How to decipher a Capitol Hill negotiation

A play-by-play preview of the day’s congressional news

May 24, 2023 View in browser   By Daniella Diaz and Katherine Tully-McManus With an assist from Jordain Carney Reps. Garret Graves (R-La.) and Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) indicated there is still a significant gap between what they want on government spending and what the White House will accept. | Francis Chung/POLITICO DEBT CLOCK — There are EIGHT DAYS until the earliest possible federal default, according to the Treasury Department’s most recent projection. WHAT’S IN A PHRASE? — By all accounts, Tuesday produced no breakthroughs in the ongoing debt limit talks, with a meeting of top negotiators breaking up after meeting for about two hours with no firm plans to reconvene. The day, however, produced lots of words — with GOP negotiators Reps. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) and Garret Graves (R-La.) speaking with reporters for more than 45(!) minutes. Said Graves, “There are probably 50 categories we’re discussing … and some of them we’ve made substantial progress … and in other ones we’re still really far apart. There’s some areas that I think we’re very close.” Graves, you’ll notice, deftly managed to say something and nothing all at once. So what do those words really mean? Are the talks on the verge of collapse? Or is a deal right around the corner? Well, luckily your Huddle writers have been covering Washington long enough to know that what gets said outside the room doesn’t necessarily reflect what is happening inside of it. We’ve trained our ears, though, to help you translate some of the common parlance of a congressional negotiation: "It was a productive meeting." Don't mistake “productive” for progress. We just aren't threatening to assault each other. We’re still a ways apart on the policy. "They're being unreasonable.” Time to play the political blame game and rally our side now that talks are getting down to brass tacks. "We have no plans to meet again." Now we're playing hardball. Time to escalate and see if the other side will move closer to our position. [Silence]. We’re making progress. The rule of thumb is, the less need we see for public posturing, the better. "We're on the 10-yard line." We’ve got a deal vaguely in sight, but there are some last-minute details that could still mess it up. “We have a framework.” We agree on what we disagree on. Who knows how long it will take to agree on the rest. "We have a deal in principle." We’re hashed out the toughest issues, but a lot of details still need to be settled. There’s still plenty of time for backlash to scuttle everything. “We have a deal!” We’ve shaken hands, we might even have popped some champagne — but we still need to finish writing the text. And who knows what hiccups that will generate. "Nothing is agreed to until everything is agreed to." We’re driving a hard bargain to get that last little detail hammered out. "Time to vote." The deal is done. Remember that old Capitol Hill truism: When you have the votes, you vote. When you don’t have the votes, you keep talking. The state of play: Graves and McHenry indicated there is still a significant gap between what they want on government spending and what the White House will accept. The administration has several offers on the table that Republicans have rejected, including a spending freeze which cuts spending by more than $1 trillion over 10 years. Biden is also pushing for a two-year caps deal, in line with previous bipartisan budget agreements, but the GOP is angling for a longer-term accord. Top White House officials Steve Ricchetti and Shalanda Young did not address reporters as they left McCarthy’s office. When asked during the long scrum whether the White House officials are empowered to reach a deal with the Republicans, McHenry said: “No, I think they put severe constraints on really talented people that are in the room and that is not in service of the deal,” adding: “I want a damn deal to be done.” A long way from tipple-rary: Nancy also heard from McHenry on how the negotiations are going between President Joe Biden and McCarthy: “You have two Irish guys that don't drink. That's a different set-up than Tip O'Neill and Ronald Reagan." Another thing to keep in mind: McCarthy is very new to this. Sarah, Olivia and Jordain are out with new reporting this morning explaining how four years in the minority have left McCarthy, and the entire GOP conference, with little practice at monumental bipartisan negotiations. You need to calm down: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told reporters in Kentucky on Tuesday that he’s in communication with McCarthy and remains “optimistic we’ll get an outcome.” Also FWIW, when McCarthy was asked about the last time he spoke to McConnell, McCarthy responded: “Just the other day." Holiday road: McCarthy also said that, depending on where negotiations stand when House members are set to leave Washington on Thursday, he will likely allow members to go back to their home districts for Memorial Day weekend but remain on call for votes. Related read: When really is the X-date? It’s hard to say. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯, from Kierra Frazier   DON’T MISS POLITICO’S HEALTH CARE SUMMIT: The Covid-19 pandemic helped spur innovation in health care, from the wide adoption of telemedicine, health apps and online pharmacies to mRNA vaccines. But what will the next health care innovations look like? Join POLITICO on Wednesday June 7 for our Health Care Summit to explore how tech and innovation are transforming care and the challenges ahead for access and delivery in the United States. REGISTER NOW.     