| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg, Nahal Toosi and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin arrives before President Joe Biden speaks at a news conference following the NATO Summit in Washington on July 11, 2024. | Matt Rourke/AP | With help from Daniella Cheslow, Maggie Miller and Miles J. Herszenhorn The Aspen Security Forum gets underway today, in the shadow of the Republican National Convention and the maelstrom caused by the attempted assassination of DONALD TRUMP. Given the volume of news, the forum’s organizers hope that it can offer national security professionals a calm retreat to discuss, on a bipartisan basis, critical challenges facing the United States and the rest of the world. Last year, in one of our sister newsletters, we laid out some questions Aspen moderators should ask their high-flying panelists. (Some of those questions are still worth asking!) This year, we’re offering up some ideas for panel topics. It’s not too late to adjust the agenda, so take a look:
- Is the Secret Service prepared for future threats? It’s an inescapable question given the weekend shooting that left a U.S. presidential candidate with a bloodied ear. U.S. Secret Service Director KIM CHEATLE was listed as a panelist at Aspen before she pulled out, but another top USSS official will speak on the “Phishing, Fakes, and Fraud: Tackling Transnational Crime and Enhancing Global Security” panel. There are other panels that will likely get into the issue of domestic unrest in the United States. But one focusing on the field readiness of this undercovered agency could be clarifying.
- Is the national security establishment too old? Given the growing concerns about President JOE BIDEN’s age and fitness, a discussion about whether an octogenarian should have control over the nuclear launch codes could come up. It’s not a good look when you mistakenly mix-up the Ukrainian and Russian leaders, and the international community is scrutinizing Biden’s capabilities. And Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN is in his 70s and has had his share of health problems. Now is a good time to have a discussion about age and those at the forefront of national security.
- What is the United States’ long-term plan for Haiti? Kenyan forces intended to quell violent gangs in Haiti’s capital are in the early stages of their mission, which will include police from other countries. The U.S. is providing some $300 million for the mission — including weapons and vehicles — but there’s no exact timeline for how long the mission will take, or how much money the U.S. will dedicate to it. The only panel that seems likely to mention Haiti includes SOUTHCOM Commander Gen. LAURA RICHARDSON on Thursday, but it’s about “Opportunities and Challenges in the Western Hemisphere.” That’s a big region to cover in one panel…
- A panel about Africa. Seriously. Anything about a continent that has more than a fourth of the world’s countries but zero direct mention in this year’s forum agenda. One potential angle: Is it possible to curb the coup trend in African countries, and how? Another: Why isn’t Africa a bigger topic in the American natsec community, despite the U.S. push to counter China and Russia on the continent?
- Do the Leahy Laws always apply to Israel? The Leahy Laws ban U.S. assistance to foreign military units that commit human rights violations like torture, extrajudicial killings, disappearances or rape. Critics, including an architect of the law TIM RIESER, say “abuses” by Israel against Palestinians are rarely punished by the U.S. despite the law. Israel will undoubtedly be a major topic at Aspen, but there’s no sign that this ever-relevant topic will come up. On a related note, does the U.S. still want Israel to look into reports of mass graves in Khan Younis?
| | IRANIAN ASSASSINATION PLOT? The Secret Service ramped up security for Trump after U.S. intelligence received information about an Iranian assassination plot, CNN reports. There’s no indication the plot is related to the attack on Saturday against Trump, multiple people briefed on the matter emphasized to CNN. But the knowledge raises new questions about the shooting and the security lapses that allowed a 20-year-old shooter to access a nearby rooftop and fire at the then-presumptive Republican nominee. It is also unclear whether Trump’s campaign knew about the potential threat. The campaign directed CNN to the Secret Service. Iran has previously been accused of plotting to kill former Trump officials JOHN BOLTON and MIKE POMPEO. Meanwhile, House Republicans are quickly ramping up their sprawling investigation into the assassination attempt — with a GOP chair scheduling a public hearing with a trio of top officials next week, our own JORDAIN CARNEY reports. Read: ‘There’s more to come’: What the Trump shooting says about domestic extremism by our own ERIN BANCO DONATIONS TO