| | | | |  | | By Gary Fineout | Hello and welcome to Tuesday. This is not a drill — This is the one that Florida has been dreading. Taking aim — Hurricane Ian — now a monster 500-mile Category 3 "historic" hurricane — is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico later today and remain on a path toward the western coast of Florida. Go now — Hundreds of thousands of people — especially those in huge chunks of Hillsborough and Pinellas counties — have been told to evacuate as Ian is expected to bring significant storm surge, including at least 10 feet in the Tampa Bay region. Schools have been closed, and hospitals and health care facilities have begun evacuations. A worst-case scenario — This area has managed to sidestep serious storms for the past century, but for years now experts have warned of the potential catastrophic effect of a major hurricane forcing a wave of water into a region that has seen tremendous growth in low-lying areas. It creates a potential for widespread damage and destruction. Fallout — The next few days could be very rough for many, many Floridians — and there are questions about the cascading effects triggered by the hurricane, including the potential for the complete collapse of an already teetering insurance market being propped up with the help of billions of dollars in taxpayer money. What happens if there is a widespread loss of homes in an area already bursting at the seams with an affordable housing crisis? A test — This is also likely be the biggest challenge Gov. Ron DeSantis has dealt with during his four years in office and one that will require him to take on a different posture and demeanor from the partisan warrior who is batting with federal officials and Democrats over immigration, education and Covid-19. Craig Fugate, the former Federal Emergency Management Agency administrator who served as then-Gov. Jeb Bush's emergency management director, told POLITICO's Matt Dixon: "Fail a response: hard to get reelected, and your agenda stalls." Do well, though, and it "adds capital to your agenda, and sets you up for higher office." Florida has money — One bright spot: Florida's hefty budget surplus means that the state should have the cash it will need in the immediate aftermath to help pay for the emergency response and the recovery effort. But that may not be of much comfort to the thousands of Floridians whose lives could be altered forever. — WHERE'S RON? — Gov. DeSantis is scheduled to hold a press conference at the state emergency operations center in Tallahassee. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch: gfineout@politico.com
| | | | HAPPENING 9/29 - POLITICO'S AI & TECH SUMMIT : Technology is constantly evolving and so are the politics and policies shaping and regulating it. Join POLITICO for the 2022 AI & Tech summit to get an insider look at the pressing policy and political issues shaping tech, and how Washington interacts with the tech sector. The summit will bring together lawmakers, federal regulators, tech executives, tech policy experts and consumer advocates to dig into the intersection of tech, politics, regulation and innovation, and identify opportunities, risks and challenges ahead. REGISTER FOR THE SUMMIT HERE. | | | | | |  | ...HURRICANE HOLE... | | AT THE TOP — DeSantis faces the true test of any Florida governor, by POLITICO's Matt Dixon: Gov. Ron DeSantis spent his first term becoming one of the most influential Republicans in the country — a likely 2024 frontrunner who's already shaping his party's national agenda. But DeSantis still hasn't faced one of the toughest challenges a Florida leader can encounter: a hurricane. Will everyone get along? — DeSantis has developed a reputation as a deeply partisan fighter. … For his critics, casting that aside will be a key measure for his storm response. "I hope the divisiveness that has defined Florida and national politics doesn't impact the ability of people to follow the directions of their leaders," said Democratic Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber. "Florida politicized vaccines and masks, and the results were tragic. We can't afford to make the same mistake again." AN UNWELCOME VISITOR — Is Ian Florida's 'big, sloppy' nightmare? by POLITICO's E&E News' Adam Aton: Ian — projected to peak as a Category 4 hurricane in the southeastern Gulf by early Wednesday, though possibly weakening before reaching Florida — could be the most challenging test yet. Tampa Bay counts among the most vulnerable areas in Florida. Though it hasn't taken a direct hurricane hit since the 1940s, the region's geography and densely populated coast expose it to storm surges and flooding. Modeling commissioned by the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council suggests a major storm could paralyze the region for months or longer. Even a smaller storm could wreak havoc. WAITING FOR IMPACT — "Vulnerable Tampa Bay braces for a storm not seen in a century," by The Associated Press' Curt Anderson: "It's been more than a century since a major storm like Hurricane Ian has struck the Tampa Bay area, which blossomed from a few hundred thousand people in 1921 to more than 3 million today. Many of these people live in low-lying neighborhoods that are highly susceptible to storm surge and flooding they have rarely before experienced, which some experts say could be worsened by the effects of climate change. The problem confronting the region is that storms approaching from the south, as Hurricane Ian is on track to do, bulldoze huge volumes of water up into shallow Tampa Bay and are likely to inundate homes and businesses." THE BIG ONE — "Hurricane Ian, a 'potential historic catastrophe,' takes aim at Tampa Bay," by Tampa Bay Times' Jay Cridlin and Zachary T. Sampson: "While the storm's current track would put the eye's landfall farther north, near the Nature Coast area, the National Weather Service on Monday put Tampa Bay under a hurricane warning for the first time since Hurricane Irma in 2017. Experts said Ian could bring up to a foot of rain and as much as 5 to 10 feet of storm surge as it lingers off the coast, which could make it one of Tampa Bay's most dangerous hurricane threats ever. 'When I look at this storm, I feel like I felt when Andrew was approaching Miami and when Katrina was approaching New Orleans,' said Jeff Masters, a meteorologist for Yale Climate Connections and a former hurricane hunter." | 