GOOD MORNING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Wednesday, May 24, where the long weekend is just around the corner. CORRECTION: Tuesday’s Huddle incorrectly referred to a group of new hires in the Congressional Hispanic Caucus (the Democratic group) as part of the Congressional Hispanic Conference (the Republican group). DEMS ON DEBT — White House aides are privately estimating they may need to deliver as many as 100 Democratic votes to ensure an eventual debt limit deal can pass the narrowly divided House, two people familiar with the matter told Adam Cancryn and Jennifer Haberkorn. The informal projection is driven by lingering doubts among Biden officials over House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s ability to convince the vast majority of Republicans to back a bipartisan agreement — and the expectation that dozens of the GOP’s most conservative members are poised to rebel against any sign of a compromise. STUDENT LOAN ROLLBACK — The House starts action today on a resolution to kill Biden’s student debt cancellation program and force the administration to resume collecting payments and interest from tens of millions of Americans. Blocking student debt relief was already in the House GOP’s debt-and-spending bill passed in April, but they’d also reap the benefit of putting moderate Democrats on the record on a standalone measure. The White House has said that Biden would veto it. Our colleague Michael Stratford has a roundup of what you need to know. Tuesday’s truck stop: The House backed a Congressional Review Act resolution to overturn an EPA rule on emissions for heavy-duty trucks that is set to go into effect in 2027. The Senate already cleared the measure, but Biden has pledged to veto it. ETHICS CLEARS SWALWELL — Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) said that he’s in the clear. The California Democrat announced Tuesday the House Ethics Committee has closed their inquiry into allegations that he had a Chinese volunteer on his campaign, and found no wrongdoing. Read the letter. In a lengthy statement Swalwell described assisting the FBI in a “counterintelligence investigation of a campaign volunteer” and keeping House leaders updated on his participation and cooperation. “Despite the FBI repeatedly saying I was nothing but helpful and never accused of wrongdoing, this complaint was filed by a House Republican,” Swalwell said Tuesday. “It’s time to move on. The bipartisan House Ethics Committee had this case for over two years. They had the power of subpoena. They received answers from me in response to requests for information. Today, they are closing this matter and did not make a finding of any wrongdoing.” PHOTO OF THE DAY Troy Nehls (R-Texas) smoking a cigar on his way out of a vote while a bunch of pageant winners follow behind. | (Francis Chung/POLITICO) HUDDLE HOTDISH What’s the most expensive lip balm you’ve ever bought? QUICK LINKS  Malinowski won’t seek rematch with Kean, from David Wildstein at The New Jersey Globe Hill-favored projects called defense budget’s ‘black hole’, from John M. Donnelly at CQ Roll Call Jimmy Carter, 3 months into hospice, is aware of tributes, enjoying ice cream, from Bill Barrow at The Associated Press Send for Agent BoJo! Boris Johnson dispatched to Texas to shore up Republican support for Ukraine, from POLITICO Europe’s Annabelle Dickson in Dallas Republican John Kennedy: southern plain-talk or Foghorn Leghorn shtick? from Drew Hawkins in The Guardian Objection to sexual, LGBTQ content propels spike in book challenges, from Hannah Natanson at The Washington Post ‘Huge backlash’: Parties ramp up pressure on Biden and McCarthy to hold the line in debt talks, from Melanie Zanona, Annie Grayer and Manu Raju at CNN TRANSITIONS  Meg Spencer is now press secretary for Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.). She previously was a social media associate for executive and influencer strategy at the Obama Foundation and is a Jason Crow and Susan Wild alum. Sarita Williams is now press secretary for Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.). She previously was comms director for Maryland Speaker of the House Adrienne Jones.   GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE.     TODAY IN CONGRESS The House convenes at 10 a.m. for morning hour and noon for legislative business. First and last votes are expected at 4:30 p.m. The Senate is out. AROUND THE HILL 2 p.m. House Oversight and Accountability Health Care and Financial Services Subcommittee hearing on “A Failure of Supervision: Bank Failures and the San Francisco Federal Reserve.” (2154 Rayburn) 2:30 p.m. Progressive Caucus leaders hold a press conference on the threat of defaulting. (Studio A) 4 p.m. House Administration Committee holds a business meeting to adopt regulations providing that each member, officer, and employee of the House of Representatives complete training in the workplace rights and responsibilities applicable to offices and employees under Part A of Title II of the Congressional Accountability Act of 1995. (1310 Longworth) TRIVIA TUESDAY’S WINNER: Bradley Jaye correctly answered that both Teddy Roosevelt and Franklin D. Roosevelt served as Assistant Secretary of the Navy before they became president. TODAY’S QUESTION: Which soldier fought in the American Revolutionary War disguised as a man? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to ktm@politico.com. GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning. Follow Katherine and Daniella on Twitter: @ktullymcmanus and @DaniellaMicaela   Follow us

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