BLOCKING AID: The U.S. and Israel have allowed tax-deductible donations to far-right Israeli groups who have blocked aid deliveries into Gaza, according to a joint report from The Associated Press and Israeli investigative site Shomrim. The groups have reportedly raised more than $200,000 from donors in the U.S. and Israel, while they’ve prevented aid from getting into the territory where about 500,000 Palestinians are facing “catastrophic” hunger levels, according to the U.N. Advocacy groups say that incentivizing donations by making them tax-deductible runs is hypocritical of the United States and Israel, as the Biden administration and Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU say they want food, water and medicine to rush into Gaza. But donations to the far-right groups have continued flowing, even after the U.S. imposed sanctions on one of them. Israeli officials didn’t respond to the outlets’ request for comment. The State Department didn’t comment on the specific donations, instead saying that it’s committed to ensuring aid deliveries. SINWAR FEELS THE HEAT: Hamas leader YAHYA SINWAR is coming under pressure from his military commanders to accept a cease-fire deal with Israel, CIA Director BILL BURNS told a closed-door conference over the weekend, per CNN’s ALEX MARQUARDT. Sinwar isn’t “concerned with his mortality” but is facing blame for the immense humanitarian toll Israel’s military operation has taken on Gaza, a person who attended the conference told the outlet. EVAN’S TRIAL MOVED UP: The private trial of Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH — imprisoned in Russia on espionage charges — is scheduled to resume Thursday, weeks earlier than intended following a request from his defense team, WSJ’s GEORGI KANTCHEV reports. IT’S TUESDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Lockheed Martin is Leading in Next-Gen Radar Technology
The U.S. Army’s new Sentinel A4 radar—a revolutionary leap from the legacy Sentinel A3—will counter cruise missiles, unmanned aerial systems, rotary wing and fixed wing threats, offering flexible mission performance and growth potential. Learn more. | | | | | VANCE NOT MAKING FRIENDS: Recent remarks from Sen. J.D. VANCE (R-Ohio) have already drawn criticism from a pair of countries, following his appointment as Trump’s running mate. Speaking on Fox News on Monday, Vance called for U.S.-brokered negotiations to end the war between Russia and Ukraine “so America can focus on the real issue, which is China. That’s the biggest threat to our country and we’re completely distracted from it” by Ukraine, our own PHELIM KINE writes in. Beijing didn’t take the bait. “We are always opposed to making China an issue in U.S. elections,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson LIN JIAN today. Closer to Washington, British Deputy Prime Minister ANGELA RAYNER criticized Vance for calling the U.K. an “Islamist” country following the Labour Party’s landslide win earlier this month, our own ANDREW McDONALD reports. Vance told a conference that he had been discussing with a friend which country would be the first “truly Islamist country that will get a nuclear weapon … and we sort of finally decided maybe it's actually the U.K., since Labour just took over.” In a televised interview today, Rayner said Vance has said “quite a lot of fruity things in the past,” and added, “I don't recognize that characterization.” But don’t expect Vance’s place on the GOP ticket to color the special relationship all that much. Rayner emphasized that Downing Street will work with whoever wins the November election. And Britain’s new foreign secretary DAVID LAMMY has previously praised Vance and called him a “friend.” Read: What J.D. Vance really thinks about Europe by our own SEB STARCEVIC
| | | | Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more. | | | | | | | | THREAT FROM ABROAD: Foreign adversaries seem to have wasted little time spreading disinformation following Trump’s attempted assassination, our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in. CHRIS KREBS, former director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and current chief intelligence and public policy officer at cybersecurity group SentinelOne, said on today’s episode of POLITICO Tech that his current team is tracking Russian disinformation efforts linked to the attack. They’re seeing movement from one Russian-linked group known as Doppelganger in particular, a massive network that has been tracked targeting Western audiences in recent years: “It seems that Doppelganger doesn’t work on Sundays, so they took Sunday off while everybody was trying to figure out what was going on, but man, they came full-force today,” Krebs said. His team saw the group “pushing content around democracy under attack and some allegations that the Biden administration or the Biden campaign really fomented the attempted assassination.”
