Monday, March 18, 2024

‘Shadow banks’ step out

Presented by the American Bankers Association: Delivered daily by 8 a.m., Morning Money examines the latest news in finance politics and policy.
Mar 18, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Morning Money

By Zachary Warmbrodt

Presented by

the American Bankers Association

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QUICK FIX

Asset managers are playing a larger and larger role in lending that has historically been done by banks. First it was credit for corporations. Next is consumers. It’s triggering fresh regulatory scrutiny — and new efforts by the industry’s lobbying arm to get ahead of a potential crackdown.

MM spoke with some of the private credit world’s lead advocates on both sides of the Atlantic to get a sense of what’s coming and how they’re gearing up.

A big takeaway is that it’s relatively early days for government intervention in the $1.5 trillion market, though the last several weeks have featured a flurry of activity from policymakers.

In the U.S., Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu last month cited private credit as a concern in a major speech on the blurring of banking and commerce. The Federal Reserve issued a report on the sector and raised financial stability questions to watch, including the extent to which the growth of private credit fuels corporate leverage and pressures underwriting standards. In Europe, regulators are beginning to roll out new rules.

MFA president and CEO Bryan Corbett told MM that the group’s work on private credit and direct lending has increased over the past couple of years, with last March’s bank failures and the recent debate over big bank capital rules fueling further scrutiny.

The group, which until recently was called the Managed Funds Association, is meeting more with bank regulators as well as Capitol Hill offices. While the firms facing questions are primarily regulated by the SEC, broader financial stability fears have attracted the attention of bank regulators like the Fed and the OCC. The Financial Stability Oversight Council would have the power to place a big money manager under Fed supervision, and it's been digging into the issue. (State insurance regulators are also paying closer attention because of the growing nexus between private equity and insurance.)

“We're trying to keep the line between bank and non-bank regulation,” said Corbett, whose group is based in Washington and has offices in London and Brussels. “Bank regulators are clearly trying to shift the line and apply bank-like rules and regulations to private credit lenders. We firmly believe that based on the business model, lack of depositors, secure long-term funding, they're very different.”

What’s at stake, according to Jiří Krόl, global head of the Alternative Credit Council, is whether there will be “severe constraints imposed on the ability to do what we do well without necessarily providing a policy justification for that.” The London-based ACC, an affiliate of the Alternative Investment Management Association, has meetings scheduled on Capitol Hill this week with offices that have been vocal on private credit. Krόl said the group is growing and trying to invest more in data and research. It recently recruited Joe Engelhard, formerly of MetLife, to boost its U.S. operation.

“You know how it is in D.C.,” Krόl said. “If the coil is being wound, it’s a matter of having an event where all of a sudden a lot of things can happen very quickly because there might be a political window where legislation becomes possible.”

Industry executives are also playing a more visible role in Washington. Apollo CEO Marc Rowan defended the regulatory treatment of private credit during a visit to the nation’s capital last month. During a public Q&A, he was asked by Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein about banking industry complaints that private equity giants can extend credit without the same regulatory constraints as traditional lenders.

“It’s a totally fair argument,” Rowan said at the event hosted by the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. “But it’s not a question of not regulated at all. It’s a question of regulated appropriately. What is the appropriate regulation for an entity that does not take deposits, does not have access to the Fed, does not have a government guarantee, does not do asset liability transformation and is 95 percent investment grade? … We are regulated, but we’re regulated in the same way an investment firm is regulated.”

It’s Monday — Send tips to zwarmbrodt@politico.com.

A message from the American Bankers Association:

Bank leaders from across the country will participate in ABA’s annual Washington Summit this week. Starting Tuesday, the Summit will explore the big issues in banking including the tsunami of regulatory changes threatening banks and their customers. Summit speakers include House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN), Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) and Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL.). The Points Guy founder Brian Kelly will discuss efforts to defend credit card rewards. View Tuesday’s livestream.

 
Driving the day

Monday … The Tennessee AG’s director of strategic litigation testifies at a House Financial Services

Tuesday … The FOMC begins its two-day meeting at 9 a.m.

Wednesday … House Financial Services holds an SEC oversight hearing at 10 a.m. … The FOMC’s interest rate decision is out at 2 p.m., followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. … House Financial Services has a hearing on homebuyers at 2 p.m.

Thursday … The FDIC holds a board meeting on bank merger policy at 10 a.m. … Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testifies on the administration’s budget pitch at Senate Finance at 10 a.m. … House Financial Services holds a hearing on global financial regulatory standards at 10 a.m. … Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaks at a University of Michigan event at noon … Yellen, OMB Director Shalanda Young and CEA Chair Jared Bernstein testify at House Appropriations at 2:30 p.m.

