| | | | |  | | By Eric Bazail-Eimil, Paul McLeary and Joe Gould | |  Children climb on a Russian T-62 tank in a local military Patriot park in the Russian city of Kursk, some 150 km from Ukraine's border on May 28, 2023. | Olga Maltseva/AFP via Getty Images | With help from Miles J. Herszenhorn, Nahal Toosi, Joe Gould and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Ukraine’s winning streak continues this week as the Biden administration considers giving Kyiv one of its biggest boosts in military capacity to date. As our own ERIN BANCO, PAUL McLEARY and JOE GOULD reported this morning, the Biden administration is “open” to providing Ukraine with long-range cruise missiles for use with F-16 fighter jets. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY’s advisers and Ukrainian parliamentarians have been pressing Biden officials and lawmakers on Capitol Hill to send Kyiv long-range Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles. And while no final decision has been made on sending the missile, a Biden administration official said it is working through the issues to send them to Kyiv. Those issues, per the official, include reviews of the transfer of sensitive technologies, and ensuring Ukraine’s Soviet-era jets can launch the 2,400-pound missile that carries a 1,000-pound warhead. The Pentagon is already working with Ukraine on those technical issues, two officials said. Restrictions on the use of U.S.-supplied weapons in Russia will remain in place, despite Ukrainian protests. But granting Ukraine access to the long-range Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile would still be a major boost to Kyiv’s abilities to fire back at Russia, as the munition can strike at targets over 230 miles away. The F-16s jets donated this summer by European countries are not expected to fly close to Russian lines for fear of being shot down and having JASSMs in stock would remedy that limitation. Lt. Gen. DAVID DEPTULA, the chief planner for the 1991 U.S. air war in Kuwait and Iraq, told NatSec Daily that the move is "better late than never, but like all their delayed deliveries and excessive deference to Putin’s rhetoric on escalation, they have caused this war to be drawn out and as a result given the Russians the gift of time.” “The more long range weapons the Ukrainians are provided with no constraints, the sooner they can force the Russians to a situation that favors Ukraine," he continued.
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We’re transforming the way the U.S. Navy deploys combat system capability to 'defend against sophisticated threats. Learn more. | | | | | DOHA TALKS UNDERWAY: Gaza cease-fire talks are underway once more in the Qatari capital, but a deal is far from imminent, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said today. The hold-up is in the details of the agreement and the mechanisms needed to implement them, not in the broad framework, Kirby told reporters. (Of course the administration has said before that there was broad agreement, only to have both Israel and Hamas later say there very much wasn’t) The talks are aimed at bringing at least a temporary end to the fighting between Hamas militants and Israel, although the former has not sent an official delegation. The intermediaries include Egypt, the United States and Qatar. “We're at a point now where the framework is generally accepted, and where the gaps are in the execution of the deal, the individual muscle movements that go with putting the deal in place,” Kirby told reporters. Translation: There are still plenty of pitfalls ahead. JAILED FOR A DONATION: Russian-American citizen KSENIA KARELINA was sentenced to 12 years in prison by a Russian court on Thursday on charges of treason for donating to a Ukrainian humanitarian group, The Washington Post’s ROBYN DIXON reports. Karelina’s sentencing comes just weeks after the historic prisoner swap between the West and Russia that freed several Americans from Russian penal colonies. Karelina was accused of supporting Ukraine’s military financially after Russian investigators found evidence of a $50 donation to a Ukrainian charity. Karelina’s boyfriend, CHRIS VAN HEERDEN, said in a statement: “She was left behind in the prisoner swap that occurred on August 1, but I pray that there will be an opportunity for Ksenia to come home. I am asking – pleading – with the US State Department to designate Ksenia as a wrongful detainee and work for her release.” UKRAINE CAPTURES SUDZHA: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said the Ukrainian military has captured the town of Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk region, the largest town captured by Ukraine since it began the daring offensive earlier this month, our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports. But even as Ukraine has made further advances in Kursk, the Russian military has continued to capture more Ukrainian territory in the eastern Donetsk region. IVAN SEKACH, the spokesperson for Ukraine’s 110th Mechanized Brigade, said that the situation has “become worse” in the east. “We have been getting even less ammo than before and Russians are pushing,” Sekach said. DON’T LOOK AT US: A top