| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
The receiving station for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline stands at twilight on Feb. 2, 2022 near Lubmin, Germany. | Sean Gallup/Getty Images | With help from Jonathan Lemire, Connor O'Brien, Maggie Miller, Lee Hudson and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The story of the day is about how U.S. intelligence currently points to a “pro-Ukraine group” destroying the Nord Stream pipelines last September, shedding light on a great mystery and threatening to complicate the fragile politics of supporting Ukraine. According to the New York Times’ ADAM ENTOUS, JULIAN BARNES and ADAM GOLDMAN, some combination of Ukrainian and Russian nationals, with the help of “experienced divers,” planted explosives on the pipeline, leading to roughly $500 million in damages. Neither Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY nor any of his senior aides had anything to do with it, per the reported intel. There are a lot of unknowns, namely who was in the group, who directed the operation, and who paid for it. “There are no firm conclusions about” what actually happened, per the NYT. A congressional aide, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence, told NatSec Daily that “people linked to Ukraine probably did it” but that nothing is definitive. “It wasn't us [and] probably not the Russians, though I think that theory is undervalued,” the Hill staffer said. There had been chatter in intelligence circles over recent months that U.S. officials were zeroing in on the possibility that the disruption was a pro-Ukraine move, not a pro-Kremlin one. After all, Kyiv had long railed against the Russia-to-Germany natural gas pipelines while Moscow backed them for financial enrichment and greater influence in the heart of Europe. Asked about the NYT’s reporting in a Tuesday news conference, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said that he wouldn’t get ahead of results from three probes into the incident by Germany, Sweden and Denmark. “It was an act of sabotage,” he said, “but we need to let these investigations conclude.” New reporting in German media Tuesday indicates that Berlin’s investigation revealed “traces [that] lead in the direction of Ukraine,” identifying a team of six commandos — five men and one woman — that carried out the attack using a yacht rented from a Poland-based company. “Investigators found traces of explosives on the table in the cabin” of the vessel, per a translation of the Zeit Online report. “The group consisted of a captain, two divers, two diving assistants and a doctor.” If this all turns out to be true — and we hasten to note it may not be — it could cause some serious problems for Germany. Berlin “will not want this to have an influence or be portrayed as having an influence on their Ukraine support,” said LIANA FIX, a fellow who follows German and European politics at the Council on Foreign Relations, noting the news could provide “ample ammunition for Ukraine-policy critics.”
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | KIDNAPPED AMERICANS DEAD: Two of the four Americans kidnapped in Mexico on Friday were found dead today while the other two survived, according to the New York Times’ MARIA ABI-HABIB, NATALIE KITROEFF and JACK NICAS. A senior Mexican official told the NYT that the two survivors are safe and receiving medical attention. “LATAVIA ‘TAY’ MCGEE, her cousin SHAEED WOODARD and friends ZINDELL BROWN and ERIC JAMES WILLIAMS, traveling in a minivan with North Carolina plates, had reportedly just crossed the border from Brownsville, Tex., to the border city of Matamoros, Mexico, when they were fired on and abducted by unidentified assailants,” the Washington Post’s LEO SANDS reports. One of the four was in Mexico for a medical procedure. "Two U.S. citizens were returned to the United States, the bodies of two other U.S. citizens killed in the same incident were also recovered," said State Department spokesperson NED PRICE. The incident has lawmakers fuming. Rep. VICENTE GONZALEZ (D-Texas), who represents the border district neighboring Matamoros, told CNN’s JAKE TAPPER Monday that the U.S. should treat cartels like terrorists. “This is really the tip of the iceberg and this is not an isolated incident. This happens all the time,” he said. “We need to be targeting cartels as if they were terrorists, because, at the end of the day, they are.” Asked about Gonzalez’s proposal, NSC spokesperson Kirby said it was too early to discuss policy changes. FACIAL RECOGNITION IN THE U.S.?: The FBI and Defense Department have actively researched the development of facial recognition technology that could potentially be used to identify people via street cameras and drones, according to documents obtained by The Washington Post’s DREW HARWELL. The thousands of internal documents were unveiled