| | | | |  | | By Eric Bazail-Eimil, Joe Gould and Miles J. Herszenhorn | |  Iran has telegraphed for days that it will attack Israel in revenge for its assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week. | Vahid Salemi/AP | Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Among Middle East watchers in Washington, two scenarios are emerging for what an expected Iranian retaliation against Israel this week could ultimately look like. It’s unlikely that Iran will repeat the same kind of attack it launched against Israel on April 13, which mostly relied on drones and some missile strikes that were quickly repelled by the U.S., Israeli and neighboring militaries, according to Rear Adm. MARK MONTGOMERY, a retired military officer who previously served as policy director for the Senate Armed Services Committee. “The herd was thinned pretty extensively by the U.S. Air Force and other nations before they got to the Jordanian airspace, directly in front of Israel, where Israel handled the rest of it,” said Montgomery, now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. But Montgomery expects strikes from Iranian territory are still on the table. He said he could see Iran use intermediate-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles against Israeli targets. Iran has telegraphed for days that it will attack Israel in revenge for its assassination of Hamas leader ISMAIL HANIYEH in Tehran last week. And indicators are that an attack will occur soon, as President JOE BIDEN convenes his national security team in the situation room today and Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and his cabinet hunker down. The second scenario is an attack mostly involving missile barrages from proxies in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, minimizing the amount of time Israel and allies have to preemptively shoot down those targets. JONATHAN RUHE, who leads foreign policy work at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, told NatSec Daily that such an attack would be designed to overwhelm Israel’s defenses and give Israel’s military less time to respond. “Iran, this time, is trying to figure out a way to impose some actual, real costs on Israel, to compel Israel to stop taking out Hezbollah targets or doing things like taking out Haniyeh in Tehran,” he said. Tehran has betrayed little about what its desired punishment for Israel would look like. Ruhe noted that Tehran’s signals in April gave the Israelis ample time to respond and argued Iran won’t look to make that mistake twice. The U.S. is voicing confidence that Israel will be able to repel whatever Iran throws at it in the coming days. Deputy national security adviser JON FINER told CNN on Sunday that “Israel faced an extraordinary threat on April 13” and added “the United States and other partners and allies mustered to help Israel defend against and defeat that threat.” The U.S. expects that regional partners will come to Israel’s aid again, regardless of Tehran’s threats. But that assistance might not be as public as it was on April 13, when the Jordanian and Saudi militaries shot down drones, in part because of regional frustrations with Israel over the Haniyeh killing and the likelihood that this attack could be designed to avoid their air defenses. It’s also unclear there exists a diplomatic off-ramp at this point. House Armed Services Committee ranking member Rep. ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.) said on CNN this morning that officials have been pushing for “calm and peace and not an overreaction” while also making sure there’s enough of a military presence in the region to support Israel, protect U.S. troops and convince Iran and its proxies not to escalate. But Smith acknowledged it’s “a very nervous situation” with “a huge risk of miscalculation.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: What matters to us is protecting what matters most.
Lockheed Martin’s mission is to protect the ones who serve in their service to the nation. It’s why we lead the way in developing new defense tech and pushing the capabilities of what’s possible to bring security to an unsecure world. Learn more. | | | | | MADURO WON’T BLINK: Venezuela’s government isn’t backing down in the face of increased protests and international pressure to release full and comprehensive election results from the country’s contested presidential elections. The European Union joined the chorus of international observers decrying Venezuela’s election results, saying in a statement that “without evidence to support them, the results published on 2nd August … cannot be recognised.” Meanwhile, news outlets have independently confirmed that the opposition’s self-published election results are accurate and that Venezuelan President NICOLÁS MADURO lost the election. The opposition, which managed to collect more than 80 percent of the precinct-level receipts from the country’s polling places, published its own version of the results last week showing that their candidate, EDMUNDO GONZÁLEZ, won twice as many votes as Maduro. Maduro and his allies, however, are staying put. Venezuelan police have arrested thousands of protesters and Maduro has sparred with critics, including Argentine President JAVIER MILEI and tech mogul ELON MUSK. The Venezuelan government is also promising to restrict social media, citing national security. SWAP SHOCKWAVES: The ramifications from the historic, multi-country prisoner exchange between the West and Moscow that freed 16 people from Russian penal colonies continued to be felt on Monday. The swap freed several leading Russia opposition figures — including Washington Post