| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
“I served in the Cold War. A lot of the work that I did had to do with satellite imagery. You can bet that these places in the northern parts of our country have been under surveillance for a really long time,” Rep. Chrissy Houlahan said. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images | With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt NatSec Daily has not been subtle about its feelings on the Chinese balloon: Yes, China spied on the United States in a brazen way, but it’s a far cry from the levels of surveillance, intelligence-gathering and counter-intelligence Beijing conducts with regularity. And yet, the startling images and performative politics in Washington, D.C. inflated the threat, turning what might otherwise have been a one-day curiosity into an issue that will hang over President JOE BIDEN’s State of the Union address Tuesday evening. If cooler heads prevailed in times like this, it might allow the conversation to turn to the nuances of the U.S.-China relationship. But is that even possible in such a polarized atmosphere, though both sides have no problem bashing Beijing? To get a better sense, NatSec Daily called Rep. CHRISSY HOULAHAN (D-Penn.), who serves on the Armed Services, Foreign Affairs and Intelligence committees and represents a politically split district. The former Air Force officer said that constituents at her town halls now ask far more questions about foreign issues than in years past, in large part due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and growing tensions with China. That provides an opening for politicians to hold frank conversations with the people in their communities. “I served in the Cold War. A lot of the work that I did had to do with satellite imagery. You can bet that these places in the northern parts of our country have been under surveillance for a really long time,” she told us. National security shouldn’t be partisan, Houlahan said, or at least be driven by events like this past week’s “hullaballoon,” as she called it. There are also far more interesting conversations to have about the U.S.-China relationship that matter to constituents, she says. Houlahan, for example, is keeping her eyes on mushrooms. You read that right: Mushrooms. “The Chinese are quite interested in mushrooms,” said the lawmaker. “Farming is as much a science as it is an art, and so at one point, the Chinese were very interested in joint ventures with our community. And I cautioned our community that these joint ventures weren't necessarily completely altruistic. So that's the kind of thing that is interesting, when you think about the impact of our national security and our industry, our core competencies. We don't want them to be exported without us really consciously thinking about that.” Maybe it’ll take an inflatable mushroom balloon to get that conversation going in D.C., though.
| | | | JOIN POLITICO ON 2/9 TO HEAR FROM AMERICA’S GOVERNORS: In a divided Congress, more legislative and policy enforcement will shift to the states, meaning governors will take a leading role in setting the agenda for the nation. Join POLITICO on Thursday, Feb. 9 at World Wide Technology's D.C. Innovation Center for The Fifty: America's Governors, where we will examine where innovations are taking shape and new regulatory red lines, the future of reproductive health, and how climate change is being addressed across a series of one-on-one interviews. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | EARTHQUAKE AFTERMATH: The death toll from the 7.8-magnitude earthquake that rocked Turkey and Syria yesterday has risen to more than 5,000, and it's expected to continue rising, the Associated Press’ MEHMET GUZEL, GHAITH ALSAYED and SUZAN FRASER report. Search and rescue teams from around the world descended into the rubble in both countries, digging out survivors in freezing temperatures. But the damage was widespread, making it difficult for rescuers to reach all the areas devastated by the initial quake and a second one, which leveled thousands of buildings. Biden and Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN spoke with Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN and Turkish Foreign Minister MEVLÜT ÇAVUŞOĞLU, respectively, in the hours following the quakes and pledged U.S. assistance with rescue efforts. The natural disaster exacerbates an already fragile region, which has been shaped by Syria’s civil war and refugee crisis. In Turkey alone, more than 8,000 people have been pulled from the debris, while another 380,000 have taken refuge in government shelters or hotels, Turkish Vice President FUAT OKTAY said. CHINA ICBM GROWTH: The Pentagon informed Congress last month that China now has more intercontinental-range missile launchers than the U.S., The Wall Street Journal’s MICHAEL GORDON reports. While the U.S. still has more intercontinental-range, land-based missiles, China’s growth is fueling debate among lawmakers about how the U.S. should respond to Beijing’s nuclear buildup. Amid fallout from that Chinese spy balloon transversing the U.S. and the new GOP-led House hinting at broad spending cuts, lawmakers will need to figure out how to strategically deter a country not bound to any nuclear arms agreement. “Beijing's overall nuclear buildup is forcing the United States to reassess — although not always revise — fundamental elements of U.S. nuclear deterrence strategy and force posture,” said the Center for a New American Security’s JACOB STOKES, author of a new report on China’s nuclear buildup and its effect on the security dynamics between the U.S. and Taiwan. One of those questions to ask, per Stokes: “If in the medium term, the U.S. is still dominant in only two of three legs in the nuclear triad, is that enough to deter the types of behaviors from China we're trying to deter?" RECORD RUSSIANS KILLED: Ukrainian officials said the past day has been the deadliest of the war for Russian troops so far as Moscow pushes tens of thousands of newly mobilized soldiers to the frontlines. Officials said more than 1,000 Russian troops were killed and 25 tanks destroyed since Monday, Reuters’ ASIA STEFAN reports. Russian forces have been homing in on the eastern Donbas region as they attempt to take Bakhmut, a strategic city that’s been the site of intense fighting for months. This week’s move was one of Russia’s biggest offensives of the war so far, but Ukrainian leaders believe Moscow is accumulating weapons and reserves in preparation for an even