Friday … The Fed hosts a “Fed Listens” event on transitioning to the post-pandemic economy at 9 a.m. … Barr speaks at the Transnational Law Conference on the International Law of Money at noon

 

JOIN US ON 3/21 FOR A TALK ON FINANCIAL LITERACY: Americans from all communities should be able to save, build wealth, and escape generational poverty, but doing so requires financial literacy. How can government and industry ensure access to digital financial tools to help all Americans achieve this? Join POLITICO on March 21 as we explore how Congress, regulators, financial institutions and nonprofits are working to improve financial literacy education for all. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
Driving the day

French Hill is in — The Arkansas lawmaker is announcing that he’ll run to be the next top Republican on House Financial Services after months of speculation that he would do so. The committee vice chair — a former banker and Treasury official — is seen as a top contender for the post and is a favorite on K Street. He’s set to face off against Reps. Andy Barr and Bill Huizenga, and potentially others including Rep. Frank Lucas.

“Rep. Hill has been visiting with his colleagues about the possibility of seeking the House Financial Services chairmanship since Chairman [Patrick] McHenry announced he is not seeking reelection,” Hill’s spokesperson said. “Drawing on these conversations, as well as his four decades of public and private sector experience in financial services, Rep. Hill has decided he will seek the committee chairmanship.”

Fed week — The WSJ has a preview of the question before the FOMC when it meets Tuesday and Wednesday: Are rates too high or not? It’s becoming harder to answer because of the resilient economy, but signs of a potential slowdown are also piling up.

More than two-thirds of academic economists surveyed in a Financial Times-Chicago Booth poll think the Fed will make two or fewer cuts this year, which would be fewer than markets anticipate. The most popular response for the timing of the first cut was split between July and September. Markets are betting on an earlier kickoff in June.

JPMorgan Chase analysts on Friday dialed back their rate cut forecast to 75 basis points this year, down from 125 basis points, citing a “go-slow approach” at the Fed absent weaker growth.

Goldman sees stronger growth — Goldman Sachs economists on Sunday raised their forecast of potential GDP growth in 2024 by 0.3 percentage points to 2.1 percent, thanks to elevated immigration that has expanded the labor force.

Tiktok update — Rep. Mike Gallagher, who chairs the House select committee on China, thinks a forced TikTok sale “absolutely” could happen before the November election.

First look: Business creation under Biden — The Center for American Progress is out with a new report that found entrepreneurs filed 5.2 million “likely employer” business applications from January 2021 and December 2023, a more than one-third increase from the number of applications filed between 2017 and 2019.

 

A message from the American Bankers Association:

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Housing

A huge real estate shakeup — The National Association of Realtors has agreed to eliminate rules underpinning commissions that critics say inflate housing costs, Katy O’Donnell reports. NAR agreed to the change as part of a $418 million settlement to resolve a barrage of lawsuits. Stephen Brobeck, a senior fellow at the Consumer Federation of America, said it was “a big step forward for consumers.”

Russia

The top Canadian pressuring Putin — Our Ottawa colleague Nick Taylor-Vaisey has a new profile of Canadian deputy prime minister and finance minister Chrystia Freeland, who is trying to convince Western leaders to confiscate billions in Russian assets.

“Pussyfooting around Putin doesn’t really work,” she said. (The Russian president just claimed another six-year term.)

 

Easily connect with the right N.Y. State influencers and foster the right relationships to champion your policy priorities. POLITICO Pro. Inside New York. Learn more.

 
 
Crypto

DOJ: SBF should get up to 50 years — Per CoinDesk, U.S. prosecutors are recommending that former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried serve 40 to 50 years in prison for his conviction on fraud and conspiracy charges.

A message from the American Bankers Association:

ABA’s Washington Summit brings together more than 1,200 bank leaders for the nation’s premier conversation on banking policy. Join us virtually March 19-20 to learn more about industry efforts to defend against the regulatory tsunami threatening the ability of America’s banks to serve their customers and communities. Summit speakers include ABA President and CEO Rob Nichols, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN), Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) and Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL). Another panel features former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Randal Quarles, former FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams and former CFPB Director Kathleen Kraninger. The Points Guy founder Brian Kelly will share his perspective on legislation that would end popular credit card reward programs. Veteran political strategists Donna Brazile and Mike Murphy will offer their outlook on the fall election. View Tuesday’s livestream.

 
 

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