contributor VLADIMIR KARA-MURZA, ILYA YASHIN, ANDREI PIVOVAROV — and has some in Washington hopeful it will mark a new beginning for a movement that grew despondent after ALEXEI NAVALNY’S death in February, Miles also reports. Several opposition leaders who were sent to Germany in the exchange, however, claimed that they did not consent to leave Russia and were exiled despite their best efforts to remain in their home countries, according to our own EVA HARTOG and NETTE NÖSTLINGER. But for Americans who are still detained inside of Russia — like Marc Fogel, 63-year-old former teacher at the Anglo-American School of Moscow — Thursday’s swap dashed their hopes of being released from prison in the short-term future, Eva also reports. It was also a chance for the various governments involved in the deal to claim victory and spin the exchange for their own political purposes, our own NAHAL TOOSI, ERIN BANCO and JÜRGEN KLÖCKNER reported over the weekend. For the Biden administration, bringing three U.S. citizens home politicians just months ahead of November’s presidential election was a huge victory. Meanwhile, Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN was able to demonstrate to allies that he will not abandon those who risk their lives to do his bidding. REBEL VICTORY IN MYANMAR: A rebel group in Myanmar took control of a military base near the border of China over the weekend, the New York Times’ VIVEK SHANKAR reports. The advance comes amid several months of advances for the rebel groups, which has led Myanmar’s military junta to impose a mandatory draft. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | | | During unprecedented times, POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy. Live briefings, policy trackers, and and people intelligence secures your seat at the table. Learn more. | | | | | | | | | HARRIS’ INTERSTELLAR DIPLOMACY: Vice President KAMALA HARRIS has become something of a “space aficionado” since taking office, and no we’re not referring to that one ballgown that drew Star Wars comparisons. As our own JOSHUA POSANER and MATT BERG report, Harris, who has led the National Space Council, has been a fierce advocate of the Artemis program that hopes to achieve another lunar landing this decade. She’s also been a critical diplomat in getting countries to join in the Artemis program’s plans in the face of increased space diplomacy competition from China, which wants to build a base on the moon. Her work earned her praise from NASA Director BILL NELSON, who said “I had lengthy talks with her about space” and called the vice president “a space aficionado.” LIGHTHIZER’S PLANS: Former President DONALD TRUMP’s top trade adviser is plotting his next moves in case his boss returns to the White House, our own GAVIN BADE reported Sunday. As Gavin writes, former U.S. Trade Representative ROBERT LIGHTHIZER, who built bipartisan relationships during the first Trump administration as he pursued new protectionist trade policies, is a contender to reprise his role in a second Trump administration or become Trump’s Commerce or Treasury secretary. That makes the trade guru a rare player in Trump’s orbit, as a potential repeat Cabinet member who made a point not to seek the spotlight during the first Trump presidency.
| | | HARRIS’ HACKER FRIENDS: Harris’ presidential campaign is getting a boost from former cyber officials who plan to rally support for her at hacker conferences this week. As our colleagues at Weekly Cybersecurity report, cyber heavyweights are raising tens of thousands of dollars to support the likely Democratic nominee and organizing a major fundraiser on the sidelines of this week’s DEF CON and Black Hat hacker conferences in Las Vegas. They expect to raise $150,000 this cycle, according to JAKE BRAUN, a former White House acting principal deputy national cyber director and one of the organizers of the fundraiser. Harris, who worked on some cyber legislation as a U.S. senator, paid attention to the findings of DEF CON’s hack-a-thons. In 2018, she organized a bipartisan letter urging a major electronic voting machine manufacturer to take seriously the vulnerabilities exposed during a voting machine hacking contest at DEF CON's Voting Village, which has sought to identify security issues in voting technology. That move earned her credibility, per Braun. The hope, Braun explained, is that a “future Harris administration keeps research waivers top of mind” — referring to the DMCA’s anti-circumvention provisions that allow researchers to examine and test the security of electronic voting systems — and remains engaged on cyber issues going forward.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | AU REVOIR, AGADEZ: The U.S. officially withdrew from the Agadez drone base in Niger, the Pentagon and the Nigerien defense ministry announced today. In a joint statement, the two governments said the U.S. completed its withdrawal of personnel and assets from the air base in the sub-Saharan country ahead of schedule. “Coordination will continue between U.S. and Nigerien armed forces over the coming weeks to ensure the full withdrawal is complete as planned,” they continued. Earlier this year, Niger ordered the U.S. to withdraw from its bases in its former ally’s territory after talks between the U.S. and a junta backed by the Russian paramilitary group Wagner broke down. The closure of the Agadez base, once a linchpin in Washington’s counterterrorism efforts in Africa, comes as the U.S. has experienced setbacks in recent years and struggled to compete with Russia and China in providing African countries security guarantees and desired infrastructure investments.
