| | | | |  | | By Madison Fernandez | Presented by LG Ad Solutions | | | | | Democrats are looking for a rare pickup in deep red Alabama this fall. But as the two Democrats vying for the party’s nod race toward a runoff, they both argue that the House seat is not a guaranteed win in November. Shomari Figures, a former deputy chief of staff and counselor to Attorney General Merrick Garland, and state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels are facing off in an April 16 runoff for Alabama’s 2nd District after no Democrat received a majority of the vote in the Super Tuesday primary. Figures earned 44 percent of the vote last month, and Daniels got 22 percent.
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An Alabama Senate committee discusses a proposal to draw new congressional district lines on July 20, 2023, in Montgomery, Ala. | Kim Chandler/AP Photo | Alabama’s congressional map was redrawn last fall after federal judges ruled that lines drawn by the GOP-dominated state legislature likely violated the Voting Rights Act by weakening the power of Black voters, who make up about one-quarter of the state’s population. The newly drawn AL-02 has a Black voting age population of just under 49 percent and was drawn so Black voters can elect a candidate of their choosing. Most expect it to be a fairly easy win for Democrats in November — but the candidates say it is no sure thing. “We definitely cannot take this seat for granted,” Figures said in an interview with Score, pointing to the turnout in the primary, where roughly the same number of Democrats and Republicans showed up in the district. “When the court created this district, they created it as an opportunity district. … We're not taking this as a likely Democratic seat. We're taking this as a seat that we can win, and also as a seat that we can lose if we don't run the right type of campaign or have the right resources.” And Daniels, his runoff opponent, agrees. The district is not a slam dunk, but it leans Democratic. President Joe Biden would have carried it by over 12 points in 2020, although GOP Gov. Kay Ivey would have narrowly carried it in 2022 where she blew her little-known Democratic opponent out of the water. The political arm of the Southern Poverty Law Center — which hosted a candidate forum before the primary — circulated a memo in February arguing that “low voter registration, particularly among young people of color, and low voter engagement” meant the district wasn’t locked down. The runoff has been contentious. Both candidates have accused the other of not living in the district. And Daniels has gone after Figures for being supported by Protect Progress, a pro-crypto super PAC that has dropped around $2 million boosting him. (Figures said that his lead in the primary had more to do with the work his campaign did than the outside spending.) “I think that the cryptocurrency PAC, their negatives are so high now in the state about trying to buy this race to where it hurts him now, and it will hurt him if he's the potential nominee, and we’ll lose the race,” Daniels told Score. Republicans also have a runoff of their own between attorney Caroleene Dobson and former state Sen. Dick Brewbaker. Both have outraised Figures and Daniels, thanks to hefty personal contributions — generally a sign that the district has a chance of being at least a bit competitive in November. Brewbaker has given his campaign $1.6 million, and Dobson has poured close to $1 million into her bid. Happy Monday. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Alabama runoffs: 11 Days until the Pennsylvania primaries: 18 Days until the Indiana primaries: 32 Days until the North Carolina runoffs and Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia primaries: 39 Days until the Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon primaries: 46 Days until the Texas runoffs: 53 Days until the Republican National Convention: 100 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 136 Days until the 2024 election: 214
| | | | A message from LG Ad Solutions: Discover why you may risk missing 65% of Likely Voters without a direct-to-glass CTV political advertising strategy. Our 'Direct-to-Glass Playbook For Political Marketers' breaks down the essentials of the big shift from tradition linear TV to streaming, showing how reach and frequency optimization, precision targeting at the zip code level and enhanced ad formats like QR codes can change minds and mobilize political action. Download the full report for actionable strategies and tactics here. | | | | | RAKING IT IN — Former President Donald Trump said he raked in more than $50 million at a fundraiser over the weekend, as he is “pushing to close a massive cash disadvantage” against Biden, our Alex Isenstadt reports. Trump’s haul comes just weeks after Biden held a $26 million fundraiser with former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Trump is set to hold another high-dollar fundraiser this week in Atlanta. Still, Biden outpaced Trump again on the fundraising front last month. The president’s campaign, along with the DNC and related joint fundraising committees, said it raised $90 million in March and entered April with $192 million on hand. Trump’s operation with the RNC brought in $66 million and had $93 million on hand last month. ABORTION ON THE BALLOT — Trump on Monday said abortion should be left to the states, declining to endorse any national limit on the procedure. His announcement is "likely to disappoint anti-abortion groups who hoped he would use his bully pulpit to endorse national restrictions on abortion, especially after his campaign floated a 15-week ban earlier this year," our Megan Messerly writes. "The announcement highlights Trump’s recognition that abortion has dogged Republicans on the campaign trail since the fall of Roe v. Wade nearly two years ago — and his primary goal of winning the 2024 election." WINNER TAKES IT ALL — The push for Nebraska Republicans to change how the state allocates its electoral votes had another setback on Friday. With few remaining days left in the legislative session, Republicans were banking to attach its winner-takes-all legislation — which is still in committee — to a bill that is poised to be taken up by the floor. But Republican Speaker John Arch “encouraged” legislators to “show some restraint” in adding full bills to other bills because it could jeopardize legislation that needs to be considered before the end of the session. Some supporters of the bill, including conservative activist Charlie Kirk, are calling for Republican Gov. Jim Pillen — who is in favor of the change — to hold a special session to consider it.
