| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  Tom Suozzi ended up roughly matching Joe Biden’s 8-point margin from 2020. | Stefan Jeremiah/AP Photo | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | SUOZZILAND — After a failed governor run and a second chance granted by the grace of GEORGE SANTOS, veteran New York Democrat TOM SUOZZI is headed back to the House after soundly dispatching Republican MAZI PILIP in Queens and Long Island. Results So what does it all mean? It’s welcome news for jittery Democrats who have been reeling from the special counsel report into President JOE BIDEN. While a Pilip win would have prompted a further tailspin, Suozzi ended up roughly matching Biden’s 8-point margin from 2020. The race also offered a handy field test for Democratic messaging on the border, with Suozzi playing offense by embracing the Senate deal denounced by DONALD TRUMP and accusing the GOP of unseriousness on the issue. But the lessons for November might end there, our colleagues Nick Reisman, Madison Fernandez, Steven Shepard and Ally Mutnick write in their list of election-night takeaways. “Democrats had a slew of advantages in the race,” they write. “A recent former incumbent with extremely high name ID in the most expensive media market in the country. A massive fundraising and spending advantage. A short six-week timeline that made it difficult for Republicans to catch up. And GOP groups that largely sat out the race for the first few weeks. It won’t be that way come November.” What they are saying …
- Suozzi: “We, you won this race because we addressed the issues and found a way to bind our divisions. ... Let’s send a message to our friends running the Congress these days: Stop running around for Trump, and start running the country.”
- The NRCC: “Republicans still have multiple pathways to grow our majority in November.”
- Biden-Harris 2024: “Donald Trump lost again tonight. When Republicans run on Trump’s extreme agenda — even in a Republican-held seat — voters reject them.”
- Trump: “I … just watched this very foolish woman, Mazi Melesa Pilip, running in a race where she didn’t endorse me and tried to ‘straddle the fence,’ when she would have easily WON if she understood anything about MODERN DAY politics in America.”
- Santos: “-1.”
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Speaker Mike Johnson said yesterday he has no plans to take up the $95 billion Senate-passed supplemental. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | WHAT SUPP? — Yesterday’s big Senate vote on aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan didn’t do much to change reality: Moving a big foreign assistance package through the House is going to be difficult, if not impossible. Speaker MIKE JOHNSON said yesterday he has no plans to take up the $95 billion Senate-passed supplemental, though he and GOP aides have not ruled out putting forward pieces of the package. Instead, Johnson said he plans to focus on the upcoming appropriations deadlines while letting members put forward their own foreign aid proposals. He's also been asking the White House for a one-on-one meeting with Biden to discuss next steps, as NBC’s Julie Tsirkin first reported and a person close to Johnson confirmed to Playbook. Beyond that, Johnson right now appears to be a man without a plan. We caught up last night with several House GOP insiders, and each one told us it appears as though Johnson is flying by the seat of his pants, polishing his reputation for dithering in the face of tough decisions. There are some options being informally discussed, but they aren’t entirely under Johnson’s control. A leader with a firmer grasp on power, for instance, could take the Senate bill and tack on H.R. 2, the House’s tough border bill, or perhaps move to break up the bill into constituent pieces for separate votes. But doing either would require cooperation from the House Rules Committee, where conservative hard-liners appointed by former Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY exercise a de facto veto. Johnson’s own senior leadership team remains entirely in the dark about what he’s thinking, and there are plenty in that cadre who say flat-out that this ain’t going anywhere — ever. “I’m as confused as ever about what he wants,” one House GOP insider told us. “He hasn’t given us any direction. … I think right now he’s in survival mode.” “Kevin would have a strategy, he’d shop it around, then he’d make a play call,” another said. “The more I’m around Johnson, the more it’s clear to me he doesn’t have a plan.” The forces who could put pressure on Johnson to act, meanwhile, are in disarray. GOP defense hawks who want to see money flow to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan are holding their fire amid a fight over surveillance powers that is coming to a head this week. Rather than light up the speaker for ignoring the supplemental, we’re told, they’re saving their political capital to try to keep new surveillance warrant requirements out of the pending spy-powers reauthorization.