in response to an American Civil Liberties Union public records lawsuit filed against the FBI. Together, the pages explain how closely government officials worked with academic researchers to refine surveillance tech that could be used without civilians' awareness or consent. During the programs, FBI scientists and some of the country’s leading computer vision experts worked to design and test software that could process “truly unconstrained face imagery” captured in public places like subway stations and street corners, according to the documents. Such technology is widely used in China, where it has drawn public backlash from Western officials in recent years. MISSILES ON MIGS: The U.S. military is looking into the possibility of integrating advanced Western air-to-air missiles with Ukraine’s Soviet-era fighter jets, our own LARA SELIGMAN reports. It’s the latest attempt to jury-rig old platforms with new capabilities ahead of what’s expected to be a bloody spring. If successful, it would be the first time the U.S. has given Ukrainian aircraft the capability to fire air-to-air missiles, some of which are already in their inventory. Officials are studying whether AIM-120 advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles — designed to be fired from Western fighter jets such as the U.S.-made F-16 — can be mounted on Ukraine’s existing MiGs, according to two Defense Department officials and another person involved in the discussions. AUSTIN IN MIDDLE EAST: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN made an unannounced trip to Baghdad on Tuesday, where he promised to continue to battle the Islamic State until the group is defeated, Matt reports. Austin’s trip comes ahead of the 20th anniversary of the invasion of Iraq, led by the United States, that ousted former leader Saddam Hussein. During the visit, he met with Iraqi Prime Minister MOHAMMED SHIA AL-SUDANI and Defense Minister THABET MUHAMMAD AL-ABBASI. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | WHAT DESANTIS SAW AT GTMO: Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS arrived at Guantanamo Bay as a 27-year-old Navy lawyer and spent time there speaking to detainees and bolstering his political resume, McClatchy’s MICHAEL WILNER reports in the Miami Herald. “Everyone I’ve ever talked to said he was smart,” CHARLES SWIFT, a former career Navy lawyer, said of DeSantis’ supervisors. “But he had not joined the JAG corps for a career. What I take away as an intelligent observer is that Ron DeSantis was a politically motivated individual who saw a value to military service.” But DeSantis, who enlisted during his second year of Harvard Law School, was respected in his role. Retired Navy Captain PATRICK MCCARTHY, a staff judge advocate at GTMO in 2006, said he would send DeSantis “to speak with detainees when there were any complaints to ensure they were lawfully addressed.” “DeSantis served honorably and professionally in a very complex mission,” McCarthy said of the now-governor’s at least six months at GTMO. Detainees, however, say DeSantis turned a blind eye to allegations of abuse and torture. “He didn’t start as a very bad guy, but the course of events, I think, led him to have no choice,” said ABDEL AZIZ, who was detained for 13 years without being charged with a crime. “Many of the very big leadership, if they want to be harsh, it’s hard from the lower people to take a different turn. He aligned with the bad people in the end.” DeSantis has previously said he supported GTMO’s operations and that he believes the camp should remain open.
| | | WARNINGS FROM THE TOP: GEN. PAUL NAKASONE, head of both the National Security Agency and U.S. Cyber Command, warned Tuesday of the potential for Russia to launch a renewed cyber assault on Ukraine and its allies as part of a spring offensive, our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in. “We’re watching this very carefully,” Nakasone testified to the Senate Armed Forces Committee during an open hearing on the posture of U.S. Cyber Command. “As Russia looks at armaments coming in the country, as Russia looks at different support, how do they react?” Nakasone noted that his agencies were keeping an eye on the safety of U.S. critical infrastructure as well, which have been under increased threat from Russian hackers since the invasion of Ukraine last year, and that his agencies are working with both the FBI and DHS on this mission. “This is something we are working on closely on every single day,” Nakasone said. The general also warned of threats from China in cyberspace, particularly as the threat for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan increases, and as officials warn that China may use cyberattacks against the U.S. to decrease agreement amongst Americans for supporting Taiwan. Nakasone described China in cyberspace as “a very capable force” and “a very formidable foe.”
