Monday, April 8, 2024

Crypto crunch time

Presented by Electronic Payments Coalition: Delivered daily by 8 a.m., Morning Money examines the latest news in finance politics and policy.
Apr 08, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Morning Money

By Eleanor Mueller and Zachary Warmbrodt

Presented by 

Electronic Payments Coalition

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QUICK FIX

The House returns this week with about 60 session days left before the election. House Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry is gearing up for a floor vote on landmark crypto legislation that represents one of his top priorities. But he’s facing growing doubts about whether it can get done.

MM this morning has a deep dive into the state of play around McHenry’s plan to divide digital asset oversight between the SEC and CFTC, which he’s pushing with House Agriculture Chair G.T. Thompson. The committees approved the legislation last summer, and the effort has since faced a series of complications including October’s speakership meltdown, ongoing demands from fellow Republicans to tweak the proposal and now a razor-thin GOP vote margin. The legislation has attracted some bipartisan support but has virtually no shot of becoming law because of likely resistance in the Senate. It’s nonetheless a legacy item for McHenry, who is retiring, and a major milestone for the crypto lobby.

The fact that it’s proven to be so difficult to advance in the generally crypto-friendly GOP House illustrates the ongoing political challenges around establishing digital asset policy in the U.S.

“If you had told me last year that we'd be in April with really no clear path to a floor vote or plan? That would have surprised me,” said one crypto lobbyist who was granted anonymity to speak candidly.

McHenry and Thompson are circulating what senior committee staff told MM is near-final text in hopes of a floor vote in the second quarter. They said they’re also circling back with Democrats who requested changes during committee votes last summer to make sure they’re satisfied. Six Financial Services Democrats supported it over the objections of ranking member Maxine Waters

An updated draft POLITICO scooped earlier this year included edits to address concerns about whistleblower protections and trading by lawmakers. No anti-money laundering provisions have been added, committee staff said last week. That’s an important component to watch because enacting new AML safeguards for crypto is a priority for some Democrats.

Overall, aides working on the legislation said any changes will align with the overall thrust of the bill as it appeared last summer. But some crypto advocates are privately complaining that they’ve been left in the dark, which they argue could hinder lobbying efforts.

“Not only has it not seen the light of day, but you can't advocate for something that's a state secret,” another crypto lobbyist told MM.

Another outstanding issue is how to incorporate separate proposals from House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, who is one of the most outspoken pro-crypto lawmakers on Capitol Hill, as well as a pivotal ally in the fight for floor time.

Emmer has long wanted to include his legislation that would shield digital assets sold as part of investment contracts from being regulated as securities. It was included in an updated version of the bill that House Financial Services Republicans privately briefed Democrats on in January. It runs the risk of hurting what’s already proven to be narrow Democratic support for the underlying legislation. Senior committee staff said they are still in talks with Emmer's team on the best way to finalize the language.

McHenry and Thompson also have to weigh whether to back an accompanying vote on restricting central bank digital currency, another Emmer policy that could potentially isolate Democrats.

Then there’s McHenry’s other crypto priority, legislation that would establish federal oversight of stablecoins. That bill, which unlike the SEC-CFTC plan may have a sliver of hope of some bipartisan Senate buy-in, has been the subject of talks for many months between McHenry, Waters, the Biden administration and regulators. If it ever moves ahead, it’s expected to be attached to another piece of must-pass legislation, according to House aides and lobbyists who flagged FAA reauthorization legislation as a possibility. McHenry said last month that he was confident about passing the stablecoin bill but that “we need a legislative vehicle.”

For now, committee staff working on the crypto push said McHenry and Thompson are educating members on all the bills separately and will decide which measures move together based on the state of negotiations when floor time becomes available.

Stay tuned for more Capitol Hill crypto news Tuesday, when Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo testifies at a Senate Banking hearing on illicit finance.

Happy Monday – Send tips to zwarmbrodt@politico.com and keep up with Eleanor at emueller@politico.com and @Eleanor_Mueller.

