🎄Recession Warnings Mount as Traders Head Off for the Holidays

Good morning. We've been noting inverted yield curves on US Treasuries in this space often...

It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. We've been noting inverted yield curves on US Treasuries in this space often. They're the most consistently reliable indicator for an imminent recession. That even includes an inversion in late 2019, months before the world heard of Covid-19. Now, there are other data points warning that 2023 may not be a strong one for the economy. US manufacturing data, specifically the purchasing manufacturer's index (PMI), have now slid to a contractionary reading. That's a sign that demand is dropping, rather than an improvement in supply. Traders should remain cautious… but also remember that markets are forward looking. As soon as signs improve, even before the economy does, stocks may take off. But that will likely still be months away, well after the holiday season. Now here's the rest of the news: Sponsored Content Is This Tool The Holy Grail of The Stock Market? Here is a way to break through the noise to get a real pulse on EOY market trends. Would you prevent that early exit if you could SEE potential gains in your future? Experience a tool to perfect your entry and exit timing to dominate 2023 and Save Your Seat for this Free A.I. Live Training. MARKETS DOW 32,920.46 -0.85% S&P 3,852.36 -1.11% NASDAQ 10,705.41 -0.97% *As of market close • Stocks closed lower on Friday, extending the week's losses. • Oil dropped 2.3 percent, closing at $74.33 per barrel. • Gold rallied 0.8 percent, hitting $1,802 per ounce. • Cryptocurrencies traded lower, with Bitcoin going for $16,885 at the market close. Today's TOP TIPS Play This Stealth Winner in the Cloud Space In any sector or trend, a few companies come to dominate. The headline names may attract considerable attention, but the real returns can often be in the companies providing the infrastructure behind it. These "pick and shovel" plays may lack for an exciting story, but when it comes to investing, a boring idea that's profitable tends to have a better valuation than going after the exciting story. In the cloud services space, server processors make the most attractive story. » FULL STORY Insider Trading Report: VAALCO Energy (EGY) George Maxwell, CEO at VAALCO Energy (EGY), recently bought 5,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 3.9 percent, and came to a total cost of $21,650. The CEO last bought shares in November, grabbing 20,000 shares for just over $111,000. The most recent buy comes about one month after the company CFO bought 4,250 shares as well. Overall, company insiders have been mixed over the past three years, with large holders making big sales while some insiders have been buyers. » FULL STORY Unusual Options Activity: The Home Depot (HD) Shares of home improvement retailer The Home Depot (HD) are down about in-line with the market over the past year. One trader sees a further drop in the weeks ahead. That's based on the February 2023 $290 put. With 60 days until expiration, 13,502 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 311 for a 41-fold jump in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $4.03 to make the bearish bet. » FULL STORY IN OTHER NEWS • Senate Passes $858 Billion Defense Bill The US Senate passed an $858 billion defense spending bill. In addition to the purchase of new weapons and increased pay for service members, it also ends the Pentagon's Covid-19 vaccine mandate. The bill passed 83-11, and increases the total defense budget by about 10 percent over last year's $778 billion bill. • Mazars Pauses Cryptocurrency Accounting Mazars, an accounting firm that works with a number of cryptocurrency customers, including major player Binance, is pausing all of its crypto work right now. The company has withdrawn its latest report on Binance, amid a potential $6 billion outflow in crypto from the platform to hardware and software wallets. • Goldman Sachs Looks to Trim 8 Percent of Staff Investment bank Goldman Sachs (GS) is planning to cut 8 percent of its staff in the next year. The bank expects to see layoffs across all its divisions, amid concerns over a continued tough economic environment in 2023. The bank notes that the layoffs could be lower depending on conditions. • Taco Bell Expanding Mexican Pizza Options Restaurant chain Taco Bell, owned by Yum Brans (YUM), is testing out two varieties of its popular Mexican Pizza. The item was reintroduced this year following a two-year absence from the menu during the pandemic. The new varieties are being tested in Oklahoma and Nebraska. • Meta to Wind Down "Super" App in February Meta Platforms (META) has announced that it's shutting down "Super," an app that provides a meet-and-greet experience to Cameo. The company started developing the app in 2020, and will shut it down starting in February. The app joins a number that have been shut down by Meta in the past year. S&P 500 MOVERS TOP ADBE  3.197% META  3.026% UHS 2.384% GNRC 2.013% KR 1.923% BOTTOM F 7.061% MRNA 6.789% KMX 6.347% ACN 5.692% LNC 5.224% Quote of the Day The equity market's reaction is now factoring in a recession, and rejecting the possibility of the 'soft/softish' landing mentioned recently by Powell…The tug-of-war between the Fed and the markets is squarely on the market's side: the slowdown is not 'transitory,' and the Fed will be forced to act before 2024. - Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, on the market predicting a recession next year, likely avoiding the "soft landing" that the Federal Reserve has been aiming for. Sponsored Content Small Tweaks To Improve Your Investing Attitude? 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