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| | 2024 WATCH — Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert, who currently represents CO-03, secured the top spot on the Republican primary ballot for CO-04 after she won the district’s nominating assembly with more than 40 percent of support. The deep-red seat is open after former Rep. Ken Buck ended his term early. Greg Lopez, a former mayor, is Republicans’ nominee in the June special election, although he is not running for a full term. Former state Sen. Ted Harvey did not clear the threshold to make the ballot, and is also not collecting signatures, so he will not be in the running for the full term. Former state Sen. Jerry Sonnenberg and state Rep. Richard Holtorf also did not earn enough support to make the ballot, but they are collecting signatures. Deborah Flora, a conservative radio host who chose not to go the nominating assembly route, will also appear on the ballot after submitting enough signatures. A handful of other candidates skipped the assembly as well. … Republican Nashville Metro Council member Courtney Johnston is primarying Rep. Andy Ogles in TN-05. Tom Guarente, a cybersecurity executive, is also running in the GOP primary. PRIMARY PROBLEMS — “The ongoing humanitarian disaster in Gaza, and events like the killing of World Central Kitchen relief workers, are changing the dynamics” in the Democratic primary for NY-16, where Westchester County Executive George Latimer is challenging Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman, “testing the limits of Democratic support from even a stalwart backer of the Israeli government,” our Nick Reisman and Jason Beeferman write. Latimer, who is backed by pro-Israel groups, “has shown no signs of shifting” his broad support of Israel, “but like many prominent Democrats, Latimer is adjusting his rhetoric as the war continues, calling into question the durability of holding a pro-Israel stance.” FIRST IN SCORE — ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Maggie’s List, a group boosting conservative women, is endorsing Monique DeSpain in OR-04, Leslie Lewallen in WA-03 and former Reps. Mayra Flores in TX-34 and Yvette Herrell in NM-02. DeSpain is in a May primary to challenge Democratic Rep. Val Hoyle, and Lewallen is also in a primary that includes 2022 GOP nominee Joe Kent to take on Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez. Flores and Herrell will be challenging Democratic Reps. Vicente Gonzalez and Gabe Vasquez, respectively, in the fall. … Trump threw his support behind Republican Brad Knott in next month’s primary runoff for NC-13. Knott, a former federal prosecutor, and Kelly Daughtry are vying for the nomination, and the winner will have an easy path to victory come November in this safe red seat. Trump slammed Daughtry for previously donating to Democrats and saying she would vote for Obama — a refrain that Knott has emphasized. ... Trump also endorsed Tony Wied, a former gas station owner, to replace Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher in safe red WI-08. Wied is set to announce his campaign today, and Alex Bruesewitz, a Republican consultant who was considering a run for the seat, will serve as "an informal adviser" to Wied, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Lawrence Andrea reports. In his endorsement, Trump called on former state Sen. Roger Roth, a Republican, to drop out. … Jay Jacobs, the chair of the New York State Democratic Party, is backing NY-01 candidate John Avlon. Nancy Goroff, a chemist, is also running for the Democratic nod against Republican Rep. Nick LaLota. IN THE STATES — Derek Babcock is the new chair of the Louisiana Republican Party. Babcock, secretary of the party, replaces Louis Gurvich, who didn’t seek reelection and will serve in Republican Gov. Jeff Landry’s administration. The Louisiana Democratic Party is choosing its leadership on Saturday, and Chair Katie Bernhardt faces an uncertain future. She faces challenges, including from former state Rep. Randal Gaines, following Democrats losing the governorship in 2023. Last month, Bernhardt lost an election to serve on the Democratic State Central Committee. … Ron Kaufman, the general chair of the Republican National Convention and a former treasurer for the Republican National Committee, was ousted from his post as a national committeeman after a Massachusetts Republican Party vote over the weekend. Read more from our Lisa Kashinsky.