| | | ADMIRAL CASHES IN: Retired U.S. Admiral JOHN RICHARDSON owned a company that received a government contract to advise Australian defense leaders on securing submarine technology from the U.S. and United Kingdom, The Washington Post’s CRAIG WHITLOCK and NATE JONES report. Richardson owns Briny Deep, a one-person Virginia-based firm, and also serves on the board of directors for defense and nuclear companies. The consulting gig is the latest among former U.S. Navy leaders who’ve secured high-paying contracts by advising Australian leaders. Experts believe U.S. leaders increasingly advising foreign countries could raise questions regarding how impartial they’re being when offering expertise. MILITARY METAVERSE?: Lockheed Martin and Korea Aerospace Industries announced a new partnership with Red 6 to install the augmented reality technology into the TF-50 trainer jet, our own LEE HUDSON writes in. The system would allow pilots to interact with aircraft and targets on the ground and in the air through virtual reality. The idea is to avoid costly flights during training, Red 6 founder and CEO DANIEL ROBINSON tells Lee. The company has similar agreements with Boeing and BAE Systems. The plan is to install the new technology in the T-50 in the third or fourth quarter of this year, Robinson said.
| | | | DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID. | | | | | | | | TIKTOK BILL: Sens. MARK WARNER (D-Va.) and JOHN THUNE (R-S.D.) unveiled a bill aimed at restricting Chinese tech usage in the United States, including the popular social media platform TikTok. The bill, co-sponsored with six senators from each party, grants the Commerce Department the ability to restrict TikTok — up to a full ban — as well as other hardware, software and mobile apps, Warner said on MSNBC on Tuesday. That includes things like AI, quantum computing, and “a host of other new domains, where we're going to see foreign technologies, I believe, pose national security concerns.” “We need a comprehensive, risk-based approach that proactively tackles sources of potentially dangerous technology before they gain a foothold in America, so we aren’t playing Whac-A-Mole and scrambling to catch up once they’re already ubiquitous,” Warner said. In a statement, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said the administration supports the legislation, urging both parties “to act quickly to send it to the president’s desk. The senators were not the only officials to warn of threats from TikTok on Tuesday. Nakasone told the Senate Armed Services Committee Tuesday that “TikTok concerns me.” “One is the data that they have, secondly is the algorithm, and they control who has the algorithm, third is the broad platform,” Nakasone testified in regard to threats from the social media platform. “Influence operations…it’s not only the fact that you can influence something, but you can also turn off the message as well when you have such a large population of listeners.” SENATE STEPS INTO AUMF BREACH: The Senate is inching closer to a long-delayed vote to repeal a pair of decades-old war authorizations, after a bipartisan effort to scrub them came up short last year, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN writes in, The Senate Foreign Relations Committee plans to vote Wednesday on a bill from Sens. TIM KAINE (D-Va.) and TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.) on Wednesday to repeal the 2002 Iraq War and 1991 Gulf War authorizations. Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER, who has promised a vote to rein in the outdated war powers dating back to last Congress, is vowing the full Senate will vote on the bill this month. Doing so would coincide with the 20th anniversary of the U.S. invasion of Iraq. The House has voted several times to repeal the Iraq War resolution, including in last year's must-pass defense bill, but the measure has never cleared the Senate. Proponents see it pass with a wide bipartisan margin when it heads to the Senate floor. "We've already had 13 Republicans signed up to vote affirmatively," Young said of support among the GOP. "It wouldn't surprise me if we hit 70 votes from the entire Senate." 'STEP UP' 2: Senate Armed Services ranking member ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) is predicting a lackluster defense budget when the Biden administration unveils its request this week and wants Congress to act to boost Pentagon spending, also per O’Brien. Lawmakers tacked $45 billion onto Biden's defense request for this year. He'll likely seek an increase for the fiscal 2024 budget, but it's unknown exactly how much. And defense hawks like Wicker aren't likely to be impressed. "This committee led the bipartisan charge to increase the defense budget in last year's cycle," Wicker said at a hearing today. "I frankly have little confidence that the administration's budget request will be sufficient." "If it is not, this committee will again need to step up to ensure that our military has the resources it needs to defend the nation," he added.