Ukrainian government official denied the country’s involvement in the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline one day after Germany issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian citizen suspected of carrying out the attack, per Reuters’ PAVEL POLITYUK. Instead, top Zelenskyy adviser MYKHAILO PODOLYAK blamed Russia for the attack even though the loss of the pipeline left Russia mostly unable to transport gas to European buyers. Russia has previously claimed that Kyiv was responsible for the attack, as well as Washington and London. NEW DELHI’S INFLUENCE: Indian officials pushed the U.S. last year to reduce its criticism of then-Bangladeshi Prime Minister SHEIKH HASINA, who was ousted last week. As The Washington Post’s GERRY SHIH, ELLEN NAKASHIMA and JOHN HUDSON report, Indian officials told their U.S. counterparts that criticizing Hasina for increased authoritarianism could result in the country becoming a hotbed of Islamist groups and a threat to India’s national security. Washington, in turn, reduced its fire towards Dhaka and backed off from threats to sanction the Bangladeshi government. But an explosion of student protests saw Hasina flee the country and a new caretaker government was formed under humanitarian and Nobel Peace Prize laureate MUHAMMAD YUNUS. And some in Washington worry that New Delhi under Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI is increasingly being seen as a meddling aggressive power within South Asia, the Post reports. IT’S THURSDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | | | During unprecedented times, POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy. Live briefings, policy trackers, and and people intelligence secures your seat at the table. Learn more. | | | | | | | | | DNC PROTESTS’ PERMIT LIMITS: A coalition that plans to demonstrate against the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza during next week’s Democratic National Convention is unhappy with restrictions it faces. They plan to take the issue to court. CBS News reports that more than 200 groups have joined forces to march on the convention amid their anger over the plight of the Palestinians in Gaza. The coalition has been granted a permit for the protest. But some of their representatives spoke out today against the limits that the city of Chicago has imposed on the permit. The conditions, for instance, say the protesters cannot put up stages, use sound equipment, or put up portable toilets or tents, according to the report.
| | | | IRAN’S CYBER CHOPS: Following a report from Google’s Threat Analysis Group on Wednesday that an Iranian hacking group has been linked to attacks against the Biden and Trump campaigns, there’s increasing attention on whether Iran might use a cyberstrike in its expected retaliation against Israel for the assassination of a top Hamas leader in Tehran, as our colleagues at Morning Cybersecurity report (for Pros!). ALEX VATANKA, the Middle East Institute’s Iran director, sees cyberattacks as a strategic “stepping down” from more overt forms of retaliation. But, he warns this offensive could be a prelude to more ambitious operations, especially if a cyberattack can “disable Israeli air defenses or somehow put their military at a disadvantage.” In April, APT42 significantly ramped up its efforts against Israeli users, particularly those with ties to the military, defense sector, diplomats, academics and NGOs, according to the Google report. MAX LESSER, a senior analyst on emerging threats at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told our own MAGGIE MILLER that “Iranians really understand the psychological side of cyber” and that “it’s highly likely that Iran would conduct a perception hack to hype up their own attack.”
| | | | DON’T MISS OUR AI & TECH SUMMIT: Join POLITICO’s AI & Tech Summit for exclusive interviews and conversations with senior tech leaders, lawmakers, officials and stakeholders about where the rising energy around global competition — and the sense of potential around AI and restoring American tech knowhow — is driving tech policy and investment. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | AMPHIB BLOCK-BUY: Navy Secretary CARLOS DEL TORO has informed Congress the sea service will finalize a multiyear purchase of four amphibious vessels from shipbuilder HII next month, Joe and Paul report (for Pros!). The deal, which includes three San Antonio-class amphibious transport docks and one America-class amphibious assault ship, marks the Navy's first block-buy of this kind. The purchase is expected to save taxpayers $901 million and provide steady work for HII’s Ingalls Shipbuilding in Pascagoula, Mississippi.The ships are meant to quickly get Marine Corps where they’re needed for amphibious assault, special operations and expeditionary warfare missions. "The Navy continues to work with Congress to fund, build and deliver the most capable warships to our warfighters,” said Capt. CLAY DOSS, a Navy spokesperson. “Certification of the Amphibious Multi-Ship Procurement contract award demonstrates the Navy’s support for maintaining 31 amphibious warfare ships, and if awarded, would provide American taxpayers with significant savings."
