| | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | Presented by the Brennan Center for Justice | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | VEEPSTAKES — Reuters’ Nandita Bose reports that VP KAMALA HARRIS’ running-mate decision is down to Pennsylvania Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO and Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ. A CHAOTIC DAY — Markets have fallen significantly on U.S. recession fears, with the three big indexes all down more than 2 percent. … Bangladeshi PM SHEIKH HASINA fled the country amid massive protests. … The U.S. officially withdrew from its last military base in Niger, despite growing violent extremism. … The Middle East is on edge for Iranian and Hezbollah retaliation against Israel. A DIFFERENT KIND OF BEAR MARKET — The Manhattan DA’s office told Pix11News that ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. could potentially face charges for leaving a dead bear in Central Park.
|  Though it’s far from St. Louis, the Israel-Hamas war has become a particular flashpoint in Rep. Cori Bush’s (D-Mo.) race against Wesley Bell. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | PRIMARY COLORS — Voters in four states will take to the polls tomorrow for a number of contested and consequential primary elections, but none may be higher-profile than Rep. CORI BUSH’s (D-Mo.) fight for renomination. Though it’s far from St. Louis, the Israel-Hamas war has become a particular flashpoint in Bush’s race against WESLEY BELL, the progressive county prosecutor supported by AIPAC. After GEORGE LATIMER defeated Rep. JAMAAL BOWMAN in a New York primary, pro-Israel groups are looking to take down their second “Squad” member. But Bush isn’t backing down from her pro-Palestinian stance: Talking to NYT’s Annie Karni, she wouldn’t definitively call Hamas a terrorist group and noted that both they and the Israeli military have hurt people. She said that although she thought Hamas’ actions qualified them as a terrorist organization, she didn’t know. “We were called terrorists during Ferguson,” Bush said. “I’m not trying to compare us, but that taught me to be careful about labeling if I don’t know.” Her campaign later walked back her comment, saying she knows they’re a terrorist group. The irony is that the war, which has helped make this one of the priciest House primaries of all time (thanks to more than $8 million in ads from pro-Israel groups), is far from many voters’ top priority in the district. Actual voters say they’re mostly focused on inflation and crime. Bell’s own messaging emphasizes domestic issues, tagging Bush as ineffective and criticizing her vote against the bipartisan infrastructure law. Apart from the Middle East, policy differences between Bush and Bell are few. Instead, this is a debate “over political style,” WaPo’s Abbie Cheeseman and Marianna Sotomayor report: “Should voters here elect a candidate who will vote with the Democratic Party, or one who will challenge its direction?” While Bell has support from important local leaders, Bush maintains that she can’t be bought and will stand up for her beliefs despite outside pressures. She’s been down in the polls, so she may need a surprise to win. Otherwise, a once-rising progressive star in the Democratic Party, who brings personal experiences of homelessness, abortion and activism that most lawmakers lack, could see her career cut short. More big races to watch:
- The Missouri Republican gubernatorial primary pits competing visions of the GOP’s future against each other: Lt. Gov. MIKE KEHOE would keep the state on an establishment conservative path, while Secretary of State JAY ASHCROFT or state Sen. BILL EIGEL could push it to the vanguard of the country’s aggressive right wing. The race to replace Ashcroft features some controversial characters, too.
- The Washington gubernatorial primary between AG BOB FERGUSON and former Rep. DAVE REICHERT has gotten intense, AP’s Hallie Golden reports from Seattle. Reichert is running to Ferguson’s right, but he has a shot to win even in liberal Washington. Under the state’s primary system, both are expected to advance to November.
- In Johnson County, Kansas — the state’s biggest — GOP Sheriff CALVIN HAYDEN’s focus on election fraud could make him vulnerable, AP’s John Hanna reports from De Soto.
Good Monday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com. WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — GENE SPERLING is leaving his top role as a White House senior adviser to join the Harris campaign as a senior economic adviser on the policy team, AP’s Josh Boak reports. DNC COUNTDOWN — The Democratic National Convention is just two weeks away. Are you headed to Chicago? Join POLITICO for live, in-person conversations with the Democratic Party’s biggest newsmakers. Sign up to get notified when registration opens
| | | | A message from the Brennan Center for Justice: Supreme Court reform is an issue whose time has come. Public trust in the Supreme Court has plunged to the lowest level ever recorded, and term limits for the justices has broad bipartisan support. Congress must take action to establish 18-year term limits and bring regular turnover to the bench. The result? A Court with more legitimacy that better reflects American values. No one should have that much power for life. Learn more about term limits. | | | | | 9 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | |  Russell Vought could play a major role in a second Trump administration. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo | 1. 2025 DREAMING: RUSSELL VOUGHT and Project 2025 are laying the groundwork for an aggressive retooling of the federal government, which he describes in often martial terms, if DONALD TRUMP returns to the White House, AP’s Richard Lardner reports in a profile. His “180-Day Transition Playbook” (hey, that’s our name) would allow Trump’s team to hit the ground running, and Vought is seen as a possibility for White House chief of staff. Coming from a working-class, devoutly Christian Connecticut upbringing, Vought became a prominent fiscal hawk and GOP player in Washington — and he’s a true believer in the cause of tackling the federal government and political opponents. In the courts, opponents of a second Trump administration would start much better prepared to fight his policies in court than they were the first time around, CNN’s Tierney Sneed reports. With Project 2025 laying out a number of potential plans, groups like the American Civil Liberties Union are readying to erect roadblocks to a massive immigration crackdown or an effort to undo civil service protections for federal workers. 2. DEMOCRACY WATCH: “With voting under attack, Arizona schools don’t want to be polling locations,” by WaPo’s Yvonne Wingett Sanchez, Clara Ence Morse and Hannah Natanson in Phoenix: “Heightened school safety protocols and sustained attacks on voting systems and the people who run them — largely by Trump and his supporters — have prompted school leaders across America in both red and blue states to close their doors to the democratic process … The challenge has been especially acute in Arizona, where Trump’s narrow loss in 2020 inspired ceaseless conspiracies.” 3. NOTABLE ENDORSEMENT: UNITE HERE, the big union for workers in the hospitality industry, threw its weight behind Harris today, AP’s Josh Boak reports. They’re committing to 3.3 million door knocks in battleground states by November. It’s no surprise that the union is boosting the Democrat — despite Trump’s proposal to do away with taxes on tips — but Harris’ campaign will especially hope that it helps with turnout. 4. WHERE THE ELECTION WILL BE WON: “Harris once wanted to ban fracking. Trump wants voters in energy-rich Pennsylvania to remember,” by AP’s Marc Levy in Harrisburg: “Attacking Harris over fracking is reminiscent of Republican efforts to turn union workers against Democrat HILLARY CLINTON in 2016. In tenor and scale, Trump’s overtures to the industry have echoed the unfulfilled promises he made to save the coal industry during his first campaign. … Democrats in Pennsylvania … have successfully run on getting tough on fracking through stronger regulation. They shun talk of a fracking ban.”