bigger push in the coming weeks. HOT AIR: A U.S. military report from last year specifically mentions Chinese balloon sightings in Hawaii and Florida while DONALD TRUMP was president, CNN’s ZACHARY COHEN reports. In April, an Air Force report titled “People’s Republic of China High-Altitude Balloon” described a Chinese surveillance balloon that “circumnavigated the globe” in 2019, according to excerpts. It was spotted at an altitude of about 65,000 feet and “drifted past Hawaii and across Florida before continuing its journey.” The report contradicts a top general’s statements on Monday, in which he said the military had not detected the balloons due to a “gap” in the Defense Department’s ability to track certain airborne objects, as our own LARA SELIGMAN reported. Gen. GLEN VANHERCK, head of U.S. Northern Command, cited the issue as the reason that at least three spy balloon flights were not briefed to senior Trump officials at the time. Several former Trump officials also denied the incidents, saying they never received any briefings from the military. Meanwhile, U.S. Fleet Forces released images of the recovery effort for the latest balloon’s payload. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
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The F-35 delivers the unrivaled advantage for our pilots, nation, and partners. A decisive differentiator in near-peer warfare, the F-35 is the most advanced node in 21st century warfare network-centric architecture. Learn more. | | | | | | MANCHIN TO RUN?: Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) didn’t rule out running for president in 2024. “The only thing I'm concerned with is what can I do to bring the country together?” he said during an online event hosted by Semafor, repeatedly refusing to simply say “no.” “I don't know what the next chapter will be. I don't know what the future lies, I really don't. But I can tell you one thing: I feel like most Americans, we've got to come together. Americans want to be united,” he said, “and right now, we’re going further apart.” A run by the centrist Democrat, possibly on an independent ticket, would disrupt the 2024 presidential field and be a nuisance for a Biden reelection effort. Asked by NatSec Daily what a winning national security message would be heading into that cycle, Manchin said Democrats should embrace the Inflation Reduction Act. “We have energy security now that we’ve never had before. “We’re not looking to Iran; we’re not kissing the Saudi’s rear end every day,” the senator said, adding that the U.S. is working closely with partners in Alberta, Canada for energy needs. What’s not a winning message? “Don’t tell me you’re going to take my [gas] stove,” Manchin said. SOTU VOCE: How can Biden hit the right natsec notes in tonight’s State of the Union address, which some see as a possible opening salvo for a 2024 run? Here’s what JOHN GANS, a former Pentagon speechwriter and author of a history of the National Security Council, had to say. “By underscoring his administration’s strong, effective response to Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s adventures in ballooning, the president has the opportunity to further solidify his hold on the traditional, bipartisan center on foreign policy,” he said. “As a result of events, his team’s management, and his opponent’s histrionics, Biden has a rare opportunity for a Democratic president to own the center of gravity on foreign policy. I think he can and will speak to that center, seeking to capitalize on that opportunity and to force his critics on left and right to take more extreme stances."
| | | RECORD-BREAKING CRYPTO THEFT: A United Nations report revealed that North Korea stole more cryptocurrency assets last year than any other year, Reuters' MICHELLE NICHOLS reports. The report alleges that North Korea gained access to more than $630 million in cyber assets, while a private firm estimated the figure may be worth more than $1 billion. U.N. monitors believe that most of the cyberattacks were carried out by the Reconnaissance General Bureau, Pyongyang's central intelligence agency. Some of the group's efforts included extorting ransoms from small and medium-sized companies. A 2019 report from U.N. monitors (which discovered North Korea generated more than $2 billion for its weapons programs through cyberattacks) may point to how Pyongyang’s crypto efforts could fund future missile efforts that risk disrupting the Korean Peninsula.
| | | BE CLEAR, PLEASE: Leading up to SOTU, the aerospace industry called on the president to provide a concrete overview of the administration’s national security goals over the next year. The aerospace industry is “one of the administration’s most important partners, especially as tensions with China grow and the war in Ukraine continues,” Aerospace Industries Association President and CEO ERIC FANNING said in a statement. “Our industry hopes tonight’s address provides a clear vision for the administration’s priorities and presents opportunities for strengthened partnership.” Aerospace leaders are willing to work with the Biden administration on supporting national security through funding, creating technology to continue travel to the moon and helping deter adversaries, Fanning said. ROCKETS: Warsaw continues its astonishing military spending spree, and is poised to ink a $10 billion deal to buy the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System and long-range rockets from the U.S. The HIMARS, which has proven so hugely effective in Ukraine targeting Russian command and control outposts and ammo dumps, has shot to the top of European wishlists over the past several months, though the eighteen systems requested by Poland likely won’t arrive any time soon as Lockheed Martin will need to build them first. The multiple rocket launcher can shoot guided rockets about 50 miles, a range that is increased to around 190 miles if ATACMS are used. The proposed package, approved by the State Department on Tuesday, will include 45 ATACMS along with over 400 other guided rockets. The approval follows the approval of Warsaw’s $3.75 billion request for 116 Abrams M1A1 tanks in December, and the February 2022 approval of the sale of more advanced 250 Abrams M1A2 tanks for $6 billion. The spending spree comes as Poland pushes to transform its military into a NATO powerhouse. Warsaw isn’t only buying American, either. In December, they took delivery of a $5.8 billion haul of South Korean-made armor, including 10 Black Panther tanks and 24 Thunder howitzers.
| | | | DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID. | | | | | | | | BAD BALLOON: House GOP leaders are moving ahead with plans to pass a symbolic measure this week condemning China for dispatching the surveillance balloon over the U.S. And it may even be bipartisan, our own SARAH FERRIS and OLIVIA BEAVERS reported late Monday. Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY and his deputies were in talks Monday with top Democrats about a bipartisan resolution to denounce the spy balloon that drifted across much of the nation last week: “You could see that this week,” McCarthy told reporters. “Our greatest strength is when we speak with one voice to China.” House Republicans had previously discussed a resolution aimed squarely at Biden and his handling of the balloon as they aimed to put it to a vote perhaps on Tuesday, the same day as his State of the Union address. But several members, including House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), privately lobbied GOP leaders to pivot toward a bipartisan censure of the Chinese spy tactics — a rare issue that both sides unite behind. Since then, the GOP’s draft has changed substantially, according to multiple Democrats, and may now receive agreement from across the aisle. BREAST CANCER SCREENINGS: There’s a new bipartisan effort to help veterans access breast cancer screenings. Sens. JON OSSOFF (D-GA.) and CYNTHIA LUMMIS (R-Wy.), who are leading the push, are worried that veterans face long wait times, among other complications, to get the potentially life-saving procedure. “No veteran should have to wait for months, drive for hours, or wade through red tape to get a mammogram when they need one,” the senators wrote to Veterans’ Affairs Secretary DENIS McDONOUGH. “We must prioritize mammography services and ensure that every veteran has access to the comprehensive care they need across our country, including the regular mammograms that are a critical component of women’s medical care.” Sens. MAZIE HIRONO (D-Hawaii), THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.), TAMMY DUCKWORTH (D-Ill.), MARSHA BLACKBURN (R-Tenn.), and AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-Minn.) signed on to the letter.
| | | ‘INSUFFICIENT AND BACKWARD-LOOKING’: Senior officials in the Biden administration held a closed-door briefing yesterday about the Chinese balloon conundrum, and apparently, it wasn’t up to snuff. The meeting was “unspecific, insufficient and backward-looking," according to Rep. DARRELL ISSA’s (R-Calif.) office. Issa, who serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said it also didn’t provide evidence of similar incidents that happened during the Trump administration. "What I took away from this briefing [was] that this administration and not the previous one had plenty of advance warning of an escalating Chinese espionage program, failed to act, and has now humiliated this country on the world stage," Issa told Fox News’ THOMAS CATENACCI and PETER HASSON.
| | | |   | | | | | | — JOSH SCHROEDER recently joined Foreign Policy for America as communications manager. Beforehand, he was the digital communications director for Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. — DANIEL KURTENBACH was named the chief growth officer at the Krach Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University. He joins the institute from DataRobot, where he led the company’s defense and intelligence work.
| | | — ELISABETH BRAW, POLITICO: Deflating China’s trial spy balloon — GINA APOSTOL, The New York Times: Dancing with America Has Been a Curse for the Philippines — Sen. ROGER WICKER, National Review: The Case for Supporting Ukraine Is Strong. But the Biden Administration Isn’t Making It
| | | — The Association of the United States Army, 7:15 a.m.: AUSA Coffee Series Featuring Gen. JAMES RAINEY — The United States Institute of Peace, 9:30 a.m.: Winning the Peace After the War: Supporting Ukrainian Democracy — The Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: Countering Russian threats to global financial security — The Brookings Institution, 11 a.m.: Rethinking China’s rise, restraints, and resilience — House Armed Services Committee, 11 a.m.: State of the Defense Industrial Base — The Atlantic Council, 1 p.m.: A conversation with TÁNAISTE MICHEÁL MARTIN, minister for foreign affairs and defense of Ireland — House Armed Services Committee, 3 p.m.: The Role of Special Operations Forces in Great Power Competition — American University, 4:30 p.m.: Ambassadors Up-Close: Nordic Security Transformed in Finland and Sweden — The Institute of World Politics, 5 p.m.: The Coming Hypersonic Revolution and its Impact on International Security — The East-West Center, 5 p.m.: Hedging Against Risk – Japan in an Uncertain World: Geo-Dynamics of Northeast Asia — The George Washington University Elliot School of International Affairs, 5 p.m.: Peace: Laying the Foundations for a Settlement in Ukraine — Michael V. Hayden Center for Intelligence, Policy and International Security, 7 p.m.: 2023’s National Security Challenges Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who would rather read about mushrooms than anything else we write. We also thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who is the world’s most interesting person.
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