| | | | |  | | By Bianca Quilantan | | | FOCUS UP — Analysts at Moody’s have identified the top issues that higher education leaders should be laser-focused on in 2024 — and they're a diverse and challenging bunch. — Emily Raimes, associate managing director at Moody’s Ratings, said that the issues that are most pressing for colleges will vary by institution. But some of the top ones higher education leaders should keep in mind are: The pending demographic cliff due to low birth rates, political pressure leading to institutional leadership turnover and a rise in questions about artificial intelligence. “The preparations for the demographic cliff, that's likely to have more of an impact on colleges that are already struggling with growing or stabilizing their enrollment,” Raimes said. “So it will be more of an issue for them than those that have seen growing enrollment over recent years. As you go across [these issues], they have different weights for different colleges.” Here’s a breakdown of some of the challenges: — 1. The dreaded demographic cliff: Moody’s estimates that the number of high school graduates will peak at 3.8 million in 2025 before dropping due to lower birth rates. This could spark fierce competition among colleges for students and increased spending on recruitment. By 2030, Moody’s forecasts that the number of high school graduates will fall to about 3.5 million. “Universities have been preparing for this for many years,” Raimes said. “If you look at the forecast, it's more of a slide. There isn't a one-year event here, but rather, this is something that will be something that colleges have to deal with over the next decade.” — 2. Leadership turnover: The average tenure of a university president dropped from 8.5 years in 2006 to just under 6 years in 2022. Patrick Ronk, a Moody’s analyst, said this is in part because it is “stressful to be a senior leader at a university … It is a very political position regardless of who's in the White House.” Additionally, there has been more high profile media coverage of higher education, Ronk said, and some leaders are finding that untenable. “It's not just like what is happening in geopolitics or national politics, but you also have to keep faculty happy,” Ronk said. “You have to keep students happy. There are a lot of more parochial things that happen on college campuses that university and college presidents are accountable for.” — 3. Grappling with AI: More than half of students think that AI will revolutionize teaching and learning methods. This is pushing colleges to figure out how to integrate this tool into their classrooms while also navigating concerns of academic integrity. “A lot of universities are acknowledging that this is becoming real,” Ronk said. “So they should figure out how to best utilize it in an appropriate, innovative way … We're seeing a lot of schools either announce partnerships with Microsoft or OpenAI or trying to roll out their own AI policies and chatbots to make it a learning tool for students and a classroom assistance tool as opposed to trying to ban it or pretending it doesn't exist.” IT’S MONDAY, APRIL 8. WELCOME TO WEEKLY EDUCATION. WHAT SHOULD WE BE LOOKING OUT FOR THIS WEEK? Drop me a line at bquilantan@politico.com. Send tips to my colleagues Mackenzie Wilkes at mwilkes@politico.com and Juan Perez Jr. at jperez@politico.com. And follow us: @Morning_Edu and @POLITICOPro.
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| | |  President Joe Biden is expected to be in Wisconsin today. | Ian Maule/Getty Images | BIDEN TO TOUT LATEST LOAN RELIEF EFFORTS — President Joe Biden will pitch new details for his administration’s “Plan B” on student loan forgiveness during his trip to Madison, Wisconsin, today. He is expected to outline his plans to cancel student debt for more than 30 million Americans by this fall, kicking off an election-year sprint to deliver on a promise that was thwarted by the Supreme Court the first time around. — The White House is also dispatching other top administration officials to promote the plan on Monday during visits to other swing states. Vice President Kamala Harris will be in Philadelphia, second gentleman Douglas Emhoff will travel to Phoenix, and Education Secretary Miguel Cardona will travel to New York City. — Biden's latest proposal will forgive unpaid interest for some 25 million Americans who now owe more on their loans than they originally borrowed because of ballooning interest. The plan will also provide relief to about 2 million borrowers who’ve carried their debts for decades and another 2 million borrowers who would have qualified for existing federal relief programs but failed to enroll, administration officials said. — The Education Department late last month advanced its second attempt at sweeping student loan debt relief by sending it to the White House Office of Management and Budget for review. A proposed rule is expected sometime in May, according to the spring regulatory agenda. | 
Former President Donald Trump speaks at a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin, on April 2, 2024. | Mike Roemer/AP | YOUTHFUL ENERGY? — Polls are showing that former President Donald Trump is ascendant with the youngest bloc of the electorate, even leading President Joe Biden in some surveys, POLITICO’s Steven Shepard reports. But Biden is polling stronger this election cycle with seniors. — Still, Shepard warns: This early 2024 polling could signal a massive electoral realignment or that the polls are wrong again. If the polling is right, this would be a generational shift — for decades, Democratic presidential candidates have overwhelmingly won young voters, and Republicans have done the same with the other end of the electorate. — However, the age inversion could signal that polls are once again struggling to measure the presidential race accurately after underestimating Trump in the previous two presidential elections. The implications are enormous, but here’s what we know right now.