| | ISRAEL’S OVERWHELMING FORCE: Israel dropped eight tons of bombs in order to eliminate a top Hamas commander who eluded repeated strikes from the Israel Defense Forces, The Wall Street Journal’s DOV LIEBER, FATIMA ABDULKARIM and LARA SELIGMAN report. Israel’s military said it attacked a fenced Hamas compound and took steps to minimize civilian casualties in their strike targeting MOHAMMED DEIF, who they are almost certain was killed in the attack. But the 2,000-pound precision-guided bombs, fitted with JDAM guidance kits to improve their accuracy, reduced the site to a crater and left hundreds of Palestinian civilians dead or wounded. The number of large bombs used surprised analysis. “It’s pretty unusual,” said AMIR AVIVI, a former deputy commander of the Israeli military’s Gaza division. “It’s definitely a very big and unusual one.” BRITAIN’S MILITARY REBUILDING: The U.K. will review the state of its armed forces as it looks to respond to threats from Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, Reuters’ SARAH YOUNG reports. The British government tapped former NATO Secretary General and U.K. Defense Minister GEORGE ROBERTSON to lead the drafting of a report on the readiness of the British military in the face of mounting threats from the “deadly quartet” of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. Robertson’s review, which will be released in the first half of 2025, comes as British Prime Minister KEIR STARMER warns that the country’s armed forces are "hollowed out” and calls for responsible and sustainable defense spending. Read: Europe eyes Sweden’s conscription model to solve troop shortage by our own CHARLIE DUXBURY
| | | |   | | | | | BOB’S GUILTY: Former Senator Foreign Relations Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) was found guilty in his corruption trial, a historic verdict marking a dramatic downfall for New Jersey’s senior senator who was one of the most influential people in Washington, our own DANIEL HAN and RY RIVARD report. The jury found Menendez guilty on all 16 counts after a two-month trial on charges that all but ended his political career. Federal prosecutors accused Menendez of bribery, acting as a foreign agent for Egypt, obstruction of justice, extortion and conspiring to commit those crimes. Now that he’s a convicted felon, Menendez is facing immense pressure from colleagues — including more than half of Senate Democrats — to resign. Read: Bob Menendez is guilty. Here’s what happens next. by our own SAMANTHA LATSON HELICOPTER DOC HANDOVER: House Republicans are threatening to subpoena top DOD officials if they don’t provide material related to crashes of Osprey helicopters used by the U.S. military, NBC News’ LAURA STRICKLER and COURTNEY KUBE report. Today, Republicans on the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability sent a letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, saying that they requested documents about the troubled Osprey program in December — a month after a helicopter crash that killed eight U.S. service members off the coast of Japan — but have faced “significant delays and hurdles” in getting the docs. The Pentagon has so far only provided heavily redacted documents, the lawmakers argue. They’re asking for information about safety investigations for every major crash of the aircraft since 1991. The DOD briefly banned the helicopter from flights after the crash due to safety concerns.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | HOTLINE FLING: Tensions between China and the Philippines have gotten so rough that the countries are setting up a direct hotline between their leaders to prevent future confrontations, according to highlights of an agreement seen by The Associated Press’ JIM GOMEZ. For months, Manila has accused Beijing of hostile actions in the South China Sea, while China has returned accusations of encroachment by Philippine ships. The two nations have set up direct lines of communication at lower levels in the past, but the new setup suggests a deeper effort to avoid any wider conflict from breaking out. DPRK’S MAN IN HAVANA: South Korea’s spy agency confirmed reports today that a senior North Korean diplomat stationed in Cuba defected to South Korea in November, The Associated Press’ HYUNG-JIN KIM reports. The defection of RI IL KYU, Pyongyang’s counselor of political affairs in Havana, to South Korea, represents a major blow to the Hermit Kingdom. Up until his defection, Ri was instrumental in blocking the establishment of diplomatic relations between Seoul and Havana, which ultimately occurred this February.
| | — JEFF FLAKE, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey, will step down from his post on Sept. 1. — NASA Press Secretary FAITH McKIE is starting a detail as deputy press secretary in the Vice President KAMALA HARRIS’ Office at the White House. (Fun fact: She was tapped for a detail in the VP’s office two years ago, too.) MEIRA BERNSTEIN is NASA’s acting press secretary, in addition to her role as senior adviser for communications. — KURT VOGEL, associate administrator for the Space Technology Mission Directorate at NASA, is retiring from the agency. NASA Langley Research Center Director CLAYTON TURNER will become the acting associate administrator for STMD, and NASA Glenn Research Center Deputy Director DAWN SCHAIBLE will become the acting Langley Center director.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Lockheed Martin is delivering advanced radar capabilities primed for the future
We've established a legacy of producing high-performing solid-state radars, giving forces the range and precision they need to defend against advanced threats. Learn more. | | | | | — OONA HATHAWAY, Foreign Affairs: For the rest of the world, the U.S. president has always been above the law — MAURICIO CLAVER-CARONE, Americas Quarterly: Trump’s vision: “Make the Americas Grow Again” — DAN GRAZIER, JULIA GLEDHILL, and GEOFF WILSON, Stimson Center: Current defense plans require unsustainable future spending
| | — The Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 9 a.m.: The new intelligence community. — The Peterson Institute for International Economics, 9 a.m.: The impact of sanctions on the Russian economy. — Aspen Institute, 10 a.m.: 2024 Aspen Security Forum. — The Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: Book discussion about “Our Future: A Green Manifesto for Latin America and the Caribbean.” — The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 10 a.m.: Threat intelligence forum. — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 12 p.m.: U.S. perspectives and priorities for this September's UN Summit of the Future. — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: The importance of national resilience: Implications for Taiwan. Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who is aging rapidly and unable to perform her duties. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is in his prime years. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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