Tuesday, July 16, 2024

Where the Trump team sees the map expanding

Presented by ExxonMobil: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington.
Jul 16, 2024 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Garrett Ross

Presented by ExxonMobil

THE CATCH-UP

BREAKING — AP: “U.S. Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) has been convicted of accepting bribes of cash, gold and a luxury car from three New Jersey businessmen.

BIG-PICTURE READ — “The Trump-Vance Ticket is a Repudiation of Free-Market Conservatism,” by Victoria Guida: “DONALD TRUMP’s choice of JD VANCE as his running mate suggests he is leaning harder into the economic policy instincts that helped land him his first term in 2016 and that he no longer feels the need to placate the type of free-market conservatives who have dominated the party for decades.”

AD-VANCE NOTICE — Our colleague Meridith McGraw shares an exclusive excerpt from her forthcoming book, “Trump in Exile,” ($32) featuring a timely readout on his new running mate: “How Donald Trump Learned to Love JD Vance”

In December 2021, Trump held a meeting with his political team to map out where the former president would dole out his endorsements for the 2022 midterms. At the time, Vance was struggling to break through in his Ohio Senate race. Trump called him “dead as a dog” during the discussions.

But over time, “Vance gained his trust and support with a mix of personal charms and well-timed connections — and by extolling the virtues of Trump’s brand of MAGA populism,” Meridith writes. “This is the story of how Trump first decided to endorse Vance — who once called him an ‘idiot’ and ‘unfit for our nation’s highest office’ — for Senate in 2022, and how the former Trump critic became one of his strongest supporters and, now, his running mate.”

BTW: For those wondering about how to refer to Trump’s new running mate, AP guidance is “JD” — no periods.

Former President Donald Trump raises his fist as he departs Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wis. during the first day of the Republican National Convention July 15, 2024.

Donald Trump's team sees an expanding battleground map for the former president this fall. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

THE NEW BATTLEGROUND MAP — Trump’s team has consistently pushed the idea that it can expand the battleground map in the presidential race. This morning TONY FABRIZIO, Trump’s top pollster, brought that message to Republicans gathered in Milwaukee.

Fabrizio dropped in to the Florida GOP’s breakfast today, where he listed out Minnesota, Virginia, New Jersey and New Mexico as toss ups, and brushed aside claims by Democrats that North Carolina and Arizona were in play for President JOE BIDEN, our colleague Kimberly Leonard reports.

“Those are states that we’re looking at,” he said, adding another dream get for Republicans: “And believe it or not, there’s another state up north called Maine.”

“One of the biggest factors on how competitive each state will be is who is allowed on the ballot, he explained, referring to independent ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. and other third party candidates.

Ad it up: “Fabrizio also boasted that Trump was ahead despite the fact that the campaign hasn’t done much TV ad spending — yet. ‘Get ready,’ he added, ‘they’re coming.’”

More reporting from Milwaukee:

  • Former SBA chief LINDA McMAHON said she’s “ready to serve” in a second Trump administration during an appearance at the CNN-POLITICO Grill this morning and said the business community should be feeling “very good” about Vance on the ticket, Jared Mitovich reports.
  • ERIC TRUMP made a surprise visit to the Florida GOP’s breakfast meeting, where he told the crowd that running mate shortlister Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) is an “incredible guy,” but that they couldn’t get around the residency issue, Kimberly Leonard reports. He also told the California GOP that people in the Golden State have bought more MAGA hats than anywhere else in the country, Melanie Mason notes.
  • The Vance buzz is buzzing: His 2016 memoir “Hillbilly Elegy” rose to the top of Amazon’s Best Sellers in Books and Netflix’s movie adaptation was also propelled to the No. 6 spot on its Top 10 Movies Today list, Isabella Ramírez notes. (On Netflix, it is currently just behind “Minions.”)
  • CHARLIE KIRK, a longtime advocate of Vance as VP, is broadcasting live from Turning Point’s stage outside the convention arena. “It’s a great day to be alive,” Kirk said this morning, praising Trump’s running mate. More from Natalie Allison 
  • SPOTTED: ASA HUTCHINSON, former governor of Arkansas and noted Trump critic, around the convention this morning, per Natalie.

