Tuesday, September 27, 2022

What Meloni means for America

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Sep 27, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels

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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Giorgia Meloni attends a center-right coalition rally in Rome.

In terms of the issues that the U.S. cares about — keeping the anti-Putin coalition intact and keeping Rome as a constructive force inside the EU — Giorgia Meloni is either already on board or unlikely to make waves. | Gregorio Borgia/AP Photo

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DRIVING THE DAY

COUNTDOWN — Six weeks until Election Day!

CR RELEASED — Full text Section-by-section summary

WHAT'S IN IT? — Nestled into the stopgap spending bill that Congress is aiming to pass to avert a government shutdown this week is over $12 billion in aid for Ukraine, AP's Kevin Freking reports . What else is in it: "The funding package, which Congress is set to consider this week, will also provide disaster assistance, including for Jackson, Mississippi. … Also in the package is money to help households afford winter heating and funding to assist Afghans in resettling in the U.S." What's not in it: Biden's request for emergency funds to fight Covid and monkeypox. What's in it for now, but might not be for long: JOE MANCHIN's permitting reform bill.

DECODING MELONI — Buongiorno from Rome, where we've been reporting on the Italian elections while on vacation. On Thursday, we checked out a campaign event in a small town in Campania for a candidate that was washed away in the right-wing wave. On Friday, we were in the capital watching a sleepy rally of Italy's impotent center-left Democratic Party in Piazza del Popolo. Lacking a clear message, the divided left resorted mostly to warning about the dangers of empowering the new right.

On Sunday, across town at the high-end Parco dei Principi Grand Hotel, which served as GIORGIA MELONI's campaign headquarters, we watched shocked young Meloni activists embrace in disbelief at what they had accomplished in electing Italy's most right-wing government since BENITO MUSSOLINI.

"It's a dream," a founder of Meloni's Brothers of Italy party told Reuters in the hotel's conference room as Meloni, 45, took the stage early Monday morning.

The Trump comparisons are there if you look for them. Her campaign slogan was "pronti a risollevare l'Italia ," which translates as "ready to revive Italy" and echoes Trump's "make America great again." Just like at Trump events, reporters were forced to wear press credentials with the candidate's slogan prominently displayed and type in a Wi-Fi password that was a shout-out to the candidate. And, like Trump, Meloni has crafted a boisterous social media persona: On election day, as she was poised to become Italy's first female prime minister, she posted a suggestive video in which she held two melons in front of her chest and declared, "I've said it all." It received millions of views.

The Trump-adjacent international conservative movement celebrated her win. Hungarian strongman VIKTOR ORBAN posted a picture of the two together. STEVE BANNON, who has been hyping her for years, rejoiced on his show with MATT SCHLAPP, who hosted Meloni at CPAC earlier this year.

But the Trump comparisons only go so far. Meloni, unlike her right-wing partners, MATTEO SALVINI, a Putin sycophant, and SILVIO BERLUSCONI, who recently said Putin "only wanted to replace Zelensky with a government made up of decent people," Meloni has been a staunch defender of Ukraine and opponent of Russian aggression. She's pro-NATO and ditched much of her Euroskepticism as she attempted to calm the fears of the European establishment.

For all the shock about Meloni having a seat at the table in the G-7, NATO and the EU, you would be hard-pressed to find anything she has said about globalism, immigration, or nearly any other issue animating the global populist right that is more controversial than what's been uttered by the last American president. That doesn't mean it shouldn't be deeply concerning that her party has neo-facist roots and embraces the tri-color flame symbol associated with Mussolini.

But in terms of the issues that the U.S. cares about — keeping the anti-Putin coalition intact and keeping Rome as a constructive force inside the EU — Meloni is either already on board or unlikely to make waves. Italy is reliant on billions of dollars in aid from the EU, and most analysts here believe that alone will curtail any anti-Europe backsliding.

Others argue that if rising energy prices this winter produce a backlash against Russian sanctions, the politically dexterous Meloni will quickly readjust her views. But observers here say that means she may be more likely to focus on domestic issues: She is anti-abortion rights and hostile to the LGBT and immigrant communities.

This being Italy, one likely outcome is a short-lived government where the already obvious fissures between Meloni, Salvini, and Berlusconi deepen, the government accomplishes little, and voters become disillusioned and go hunting for the next savior.

How's all of this playing in the White House? Jonathan Lemire has an excellent report this morning on how Meloni's win "was met with deep, if private, worry within President JOE BIDEN's administration."