 

A message from Electronic Payments Coalition:

CRS: NO EVIDENCE THAT DURBIN-MARSHALL CREDIT CARD BILL WOULD HELP CONSUMERS OR SMALL BUSINESSES The independent Congressional Research Service (CRS) is the latest organization to release a report questioning whether the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card Bill would help consumers or small businesses. CRS echoed an earlier report by the Richmond Fed noting that consumers failed to see any meaningful cost savings because of similar legislation imposing routing mandates and price caps on debit card interchange. Learn more HERE.

 
Driving the Week

Monday … Assistant Attorney General Jonathan Kanter, FTC Chair Lina Khan, SEC Chair Gary Gensler and CFPB Director Rohit Chopra are among the speakers at an FTC-DOJ summit on competition enforcement …

Tuesday … Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo testifies on illicit finance, terrorism and sanctions evasion at Senate Banking at 10 a.m. … Sens. Cynthia Lummis and Kirsten Gillibrand are among the speakers at the Bitcoin Policy Summit at the National Press Club beginning at 8:30 a.m. … Sens. Chris Van Hollen and Bernie Sanders are scheduled to speak at the Employee Ownership Ideas Forum on Capitol Hill.

Wednesday … CPI for March is out at 8:30 a.m. … Fed Governor Michelle Bowman discusses capital requirements during the European Bank Executive forum at 8:45 a.m. … FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg will give a “comprehensive update” on the agency’s approach to the orderly resolution of big banks at the Peterson Institute at 10 a.m. … House Financial Services holds a hearing on the SEC’s climate-risk disclosure rule at 10 a.m. … Eugene Scalia moderates a Federalist Society discussion on bank capital that includes former Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles at 12 p.m. … Senate Banking holds a subcommittee hearing on the Missouri Higher Education Loan Authority at 2:30 p.m.

Thursday … PPI for March is released at 8:30 a.m. … IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva gives an address on the global economy at the Atlantic Council at 9 a.m. … The CFTC’s Agricultural Advisory Committee meets in Overland Park, Kansas, at 10:30 a.m. … Treasury Undersecretary Jay Shambaugh will discuss the U.S. vision for global debt and development finance at Peterson at 1 p.m.

Friday … The University of Michigan releases preliminary consumer sentiment data for April at 10 a.m.

 

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Driving the day

Jamie Dimon’s new warning — The JPMorgan Chase CEO is calling on the U.S. to bolster support for Ukraine amid persistent skepticism from Trump allies in Congress over further aid. In his annual letter to shareholders, he warned of a potential "splintering of Pax Americana” if the war with Russia went badly for Ukraine, which he said “would be a disaster for the whole free world."

He made the case for Ukraine as part of an urgent pitch for America to maintain military superiority, shore up ties with allies, reinvigorate trade relationships and secure the border. It marked an unusually grave national security warning from a top corporate leader. JPMorgan has been advising Ukraine on its reconstruction.

Schumer warns about Capital One-Discover — Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is pressing Capital One and Discover for details on their planned mega-merger, marking a new escalation in congressional scrutiny of the deal.

Per the New York Daily News, Schumer is asking the companies for, among other things, a breakdown of interest rates charged to consumers over the past decade with regard to race and where they live. A Schumer spokesperson said his office previously reached out to the firms before sending a letter Sunday but never heard back.

“Capital One and Discover are quietly pursuing a major merger into one,” Schumer said on X. “That could mean higher fees, higher interest rates, higher annual fees, higher late payment penalties, and more. I’m working to get answers for consumers and regulators.”

In other Schumer news, his legislative wish list for the “weeks and months” ahead includes the bank executive accountability bill, cannabis banking safeguards and China competitiveness, per a letter he sent ahead of the chamber’s return this week.

The tax battle — Brian Faler has a look behind the scenes at corporate America’s struggle to overcome Senate GOP opposition to a nearly $80 billion bipartisan tax package. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the Business Roundtable, the National Association of Manufacturers and other business groups are “going all-out” to get the plan through the Senate.

“We’re in a different world now where the business community can’t expect Republicans to always carry their water,” said one former Republican tax aide.

