House GOP’s stages of spending grief

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Sep 13, 2024 View in browser   By Jordain Carney Presented by  With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team Speaker Mike Johnson is navigating a government funding fight that divides his conference. | Francis Chung/POLITICO GOP STARTS SAYING THE QUIET PART OUT LOUD House Republicans are increasingly acknowledging publicly what they’ve been saying privately: Congress is heading toward a short-term bill to fund the government into December, and it won’t include their voting bill. But with nine slated House session days left to go until the Oct. 1 government shutdown deadline, there are still Republicans who aren’t willing to acknowledge that likely end game just yet.  Instead, the House ended the week largely where it started — focused on a spending proposal that has no shot in the Senate and is a longshot to even pass the House. One GOP lawmaker quipped they might leave town until the final spending vote. Another asked us sarcastically: “It’s a good thing we came up here this week, isn’t it?” After conservatives scuttled Speaker Mike Johnson’s initial plan to fund the government through March 28 and attach a bill that requires proof of citizenship to register to vote, several House Republicans seem to have graduated from the denial stage of grief and smacked into the bargaining phase. The next plan: Some GOP appropriators are floating shortening the length of the stopgap funding bill — known as a continuing resolution or a CR — to December and tying that to the GOP voting proposal, known as the SAVE Act. Others are proposing that they drop the SAVE Act and just fund the government through March. And still others are talking about a 90-day funding bill, a shorter timeframe than the December date favored by Democrats (more below on what the appropriators are up to behind the scenes). And some conservatives, such as Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), prefer a stopgap bill that would go even further into next year (though he would vote for Johnson’s current plan.) But to be clear: It’s very unlikely (you might say impossible) that any of those alternatives could clear the House. Six-month spending bill without the SAVE Act: That doesn’t move the GOP’s anti-CR faction and Democrats have little incentive to go with this since Republicans will need to lean on them for help anyway.  December spending bill with the SAVE Act: Republicans are hoping this would flip more Democrats, but it’s unlikely that would be enough given it would probably lose more Republican votes. In addition to that problem, a holdout we spoke to was skeptical it moved current “no” votes enough to change the outcome of a floor vote.  Six-month spending bill with the SAVE Act: Johnson vowed that his team was only delaying a vote on his initial plan as he tries to figure out a path forward. But no Republicans we’ve spoken with expect that the bill as it was rolled out earlier this month can get the votes to pass at this point.  It reminds us of last year, when Kevin McCarthy watched his right flank tank his plan to pass a funding bill loaded up with GOP priorities. As we’ve previously reported, Johnson doesn’t face the threat of an immediate ouster, but the spending fight will impact the leadership election if Republicans keep the majority. Where that leaves us: A growing number of Republicans — conservatives and centrists — are increasingly acknowledging: Congress will pass a short-term bill that funds the government into late November or December. “I think we end up at a short-term CR,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said, adding that the end date will have to be in November or December “in order to pass.” So why go through this? House Republicans we’ve spoken to over the past month were (rightly) skeptical that they would be able to pass any funding bill on their own, given division within their own conference. But some of them also wanted to at least try to show they were fighting, even if the outcome seemed inevitable. Or, as Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) told us about Johnson’s current plan: “I hope it’s a sincere effort. … But I’ll take a fake fight over no fight.” — Jordain Carney  GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Friday, Sept. 13, where Congress’ first week back has us very ready for the weekend.   A message from the Electronic Payments Coalition: DON’T BUY CORPORATE MEGA-STORES’ HYPOCRISY Corporate mega-stores are pushing the ultimate hypocrisy. They want backdoor price controls to save money on credit card services they use, but have certainly increased prices on American families for essentials like eggs and milk. Don’t be fooled—learn how they flip-flop on government price controls.   WHAT APPROPRIATORS ARE SAYING PRIVATELY  Even as GOP appropriators are publicly pitching the idea of a December spending bill tied to the SAVE Act, behind closed doors they are clamoring for a “clean” spending bill into December. In a private meeting on Wednesday of GOP chairs of Appropriations subcommittees — known as cardinals — several senior Republicans told Appropriations Chair Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) that he should encourage Johnson to proceed with a so-called clean stopgap instead, according to three people familiar with the discussions. It’s a shift from their public support of Johnson’s plan. They are trying to be careful not to cut against the speaker publicly — hence their current pitch of tying the SAVE Act to a December spending bill. Johnson is still sticking with linking the two issues. But that doesn’t mean tying the two issues together is actually their preferred plan — as one of them told us, it’s the only game in town right now — and they know where the spending fight is likely to end up: Leaning on Democrats to pass a relatively clean spending bill. — Sarah Ferris with an assist from Jordain Carney   A message from the Electronic Payments Coalition:   WES MOORE SPOTTING AT CAPITOL Maryland Gov. Wes Moore visited the Capitol this week to push lawmakers to include more disaster funding in a potential stopgap measure that would fund the government. Moore is pushing for not only more funding for the state of Maryland and the rebuilding of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, but also for states who have weather disasters and need additional aid, a person close to Moore told POLITICO. The House Republican stopgap measure included Federal Emergency Management Agency funding, but the governor wanted the final measure to include more, the person said. This isn’t the first time Moore visited the Capitol to speak with lawmakers about bridge funds. He’s made a few stops in the past to meet with lawmakers for funding in his state. And Moore previously expressed optimism about the help, telling our colleagues at Morning Transportation he has spoken with more than 200 members and planned a fall push to find a vehicle on which legislation responding to the bridge collapse can move. — Daniella Diaz  HUDDLE HOTDISH Our team had some fun with this today.  QUICK LINKS  Bipartisan group of lawmakers signs pledge to certify 2024 election results, from Sarah Ferris Wall Street wins in GOP stalemate on China, from Jasper Goodman and Eleanor Mueller Congress asked to weigh impeaching ex-judge for alleged sexual misconduct, from The Washington Post’s Tobi Raji and Ann E. Marimow TRANSITIONS  Send your transitions to insidecongress@politico.com and we’ll publish them here! MONDAY IN CONGRESS The House has a 4 p.m. pro forma. The Senate is in. MONDAY AROUND THE HILL Crickets, so far.   A message from the Electronic Payments Coalition: DON’T BUY CORPORATE MEGA-STORES’ HYPOCRISY Corporate mega-stores are pushing the ultimate hypocrisy. They want backdoor price controls to save money on credit card services they use, but have certainly increased prices on American families for essentials like eggs and milk. Don’t be fooled—learn how they flip-flop on government price controls.   TRIVIA THURSDAY’S ANSWER: Mark Silverman was the first to correctly guess that Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) got a rose tattoo with her granddaughter last year. The rose’s central petal is a D, the first letter of her last name. TODAY’S QUESTION, from Mark: Since 2000, which president nominated the most individuals for Senate-confirmed positions in their first three years of office? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com. 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