| | |  Education Secretary Miguel Cardona will make the case for President Joe Biden's budget request. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo | HEARINGS ON HEARINGS — Expect a busy week on Capitol Hill, with Education Secretary Miguel Cardona slated to appear Wednesday morning in front of House lawmakers to defend Biden’s fiscal 2025 budget for the Education Department. At around the same time on Wednesday, the House education committee is expected to examine missteps in the rollout of the new, simplified Free Application for Federal Student Aid. — Cardona is expected to advocate for Biden’s request for $82 billion in federal discretionary spending to fund the Education Department. The request also includes funding for key education priorities, including Biden’s pitch for free community college, expanding free preschool and another boost to the Pell Grant program. — Additionally, a House Committee on Education and the Workforce subcommittee hearing on the same day will take on the challenges families have been facing with submitting the FAFSA. “The Education Department’s FAFSA rollout has been defined by poor communication, negligence and incompetence that has wreaked havoc on the entire university system,” Rep. Burgess Owens (R-Utah), who is leading the hearing, said in a statement. CONGRESS LOOKS AT FLIGHT EDUCATION LOANS — A provision in the bill to reauthorize the Federal Aviation Administration would increase current federal student loan limits for flight education and training up to $107,500, The American Prospect’s David Dayen reports. But the current FAA bill also looks to block any student loan relief regarding these loans. — The government “may not take any action to cancel or forgive the outstanding balances, or portion of balances, on any Federal Direct Unsubsidized Stafford Loan, or otherwise modify the terms or conditions of a Federal Direct Unsubsidized Stafford Loan, made to an eligible student, except as authorized by an Act of Congress,” the bill provision reads. — Some advocates fear the bill could be used to rationalize blocking any of Biden’s student debt relief efforts. Preventing debt relief for pilots through federal law could eventually extend to preventing debt relief for all students, at least one student loan debt relief group has argued.
| | AFT AD BUY — The American Federation of Teachers this morning launched a TV advertising campaign in both English and Spanish, and a national tour to highlight the role of community schools. The 30-second television and online ad will run in the Boston, Chicago, New York City, San Francisco and Washington, D.C. media markets through April to coincide with a community schools tour led by AFT President Randi Weingarten. Through AFT’s Real Solutions for Kids and Communities campaign unveiled in July 2023, Weingarten has called for 25,000 more community schools by 2025.
| | LAWSUIT AGAINST UMD — A group of sorority members and the Gamma Mu Chapter of Kappa Alpha Theta Women’s Fraternity sued the University of Maryland, College Park and top administrators last week alleging the school violated their rights during its hazing investigation. — The school temporarily banned all Greek life activity in March as a part of its investigation into hazing and physical abuse by some organizations. But the lawsuit says the groups were only allowed to continue operating after “the University required that students submit to a mandatory interrogation by attorneys retained by the University under threat of discipline for refusal to comply.” — Some students had their cell phones searched, according to the lawsuit, and investigators threatened individual disciplinary charges against students who didn't turn over their phones. Students were also not allowed to be accompanied by their attorneys during questioning. — Lawyers on behalf of the students argue that the university violated its own free speech policy and denied students of their First and Fourteenth Amendment rights through its mass suspension of sororities and fraternities without evidence or reports of misconduct for all of the groups. They also took issue with the school’s “no contact order” that temporarily barred all sororities and fraternities from having any contact with any new member or prospective new member.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | | — Some colleges will soon charge $100,000 a year. How did this happen?: The New York Times — A new Texas law allows schools to hire chaplains as counselors. So far, only one school has opted into the program: The Texas Tribune — Spending ESSER funds will come down to the wire for some districts. Here’s why: Education Week — Colleges gave out nearly $8 billion in Covid aid in 2022. Here’s who got the money: The Chronicle of Higher Education — 20 Pomona College protesters arrested after storming, occupying president’s office: Los Angeles Times | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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