| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza | Presented by the Brennan Center for Justice | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | BAD DAY TO CHECK YOUR 401(K) — “Losses Cascade as Traders Look to Fed for Rescue,” by Bloomberg’s Robert Brand and Allegra Catelli: “As concerns about a US economic slowdown intensified, traders ramped up bets that the Federal Reserve will step in with an emergency interest rate cut, putting the odds at 30% for a quarter-point reduction.”
|  Vice President Kamala Harris steps off of Air Force Two upon arrival at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland on July 27. | Stephanie Scarbrough/AP | THE VEEP’S VEEP — Today VP KAMALA HARRIS faces the most momentous decision of her political career: choosing her own potential vice president. It’s a tough enough task on a normal timeline; it’s even harder on an abbreviated vetting schedule with just 92 days till the election. Here is what we know about the choreography: On Saturday, the vetting team led by former AG ERIC HOLDER briefed Harris, going as deep as they were able on the roughly half-dozen final candidates. Yesterday, Harris held final interviews (or what were expected to be final interviews) with the top-tier candidates. Arizona Sen. MARK KELLY, Pennsylvania Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO and Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ interviewed with Harris at the VP’s residence, though a person familiar with the process told us that others might well have spoken virtually to Harris, as well. Those interviews will be crucial, we’re told. It’s a chance for would-be running mates to clear up vetting issues and test how simpatico their views of the upcoming campaign might be. But it’s also about chemistry: Can these two work closely for the next four to eight years? Do they like each other enough to tie their political fates together? That means today is decision day. Harris is scheduled to appear with her pick tomorrow in Philadelphia, so she essentially has the next 24 hours to think over her decision — and think over it some more — and then make a final call (and phone call). The precise nature of the rollout is not final, but campaign insiders are pointing to JOE BIDEN’s 2020 video introduction of Harris as a likely model, though a media leak of the pick could upend those plans. The hope and expectation in Harris world is that the announcement, and the subsequent seven-state brainstorming tour, generates the kind of excitement that will blot out much of the reporting in recent days on the sharp-elbowed jockeying taking place outside the confines of the Naval Observatory. “The final stage of the campaign to be [Harris’s] running mate reached something of an ugly phase in recent days,” as NYT’s Reid Epstein, Theodore Schleifer and Nick Corasaniti put it, “as donors, interest groups and political rivals from the party’s moderate and progressive wings lobbied for their preferred candidates and passed around memos debating the contenders’ political weaknesses with key demographics.” That chattering-class conversation goes something like this (apologies to Kentucky Gov. ANDY BESHEAR, Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG and Illinois Gov. JB PRITZKER): — KELLY: On paper, he’s almost irresistible. He’s an astronaut who has spent 54 days in space. He flew combat missions in Desert Storm. He has hands-on experience with immigration as a border-state senator. And he spent years working with wife GABBY GIFFORDS campaigning against gun violence — a core Democratic issue. But Kelly isn’t known as a dynamic personality. Multiple Democrats we spoke to (including those pulling for him) say it’s hard to see on the stump by himself pumping up a rally of thousands. And he’s facing lingering skepticism from Big Labor, who have taken note of his late conversion on their top legislative priority, the Protecting the Right to Organize Act. — SHAPIRO: No pick on the board has more upside. Setting aside that Harris is planning to introduce her running mate in Shapiro’s hometown, he’s the popular governor of the state that is almost literally the whole ballgame — no Pennsylvania, no 270. He’s charming, quick on his feet and great on the stump. He’s also the contender who has gotten the most oppo dumped on him over the past two weeks. From his college-age views on a two-state solution to criticism about how he spoke about campus protesters to questions about his own towering ambitions, progressives have found plenty to jawbone about. And then there’s this, which we heard from a Democrat this weekend: “If you think statewide