Hi, Suzanne Lynch here, POLITICO’s chief Brussels correspondent and host of the EU Confidential podcast bringing you today’s Global Insider. It’s been a busy few days here in Brussels — EU foreign and defense ministers have just wrapped up two days of meetings, the future of Ukraine is under scrutiny at the German Marshall Fund’s annual Brussels Forum event, and already focus is turning to July’s NATO summit in Vilnius, with NATO foreign ministers due to meet next week in Oslo. UKRAINE’S NATO DANCE GLOBAL INSIDER INTERVIEW: Less than two months until NATO’s Vilnius summit, Global Insider sat down with someone who knows a thing or two about the alliance — former Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. Music to Kyiv’s ears: Rasmussen, who has also served as prime minister of Denmark, said that the 75th anniversary of the alliance next year could be “an excellent opportunity to invite Ukraine to start the final negotiations on joining NATO.” In the meantime, security guarantees should be issued to Ukraine, he said, “to guarantee Ukraine's security until they can join NATO.” He added: “Ukraine will become a member of NATO — this is still the position of NATO. Now, the time has come to go beyond that language.” But, but, but … He dismissed the argument that this would be seen as a provocation by Russia. “First of all, we should never ever give in to blackmail, because if we give in to blackmail is the same as surrendering to the autocrat,” he said. “Secondly, Ukraine was attacked, not because it was a NATO member, but because it was in a gray zone. So the best way of guaranteeing Ukrainian security in the future would be to allow Ukraine into NATO.” Background: Ukraine’s membership aspirations are likely to be a key focus of the July summit. The official position of the alliance? Everyone believes that Ukraine should join eventually — just not yet. (NATO agreed in principle that Ukraine should join at the Bucharest summit in 2008, but there has been little progress on its membership path since then.) Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba set out why Ukraine should join the alliance last month, blasting NATO for failing to live up to its 2008 promises. “It is time for the alliance to stop making excuses and start the process that leads to Ukraine’s eventual accession,” he wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine in an op-ed published last month. Realpolitik: But some of NATO’s largest members are wary of accelerating Ukraine’s bid, insisting that the best support they can give is helping Kyiv win the war. Nonetheless, the alliance will be under pressure to offer Ukraine something tangible, not least a pathway to membership, at the July gathering. 7-point plan: Rasmussen is also advocating a seven-point peace plan or “Ukraine charter” based loosely on the Marshall Plan, which was outlined at the Copenhagen Security Summit earlier this month. This includes security guarantees for Ukraine; full restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, including Crimea; the creation of a Nuremberg-style special tribunal; and a reconstruction plan for Ukraine. “These principles are necessary to demonstrate solidarity but at the same time to create a frame for a future security architecture in Europe,” he said. Hitting the road: Speaking of Kuleba, the foreign minister is currently on a trip to Africa, the latest effort by the Ukrainians to reach out beyond the transatlantic alliance for support, following President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s drop-in at the Arab Summit and G7. Zelenskyy has suggested a peace conference be held in July. Denmark has said it would host, but emphasized the need for countries like India, Brazil and China to be involved.
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