Follow along with every update from the Republican National Convention with POLITICO’s live blog

HEY, BIG SPENDER — MARC ANDREESSEN and BEN HOROWITZ, who head up a highly influential eponymously named VC firm, “have told the firm’s employees in recent days they plan to make large donations to political action committees” supporting Trump, The Information’s Cory Weinberg and Kate Clark scoop.

GOOD VISUAL — “Who Is in Donald Trump’s Inner Circle? These Are His Closest Advisers,” by WSJ’s Vivian Salama and Kara Dapena

PRIME DAY READING — “Amazon Prime Day causes workplace injuries, Senate probe finds,” by WaPo’s Lauren Kaori Gurley and Caroline O'Donovan

Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at gross@politico.com.

 

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7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

President Joe Biden.

Democrats are still plotting behind the scenes to nudge Biden to drop his reelection bid. | Matt Rourke/AP

1. WILL HE STAY OR WILL HE GO?: “House Dems plot last-ditch effort to delay Biden nomination,” by Sarah Ferris, Elena Schneider and Jennifer Haberkorn: “Dozens of House Democrats are organizing a plan to speak out against their own party’s effort to seal President Joe Biden’s nomination sooner than originally planned, which they argue stifles the intense ongoing debate about his candidacy, according to a lawmaker involved in the effort.

“A drafted letter, circulated by Rep. JARED HUFFMAN (D-Calif.) and obtained by POLITICO, offers the first public signal from Democrats since the weekend’s attempted assassination on former President DONALD TRUMP that scores of their own members remain deeply unsettled about the future of Biden’s candidacy.”

The plan has long been to cement Biden as the Democratic nominee early, before the Democratic National Convention, and the party is still aiming to do that by the end of this month. Despite the “persistent doubts from within his party, some delegates involved with the behind-the-scene bureaucratic process are eager to end the public conversations about his future that are unfolding during a fiercely contested campaign,” NYT’s Lisa Lerer, Reid Epstein and Maggie Haberman report. That process kicks off this Friday at a rules committee meeting.

“Not everyone agrees: In a previously unreported move, a group of House Democrats who question whether he should forge ahead is trying to rally support for changing the nominating path to allow for potential challenges at the convention. Donors and prominent strategists have floated ideas that would open the door to other candidates, but party insiders have dismissed those proposals as fanciful.”

The band plays on: Rep. ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.), who is running for Senate and has so far resisted a public call for Biden to step aside, “warned during a private meeting with donors on Saturday that his party was likely to suffer overwhelming losses” if Biden remains the nominee, NYT’s Michael Schmidt and Mark Mazzetti report.

“If Mr. Biden remained, not only would he lose to former President Donald J. Trump, he could be enough of a drag on other Democratic candidates that the party would most likely lose the Senate and miss an opportunity to win control of the House, Mr. Schiff said at a fund-raiser in New York.” The fundraiser was held for Schiff and two other Senate hopefuls: Michigan Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN and Maryland’s ANGELA ALSOBROOKS.

2. BACK IN ACTION: Biden is hitting the campaign trail again today after a pause in light of the assassination attempt against Trump. Biden will sit for an interview with BET’s Ed Gordon, speak at the NAACP National Convention and take part in an economic summit with Rep. STEVEN HORSFORD (D-Nev.). The plan is to “focus on core issues like the economy and lowering housing costs, an attempt to reset the conversation after an extraordinary three weeks that has also included a dismal debate performance and calls from panicked Democrats to withdraw from the race,” NYT’s Zolan Kanno-Youngs writes.

“The trip will also provide Mr. Biden an opportunity to try to draw attention away from Republicans, who polls show are making gains with Black and Hispanic voters and are holding their national convention in Wisconsin this week, as he sells his vision for a second term.”