popularity in your home state translates nationally, talk to RON DeSANTIS.” — WALZ: He’s only six months older than Harris but gives big Midwestern dad (granddad?) vibes. Progressives love his background: He served as both football coach and faculty advisor for the Gay-Straight Alliance during his two-decade high school teaching career. He was an officer in the Army National Guard, got elected to the House in 2006, survived the Tea Party wipeout four years later and is in his second term as governor. As governor, he’s benefited from a Democratic trifecta that allowed him to deliver a host of progressive wins. But that’s also his biggest demerit: In terms of balancing the ticket, he doesn’t do much as a blue-stater. Best to view Walz as the no-drama pick. WHAT THE GOP IS THINKING: We’ve watched DONALD TRUMP and fellow Republicans struggle over the past two weeks to find a message that doesn’t focus on Harris’s race and ethnicity. But her running-mate pick — the most obvious test Americans will see of her decision-making capabilities — gives them another chance to get it together. "Our hearts go out to whomever Kamala Harris chooses as her running mate, as they will be asked every day for the next 95 days how they could possibly stand by the most weak, failed, and dangerously liberal candidate in history,” KAROLINE LEAVITT, Trump’s national press secretary, told us. It will be JD VANCE on the front lines delivering those attacks this week, Alex Isenstadt reports this morning. The Ohio senator, he reports, will be “bracketing” the Democratic ticket this week — appearing at campaign events in four cities the mystery pair is set to visit, starting with Philadelphia tomorrow. MAGA Inc., the pro-Trump Super PAC, telegraphed some of the individual attacks in an email blast yesterday: Shapiro “wants boys in girls' sports,” Walz “did nothing while Minneapolis burned,” Kelly “supports Kamala's America Last agenda with his embrace of China,” and so forth. We called up a veteran Republican strategist for a more candid take. This operative, who worked in recent Arizona Senate elections, told us the GOP should be “terrified” of Kelly but also spoke highly of Shapiro as “the most difficult one to define.” Walz, on the other hand, “doesn’t add anything to the ticket. He’s not the future of the party like Shapiro or Buttigieg, not from an important state electorally, doesn’t print money or offer a great voice to one of the top issues on the ballot like Mark Kelly. “He’s got charming dad vibes, but if charming dad vibes helped elect presidents, TIM KAINE would be enjoying his last few months living in the Naval Observatory.” Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from the Brennan Center for Justice: Supreme Court reform is an issue whose time has come. Public trust in the Supreme Court has plunged to the lowest level ever recorded, and term limits for the justices has broad bipartisan support. Congress must take action to establish 18-year term limits and bring regular turnover to the bench. The result? A Court with more legitimacy that better reflects American values. No one should have that much power for life. Learn more about term limits. | | | MEDIAWATCH — A heated labor dispute at one of the country’s most prominent progressive media companies will come to a head today with the vast majority of Crooked Media employees set to walk off the job today in protest of protracted contract negotiations. The company behind “Pod Save America” and founded by prominent Obama administration alumni has been in talks with workers for more than a year, and bargaining unit member LUKE OBERHOLTZER told us the walkout is “a necessary step to encourage management to move towards us in these final weeks.” A Crooked Media spokesperson said that “we don't think walking out in the middle of negotiations makes a lot of sense and are eager to get back to the table so we can reach a deal this coming Wednesday and Thursday.” Management’s latest offer, the spokesperson said, included minimum salaries of $78,412; fully-paid-for health, dental and vision benefits; 18 weeks of parental leave and minimum severance of 12 weeks, among other items. But Oberholtzer said workers are seeking concessions on “several issues key to the unit including layoff protections, minimum salaries, annual raises, and the use of AI in unit work.” (The minimum salary the company has offered, he noted, is “nuanced and includes an end-of-year bonus wrapped into base salary.”) THE WEEK — Tomorrow: Harris holds a campaign rally in Philadelphia with her running mate. Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington hold congressional and state primaries. … Wednesday: Harris holds campaign events in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, and Detroit. … Thursday: Harris holds campaign events in Michigan and Raleigh, North Carolina. Anniversary of the Maui firestorm. … Friday: Status hearing in Trump’s D.C. election subversion trial. Trump holds a campaign rally in Bozeman, Montana. Harris holds campaign events in Savannah, Georgia, and Phoenix. 50th anniversary of President RICHARD NIXON’s resignation. … Saturday: Harris holds a campaign event in Las Vegas. … Sunday: Summer Olympics close in Paris. DNC COUNTDOWN — The Democratic National Convention is just two weeks away. Are you headed to Chicago? Join POLITICO for live, in-person conversations with the Democratic Party’s biggest newsmakers. Sign up to get notified when registration opens
| | | | A message from the Brennan Center for Justice:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate and the House are out. What we’re watching … Rep. JACK BERGMAN (R-Mich.) is a retired three-star Marine Corps general, a former Vietnam helicopter pilot and, at age 77, one of Congress’ biggest proponents of the use of psychedelic drugs to treat servicemembers with post-traumatic stress disorder. Erin Schumaker profiles Bergman, who is pushing the FDA to ignore an advisory panel’s decision and approve one company’s use of MDMA (aka ecstasy) to treat PTSD, alongside other members including Reps. LOU CORREA (D-Calif.), MORGAN LUTTRELL (R-Texas) and JIMMY PANETTA (D-Calif.). At the White House Biden will speak with King ABDULLAH II of Jordan at 11 a.m., before he and first lady JILL BIDEN return to the White House from Wilmington, Delaware. At 2:15 p.m., Biden will lead a Situation Room meeting of his national security team to track Middle East unrest, which Harris will attend.
| | | | During unprecedented times, POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy. Live briefings, policy trackers, and and people intelligence secures your seat at the table. Learn more. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 2024 WATCH
|  Just when you thought the election couldn’t get wilder, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Streisand-effected himself yesterday by trying to get out ahead of a crazy anecdote. | Jon Cherry/Getty Images | URSINE OF THE TIMES — Just when you thought the election couldn’t get wilder, ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. Streisand-effected himself yesterday by trying to get out ahead of a crazy anecdote The New Yorker’s Clare Malone relays in a big profile today. The story goes, as recounted by Kennedy (to ROSEANNE BARR) and Malone: In 2014, he was out falconing in New York when he came upon a dead black bear cub. He put the carcass in his car, posing for a picture with his hand in its mouth (“Maybe that’s where I got my brain worm”), and wanted to bring it home to skin. But Kennedy ended up having to rush to Peter Luger Steak House and then to the airport, so he ended up just dropping it in Central Park with a bike. The bear’s discovery made headlines at the time — unbelievably, and apparently in a coincidence, in a NYT article written by Kennedy’s relative TATIANA SCHLOSSBERG — but the culprit wasn’t identified until now. Kennedy said he hoped his Central Park plant might throw the city off his trail because of recent bike accidents, per Jessica Piper. Meanwhile, Kennedy’s third-party presidential campaign, which once looked like a real threat to peel off votes from Democrats and Republicans, continues to stumble downward in the polls. More top reads:
- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: A new memo from REBECCA LAMBE, a legend in Nevada Democratic politics, lays out a path for how the state can play a key role in powering Harris to victory. She writes that Harris has already improved on Biden’s standing in the Southwest and is well positioned to shore up support from key demographics, thanks to a message that frames the race as a past-vs.-future contrast and Democrats’ much-vaunted Nevada campaign infrastructure. Read it here
- The Harris campaign: Within the Democratic Party, Harris’ balancing act between moderates and progressives will likely be a constant source of tension. To wit: Her brother-in-law, Uber’s TONY WEST, is stepping up as a big force bolstering Harris, even as his corporate work makes the left uneasy, NYT’s Kate Kelly, Noam Scheiber and Ken Vogel report. And POLITICO’s staff has a big roundup this morning of all the policy arenas in which progressives are pressing Harris not to move too far right, from abortion to crypto.