"Biden aides worried that Meloni may begin to question Italy's commitment [to Ukraine], arguing that the nation's resources should be used at home, particularly if Europe plunges into a recession this winter," Jon writes. "If a major G-7 player begins leaning on Kyiv to find a negotiated settlement to the war — as opposed to funding its resistance — there is a possibility that other nations could follow suit and the continent's resolve could weaken."

 

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IAN LATEST — The National Hurricane Center reports that Ian is currently moving over western Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane with winds at 125 mph. The current track has it hitting western Florida at 2 a.m. Thursday, raising alarms over a long-feared scenario — a direct hit to Tampa Bay that could push a 10-foot-plus storm surge into one of the state's most populated and vulnerable epicenters.

The Tampa Bay Times has dropped its paywall for coverage: "Hurricane Ian headed toward Tampa Bay, evacuations ordered"

"Low-lying and flood-prone, Tampa Bay area braces for first major storm in a century," by WaPo's Brady Dennis

"Florida fortifies Tampa amid threats of flooding from hurricane," by Arek Sarkissian in Tallahassee

IN THE EYE OF THE STORM — Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS spent his first term becoming one of the most influential Republicans in the country — a likely 2024 contender who's already shaping his party's national agenda. But DeSantis still hasn't faced one of the toughest challenges a Florida leader can encounter: A hurricane. That's all changing this week as Hurricane Ian barrels toward the state, and, Matt Dixon writes from Tallahassee, "depending on how well the governor responds to the potentially catastrophic storm, DeSantis may emerge more popular or open himself up to criticism."

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your favorite restaurants in Rome: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

a logo that reads 2022 ELECTIONS

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — A new internal poll from Democratic Senate candidate CHERI BEASLEY finds a tied race in North Carolina. The 46% to 46% deadlock with GOP nominee Rep. TED BUDD is not far out of line with other recent independent polls, which have tended to show Budd with a small lead within the margin of error.

What's important here is the context , which is the emerging game of nationwide triage that both parties are starting to engage in as Election Day draws closer. Beasley is battling the perception that North Carolina is not quite in the top tier of Senate races nationally — a perception underscored by the fact that no Democrat has won a statewide federal election in the Tar Heel State since 2008.

So this poll — conducted by Global Strategy Group among a sample of 800 likely general election voters between Sept. 12-20 — is more than anything else a signal to Democratic donors, large and small, that North Carolina is very much in play.

Beasley has enjoyed a significant hard-money advantage over Budd, but GOP outside groups are already starting to help close that gap. The poll is being released on the heels of this past weekend's CORY BOOKER-led small-donor blitz, and it includes some news that Beasley's allies can use — including new data showing Budd's vulnerability due to his hardline anti-abortion stance.

Budd's views, which include support for Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM's (R-S.C.) 15-week national abortion ban, are "causing him to lose support among voters," GSG's memo reads, "and further investment is needed to ensure voters know Budd for who he is." Full polling memo

 

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BIG PICTURE

THE PARTY PIVOT — Republicans across the country are turning their attention to crime and public safety — an issue that they believe will give them a marked advantage over Dems. "The strategy seeks to capitalize on some voters' fears about safety — after a pandemic-fueled crime surge that in some cities has yet to fully recede. But it has swiftly drawn criticism as a return to sometimes deceptive or racially divisive messaging," NYT's Lisa Lerer and Jonathan Weisman report.

THE WATCHMEN — Despite no evidence of widespread voter fraud or shady election workers, "the false claims about the the 2020 presidential contest by the former president and his supporters are spurring new interest in working the polls in Georgia and elsewhere for the upcoming midterm elections, according to interviews with election officials, experts and prospective poll workers," AP's Sudhin Thanawala writes from Atlanta.

BATTLE FOR THE STATES

BRING IT ON — Supporters of DOUG MASTRIANO actually want to see Rep. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.) join the fray in the contentious Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, arguing that the Wyoming Republican is "not in touch with the GOP's base" and that her anti-Mastriano crusade would be a boost to the Republican's campaign, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Julian Routh reports. "Ms. Cheney's comments this past weekend — that 'we have to make sure Mastriano doesn't win' the Pennsylvania governor's race — were quickly dismissed by the state senator's loyal backers on Monday."

HOT POLLS

Washington: Democratic Sen. PATTY MURRAY leads Republican TIFFANY SMILEY 48.7% to 46.5%, according to a Trafalgar Group poll.

Texas: Republican Gov. GREG ABBOTT leads Democrat BETO O'ROURKE 51% to 44%, per a Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation poll.

Pennsylvania: Democrat JOHN FETTERMAN leads Republican MEHMET OZ in the Senate race 45% to 42%, per an Insider Advantage/FOX 29 Philadelphia poll. In the gubernatorial race, Democrat JOSH SHAPIRO leads Mastriano 52% to 37%.

BIDEN'S TUESDAY:

10:30 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief.

1:15 p.m.: Biden will deliver remarks focused on health care costs, Medicare and Social Security in the Rose Garden.

Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE and FEMA Administrator DEANNE CRISWELL will brief at noon.

VP KAMALA HARRIS' TUESDAY: The VP is in Japan, where last night and this morning she held bilateral meetings with South Korean PM HAN DUCK-SOO and Australian PM ANTHONY ALBANESE, attended the state funeral for former Japanese PM SHINZO ABE, toured the Zojoji Temple, visited the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo and led the U.S. delegation in participating in a receiving line following Abe's state funeral.

The White House also confirmed on Monday night that Harris would visit Korea's demilitarized zone on Thursday to "tour sites at the DMZ, meet with service members and receive an operational briefing from U.S. commanders." More from Olivia Olander

THE SENATE will meet at 3 p.m. to take up the vehicle for the continuing resolution to fund the government. There will be a cloture vote on the motion to proceed at 5:30 p.m. The Rules Committee will mark up the Electoral Count Act reform bill at 4 p.m.

 

THIS WEEK - MILKEN INSTITUTE ASIA SUMMIT : Go inside the 9th annual Milken Institute Asia Summit, taking place from September 28-30, with a special edition of POLITICO's Global Insider newsletter, featuring exclusive coverage and insights from this important gathering. Stay up to speed with daily updates from the summit, which brings together more than 1,200 of the world's most influential leaders from business, government, finance, technology, and academia. Don't miss out, subscribe today.

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, center, arrives for the state funeral for former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Tokyo.

VP Kamala Harris attends the state funeral for former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe in Tokyo, Japan, on Tuesday, Sept. 27. | Franck Robichon/Pool Photo via AP

PLAYBOOK READS

MAR-A-LAGO FALLOUT

UPDATED INVENTORY — The Justice Department on Monday submitted a "slightly revised inventory of the materials seized in the search, along with an FBI affidavit indicating that the new inventory fully reflects what was taken" from Trump's Mar-a-Lago compound, CNN's Tierney Sneed and Holmes Lybrand report.

"According to CNN's comparison of the two versions , the new version showed the same total number of documents marked classified as compiled in the previously filed inventory. The new version shows two fewer press clippings and two fewer empty envelopes with classified banners than the previous count. The revised inventory also shows a few dozen more government records without classified markings, out of the thousands that the FBI says it obtained in the search."

THE WHITE HOUSE

MORE THAN HE CAN CHEW? — The White House on Wednesday is hosting its hunger and nutrition conference. But amid historically high inflation, a protracted food safety crisis around baby formula and just weeks before a midterm that could flip Congress, the administration is facing an immense challenge to deliver a long-term policy outcome, Meredith Lee Hill reports this morning . "The bulk of the president's plan rests on calling for Congress to pass legislation, including efforts to increase access to key nutrition programs and expand the number of children who can receive free school meals — the subject of an extended political fight in Congress."

EYES ON THE SKIES — The White House rolled out a new initiative on Monday with the goal to "allow consumers to see a more complete price on airline tickets — including baggage and change fees — before they buy, as the White House continues to search for ways to lower costs for Americans amid persistently high inflation," AP's Seung Min Kim and David Koenig write.

CONGRESS

LATER TODAY — The Senate Rules Committee will meet Tuesday afternoon to mark up bipartisan legislation to rewrite the 135-year-old Electoral Count Act. The markup comes after the House passed its own version last week. Our Marianne LeVine writes in to report that negotiators, led by panel leaders AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-Minn.) and ROY BLUNT (R-Mo.), have agreed on a package of changes intended to address concerns raised by election law experts about the original bill.

— What's in the managers' amendment: It clarifies that an expedited judicial review process for an election certification challenge wouldn't interfere with other election-related court proceedings. In addition, the bill states that elections may only be extended due to "force majeure" catastrophic events, after some legal experts suggested that the term "catastrophic event" was too broad. That language brings the bill closer in line to the House's updates to the Electoral Count Act, which defined what would qualify as a catastrophic event.

READY TO MAKE NICE — As the pro-Trump House Freedom Caucus plots how to exert its influence on next year's potential GOP majority, its members are poised to holster a potent political weapon: Challenging KEVIN McCARTHY. "Interviews with more than a dozen members of the conservative group indicate they're not moving to coalesce against the GOP leader as they have in the past," Olivia Beavers reports . "In short, the Freedom Caucus that blocked McCarthy's path to the gavel seven years ago has evolved into a bloc that's willing to use its leverage to secure procedural demands, but not to blow up the race for speaker."

STATE OF THE UNION — "Levin employees vote to form first congressional staffer union," by The Detroit News' Melissa Nann Burke

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

TEXTS AND CONTEXT — KELLYE SoRELLE, a "high-ranking member of the far-right Oath Keepers organization who has been charged in connection with the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol exchanged messages in November 2020 with former Trump White House aide ANDREW GIULIANI about election issues," NBC's Ryan Reilly and Ben Collins report. SoRelle "also tried to text a White House number on Dec. 20, according to a new book from DENVER RIGGLEMAN, a former Republican congressman from Virginia, and journalist HUNTER WALKER. That text message went to a White House switchboard line, so it could not be delivered."

WHAT TO EXPECT — The Jan. 6 committee on Wednesday is planning to show "video footage of ROGER STONE recorded by Danish filmmakers during the weeks before the violence," WaPo's Dalton Bennett, Jon Swaine and Jacqueline Alemany report . "The committee is considering including video clips in which Stone, a longtime friend and onetime adviser of President Donald Trump, predicted violent clashes with left-wing activists and forecast months before the 2020 vote that the president would use armed guards and loyal judges to stay in power."

 

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ABORTION FALLOUT

WOWZA — Texas AG KEN PAXTON "fled his home in a truck driven by his wife, state Sen. ANGELA PAXTON, to avoid being served a subpoena Monday," the Texas Tribune's Eleanor Klibanoff reports. "ERNESTO MARTIN HERRERA, a process server, was attempting to serve the state's top attorney with a subpoena for a federal court hearing Tuesday in a lawsuit from nonprofits that want to help Texans pay for abortions out of state."

POLICY CORNER

AT WHAT COST — What's the cost of Biden's proposed student loan relief plan? About $400 million, according to the Congressional Budget Office. "The report by the nonpartisan congressional budget scorekeeper is the first full, official cost estimate of Biden's student debt plan issued by a government agency," Michael Stratford writes. "And it adds new fuel to the contentious debate over whether the loan relief to tens of millions of borrowers is justified or an irresponsible use of taxpayer dollars."

How it's playing: "GOP lawmakers on Monday pounced on the CBO score, saying it bolstered their arguments that the program is too costly for taxpayers. … White House officials have sought to focus attention on how debt relief would affect annual cash flows to the federal government, rather than the entire cost of the program." Read the CBO report

AD ASTRA — "NASA's DART spacecraft successfully collides with asteroid," CNN

MEDIAWATCH

HMM — "Fox News's Tucker Carlson speaks at Hells Angels president's funeral," by The Guardian's Martin Pengelly

HMM, PART II — "Donald Trump's Spac changes address to mailbox at UPS store," by FT's Ortenca Aliaj

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Edward Snowden responded to news that Vladimir Putin had granted him Russian citizenship: "After two years of waiting and nearly ten years of exile, a little stability will make a difference for my family. I pray for privacy for them—and for us all."

Tucker Carlson isn't a fan of Kevin McCarthy's "Commitment to America."

Kara Swisher's new podcast, "On with Kara Swisher," debuted with a Chris Cuomo interview.

Matt Gaetz's first Twitch stream wasn't very popular.

Paul LePage and Janet Mills are getting heated over lobsters.

JUST ANNOUNCED — Heidi Przybyla will join the POLITICO staff as national investigative correspondent next month. The NBC, USA Today and Bloomberg alum comes aboard permanently Oct. 11 after delivering a series of high-impact scoops on Republican efforts to influence the election system as a POLITICO contributor this summer — stories that were recently cited in a New York Times editorial on threats to America's voting infrastructure.

Our executive editor Dafna Linzer and managing editor for enterprise Peter Canellos write: "She is equally comfortable in front of a keyboard or camera, covering a presidential debate or digging into a policy investigation. As a POLITICO contributor, she broke important new ground with a series of investigative scoops on GOP efforts in advance of the midterms to recruit and train supposedly non-partisan poll workers. Now, she will report to Peter Canellos doing investigative and A1 stories, working with colleagues across the newsroom, and utilizing her wide array of sources to help us compete on stories central to the intersection of policy, power and politics." The full memo

IN MEMORIAM — "Long-time columnist Mike Causey dead at 82," by Federal News Network's Tom Temin: "Norman Causey, long time Federal News Network host and columnist who went by Mike, and a fixture in the Washington, D.C. news scene for more than half a century, died Monday. He was 82 years old. Causey had finished a recording that morning and was shortly thereafter found unresponsive at the desk in his office by a coworker. … Since joining the station in the early 2000s, Causey wrote and broadcast about matters crucial to the federal workforce."

THIS OLD HOUSE — The French Embassy is working to renovate the facade and roof of the French ambassador's residence, one of Washington's storied entertaining venues. An embassy spokesperson told Daniel Lippman the work, which started this summer, is to "preserve the beauty" of the 1910 Tudor Revival house and is expected to conclude in May. The spokesperson declined to comment on the cost of the project. France bought the 27,000-square-foot, 19-room property in 1936.

A photo of the French Embassy.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The George Mason Schar School of Policy and Government is announcing two new professors in practice: Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe and former Virginia Del. David Ramadan.

Lisa Einstein is now executive director of the CISA Cybersecurity Advisory Committee. She graduated from Stanford in 2022 as its first ever dual master's degree recipient in computer science and international cyber policy.

STAFFING UP — Jessica Stallone is joining the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security as deputy director of public affairs. She previously was deputy chief of staff at the Anti-Defamation League.

TRANSITIONS — Algene Sajery is relaunching her strategic advisory firm Catalyst Global Strategies. She most recently has been VP of external affairs and head of global gender equity initiatives at the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, and is a Ben Cardin and Senate Foreign Relations alum. … Sara Johnson is now COO and VP for strategy and operations at the Data Foundation. She previously was acting deputy administrator for the Office of Policy Development and Research at the Labor Department's Employment and Training Administration. … Jessica Schneider is now global head of client services at Morning Consult. She previously was president at Ipsos. …

Rex Booth is now senior director of cybersecurity operations at identity security company SailPoint. He most recently was director of stakeholder engagement at the Office of the National Cyber Director and is a CISA alum. … Jon Anzur is now VP of public affairs at the Pennsylvania Chamber of Business and Industry. He previously was chief of staff to Rep. Fred Keller (R-Pa.) and is a Lou Barletta alum.

ENGAGED — Tamara Cesaretti, counsel for the House Financial Services Committee Democrats, and Jeremy Schimmel, a contractor for the Maryland Transit Administration, got engaged on Sept. 17 at Gravelly Point in Virginia, where the couple had their second date.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Alex Kahan, chief of staff to the State Department's Coordinator for Global Covid-19 Response and Health Security, and Ryan Lynch, comms and public affairs director with Global Strategy Group, got married Saturday at the National Arboretum. The couple met at a wedding where one was invited and the other crashed. Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.), Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.) and Ed Case (D-Hawaii) … Juleanna GloverAllie Owen … WaPo's Tony RommAnne-Marie Slaughter of New America … BGR Public Relations' Jeff Birnbaum … … POLITICO's Meridith McGraw, Steven Overly, Anne Mulkern, Nick Tedesco and Molly FruitsGeoff Burgan … League of Conservation Voters' Sara ChieffoMarty FranksPeebles Squire … Madison Group's Marcus Sebastian MasonDan RavivBrendan Dunn of Akin Gump … American Cleaning Institute's Kristin DiNicolantonioRené Carbone Bardorf … ABC's Matthew Vann … former Rep. Peter Kostmayer (D-Pa.) … Caitlyn Schneeweiss … Axios' Cuneyt DilZach Barnett of Rep. Garret Graves' (R-La.) office … Sam RaskinTim Traylor Abby Curran Horrell Alexa (Wertman) Brown Laura Whitefield … CBS' Ellee WatsonCurtis LeGeyt of the National Association of Broadcasters … Josh MandelSeema Verma

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Correction: Monday's Playbook misreported the planned launch of the Artemis I moon mission. NASA said Saturday it would delay the launch due to the approach of Hurricane Ian.

 

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