Black lawmakers' growing influence

Plus: Santos in free fall | Sunday, February 05, 2023

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Amazon   Axios Sneak Peek By Josh Kraushaar · Feb 05, 2023 Josh Kraushaar here. Thanks for joining Sunday Sneak Peek, our weekly look ahead at the forces shaping American politics. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,365 words ... 5 minutes.     1 big thing: Black lawmakers' growing influence Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios   Of the 60 Black lawmakers elected to Congress this year, 30 now represent states or districts with a plurality of white voters, according to an Axios analysis. Why it matters: It marks a dramatic shift from the recent past, when most Black lawmakers hailed from majority-minority districts specifically drawn to elect them. In 2014, only eight (of 43) elected Black lawmakers were from plurality-white states or districts. The November election results showed that a historic barrier to Black representation in Congress — namely white voters refusing to support African-American candidates — is rapidly declining. Most of the 30 Black lawmakers representing majority or plurality-white districts are Democrats (25). But Republicans elected five Black members of Congress, all from states and districts with majority-white constituencies. Their recruiting class in 2022 marked the largest number of African American candidates in history. The 118th Congress also features the largest number of Black lawmakers in history. But their growing ideological diversity is creating some new internal tensions. Republican lawmakers championed the fact that Black lawmakers from each party — Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) — were being considered for House speaker. (Donalds offered his name as Republicans struggled to secure the votes to elect Speaker Kevin McCarthy.) But that historic moment irritated progressive Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.), who called the conservative Republican lawmaker "a prop" in a tweet. "Despite being Black, he supports a policy agenda intent on upholding and perpetuating white supremacy," she wrote. Between the lines: The Congressional Black Caucus, whose membership is exclusively Democrats, also has faced divisions between its older members, who mostly hail from safe districts, and a newer cadre of lawmakers who represent swing seats in diverse districts and have a broader outlook. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), the first Black senator to represent Georgia, focused on his bipartisan outreach during his heated re-election campaign against Republican Herschel Walker in November. Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Ohio), a 37-year-old freshman who was the Democrats' leader in the Ohio House, represents one of the biggest battleground districts in the country. The district's home base of Summit County — including Akron and its suburbs — is mostly white. The CBC also is divided between outspoken progressives such as Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.), who often challenge party leadership, and pragmatists in leadership, led by Jeffries and former House Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.). Zoom in: The Supreme Court will decide this spring whether to maintain protections against racial discrimination in drawing congressional districts' boundaries. A lower court found that Alabama's maps violated the Voting Rights Act of 1965 because only one of the state's seven districts is majority Black — not representative of the state's African American population, which is 27% of Alabama's residents. Conservatives have questioned whether those protections need to remain in place, given the increasing willingness of white voters to support Black candidates. The bottom line: Partisanship is a powerful driving factor in politics today, sometimes more than race. Voters are less polarized by racial identity than they were in 2012, enabling Republicans to make small inroads with Hispanic, Black and Asian American voters in recent elections. But as the Washington Post's Perry Bacon Jr. noted in a 2021 FiveThirtyEight piece, voters are still "very polarized by attitudes about racial and cultural issues." Share this story.     2. Manchin feeling the heat Photo: Mark Wilson/Getty Images   Get ready for one of the messiest statewide campaigns in recent West Virginia history — whether or not Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) runs for re-election. West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R) is inching closer to a Senate campaign against Manchin, according to Republicans familiar with his thinking, a move that would give Republicans a strong opportunity to win the red-state seat. Why it matters: Justice would pose the biggest Republican threat Manchin has faced in his 12-year Senate career. Justice, a former Democrat who has a 64% approval rating in the state, 24 percentage points higher than Manchin's, told CBS News he'll decide this month whether he's running. If Justice gets in, he faces a primary against Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.V.), a Freedom Caucus member who plans on going after the governor for supporting wasteful spending. Mooney defeated former GOP Rep. David McKinley last year in a race