Related read: “For Biden, How to Cool the Temperature Without Freezing His Campaign,” by NYT’s Peter Baker

3. CASH DASH: The DNC is dropping a $15 million cash infusion into seven battleground states in hopes that a beefed-up ground game can help them overcome any concerns within the party about the top of the ticket weighing them down at the ballot. “The money, which will go directly to the Democrats’ state parties, will be used to open more field offices, expand data collection efforts and hire staff members to cover more terrain in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin,” NYT’s Nick Corasaniti reports. DNC Chair JAIME HARRISON noted that the spending amounts to the largest-ever investment at this stage of the campaign.

 

Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more.

 
 

4. ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT FALLOUT: “Trump Shooting Thrusts Role of Local Authorities Into Spotlight,” by WSJ’s Jan Wolfe and C. Ryan Barber: “Among the questions for the several investigations now under way: How did the Secret Service coordinate and communicate with local officers before and during the event? And what went so wrong that the former president came within inches of losing his life? One detail became clearer Monday: The Secret Service said local law enforcement was in charge of securing the building, belonging to American Glass Research, where Crooks was perched.”

5. FOR YOUR RADAR: “House Republicans threaten to subpoena Pentagon for information on fatal Osprey crashes,” by NBC’s Laura Strickler and Courtney Kube: “In a letter to Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN on Tuesday, committee Chairman Rep. JAMES COMER, R- Ky., and National Security Subcommittee Chair Rep. GLENN GROTHMAN, R-Wisc., wrote that they requested documents about the troubled Osprey program Dec. 21, 2023, but have faced ‘significant delays and hurdles’ in obtaining the information. Specifically, committee leaders are asking the Pentagon to produce safety investigations for every major crash of the tiltrotor aircraft since 1991.”

6. THE (STILL) WELL-OILED MACHINE: “Why Is the Oil Industry Booming?” by NYT’s Rebecca Elliott in Midland, Texas: “The industry’s revival after bruising losses during the Covid-19 pandemic is due largely to market forces, though Russia’s war in Ukraine has helped. U.S. oil prices have averaged around $80 a barrel since early 2021, compared with roughly $53 in the four years before that. That the price and demand for oil have been so strong suggests that the shift to renewable energy and electric vehicles will take longer and be more bumpy than some climate activists and world leaders once hoped.”

 

SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Joe Scarborough was not happy about MSNBC’s decision to preempt “Morning Joe” after the Trump assassination attempt.

METRO SECTION MEDIAWATCH — “Former DCist staff launch the 51st, new local news site for Washington,” by WaPo’s Elahe Izadi: “The worker-run newsroom will attempt to fill a niche its founders say opened when WAMU closed DCist.”

SPOTTED in Milwaukee: Musician Lee Greenwood walking through the Media Row early this morning at the Panther Arena.

OUT AND ABOUT — The National Italian American Foundation hosted a reception honoring the bipartisan Italian American commitment to public service at the Calderone Club in Milwaukee. SPOTTED: Pam Bondi, Kash Patel, Ric Grenell, Paul Kanitra, David Carr, Anita McBride, Mike Ferguson, Robert Allegrini and Anthony O’Boyle.

TRANSITIONS — Kevin McColaugh is joining the NCAA as director of government relations. He previously was director of federal relations at Northeastern University and is a Charlie Baker alum. … Julissa Reynoso is joining Winston & Strawn as a partner. She previously was the first female U.S. Ambassador to Spain and Andorra and before that was chief of staff to first lady Jill Biden. …

… Teresa Buckley Bill is joining PhRMA as deputy VP of federal government affairs. She previously was senior director of federal government affairs at Gilead and is a Larry Buschon alum. … Corey Williams is now legislative affairs director with the U.S. Office of Special Counsel. He most recently was director of government relations at IAC

BONUS BIRTHDAY: DNC’s Sonia Lachter (24)

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Trump's Gold Rush

This asset class is about to take over the White House ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌...