Monday, December 19, 2022

Beijing facing a 2-million-death mess

A newsletter from POLITICO that unpacks essential global news, trends, and decisions.
Dec 19, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Global Insider

By Ryan Heath

Follow Ryan on Twitter | Send tips and insights to rheath@politico.com

Happening Today

GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY DEAL SEALED: Negotiators in Montreal this morning closed a new agreement on halting biodiversity loss by 2030.

POLITICO's Louise Guillot reports on the compromise deal put on the table by China, which led the U.N. conference, including a number of EU demands in exchange for European governments committing extra money to the deal. As part of the agreement, rich countries are expected to triple their annual biodiversity conservation aid from about $10 billion today to $30 billion.

LEO VARADKAR IS BACK IN PLACE AS IRISH PRIME MINISTER: he replaces Micheál Martin in a planned role switch, as part of the government's coalition agreement. Martin, in turn, is taking over from Simon Coveney as foreign minister, a role that includes responsibility for Northern Ireland policy.

JOINT EXPEDITIONARY FORCE SUMMIT: With a mission to counter Russian aggression, jef members are meeting in Riga today, including U.K. prime minister Rishi Sunak and the leaders of every Nordic and Baltic country.

D.C.'S TRUMP FOCUS: The House of Representatives Jan. 6 select committee meets at 1 p.m. to vote on its final report and possible criminal referrals against Donald Trump.

PRESIDENTIAL TRAVEL: Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected in Belarus today, and many are wondering if a new Ukraine offensive will be announced.

Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso is visiting the White House.

 

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GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

COVID — CHINA GETTING OFF-TRACK: As with every other country forced to abandon such a zero-Covid approach, Beijing's recent shift to looser Covid policies will be brutal.

There's no national plan: Some municipal governments, including Beijing, are rushing out policies to restore pre-pandemic life, effective immediately

Overall, the shift away from zero Covid was sudden — the very opposite of how Beijing's long-term planning normally works.

Life and death: While China says it has recorded barely 5,000 Covid deaths until now, and admits to only two Covid deaths since Beijing abruptly changed course on Dec. 7, new foreign analysis suggests 2.1 million deaths could be expected in the next three months.

That means the next few months could be brutal, without many safety nets to minimize the pain: There are no mRNA vaccines in China and economic growth is now anemic.

As China opens up, Fang Fang, the author who captured the horrors of Wuhan in late 2019 and early 2020, is still paying the price.

DIPLOMACY — CHINA GETTING ON-TRACK: Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced the sixth Australia-China Foreign and Strategic Dialogue will take place on Wednesday. The last edition was held in 2018, before a bruising trade war and near freezing of diplomatic relations.

Heading the dialogue, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong will meet with China's State Councilor and Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi on the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Beijing and Canberra resuming.

RISK ALERT — PALEO VIRUSES: Russia's State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology, known as Vector, is analyzing the remains of mammoths, wooly rhinoceroses and other Ice Age animals to identify and revive prehistoric viruses, also known as paleo viruses. It's theoretically possible because the animals were almost perfectly preserved in the frozen earth (-55 Celsuis, actually) of northeast Siberia, writes Marc Bennetts in the Times of London.

CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCY TRACKER: The Atlantic Council calculates that 114 countries are now exploring establishing their own digital currencies — representing over 95 percent of global GDP — including around 60 in advanced or final stages of their research.

KLEPTOWATCH AND SCANDAL CORNER

MORE SHOCKING REVELATIONS IN BRITAIN: In the fourth installment of her jaw-dropping investigation into the British system of "All Party Parliamentary Groups," my London-based colleague Esther Webber speaks to a female British MP who alleges that she was touched inappropriately by a male MP more than 25 years her senior on an overseas visit.

"What I was struck by is how much alcohol was consumed — pretty much every night till 2 or 3 in the morning," said the MP, who was granted anonymity to speak freely. The MP reported the incident to the party whips of the alleged perpetrator, with no effect. The MP says she now tries to avoid him in parliament wherever possible — sometimes by walking out of the room or walking with others.

TELLTALE SIGN OF INFLUENCE BOUGHT ... THE POLITICIAN'S HIGH END WATCH: 

Did you know? In the case of Qatar's government gifting practices, "a foreign minister visiting the emirate usually receives a Patek Philippe watch. Visitors ranked below would receive an Audemars Piguet watch [worth about €60,000]. For parliamentarians there is an Omega or a Rolex, then a Cartier," wrote Christian Chesnot, a French journalist who has charted Qatar's diplomatic tactics.

Bruno Le Maire, French finance minister, caused a diplomatic incident by rejecting an €85,000 Patek Philippe watch offered to him by the Qatari government.

GLOBETROTTERS

IS IT THE END OF THE DAVOS MEGA PARTY? Have your Davos invitations been few so far? You're not alone, and things might not change much over the next month.

Some of the clues:

— Holes across the D.C. and Silicon Valley Christmas party scenes this year are a sign that global companies don't see this winter as an appropriate time for splashy parties.

— The general crypto collapse and the specific downfall of FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried have put the in-your-face crypto crowd of Davos 2022 on the back foot.

— Russian sanctions mean no more Oleg Deripaska parties, and no more oligarch largesse.

— There's a live war on the on the Continent.

Save us: The parties may be shrinking, but Moon Boots are back, and will be everywhere in Davos.

COOL OR CRASS? THE DEFENSE CONTRACTORS FUNDING UKRAINE PARTY: They're helping Ukraine defend itself, but is funding a holiday party for the Ukrainian embassy too much for D.C.? The logos of military contractors Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Pratt & Whitney and Lockheed Martin featured prominently on an otherwise fancy invitation to a recent party with the Ukrainian ambassador.

MOVES

Rui Costa will be chief of staff to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, he has been governor of the state of Bahia since 2015.

James Rubin is rejoining the State Department as special envoy and coordinator of the Global Engagement Center. He previously was diplomatic counselor to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development secretary-general.

Angelina Jolie is ending her U.N. refugee ambassador role.

As first reported by Global Insider a month ago, Wall Street Journal has confirmed Emma Tucker will join in February as editor-in-chief, succeeding Matt Murray. She is currently the editor of The Sunday Times in London.

 

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BRAIN FOOD

The death of Tunisia's revolution — and with it the Arab Spring, by Louise Callaghan in Tunis.

Mike Pence's identity crisis, by Adam Wren.

Anatomy of a scandal: How 'Qatargate' crisis shook EU to its core, by Suzanne Lynch.

Crypto king was a crony capitalist at heart, writes Gerard Baker.

Thanks to editor Heidi Vogt, Daniel Lippman and producer Hannah Farrow.

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