| | | | A message from LG Ad Solutions:   | | | | | Q1 TABS — Here’s the latest on Q1 fundraising totals in races of note (and send yours in!): FIRST IN SCORE — WI-03 — Democrat Rebecca Cooke raised more than $490,000. Cooke, a small business owner who came in second during the 2022 Democratic primary, is running again to challenge Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden. NM-Sen — Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich brought in more than $1.5 million, and his likely Republican challenger Nella Domenici raised more than $1.25 million, including a $500,000 personal contribution. NY-16 — Bowman raised $1.3 million. NY-19 — Democrat Josh Riley raised $1.4 million and has $2.5 million on hand in his bid to take on Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro. OR-05 — Democratic state Rep. Janelle Bynum brought in $500,000. She’s looking to take on Republican Rep. Lori Chaez-DeRemer, but has to get past Jamie McLeod-Skinner, Democrats’ nominee in 2022, in a May primary first. THE LIMIT DOES NOT EXIST — “Super PACs keep pushing the boundaries of campaign finance law this cycle,” our Jessica Piper writes. “The willingness to push the boundaries suggests that U.S. politics has entered the Wild West campaign financing system that many observers predicted would come in the wake of the court’s weakening campaign finance laws.”
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | | WV-Gov — Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey has a lead over his primary opponents, according to an internal poll from Black Bear PAC, an outside group supporting him, conducted by WPA Intelligence. Morrisey has 37 percent of support, followed by former state Del. Moore Capito with 20 percent; businessperson Chris Miller with 19 percent; and Secretary of State Mac Warner with 14 percent (501 likely Republican primary voters, April 1-3, MoE +/- 4.4 percentage points).
| | MD-Sen — Democratic Rep. David Trone touts his past legislation and not taking special interest money. MT-Sen — One Nation, a group aligned with Senate GOP leadership, is going after Democratic Sen. Jon Tester over his immigration record. UT-Sen — Conservative Outsider PAC, a super PAC supporting Republican Brent Orrin Hatch, the son of late Sen. Orrin Hatch, is up with another Utah Republican’s testimony in support of him. WV-Sen — Republican West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice is criticizing GOP Rep. Alex Mooney, his primary opponent, for going to the Middle East in 2016 when floods hit the state. IN-Gov — Hoosier Hope, a group supporting Republican Sen. Mike Braun, ties him to Trump. … Brad Chambers, one of Braun’s primary opponents, is again hammering him for previously saying he supports the Black Lives Matter movement. ND-Gov — Republican Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller is attacking primary challenger Rep. Kelly Armstrong for “running a dirty negative campaign.” WV-Gov — Black Bear PAC, the pro-Morrisey group, continues to target Miller over transgender issues. HOUSE BATTLEGROUNDS — The House Majority PAC, House Democrats’ main super PAC, announced a $146 million investment in TV ads, along with $40 million in digital ads, CNN’s Manu Raju writes. HMP said the initial reservations for the fall are the largest ever in the group’s history. IN-03 — America Leads Action Inc. is attacking former Rep. Marlin Stutzman as “another self-serving politician.” The group is bankrolled by wealthy businesspeople Jay Faison and Rob Walton, and has spent in other GOP primaries. Stutzman faces a crowded primary for this open seat next month. NY-26 — Democratic state Sen. Tim Kennedy, who is running in this month’s special election to fill the deep-blue seat vacated by then-Democratic Rep. Brian Higgins, features a mother whose son was shot in the 2022 Buffalo shooting at a supermarket explaining how Kennedy helped in the aftermath.
| | — The RNC has “now has rehired many of the 60 staffers who were fired when Trump took control last month,” Axios’ Sophia Cai and Alex Thompson report. “Those who've been rehired include most of the RNC's staff in key states, including five regional political directors and most of the committee's state directors. … Also rehired: staffers who worked on the RNC's state strategies and data teams.” — Biden’s campaign announced new staff in Georgia, including Porsha White as state director; Lacey Morrison as state campaign manager; Teddy Smyth as state general election director; Ryan Stern as trips director; Andy Love as data director; Cecilia Ugarte Baldwin as voter protection director; Liz Barrett as deputy director for voter protection; Alice Nam as press secretary; and Marc Banks as deputy communications director. CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “I still don’t have any burning desire to be a senator.” — Republican Maryland Senate candidate and former Gov. Larry Hogan to CNN
| | | | A message from LG Ad Solutions: The shift from linear TV to Connected TV marks a new era in political advertising, as a significant portion of likely voters move beyond the reach of traditional TV advertising. Our survey of over 1,000 likely voters who own a Connected TV reveals that 82% watch ad-supported streaming services, and half are open to changing their minds based on new information. You can't afford to miss out. Our 'Direct-to-Glass Playbook For Political Marketers' unveils how CTV + ACR enables better reach and frequency optimization, precise targeting, interactive ad units, and advanced measurement that drive outcomes. Download the playbook now for strategies that transform voter attention into dynamic, impactful, and engaging persuasion and GOTV campaigns. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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