| | | | A message from American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers: EPA is set to finalize a regulation designed to end the sale of new gas and diesel cars regardless of what drivers want, need, and can afford. Polling shows that Americans think the Biden EPA is moving too far, too fast. President Biden: Stop the EPA’s car ban. Vehicle policies can’t just work for some of us. They should work for all of us. | | | As for Democrats, who are eager to engineer an end-run around Johnson: Talk of a discharge petition dominated House Democrats’ leadership meeting last night, we hear, and it’s expected to be a hot topic at this morning’s closed-door caucus meeting. Publicly, House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES is refusing to rule out the maneuver. But well-placed Democrats tell Playbook that it’s a long shot. For one, Republicans aren’t yet raising their hands, even those who have threatened in the past to help discharge government funding bills or a debt ceiling increase. Case in point: Centrist Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.), who would be a first stop for Democrats collecting discharge petition signatures, told our colleague Jordain Carney yesterday, “I’m not interested in being a rogue element right out of the box.” But Democrats might have a signature problem themselves. One senior member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus told Playbook last night that as many as 30 to 35 liberal members will likely balk at giving Israel $14 billion in no-strings-attached military aid. The person called the current Senate-passed package a “blank check to [BENJAMIN] NETANYAHU.” Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.) aired those concerns on CNN last night, citing not only Israel’s ongoing assault on Gaza but also the need for a larger package of humanitarian aid. “I don’t think I could bring myself to vote for it,” she said. Two other knowledgeable Democrats pushed back on suggestions that the progressive opposition could reach 30, arguing that the number is more likely 10 to 15. But that would still require more than a dozen Republicans to brave the fury of the base, their GOP colleagues and, more than likely, Trump. That’s a tall order, to say the least. Some Democrats believe there’s a shortcut: An existing discharge petition, circulated last year amid the debt ceiling debate, has 213 Democratic signatures — just five names short. It would tee up a vote on a shell resolution that could be substituted with the Senate bill or any other foreign aid measure that could get at least five Republicans on board. (There’s nothing keeping Israel-skeptical Dems from withdrawing their names, however.) Where there’s a will, in other words, there’s probably a way. The problem is the “will” part. On that front, Democrats are planning a pressure campaign urging GOP leaders to simply bring the issue to the floor. Behind the scenes, they’re imploring pro-Israel outside groups to lobby House leaders in the same way they pressured Senate Republicans to get in line. They’ll also continue pushing Johnson to make good on his promise to let the House “work its own will.” Doing so, they believe, would result in easy passage, as some of Johnson’s own members freely admit. Related read: “After facing off with Senate ‘Freedom Caucus,’ McConnell urges Johnson on Ukraine,” by Burgess Everett: “[H]e called on Johnson to bring the issue to the House floor — though [Senate Minority Leader MITCH] McCONNELL said he would not be ‘so presumptuous as to tell him how to do it.’” Good Wednesday morning. Happy Valentine’s Day, and a solemn Ash Wednesday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. JUST POSTED — “Liberal Group Joins Efforts Calling for Protest Vote Against Biden in Michigan,” by NYT’s Reid Epstein: “Our Revolution, the political organization that Senator BERNIE SANDERS launched in 2016, is throwing its weight behind the movement to vote Uncommitted in Michigan’s Democratic primary. … On Wednesday, Our Revolution is planning to send an email to 87,000 members in Michigan and to about 225,000 supporters in other states, encouraging them to vote Uncommitted in the state’s Feb. 27 primary to ‘push Biden to change course on Gaza now.’”
| | | | A message from American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House will meet at 10 a.m. Agriculture Secretary TOM VILSACK will testify before the Ag Committee at 10 a.m. VA Secretary DENIS McDONOUGH will testify before the Veterans Affairs Committee at 10:15 a.m. The Foreign Affairs Committee will hold a hearing on the Houthi threat in Yemen at 2 p.m. The Senate is out. 3 things to watch …
- The second time was the charm for the House GOP, who managed to impeach DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS on a 214-213 vote last night (more below). But what will the Senate do? Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER said the chamber won’t receive the articles until after Presidents Day, and while senators will be quickly sworn in for a trial, Burgess Everett says to expect a quick vote to dismiss or bottle it up in committee.
