☢️Inflation Data Suggests Interest Rate Cuts May Not Even Happen this Year

Good morning. GDP rose by 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter of last year. Personal consumption...

It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Friday's PCE data, which looks at inflation from the standpoint of producers, rather than consumers, is another sign that interest rates will stay higher for longer. Investors started the year with the notion that interest rates could start going down by March. Then, it turned into the summer. But as long as inflation is showing some signs of strength, it's possible that the first interest rate cut won't happen until the fall, or even in 2025. For now, the stock market doesn't seem to mind, since the next direction for interest rates will be down. But the longer rates stay higher, the greater the chance of something breaking in the financial system. Investors should start to get cautious after the market's recent run – the second half of February tends to perform much more poorly than the first half. And traders may want to look at some downside protection in the coming weeks. Now here's the rest of the news: Sponsored Content Meet the Company Literally Inventing the Wheel When you're one of TIME Magazine's Best Innovations of 2023, investors listen. But when you also have the potential to reduce 28% of microplastics in oceans, the whole world is onboard. Meet the company literally reinventing the wheel. Global Air Cylinder Wheels (GACW) is taking investors as they pioneer what could be a global shift from rubber tires to wheels that are made 100% of steel and don't shed rubber. The global tire market is worth more than $300B, and GACW is carving out a niche in the Off-the-Road (OTR) vehicle market as a start. They already have $3M+ in sales and aim to later target bicycles, automotive, and military vehicles with a more safe and cost-efficient wheel. With 3,000+ investors so far, this is only the beginning for GACW. Invest in GACW to be part of their global expansion effort. Disclosure: This is a paid advertisement for Global Air Cylinder Wheels, Inc. Reg CF offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.globalaircylinderwheels.com MARKETS DOW 38,627.99 -0.37% S&P 5,005.57 -0.48% NASDAQ 15,775.65 -0.82% *As of market close • Markets were closed yesterday, in observation of President's Day. Today's TOP TIPS This Unloved Commodity Play May Be Forming a Bottom Commodity markets make big moves both higher and lower. Those moves can last for years. Sometimes, there's a broader trend that can push a commodity market in one direction or another. Right now, the lithium market is out of favor. The biggest driver of demand is for electric vehicles (EVs). With a number of automakers scaling back EV plans, lithium prices have been dropping. But there are some signs of a turnaround. » FULL STORY Insider Activity Report: Mr. Cooper Group (COOP) Michael Weinbach, President at Mr. Cooper Group (COOP), recently bought 17,000 shares. The buy is a new position for the President, and it came to a total cost of $1,209,720. This marks the first insider buy over the past two years. The company CEO has been a regular and steady seller of shares, with over a dozen sales amounting to 2-4 percent of his potion nearly monthly. » FULL STORY Unusual Options Activity: Antero Resources (AR) Oil and gas exploration firm Antero Resources (AR) is down 23 percent over the past year, as energy prices have been trending lower. One trader sees further downside in the coming weeks. That's based on the April 2024 $22 puts. With 58 days until expiration, 6,411 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 141, for a 45-fold rise in volume on the trade.  The buyer of the puts paid $0.96 to make the bearish bet. » FULL STORY IN OTHER NEWS • U.S. Government About to Spend More in Debt Interest than Defense A combination of massive debts totaling over $34 trillion, combined with rising interest rates, are leading to soaring debt costs for the U.S. government. The country is now on track to spend more on interest payments on the debt than on national defense. All told, the U.S. government will be on track to spend an additional $1.1 trillion in interest over the coming decade. • Gasoline Prices Tick Higher Gas prices rose to a national average of $3.28 per gallon last week, according to data from the AAA. That's a rise of 11 cents over the prior week. Gas supplies are being limited by refinery outages, even as overall oil prices have held steady under $80 per barrel. • Toast to Lay Off 10 Percent of Workforce Restaurant management software company Toast (TOST) is laying off about 550 employees, or 10 percent of staff. The company announced the layoffs during its earnings, which the company beat. Toast also announced at the same time, as well as the introduction of a share buyback program. • FTC Looking to Modify Deepfake Rule The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is looking to modify a rule that bans the impersonation of businesses or government agencies to cover all consumers. That would prevent fraudster from using AI tools to impersonate any individual, including the use of voice cloning. • Cryptocurrency Market Cap Nears $2 Trillion The rise of cryptocurrency prices over the past few weeks has sent the entire space to a market cap of about $2 trillion, its highest level in about two years. Many cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin, have been on the rise as interest in digital assets has increased following 2022's drop. S&P 500 MOVERS TOP AMAT 6.235% VMC 5.329% DG 4.762% ALB 4.136% TRGPEPAM 3.629% BOTTOM DLR 8.748% ADBE 7.186% PARA 4.567% UBER 3.889% CARR 3.836% Quote of the Day The seesaw market is really reflective of this tug-of-war between high sticky inflation — which suggests no near-term rate cuts — and strong earnings and other signs of a robust economy, which underscores investors belief that there's more growth ahead for stocks. - Greg Bassuk, chief investment officer at AXS Investments, on the market's back-and-forth trading in the past week as inflation has continued to show some signs of strength. Sponsored Content Meet the Company Literally Inventing the Wheel When you're one of TIME Magazine's Best Innovations of 2023, investors listen. But when you also have the potential to reduce 28% of microplastics in oceans, the whole world is onboard. Meet the company literally reinventing the wheel. Global Air Cylinder Wheels (GACW) is taking investors as they pioneer what could be a global shift from rubber tires to wheels that are made 100% of steel and don't shed rubber. The global tire market is worth more than $300B, and GACW is carving out a niche in the Off-the-Road (OTR) vehicle market as a start. They already have $3M+ in sales and aim to later target bicycles, automotive, and military vehicles with a more safe and cost-efficient wheel. With 3,000+ investors so far, this is only the beginning for GACW. Invest in GACW to be part of their global expansion effort. Disclosure: This is a paid advertisement for Global Air Cylinder Wheels, Inc. Reg CF offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.globalaircylinderwheels.com Not sure the best way to get started? 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