| | | | During unprecedented times, POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy. Live briefings, policy trackers, and and people intelligence secures your seat at the table. Learn more. | | | | | 5. IMMIGRATION FILES: WSJ’s Michelle Hackman and Santiago Pérez have an interesting deep dive into how the U.S. and Mexico slashed the number of border crossings this year, which has succeeded “beyond anything the U.S. could have predicted, at least so far.” Stepped-up Mexican enforcement repeatedly forced asylum seekers south, Chutes and Ladders-style, which prompted many discouraged migrants to return to South America. President JOE BIDEN’s crackdown on asylum had an impact, too. Politically, Democrats will benefit from fewer scenes of humanitarian crisis and chaos at the border. But Venezuelans, in particular, remain a looming X factor: Thousands still show up in Mexico each day. 6. KNOWING SUSIE WILES: “The Woman Who Engineered Donald Trump’s Rise From the Ashes of 2020,” by Meridith McGraw in Vanity Fair, excerpted from her new book, “Trump in Exile” ($32): “[I]t was because she was a successful person in her own right that Wiles was of particular value to Trump. She didn’t need him the way that so many in his orbit did — often desperately. And because she wasn’t a sycophant, she seemed to understand him with a rare clarity, as the strange and complicated human he was. Unlike so many others around Trump, she wasn’t afraid to tell him bracing truths that he didn’t want to hear.” 7. PAGING JACK BERGMAN: As the FDA weighs whether to approve MDMA as a treatment for PTSD, WSJ’s Liz Essley Whyte turns up concerning new details from the scientific studies, which prompted concerns among FDA staffers and outside advisers. Multiple subjects in the studies say the results didn’t capture their worsening suicidal ideation, that they felt under pressure to deliver positive results, and that they could figure out whether they were taking the drug or a placebo. 8. FOR YOUR RADAR: Bloomberg said today that they’d taken “disciplinary action” against multiple staffers involved in the much-criticized move last week to break news of the EVAN GERSHKOVICH prisoner swap before it was concluded. Per N.Y. Mag’s Charlotte Klein, star White House reporter JENNIFER JACOBS was fired. The note from JOHN MICKLETHWAIT 9. AFTERNOON READ: “What happens when everyone decides they need a gun?” by Vox’s Marin Cogan: “The beginning of the 2020s marked a significant shift in America’s relationship with guns and gun violence. The Covid-19 lockdowns, combined with nationwide protests and a police reckoning following the killing of GEORGE FLOYD, worsened an ongoing breakdown of trust in institutions and society. … One in 20 American adults bought a gun for the first time between March 2020 and March 2022 … We are living through an inflection point in America’s long love affair with guns.”
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Usha Vance dismissed concerns about husband JD’s “childless cat ladies” comment. Ruben Gallego and Kari Lake are having a debate debate. Bon Iver will perform at Kamala Harris’ Wisconsin rally. BOOK CLUB — Nicol Turner Lee is publishing a new book tomorrow from Brookings Press, “Digitally Invisible: How the Internet is Creating the New Underclass” ($27), which she tells us examines “how persistent partisanship has made it harder to close connectivity gaps.” OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a birthday bash for Emil Hill at the Rosewood Graham hotel yesterday afternoon: Nicole Venable, Ken Sain, George Walker, Héctor Sánchez, Stephanie Polis, Michelle Hudgins and Tiffany Cross. TRANSITIONS — Allison Starmann is joining the American Beverage Association as general counsel and EVP for legal and regulatory affairs. She previously was general counsel and corporate secretary at the American Chemistry Council, and is a Bush EPA alum. … Disha Banik is now head of partnerships, reports and comms for the U.N. World Food Programme for the Republic of the Congo. She previously was policy adviser for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. … Kaleigh Benedict will be director of government affairs for Rochester Regional Health. She previously was district director for Rep. Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.). WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Kevin Petroccione, legislative director for Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), and Emily Petroccione, senior program manager at Edelman Global Advisory, welcomed Abigail Claire on July 28. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Friday’s Playbook PM included an incorrect pronoun for Ami Fields-Meyer, whose pronouns are he/him.
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