| | | ‘CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES’: China’s new foreign minister QIN GANG came out swinging in his debut press conference Monday night, warning that U.S. policies toward China were pushing the two countries toward potential conflict, our own PHELIM KINE reports. Using the two-hour briefing to denounce the U.S. on topics ranging from Taiwan weapon sales to the war in Ukraine, Qin accused the Biden administration of policies designed to “contain and suppress China in all respects” driven by what he called a “hysterical neo-McCarthyism” that was inflicting serious harm on bilateral relations. “If the United States does not hit the brake, but continues to speed down the wrong path … there will surely be conflict and confrontation, and who will bear the catastrophic consequences?” Qin said. NSC spox Kirby responded to those remarks during the Tuesday presser: “We seek a strategic competition with China, we do not seek conflict.” FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — GENERALS WANT CIVILIAN DEFENSE INVESTMENT: The United States needs to invest more in civilian defense agencies like the State Department and USAID, 18 former three- and four-star generals and admirals wrote to the two congressional leaders in both chambers Tuesday. “It is imperative we continue to invest in our nation’s civilian national security toolkit, alongside a strong defense, to ensure our nation can meet the unprecedented scale and scope of today’s global challenges,” they wrote. The letter comes as the appropriations process is underway to determine how much money goes to defense and goes to civilian national security. The former regional or special operations commanders, such as retired Adm. JIM STAVRIDIS and Gen. DAVID PETRAEUS, hope their collective voice “emphasize[s] the importance of civilian national security resources alongside defense spending.”
| | | |   | | | | | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: NICK RAINERI is heading to the Pentagon to serve as legislative adviser to the Office of Strategic Capital, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. He most recently was senior adviser to Rep. BYRON DONALDS (R-Fla.) doing member services work and ran his race for conference chair and helped during the speaker vote.
| | | — DVIR AVIAM-EZRA, POLITICO: As Israel’s democracy erodes, its government delegitimizes criticism — YUDHIJIT BHATTACHARJEE, The New York Times: The Daring Ruse That Exposed China’s Campaign to Steal American Secrets — JUSTIN LOGAN, Cato Institute: Uncle Sucker: Why U.S. Efforts at Defense Burdensharing Fail
| | | — The Association of Defense Communities, 8:30 a.m.:2023 Defense Communities National Summit — The Air and Space Forces Association, 9 a.m.: 2023 Warfare Symposium — The Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 9 a.m.: Spring Symposium: Emerging Technologies — Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: Artificial Intelligence: Risks and Opportunities — House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: U.S. Military Posture and National Security Challenges in North and South America — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: During and After the Fall of Kabul: Examining the Administration’s Emergency Evacuation from Afghanistan — Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 10 a.m.: Worldwide Threats — The United States Institute of Peace, 10 a.m.: Accountability in the “Age of Impunity” — The George Washington University Elliot School of International Affairs, 10 a.m.: Korea Policy Forum: South Korea's Nuclear Armament Debate — The National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, 10:30 a.m.: Weathering Chinese and Russian Competition: Implications for U.S. Interests, Policies, and Strategy — The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: From Minsk to Lasting Peace in Ukraine — The Association of the U.S. Army, 12 p.m.: Soldier Readiness: Suicide Prevention — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 2 p.m.: Geopolitical Competition And Energy Security In Central Asia — House Armed Services Committee, 3 p.m.:FY24 Strategic Forces Posture Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who would handle the daring operation to fire us herself. We also thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who could easily convince us to join a six-person team to blow something up.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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