🤘The New Message Is “Higher… Until Summer,” For Now

Good morning. It's a busy week to be a member of the Federal Reserve. A number of the central...

It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. It's a busy week to be a member of the Federal Reserve. A number of the central bank's presidents are making speeches around the country this week. And the theme is similar. Interest rates likely won't come down until at least the summer. Given that markets are making new all-time highs, that should be a problem. And given that high interest rates don't penalize investors as much for holding cash, it should be a good sign not to go all-in on stocks at all-time highs now, especially as Tuesday's inflation data shows we're not out of the woods yet. However, the Fed has a history of cutting rates because events drive them to, such as a banking crisis. So investors may not want to cheer the start of rate cuts, whenever they do occur. Now here's the rest of the news: Sponsored Content Step by Step Guide to Revolutionize Your Options Trading Want a step-by-step guide to walk you through how to maximize your Options strategies? Best of all, anybody can learn how to do it. New Options traders... Experienced Options traders... It doesn't matter if you're retired… or planning to retire... It doesn't matter if you don't have millions of dollars to invest… All you need is about 1 hour to learn how you can execute this simple strategy. And we'll show you in a free live class. Do NOT miss this opportunity to revolutionize your Options trading. MARKETS DOW 38,272.75 -1.35% S&P 4,953.17 -1.37% NASDAQ 15,655.60 -1.80% *As of market close • Markets sank on Tuesday, as the latest monthly inflation read came in higher than expected. • Oil rose 1.2 percent, closing at $77.81 per barrel. • Gold slid 1.4 percent, ending at $2,006 per ounce. • Cryptocurrencies trended lower, with bitcoin at $49,454 at the stock market close. Today's TOP TIPS Continue to Stock Up on Market-Lagging Brands Long-term investors still have a wide shopping list of great companies trading well off their highs. Many stocks outside of the big tech space make the grade. Especially companies that have strong brands. The past few years have shown that high inflation can weigh on a company's profitability. But a great company can keep raising prices faster than they lose customers. In that situation, they're set up well for long-term inflation, even if it slows back to lower levels. » FULL STORY Insider Activity Report: V F Corporation (VFC) Bracken Darrell, President and CEO of V F Corporation (VFC), recently bought 65,360 shares. The buy increased his stake by 83 percent, and came to a total cost of $1,005,296. This is the first insider buy of the year. However, last year saw over a dozen insider buys, largely from directors, but also a 10,000 share buy from the company's interim President and CEO. The last insider sale occurred in May 2022. » FULL STORY Unusual Option Activity: Exxon Mobil (XOM) Oil and gas giant Exxon Mobil (XOM) has seen its shares slide 13 percent over the past year, as energy prices have traded in a range. One trader sees shares trending lower through the middle of next year. That's based on the June 2025 $125 puts. With 492 days until expiration, 5,204 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 113, for a 46-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $24.20 to make the bearish bet. » FULL STORY IN OTHER NEWS • Barkin Cautious on Rate Cuts Tom Barkin, Richmond Federal Reserve President, has noted that it makes sense for patience on interest rate cuts. The Fed official is the latest to continue the bank's official policy stance of keeping interest rates higher until inflation shows further signs of a decline before scaling back on interest rates. • Bezos to Save Over $600 Million in Miami Move Amazon (AMZN) founder Jeff Bezos is saving over $600 million in taxes. Last year, Bezos moved from the Seattle area to Miami. His plans to unload 50 million shares of Amazon would have cost him over $610 million in taxes in Washington state, which imposed a 7 percent capital gains tax on the sale of securities valued at over $250,000. • Price-Conscious Consumers Weighing on Fast Food Yum Brands (YUM), the parent company of KFC and Taco Bell reports that consumers are pushing back amid rising food costs. Taco Bell, which saw same-store sales rise by 11 percent last year, is now forecasting only a 3 percent rise. As with other chains, Yum will look to simplify its menu with less expensive options. • White Collar Jobs Under Threat by AI For decades, rising automation trends were freeing up physical labor, a move that threatened blue collar jobs. Now, the rise of AI is threatening white collar jobs, as the use of AI can simplify many tasks that once took substantial time and mental effort by a human. • Bitcoin ETFs Continue to See Rising Volume Bitcoin rose to a new 52-week high over $50,000 this week. The move comes as bitcoin ETFs report strong demand one month into trading. In total, the 11 issuers of bitcoin ETFs report a collective $28.35 billion in asset under management, and trading volume clocks in at $1.38 billion. S&P 500 MOVERS TOP ECL 8.939% WM 5.907% LDOS 5.718% HWM 4.921% INCY 2.749% BOTTOM MCO 8.086% BIIB 7.273% IVZ 6.811% ZTS 6.686% ALB 6.445% Quote of the Day If you want to understand why we're having inflation come down at such a full employment economy, this is why: Because the American workers aren't asking for a raise. Not really, not in the way that they could. Wages should go up by the sum of consumer inflation plus productivity. Right now productivity growth is strong, and that means there's nothing wrong with 4% wage [growth]. - David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, on why inflation is coming down even with a full-employment economy, which typically puts inflationary pressure on companies. 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