in the world, which is Russia.”

Even Republican allies of Kyiv defended or explained away Trump’s comments. Rep. MIKE GARCIA (R-Calif.), who led a white paper bashing Biden for not defining Ukraine’s path to victory, said “Of course [Trump] wants Ukraine to win. … We all want Ukraine to win.” And Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) suggested that Trump wants to leave himself maximum flexibility in that negotiation.

“I think that the goal is to make sure that the war ends and Putin is not rewarded for the invasion and Ukraine is still standing,” Graham told our own JOE GOULD. “I think what Trump's worried about is basically he wants to focus on ending the war and stopping the killing, not putting himself in a box of what winning or losing looks like.”

As Joe writes, the lack of widespread rebukes speaks to how Trump’s foreign policy view has gained in strength within GOP ranks and the influence Trump continues to wield within the party.

The Complex

BEYOND PROPAGANDA: The State Department accused Russian outlet RT, a division of Russian state media, of transforming from propaganda to a sophisticated arm of the Russian intelligence services, our own JOSEPH GEDEON reports.

RT has used crowdfunding platforms to buy military equipment and funnel it to the Russian military to aid its war effort in Ukraine, and some of that equipment was sourced from China, the State Department alleges. The purchases, which included sniper rifles and suppressors, personal weapon sights, body armor and tactical clothing, night vision equipment, drones, radio equipment and diesel generators, avoided detection because they were done in small quantities.

RT’s editor in chief MARGARITA SIMONYAN said in a Telegram post that “American intelligence services have found out that we are helping the front. We are doing it openly, idiots. Send a list of how much of what we bought and sent? We publish this regularly, if anything."

On the Hill

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — A DIRECT APPEAL TO JOHNSON: House Democrats are making a direct appeal to House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON (R-La.) to fix a looming issue with U.S. diplomats’ pay before steep cuts inadvertently take effect next month, according to a draft copy of a letter being circulated by Rep. DINA TITUS (D-Nev.) and obtained by NatSec Daily. The letter is still being circulated and not yet finalized.

NatSec Daily readers will remember we were the first to report on how a pay system known as Overseas Comparability Pay, or OCP, will lapse on Oct. 1 without a fix by Congress. This would cut roughly $21,000 from the salaries of some 10,000 U.S. government workers posted abroad — and effectively all by accident. Needless to say, many U.S. diplomats are livid. The fix would have to be in a stopgap government funding bill Congress is scrambling to finalize to avert a government shutdown.

“Without an extension of OCP, the U.S. diplomatic corps — a collection of fiercely patriotic individuals who bravely advance U.S. interests abroad at great personal sacrifice — will be unfairly penalized,” the draft letter reads.

 

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Broadsides

DAS VEDANYA, BRITS: Russia expelled six U.K. diplomats stationed at the British embassy in Moscow today, alleging they were engaged in espionage.

As our own CSONGOR KÖRÖMI reports, the Russian security service FSB said in a statement that Russian authorities received “documentary materials confirming London’s coordination of the escalation of the international military-political situation.” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson MARIA ZAKHAROVA said the actions of the British diplomats were aimed at “causing harm” to the Russian people and that they “went far beyond the limits set by the Vienna Convention.” She did not explain how the diplomats contravened those rules.

The U.K. Foreign Office confirmed that Moscow withdrew the diplomatic accreditations of six of its diplomats last month, but it added that Russia’s claims as “completely baseless.”

What to Read

HARRY STEVENS, War on the Rocks: Strangers in the motherland: The dynamics of Russia’s foreign recruitment

JULIAN BARNES, ADAM RASGON, ADAM GOLDMAN and RONEN BERGMAN, The New York Times: How Hamas uses brutality to maintain power

NORA GÁMEZ TORRES, The Miami Herald: Forced exile of EDMUNDO GONZÁLEZ raises questions about Biden’s approach to Venezuela

A message from Lockheed Martin:

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Building a better world means developing the next generation of defense tech. We’re redefining what it means to be ready, so tomorrow’s challenges can be overcome today. Learn more.

 
Monday Today

Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab, 9 a.m.: A symposium on "The New Cold War?: Congressional Rhetoric and Regional Reactions to the U.S.-China Rivalry"

Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: A discussion on Russian war crimes and efforts to bring war criminals to justice

Wilson Center's Global Europe Program, 11 a.m.: Cyprus banks on the frontline of sanctions compliance

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11 a.m.: The UN Summit of the Future: What to expect

House Armed Services Committee, 12 p.m.: A field hearing on "Fielding Technology and Innovation: Industry Views on Department of Defense Acquisition"

Brookings Institution and the Council on Foreign Relations, 1:30 p.m.: Election '24: What's at stake for U.S.-European relations?

Hudson Institute, 3:30 p.m.: The United States and India: Milestones reached and the pathway ahead

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whose nuclear threats we never take seriously.

Thanks to our producer, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, who is helping us curb Heidi’s saber-rattling.

CORRECTION: Thursday’s newsletter misstated the country where Jim Rosapepe served as ambassador.

 

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