- Tipping point: Harris has now slightly outpaced Trump in Nate Silver’s model for an Electoral College victory.
- Survey says: A new poll from Somos PAC and BSP Research finds Harris leading 55 percent to 37 percent among Latinos in battleground states — not as good as Biden in 2020, but improving over his standing earlier this year, The New Republic’s Greg Sargent scoops.
CONGRESS NOT GOING THERE — Trump wants major tariffs if he returns to the White House. But many Senate Republicans aren’t so sure about an across-the-board 10 percent penalty, Axios’ Stef Kight reports — including two men who might be GOP leader, Sens. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) and JOHN THUNE (R-S.D.). JUDGE FOR YOURSELF — Senate Democrats have now confirmed 205 of Biden’s federal judge nominees, the exact same pace that Senate Republicans had under Trump, Axios’ Stephen Neukam reports. And Dems want to match the GOP tally by the end of the year, too: The magic number is 234. AMERICA AND THE WORLD
|  Secretary of State Antony Blinken said yesterday that Iran’s and Hezbollah’s retaliation against Israel could commence as soon as today or tomorrow. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | MIDDLE EAST LATEST — With the region on edge over fears of an even larger war, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said yesterday that Iran’s and Hezbollah’s retaliation against Israel could commence as soon as today or tomorrow, Axios’ Barak Ravid reports. Blinken’s warning was conveyed to G7 foreign ministers in a conference call, as the U.S. and other Western countries hope that exerting diplomatic pressure might prevent Iran and its allies (and then Israel) from making the situation spiral out of control. And Blinken said the U.S. doesn’t have a clear sense of what attacks Iran or Hezbollah might make. As for a cease-fire/hostage release deal in the Israel-Hamas war, a frustrated Blinken told his G7 counterparts that they’d gotten close before Israel’s recent major assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. In the U.S., meanwhile, political fallout over the war could come to a head again later this month at the Democratic National Convention, where pro-Palestinian protesters are expected to number in the tens of thousands, the L.A. Times’ Jeffrey Fleishman reports from Chicago. HATEM ABUDAYYEH, one of the march’s organizers, says the switch from Biden to Harris hasn’t dimmed their momentum. On the flip side, Arab Americans for Trump leader BISHARA BAHBAH tells The New Yorker’s Isaac Chotiner that Trump has “indicated privately” he supports a two-state solution — which is contrary to Trump’s public comments earlier this year.
| | | | A message from the Brennan Center for Justice:   | | | VALLEY TALK WHAT ELON MUSK’S INTERNET LOOKS LIKE — “Secretaries of state urge Musk to fix AI chatbot spreading false election info,” by WaPo’s Sarah Ellison and Amy Gardner: “Grok, the AI search assistant on Musk’s X platform, suggested that Kamala Harris had missed the ballot deadline in nine states. She hasn’t.” ANOTHER MUSK READ — “Elon Musk PAC being investigated by Michigan secretary of state for potential violations,” by CNBC’s Brian Schwartz: “[The America PAC] has been acquiring detailed voter information from those living in Michigan and other battleground states after people submit their personal data through a section on the PAC’s website that says ‘register to vote.’ … A person with direct knowledge of the PAC’s operations told CNBC that, at one point since the group registered with the Federal Election Commission in May, the links on the website were functioning properly — but admits now they’re not.” POLICY CORNER
|  Though the SEC looks to be a top target for litigation, SEC Chair Gary Gensler is publicly staying calm. | Bill Clark/Pool via AP Photo | SCOTUS FALLOUT — When the Supreme Court’s conservative supermajority ended Chevron deference in their Loper Bright decision, the SEC looked to be a top target for litigation — and indeed the first major challenges to the Wall Street cop are now underway, Declan Harty reports this morning. Their initial target is a huge SEC stock market monitoring system, which aims to use surveillance to identify and root out potential abuses. Conservative criticisms of the system run from the gamut from privacy and data security concerns to the constitutionality of its setup to pay-fors for the $1 billion program. Multiple lawsuits are already underway — “one of the first signs of how opponents of the so-called administrative state plan to invoke the Chevron ruling against federal agencies.” An uncertain Washington has been scrambling to grapple with the fallout of the decision, though SEC Chair GARY GENSLER publicly is staying calm. More top reads:
- Inside the backlash: “How the 9/11 Plea Deal Came Undone,” by NYT’s Carol Rosenberg and Eric Schmitt: “A case that had mostly drifted from public consciousness in 12 years of proceedings is back in the spotlight and no closer to trial.”