Inside Trump’s big fundraiser — Former President Donald Trump raised more than $50 million at a Saturday event held at the Palm Beach home of billionaire investor John Paulson, who has been floated as a Trump 2.0 Treasury secretary. Other big donors included New York Jets owner Woody Johnson, Continental Resources executive chair Harold Hamm and sugar mogul Pepe Fanjul, Sr.

In a Bloomberg interview, Paulson said it was “too premature” for him to discuss any potential government position. Asked what Trump and Republicans should do with the $50 million, he said the GOP needs to “level the playing field” in absentee and early voting.

Yellen in China — The U.S. and China agreed this weekend to hold “intensive exchanges” on more balanced economic growth and to start collaborating to combat money laundering, per the AP. It followed meetings between Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Guangzhou.

Yellen met Sunday with Chinese Premier Li Qiang and said the U.S.-China relationship is “on more stable footing.” She also said this weekend that there will be "significant consequences" for China if its companies support Russia's war against Ukraine.

 

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Economy

Good news on inflation — Per the FT, OECD data shows that food inflation in rich nations has dropped to its lowest level since before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“We have seen the worst of high food inflation,” said Carlos Mera, head of agricultural commodities at Rabobank.

Baltimore update — Maryland Gov. Wes Moore says it’s “realistic” to expect the channel leading to the Port of Baltimore to reopen by the end of May.

Regulatory Corner

Judges spar over CFPB lawsuit — A federal appeals court blocked a lower court’s decision to transfer a banking industry lawsuit against the CFPB’s credit card late fee rule to Washington, D.C. It's injecting fresh chaos into what was already dramatic litigation.

Last month, District Judge Mark Pittman in Fort Worth sided with the CFPB and ruled that the case belonged in Washington where key plaintiffs — the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Bankers Association — are based. The CFPB had accused the groups of venue-shopping, and Pittman appeared frustrated with the influx of cases landing in his court.

But in a 2-1 decision — two Trump picks versus an Obama pick – the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals on Friday ordered Pittman (another Trump nominee) to reopen the case, Katy O’Donnell and Michael Stratford report. The dissenting judge, Stephen Higginson, wrote that Pittman’s transfer was correct and reflected “prudent policing of forum shopping.”

SEC scores crypto win — Declan Harty reports that a New York jury found Terraform Labs and its founder Do Kwon liable for civil charges in what the SEC calls a massive fraud. Kwon, who is in custody in Montenegro, is also facing fraud and conspiracy charges from federal prosecutors.

Housing

More pain for NAR — Katy and Josh Sisco report that a federal appeals court is allowing the Justice Department to reopen an antitrust investigation into the National Association of Realtors, adding to its mounting legal woes.

“Real-estate commissions in the United States greatly exceed those in any other developed economy, and this decision restores the Antitrust Division’s ability to investigate potentially unlawful conduct by NAR that may be contributing to this problem,” Assistant Attorney General Jonathan Kanter said in a statement. “The Antitrust Division is committed to fighting to lower the cost of buying and selling a home.”

 

Access New York bill updates and Congressional activity in areas that matter to you, and use our exclusive insights to see what’s on the Albany agenda. Learn more.

 
 
Fly Around

People moves Cardiff Garcia is joining the Economic Innovation Group as editorial director. The think tank will also acquire his The New Bazaar economics podcast. Cardiff was previously co-creator and co-host of NPR’s The Indicator from Planet Money podcast and the U.S. editor of FT Alphaville … The Roosevelt Institute has hired Elly Kugler as managing director for government relations and Hannah Groch-Begley to serve as the director of its think tank.

 

A message from Electronic Payments Coalition:

CRS QUESTIONS WHETHER DURBIN-MARSHALL CREDIT CARD BILL WOULD HELP ANYONE AT ALL Every member of Congress should read the CRS analysis which discusses the impact the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card Bill could have on small businesses and American families. Report after report has plainly demonstrated that consumers and small businesses did NOT save any money when Congress passed the 2010 Durbin Amendment, imposing new mandates on debit cards. Now, a decade later, why would anyone assume a monumental restructuring of our nation’s secure, worry-free credit card system would yield different results? After considering the facts, the only logical solution would be to strongly OPPOSE the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card Bill. Click HERE to learn more.

 
 

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