that hinged on whether West Virginia Republicans favored a lawmaker who could bring federal money back home or one who pledged to hold a fiscally conservative line. They chose the latter. What they're saying: "I've given a lot of thought and I'm still very, very, very seriously considering it," Justice told Wheeling-area television station WTRF. "In fact, I'm probably leaning that way." Between the lines: If he runs, Justice will face questions about his personal finances. A 2019 Fortune magazine profile describes the governor as "a man who has a hard time paying the bills": Since 2016 courts have ordered Justice and his companies to pay more than $10 million to more than a dozen suppliers, workers and government entities. Over the same time, his companies also piled up $13 million-plus in tax liens. He claims to have paid off many of these. By the numbers: Manchin, who has not decided whether he'll run for re-election, raised only $175,000 in the final three months of 2022 but still ended the year with a hefty $9.53 million in his campaign coffers.     3. Poll of the week: Santos in free fall Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios   Ethically beleaguered Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) has virtually no support in his home district, according to a new Siena poll conducted for Newsday. A whopping 78% of voters in his district want Santos to resign. That includes 71% of Republicans and 72% of independents. Nearly three-quarters of respondents said House Speaker Kevin McCarthy "was wrong" to seat him on two congressional committees — including 59% of Republicans. Santos told the GOP conference this week that he would be stepping off his assigned committees. Most voters (77%) surveyed hold a dim view about the state of our politics, believing that Santos' behavior and his refusal to resign "show that our political system is broken." Go deeper: The poll also revealed insight on voter thinking in a swing district that Biden carried by 8 points in 2020. Santos won the historically Democratic seat in November, fueled by widespread dissatisfaction over rising crime on Long Island. Biden's favorability/unfavorability rating in the district is a lackluster 45%/50%. Former President Trump's numbers have hit rock bottom in the district, with 29% viewing him favorably and 66% viewing him unfavorably. But not all Republicans have taken a political hit in Santos' district. Former GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin, who ran a close race for governor last year, has one of the highest favorability scores of all the politicians tested (42%/38%).     A message from Amazon "I was able to go to college without stressing about the cost"     Julio always planned to go to college but couldn't afford it. The Amazon Career Choice program helped him become the first college graduate in his family. Here's how: Amazon offers pre-paid tuition for nearly 1 million employees and delivery partners. Read how Amazon is helping employees grow.     4. Reads of the week: Bipartisan boomlet Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios   1. "New Pa. Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is on a GOP charm offensive" (Washington Post) Why it matters: Democrats badly need more moderates as national standard-bearers to re-create the coalition that Biden won with in 2020. Shapiro, representing one of the most pivotal battleground states, is looking to fill that role. Of note: Shapiro "appointed former GOP state representative Mike Vereb, who was the first Pennsylvania legislator to endorse Donald Trump in 2016, as his secretary of legislative affairs." 2. "Pelosi endorses Schiff in 2024 California Senate race if Feinstein retires" (CBS News) Why it matters: Pelosi has been a longtime ally of Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), so her endorsement doesn't come as a major surprise. But it's a signal that Schiff is emerging as the candidate playing to the party establishment, as his two leading Democratic rivals (Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee) focus on the party's progressive base. 3. "The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting" (Sabato's Crystal Ball) Why it matters: Only three senators (of 34) on the ballot in 2020 ran more than 10 points ahead of their party's presidential nominee. If that partisan trend holds in 2024, it would make it difficult for the three Democratic senators in red states — Manchin, Montana Sen. Jon Tester and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown — to prevail.     A message from Amazon Amazon helps veterans like Anthony grow their careers     Amazon is committed to hiring 100,000 veterans and military spouses by 2024 and providing free skills training, mentorships and growth opportunities. The impact: Anthony is a veteran who started as a temporary associate. He's now a site safety manager. Learn how Amazon is supporting veterans.   📬 Thanks for reading. This newsletter was edited by Justin Green and copy edited by Brad Bonhall. Are you a fan of this email format? Your essential communications — to staff, clients and other stakeholders — can have the same style. Axios HQ, a powerful platform, will help you do it.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. 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