| | ANOTHER UKRAINE SUPPLEMENTAL: Fresh off a meeting with Zelenskyy during a visit to Ukraine, Sen. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.) told our colleagues at Morning Defense (for Pros!) that he and Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) will look to pass a new defense spending bill for Ukraine when Congress returns to session next month. The senators hope that Ukraine’s surprise offensive in Russia’s Kursk region will help convince more members of Congress to support a bill that would send additional military aid to Kyiv. Blumenthal said that he and Graham promised Zelenskyy to “fight for another supplemental before the end of the calendar year.” Despite the bipartisan backing in the Senate from Graham and Blumenthal, additional defense aid for Ukraine will likely face more opposition from House Republicans.
| | | VENEZUELA PRESSURE: Biden, asked today whether he also wanted new elections in Venezuela as the leaders of Brazil and Colombia call for a re-do, told reporters “I do,” as Eric reports. The White House, however, quickly attempted to walk back Biden’s comments. “The president was speaking to the absurdity of Maduro and his representatives not coming clean about the July 28 elections,” the National Security Council said in a statement. “It is abundantly clear to the majority of the Venezuelan people, the United States, and a growing number of countries that Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia won the most votes on July 28.” Biden’s comments came after increased pressure on Washington to take a more forceful stance on the election in Venezuela. Twenty former U.S. officials, among them four former U.S. ambassadors to Caracas, wrote in a letter to Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN dated Wednesday and posted today that Maduro’s actions “strike at the heart of broader U.S. foreign policy interests in the region.” They added that “the diplomatic efforts of Brazil, Colombia and Mexico are notable, but there is no substitute for U.S. leadership.” The opposition claims that its candidate, EDMUNDO GONZÁLEZ, decisively defeated Maduro in the country’s July election, pointing to receipts from polling places it compiled. The government has responded by jailing opposition activists and refusing to release precinct-level results, even in the face of international condemnations. When asked about Venezuela today, NSC spokesperson Kirby stopped short of calling González the president-elect, but told reporters that “we want to see the actual vote tallies, the data and we haven't seen that yet.” “We do believe that Mr. González won the majority of those. We believe that through a number of ways and a number of sources, but what's really definitive is the actual voting data,” Kirby added.
| | — Embattled Columbia University president MINOUCHE SHAFIK announced she would step down as leader of the Ivy League university, our own IRIE SENTNER reported Wednesday night. Shafik, an Egyptian-born economist who came under scrutiny for her handling of pro-Palestinian student protests, said in a message to the university community she will join the U.K. Foreign Office “to chair a review of the government’s approach to international development and how to improve capability.” — New Jersey Gov. PHIL MURPHY will appoint GEORGE HELMY, a former chief of staff to Sen. CORY BOOKER (D-N.J.), as the caretaker senator to fulfill the remainder of Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.)’s term, our own MATT FRIEDMAN and DANIEL HAN reported Wednesday night. — WILLIAM HOWLETT is now special assistant to the senior director for international economics at the National Security Council. He most recently was an international economist in the office of international monetary policy at the Treasury Department. — SHAWN BARNES and KATIE TOBIN have joined WestExec Advisors as senior advisors. Barnes previously served as deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force. Tobin was most recently a deputy assistant to the president and coordinator in the National Security Council.
| | | |   | | | | | — DAVIS WINKIE, POLITICO: TIM WALZ’s military retirement was more complicated than JD VANCE wants you to think — DANA STROUL, The New York Times: America’s plan in the Middle East is unraveling — JULIAN BUSCH and VINCENT HAIGES, New Lines Magazine: Sudan’s humanitarian crisis is only getting worse
| | — Business Council for International Understanding, 12 p.m.: Luncheon roundtable with JOSE ROMUALDEZ, ambassador of the Philippines to the U.S. — The Hudson Institute, 1:15 p.m.: Focusing the force. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who always makes us re-do the newsletter. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who supports our rough drafts.
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