| | MDMA FOR PTSD: Bipartisan groups of representatives and senators signed letters to Biden Food and Drug Administration Commissioner ROBERT CALIFF calling on the agency to focus on “clinical and scientific evidence” and not external criticism that is unfounded in science as it weighs whether to approve MDMA-assisted therapy to treat veterans with post-traumatic stress disorder, our own ERIN SCHUMAKER reports. Between the two chambers, 80 lawmakers signed onto the letters that called on the FDA to conduct an extensive and unbiased review of whether MDMA-AT could benefit veterans and reduce suicide rates. “Scientific evidence should not be ignored in favor of those who have been on a mission to discredit this promising treatment at all costs – especially when that would come at the cost of our servicemembers and veterans,” the House letter stated. NOT USING THE T-WORD: Rep. CORI BUSH (D-Mo.) declined to call Hamas a terrorist group even as she faces Democratic primary challenge fueled by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a pro-Israel group that has sought to unseat Israel’s most outspoken critics, The New York Times’ ANNIE KARNI reports. Bush cited her own experience being labeled as a terrorist while organizing protests in Ferguson, Missouri after the police killing of Michael Brown, an unarmed Black teenager. “We were called terrorists during Ferguson,” Bush said. “Have they hurt people? Absolutely. Has the Israeli military hurt people? Absolutely.” Bush’s primary is being closely watched after Rep. JAMAAL BOWMAN (D-N.Y.), a fellow “Squad” member, lost his primary after AIPAC poured more than $14 million into the campaign to oust Bowman over his stance on Israel.
| | BRITS BIG MAD AT MUSK: No. 10 Downing Street is not amused at tech mogul Musk’s comments about ongoing anti-immigrant race riots in the United Kingdom, our own ANDREW McDONALD reports. A spokesperson for Prime Minister KEIR STARMER said there was “no justification” for Musk’s comments, which saw the controversial billionaire write on X that “civil war is inevitable” in reference to a wave of violent protests across the United Kingdom following the stabbing death of three girls in a dance class in Southport. The U.K. is investigating whether foreign malign actors are helping spread disinformation and stoke anti-immigrant race riots across the country, our own MATT HONEYCOMBE-FOSTER and Andrew report. Fake news outlets tied to Russia have claimed that the killer was an immigrant seeking asylum in the U.K. and far-right influencers like ANDREW TATE have amplified those claims, which British authorities say are false.
| | | |   | | | | | — SEAN SAVETT was named acting spokesperson and director of press at the National Security Council, NatSec Daily has learned. Savett, who has worked for the NSC since 2021 and served as deputy spokesperson and lead spokesperson on Russia and Ukraine, will step into the role vacated by ADRIENNE WATSON, who is leaving the White House to advise the Democratic National Committee. — Bangladesh’s prime minister SHEIKH HASINA resigned and fled the country today after a month of major and violent student protests in the South Asian country. Hasina, who has led Bangladesh since 2009, has been accused of increased authoritarianism.
| | — MARK MILLEY and ERIC SCHMIDT, Foreign Affairs: America isn’t ready for the wars of the future — JOSH ROGIN, The Washington Post: Biden must not forget the Americans imprisoned unjustly in China — The Editors, National Review: The 9/11 terrorists should have been brought to justice long ago
| | — The Wilson Center, 10:30 a.m.: U.S.-Africa relations. — Washington Post Live, 12 p.m.: Election security, disinformation and threats to democracy. — The Wilson Center, 3 p.m.: Organized crime and violence in Mexico: Considerations for future nearshoring foreign direct investment. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who won’t come to our aid while Matt is on vacation. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, the most dependable ally in the world.
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