Grocery store shelves empty out in St. Petersburg, Florida, in prepartation for the possible arrival of Hurricane Ian. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images |
— Florida fortifies Tampa amid threats of flooding from hurricane, by POLITICO's Arek Sarkissian
— Bracing for impact: Florida schools closing ahead of Ian, by POLITICO's Andrew Atterbury — " How is Skanska preparing for Hurricane Ian after Hurricane Sally debacle?" by Pensacola News Journal's Benjamin Johnson — "FPL says Hurricane Ian may cause 'widespread outages' even outside of cone ," by Palm Beach Post's Hannah Morse — "Hurricane Ian's uncertain path keeps much of Florida on alert," by The New York Times' Elisabeth Parker, Alexandra Glorioso and Frances Robles MAGIC 8-BALL SAYS — "As Ian heads toward Florida, are gas prices poised to spike?" by South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Ron Hurtibise: "Stable prices don't mean that some gas stations won't run out of fuel, however, due to people escaping the storm's path or filling up gas cans to power generators, said Mark Jenkins, AAA's Florida spokesman. Jenkins said it's important for drivers to understand that the outages will be temporary. 'Gas stations are not connected to an underground pipeline,' Jenkins wrote in AAA's weekly Gas Price Update on Monday. 'Just like your vehicle, each gas station can only hold so much fuel at a given time.'" DELAYED AGAIN — " Hurricane forces NASA moon rocket to shelter; launch on hold," by The Associated Press' Marcia Dunn: "Hurricane Ian is prompting NASA to move its moon rocket off the launch pad and into shelter, adding weeks of delay to the lunar-orbiting test flight. Mission managers decided Monday to return the rocket to its Kennedy Space Center hangar. The four-mile trip will begin late Monday night and could take as long as 12 hours. The space center remained on the fringes of the hurricane's cone of uncertainty. With the latest forecast showing no improvement, managers decided to play it safe." — " AARP survey: Fewer residents aged 45+ have emergency plans, more want to shelter in place," by Florida Politics' Christine Jordan Sexton — " Hurricane Ian: Dyer warns Orlando to brace for Category 1 storm," by Orlando Sentinel's Ryan Gillespie and Stephen Hudak — "Charlie Crist rips Ron DeSantis insurance failures as Ian surges toward Florida ," by Florida Politics' A.G. Gancarski
| | Bidenology | | SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO? — "For Biden, Florida becomes the elephant in the room," by NBC News' Mike Memoli: "For weeks, there has been a debate among [President Joe] Biden advisers about whether to elevate [Gov. Ron] DeSantis at a time he clearly welcomes engaging in the national conversation. And of late, one of Biden's top advisers has argued that the governor's decision to fly migrants — particularly those fleeing Venezuela — to places like Martha's Vineyard has created an opportunity for the president to address a major political liability in south Florida with Latino voters. Another said this weekend that they think DeSantis recognized his own error, scrapping a plan to send another flight of migrants to Biden's home state of Delaware." | 
President Joe Biden speaks during a meeting of the White House Competition Council in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, Monday, Sept. 26, 2022. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo | | | | | DON'T MISS - MILKEN INSTITUTE ASIA SUMMIT : Go inside the 9th annual Milken Institute Asia Summit, taking place from September 28-30, with a special edition of POLITICO's Global Insider newsletter, featuring exclusive coverage and insights from this important gathering. Stay up to speed with daily updates from the summit, which brings together more than 1,200 of the world's most influential leaders from business, government, finance, technology, and academia. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | | | CAMPAIGN MODE | | HALTED — "Charlie Crist suspends some Florida political ads as Hurricane Ian nears," by Tampa Bay Times' Emily L. Mahoney: "With Hurricane Ian threatening major damage to Florida's Gulf Coast, Democratic nominee for governor Charlie Crist is suspending his political ads in the Tampa, Fort Myers, Orlando and Jacksonville media markets, his campaign announced Monday afternoon. Still, Crist campaign spokeswoman Samantha Ramirez said Crist's ads will continue running in the Miami and West Palm Beach areas. It's an example of how Florida politics are expected to temporarily freeze during the potential natural disaster, as the state turns all its attention to weathering what is forecast to be a major storm." TIGHTROPE — "DeSantis privately elevates election deniers while publicly staying mum on 2020," by CNN's Steve Contorno: "Publicly, [Gov. Ron] DeSantis has straddled the GOP's divide over the last election as he considers whether to run for president in the next one. He is careful not to alienate voters animated by [President Donald] Trump's relitigating of 2020, while maintaining credibility with Republicans desperate to talk about something else. He rejected calls for an intrusive Arizona-style review of Florida's election, but nevertheless championed changes to voting procedures that conspiracists have celebrated as evidence of their growing clout in Tallahassee." — " Al Lawson campaign makes 'code red' fundraising pitch to ditch Neal Dunn," by Florida Politics' Renzo Downey
| | TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP | | LEGAL STRATEGY — "Trump's best defense in New York lawsuit? 'Delay, delay, delay,' ex-prosecutors say," by NBC News Dareh Gregorian: "New York Attorney General Letitia James laid out a strong legal case against Donald Trump, his three eldest children and the Trump Organization in her $250 million civil lawsuit — but the former president may be able to drag the legal action out for several years, former prosecutors said. 'This is going to be a very difficult case for the defendants to win,' said Duncan Levin, a former assistant district attorney and asset forfeiture chief in the Manhattan district attorney's office. 'One of the best defenses to this matter is to delay, delay, delay.'"
| | ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... | | BRING IN THE LAWYERS — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is hiring outside attorneys to help him in a lawsuit filed against the governor by suspended Hillsborough County State Attorney Andrew Warren. Court filings from last week show that two lawyers from the well-connected GrayRobinson firm — which already has multiple contracts representing other state agencies — were brought on to the case after a hearing was held before U.S. District Judge Robert Hinkle. Hinkle during that hearing declined to reinstate Warren, but said he wanted a trial as soon as possible. Interesting timing — DeSantis had been represented by Attorney General Ashley Moody's office in the first round of litigation. The governor's office did not respond to questions to why it had decided to now hire the GrayRobinson attorneys. One of the lawyers now on the case — George Levesque — is a former general counsel for the Florida Senate who represented former Okaloosa County School Superintendent Mary Beth Jackson after she was suspended from office by DeSantis. — "Wengay Newton appointed to Florida Ethics Commission. Will it impact Jack Latvala's case?" by Florida Politics' Jacob Ogles
| | PENINSULA AND BEYOND | | 'DRIVERS OF THAT ROBUST GROWTH' — "U.S. Latinos economic power grows in Florida, nationally: report," by USA Today Network-Florida's Sergio Bustos: "The economic power of U.S. Latinos nationwide, including Florida, continues to grow so quickly that, if it were an independent country, its gross domestic product, or GDP, would rank as the world's fifth-largest, according to a new report. The California-based Latino Donor Collaborative, a non-profit organization that compiles data and research about Latinos nationwide to highlight their contribution to American society, found the economic output of Latinos in 2020 was $2.8 trillion, up from $1.7 trillion a decade earlier. LDC partnered with Wells Fargo to produce the report, which was released at a conference last week." 'THE COUNTRY IS BROKEN' — "Cubans said yes to same-sex marriage, but referendum results sent a message to the government," by El Nuevo Herald's Nora Gámez Torres: "Six decades after Fidel Castro imprisoned gay men in forced labor camps and later sent them to Florida during the Mariel boatlift, Cuban same-sex couples will be able to marry and adopt children, after voters on the island ratified a new family code with 67 percent of the vote in a controversial referendum Sunday. The new code was ratified with only 47 percent of eligible voters casting a Yes vote, or 3,936,790 ballots out of the 8,447,467 eligible voters. Total participation, the government said, was 74 percent, an unusually high abstention rate for Cuba, where the government traditionally pressures citizens to vote." ADD IT UP — "'Incalculable cost': Plaintiffs in ex-Florida deputy's drug planting case to begin settlement talks," by Tallahassee Democrat's Jeff Burlew: "Nearly 40 people who allege in federal lawsuits that they were framed by convicted former Jackson County deputy Zach Wester on meth and other drug charges are set to begin settlement talks next month. U.S. District Judge M. Casey Rodgers recently ordered a settlement conference between the plaintiffs and defendants, including Wester, who's serving 12 1/2 years in prison, and Jackson County Sheriff Donald Edenfield. The conference, which is closed to the public, will be held Oct. 11 at the U.S. District Courthouse in Pensacola." — " Lawsuit alleges Baker County detention center denied lawyers access to immigration detainees," by Florida Phoenix's Michael Moline
| | ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN | | — "Nine months after Miami's police union prez was suspended, city still won't say why," by Miami Herald's Charles Rabin: "More than nine months after the president of Miami's powerful police union was suspended — the city still hasn't explained why he was sent home. In the past few weeks the city technically lifted the suspension of Fraternal Order of Police President Tommy Reyes by placing the sergeant on administrative leave with pay. The only difference is, he no longer needs to check in if he leaves home during work hours. He still can't wear the uniform, work a beat, or do off-duty work. The leave hasn't affected Reyes all that much. The city's first openly gay union leader can continue with his union duties." BIRTHDAYS: Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz … Terry Spencer of The Associated Press | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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