MEDIAWATCH YOWZA — “Journal still can’t confirm January story about UN agency for Palestinians,” by Semafor’s Max Tani: “That one of the [WSJ’s] biggest and most impactful stories about the war was based on information it could not verify is a startling acknowledgement, and calls into question the validity of the claims as reported in the Journal.” MORE POLITICS CLIP AND SAVE — “What to watch in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington primaries,” by the Washington Examiner’s Rachel Schilke
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Kellyanne Conway registered as a foreign agent. Matt Bevin has not responded to a report that he has abandoned his adopted son in Jamaica. Doug Emhoff and Chasten Buttigieg took Fire Island. JD Vance’s “childless cat ladies” comment isn’t going over well at CatCon. MEDIA MOVES — NOTUS is adding Lissandra Villa de Petrzelka as an editor and Lillian Bautista as its first audience editor. Villa de Petrzelka most recently was a political reporter at The Boston Globe, and is a BuzzFeed News and Time alum. Bautista is a CNN alum. ENGAGED — Al Weaver, a Senate reporter at The Hill, proposed to Anne Keeney, a VP at the Glen Echo Group, on Saturday afternoon at Georgetown Waterfront Park. Pic … Another pic — Naomi Shavin, senior podcast producer at Bloomberg, and Ben Samuels, U.S. correspondent at Haaretz, got engaged over the weekend in Portland, Maine. They met when Naomi messaged Ben on Bumble, “Hey fellow journo.” Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: A.G. Sulzberger … Resident Commissioner Jenniffer González-Colón (R-Puerto Rico) … Planned Parenthood’s Alexis McGill Johnson … Rufus Gifford (5-0) … Blake Masters … State’s Sharon Weber … POLITICO’s Matt Berg and Meredith Jolivert … Ryan Wrasse of Sen. John Thune’s (R-S.D.) office … Boston Globe’s Jim Puzzanghera … Jeremy Flantzer … Kristofer Eisenla … Cicely Simpson … Molly Donlin of Regent Strategies … Laura Chace … Caroline Ehlich … Alicia Amling of Temerity Capital Partners … Nick Raineri … Mark Brunner of PsiQuantum … ABC’s Luis Martinez … Michael Chandler ... Katie Vlietstra Wonnenberg of Public Private Strategies … Meta’s Monique Dorsainvil … Pete Snyder … former Rep. Mike Doyle (D-Pa.) … former Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval … Dan Tomanelli … Felix Warren Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from the Brennan Center for Justice: In response to a cascade of ethics scandals laying bare a system in which Supreme Court justices wield tremendous power for decades with little accountability, President Biden has called for 18-year term limits and a binding code of ethics. These reforms have bipartisan support among a majority of Americans. Congress must take action to establish 18-year term limits and bring regular turnover to the bench. Doing so would save the Court from itself, helping to drain the toxicity from the confirmation process and restore balance to the bench. These are conservative ideas, resting on a foundational premise of accountability: nobody should hold too much public power for too long. The result would be a Court that better reflects American values. To learn more about the constitutionality of term limits, visit the Brennan Center’s term limits resources. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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