- Whatever the political fallout, the immediate governing implications of Suozzi’s win are clear enough: The GOP’s thin majority is further trimmed, and no help is likely coming until California voters select McCarthy’s replacement on May 21. Something else to keep an eye on: Will Suozzi seek to reclaim his seat on Ways and Means? There’s a Democratic vacancy thanks to the retirement of fellow New Yorker BRIAN HIGGINS.
- The California Senate primary is now less than three weeks away, and the key remaining question is whether front-running Democrat ADAM SCHIFF will face off against Republican STEVE GARVEY or a fellow Democratic lawmaker. There’s no doubt whom Schiff wants: He’s launching a new $10 million ad campaign today putting Garvey front and center, raising his profile among GOP voters in a bid to box out fellow Dems.
At the White House Biden will hold a lunch with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN this afternoon. VP KAMALA HARRIS will join Biden in the Oval Office later today to receive the President’s Daily Briefing. Later, Harris will depart the White House en route to Munich, Germany.
| | | | YOUR VIP PASS TO THE MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE: Dive into the heart of global security with POLITICO's Global Playbook at the 2024 Munich Security Conference. Gain exclusive insights and in-depth analysis as author Suzanne Lynch navigates the crucial discussions, key players and emerging trends that will shape the international security landscape. Subscribe now to Global Playbook and stay informed. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | CONGRESS
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DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas has made history with his impeachment, though it's going nowhere in the Senate. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP | MAYORKAS IMPEACHED — Last night’s vote made Mayorkas the first Cabinet secretary to be impeached by the House in almost 150 years. GOP Reps. MIKE GALLAGHER (Wis.), KEN BUCK (Colo.) and TOM McCLINTOCK (Calif.) defected on the impeachment attempt both times, but with Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE back this week from cancer treatment, GOP leaders were able to bring the articles against Mayorkas back up. More from Jordain Carney The response: Schumer in a statement called the impeachment “another embarrassment for House Republicans,” adding that they “failed to present any evidence of anything resembling an impeachable offense.” And the White House panned the “baseless” vote: “History will not look kindly on House Republicans for their blatant act of unconstitutional partisanship that has targeted an honorable public servant in order to play petty political games.” Welcome back: Scalise defended Johnson’s decision to press forward with last week’s failed vote in an interview with CNN’s Melanie Zanona: “They felt it was important, there were some members that you know, might have been going back and forth, and to lock them in.” File this one away: House Homeland Security Chair MARK GREEN (R-Tenn.) on whether he’s concerned about Mayorkas’ replacement: “Of course I am, but if that person doesn’t do his job well, we will impeach his ass, too.” More top reads:
- New details from the bribery case against Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) and his wife, NADINE: The scheme allegedly involved a diamond engagement ring and a “James Bond” phone, NYT’s Tracey Tully and Benjamin Weiser report, citing new court documents.
AMERICA AND THE WORLD
|  The uproar and backpedaling over Donald Trump's NATO comments haven't died down yet. | Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images | YOUR LYING EARS — Republican and foreign policy experts close to Trump say that his recent comments encouraging Russia to “do whatever the hell they want” to NATO allies that haven’t met spending targets are being blown out of proportion, Meridith McGraw, Lara Seligman and Alex Ward report this morning: “Efforts to defend, soften or add nuance to Trump’s words suggest that there’s an understanding, even among the far right, that such a move would carry huge geopolitical consequences. And they’re taking a page from an old playbook to try and calm nerves around it.” The reporting comes after Biden lambasted Trump’s NATO comments in an address yesterday as “dangerous”: “For God’s sake. It’s dumb. It’s shameful. It’s dangerous. It’s un-American. When America gives its word, it means something. When we make a commitment, we keep it, and NATO is a sacred commitment. Donald Trump looks at this as if it’s a burden,” Biden said. More from Jennifer Haberkorn Related read: “Yellen Calls Trump’s NATO Dismissal a Threat to Global Economy,” by Bloomberg’s Christopher Condon HOSTAGE NEGOTIATIONS — “Blinken spoke to Paul Whelan, American detained in Russia, on Monday,” by Kelly Garrity
| | | | A message from American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers:   | | | 2024 WATCH
|  President Joe Biden's age continues to be in the spotlight as a central campaign issue. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo | THE AGE-OLD DILEMMA — While much ink has already been spilled over the presidential front-runners’ ages, “the wrinkled and sagging reality staring the nation in the face has become the defining issue of the 2024 campaign" with the release of ROBERT HUR’s special report, Adam Wren writes this morning: “Republicans accused Biden’s handlers of committing ‘elder abuse’ by allowing him to field reporters’ questions about the Hur report. Biden’s campaign, for its part, took to not so subtly suggesting Trump may be struggling with diminished cognition, frequently calling him ‘confused.’” The gist: “Unlike in years past, when propriety dictated treading cautiously around the issue, now campaigns are going to age immediately — and more explicitly than ever before. The emerging front in the presidential campaign is not an argument over ideology, but chronology — and who has the vitality to do the job.” More top reads:
- Return to sender: After private security CEO GAVIN DE BECKER contributed millions of dollars to the super PAC backing ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.’s presidential campaign, the PAC returned nearly all the funds in a transaction that shocked watchdogs, Brittany Gibson reports: “De Becker’s contributions helped the PAC report a high fundraising total that can, in turn, be seen as a sign of legitimacy for the committee. All told, de Becker made $10 million in donations to the super PAC; $9.65 million of which was returned.”
- The Biden campaign is ramping up its efforts to connect with Black voters with a new round of ads set to run this month in battleground states and on several Black media platforms, BET’s Rashad Grove scoops.
MORE POLITICS WHAT-LEY, WORRY? — Trump’s top pick to replace outgoing RNC Chair RONNA McDANIEL is already sparking skepticism among some Republicans. North Carolina GOP Chair MICHAEL WHATLEY, AP’s Brian Slodysko reports, “has been accused by some Republicans of essentially manufacturing his win as state party chairman last year following a chaotic vote … The controversy surrounding Whatley’s election to the GOP’s top political post in North Carolina is one of several emerging signals suggesting challenges ahead.” “If Whatley ultimately becomes RNC chair, he would be charged with leading the effort to defeat President Joe Biden at a time when the party is struggling to raise money and navigating a restless far-right flank. To his critics, Whatley represents more of the same at a time when they’re seeking more dramatic change.” Related reads: “Trump loved RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel — until he didn’t,” by Lara Priluck … “Can this man run Donald Trump’s Republican Party?” by WaPo’s Isaac Stanley-Becker and Josh Dawsey ANOTHER NRSC WIN — “James Craig suspends U.S. Senate campaign, considers Detroit mayoral bid,” by The Detroit News’ Craig Mauger BEYOND THE BELTWAY BIG IN HARRISBURG — “Democrats retain majority in the Pennsylvania House with a 102-100 partisan divide,” by AP’s Brooke Schultz: “JIM PROKOPIAK’s election to the Bucks County seat will give Democrats a 102-100 majority in the House, which they have sought to defend in four special elections in the past year. A Republican lawmaker’s resignation last week shifted the power back to Democrats, and Prokopiak’s win kept it in place.” IMMIGRATION FILES — “Illegal border crossings from Mexico plunge after a record-high December, with fewer from Venezuela,” by AP’s Rebecca Santana and Elliot Spagat FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE — A new Florida law requiring health care facilities that receive Medicaid dollars to ask about immigration status is causing some people to avoid getting treatment due to fear of punishment, Arek Sarkissian reports this morning: “Florida’s law is believed to be the only one in the nation that requires hospitals to ask patients about their immigration status.”
| | | | CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Lloyd Austin was released from the hospital. Elaine Chao lost her sister. Jared Kushner said he wouldn’t join a second Trump administration. Travis Kelce is benefiting from the Inflation Reduction Act. Marjorie Taylor Greene isn’t a “Curb” fan. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Peter Schweizer will release “Blood Money: Why the Powerful Turn a Blind Eye While China Kills Americans” ($25.60), on Feb. 27. The book delves deep into the Chinese Communist Party’s covert operations in America “designed to rip the nation apart — and the U.S. elites who passively allow it.” The cover — The Black Economic Alliance released its “Policy Agenda to Advance Black Work, Wages, and Wealth” this morning, outlining actionable recommendations aimed at addressing centuries of inequality and reshaping the economic future of Black communities. Read the agenda TRANSITIONS — Jonathan Powell is joining the Motion Picture Association as SVP for strategic comms. He most recently was senior adviser/speechwriter for the deputy secretary of State. … Connor Murphy is now deputy government affairs director at Schagrin Associates. He previously was a legislative director for Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio) and is a Joni Ernst alum. … … Ryan Blaney is now a partner in Jones Day’s cybersecurity, privacy and data protection practice. He previously was a partner and co-head of the global privacy and cybersecurity group at Proskauer. … Jaylen Black is now VP of comms and marketing at Planned Parenthood Southeast. She previously was a comms and political consultant and is a Stacey Abrams gubernatorial campaign and Raphael Warnock alum. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Richard Neal (D-Mass.) and Angie Craig (D-Minn.) … Mike Bloomberg … Carl Bernstein … Martha Raddatz … Stephen A. Schwarzman … Oscar Ramirez … Amanda Litman … Ed Patru … former Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.) … DOJ’s Shea Brennan … Social Finance’s Karen Anderson … POLITICO’s Rosmery Izaguirre, Andrew Milligan and Oriana Pawlyk … Terry Gross … Scott Will … Jeremy Robbins … Jon Sawyer … former Rep. Donna Shalala (D-Fla.) … Jaime Horn of JLH Strategies … Ryan Blake … World Wildlife Fund’s Cristina Marcos … William Beach ... Daniel Stublen of Agence France-Presse … Rod Lamkey … Bobby Honold ... Mitch Moonier … NYT’s Alan Blinder … Brooke Lierman … Erik Potholm of SRCP Media … Paul Miller of Miller/Wenhold Capitol Strategies … Ann Tait Hall … Rebecca Fertig Cohen of CKR Solutions … Marty Markowitz … Evan Kraus ... Jen Pihlaja … Brandon Renz of House Oversight … Eirik Kollsrud of UNRWA … BGR Group’s Fred Turner … RTX’s Jeff Shockey … House Appropriations Committee’s Elizabeth Oien … Carlos Sanchez of Sen. Ben Ray Luján’s (D-N.M.) office … Jeff Van Oot of Sen. Peter Welch’s (D-Vt.) office (3-0) Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers: EPA is set to finalize a regulation designed to end the sale of new gas and diesel cars. This proposal would force automakers to phase out internal combustion engine vehicles – the most widely available, accessible, and affordable cars driven by the majority of Americans. The Biden EPA is rushing to do this before we are ready, and regardless of what American drivers want, need, and can afford.
Even worse, phasing out gas and diesel-powered vehicles for electric vehicles jeopardizes our hard-won American energy security, which is built on American-made and American-grown fuels. Instead, we will be reliant on China, the dominant player in the electric vehicle supply chain now and for the foreseeable future.
President Biden: It’s not too late to act. Stop the EPA’s misguided car ban. We need vehicle policies that work for all Americans, our economy, and our energy security. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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