Thursday, August 4, 2022

Why the left is quiet about Manchin’s reconciliation deal

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POLITICO Playbook

By Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels

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Blackstone

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Sen. Joe Manchin speaks to reporters.

Normally, just as Senate Dems begin to untie the final knots presented by the parliamentarian and any caucus holdouts, House progressives would start making noises about why they can't support the reconciliation bill. But so far, those voices have been muted. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo

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DRIVING THE DAY

SUMMER BOOM FOR SENATE BIPARTISANSHIP — With last night's vote to bring two new countries into NATO, the Senate completed quite a run:

  • BSCA (gun safety bill), June 23: passed 65-33
  • CHIPS (semiconductors bill), July 27: passed 64-33
  • PACT (burn pits bill), Aug. 2: passed 86-11
  • NATO (accession treaty for Sweden and Finland), Aug. 3: passed 95-1

NEXT UP: IRA — As the Senate moves onto the Inflation Reduction Act, bipartisanship is not in the cards. The two biggest obstacles remaining before Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER can celebrate the best end of summer Labor Day party of his life are Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.) and Senate Parliamentarian ELIZABETH MACDONOUGH. The latest reporting suggests that Sinema is eyeing three changes:

Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine scooped yesterday that Sinema wanted to (1) nix the carried interest loophole pay-for, which represents less than 2% of the financing for the bill, and (2) add some $5 billion in drought resiliency funding.

WaPo's Tony Romm and Jeff Stein add that Sinema also seems to be (3) questioning the bill's corporate minimum tax, an idea she seemed to endorse last year , though "discussions are fluid" and her "exact requests are unclear." Bloomberg and Axios also have similar stories with an equally cloudy picture of what exactly she wants to do on the corporate minimum tax. But everyone seems to agree she's talking to a lot of Arizona business interests about the bill's tax provisions.

Meanwhile, Caitlin Emma and Marianne Levine report that there are at least four policies in the reconciliation bill that their sources believe could be vulnerable to a Byrd Rule challenge before MacDonough, who, as Senate Parliamentarian, is the second most powerful person in Washington (after Sinema) for the next week or so:

  • Capping out-of-pocket costs for insulin.
  • A plan "to penalize drug companies when they raise prices on those with private health insurance.
  • Restrictions on electric car tax credits that require eligible vehicles to have batteries "made with materials from the U.S. or countries that have trade agreements with the U.S." (Sen. DEBBIE STABENOW (D-Mich.) wants to make the EV tax credit limits less stringent for non-Byrd Rule reasons, report Bloomberg's Ari Natter and Erik Wasson .)
  • "A requirement that the Interior Department must auction at least 2 million acres of land within a year for onshore oil and gas leases before allowing for solar and wind projects on public lands."

WHY THE LEFT IS QUIET — Normally, just as Senate Dems begin to untie the final knots presented by the parliamentarian and any caucus holdouts, progressives in the House would start making noises about why they can't support the bill. But so far, those voices have been muted. On Wednesday, we talked to Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) about why Democrats in the House, and especially progressives, this time seem ready to swallow whatever is sent over.

A few highlights from our chat, which took place while Khanna, who is from Silicon Valley, was touring Midwest industrial towns:

— The left catches bipartisan fever: "The CHIPS bill and the reconciliation deal are about showing that the progressives can build a governing coalition and that it's not just aspiration — that it's actually possible to compromise to get things done."

He added, "The knock on progressives is we put out these ideas, but what are we doing to govern? What are we getting done? Here [on CHIPS], we compromised. … We didn't lose a single progressive vote in the House."

(This is more notable when you consider that Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) vehemently opposed the CHIPS bill in the Senate.)

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— The progressive Manchin whisperer? Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) called Khanna on New Year's Day, not long after Manchin killed Build Back Better. Khanna made him a promise: "I will assure you that if you come up with something reasonable, that we can get the environmental groups behind it and we can get the progressives behind it."

He told Manchin that as long as there was "massive climate spending" in the bill, there was lots of room for other things progressives detested. Manchin outlined much of what ended up in the recent deal with Schumer. "He said," Khanna recalled, "I want deficit reduction, I want to make sure that we have some permitting reform, I want to make sure that there's gonna be some things for fossil."

Khanna told him, "If you can get the massive climate portion in, it will be 10-to-1 in terms of the positive impact, and I think you will be seen as helping make history as having ushered in, from the state of West Virginia, the most aggressive climate legislation in the history of the world."

— What Ro learned about Joe: Khanna said he learned three things about Manchin, the most studied man in Washington during Biden's first 18 months in office:

1. "He's a relationship person. He'll call you up, and he wants to just chat for a half hour. I think that is underestimated. You have to build a trust and a rapport with him to engage."

2. While many Senate Dems and top White House officials have cursed Manchin for being unreasonable and inscrutable through the long negotiations, Khanna argued he was consistent. "He's been pretty clear, from my perspective, in the year that I've dealt with him, about what he wants. You may not like what he wants — I don't like certain things he wants. But I've never found that he's not clear about it. It's not like he hasn't said what he's for and what he's against."

3. "The third thing is people watch their press clips. He's got a thick skin, but you go on television and say things, and people pay attention to that." Khanna said the attacks on Manchin's "integrity" and "calling into question his character" backfired. "If the goal is to get his vote, that was not going to do it. …I tend to think you get more with honey than vinegar."

A final surprising shoutout: Before he hung up, Khanna gave one other key player some credit for landing Manchin. "This deal likely would not have happened," he said, "without LARRY SUMMERS making the case to Senator Manchin and others about the bill not having inflationary impacts."

Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line and tell us if you think Sinema, MacDonough, or House progressives will be the biggest stumbling block for the IRA: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels , Ryan Lizza .

TRAGEDY IN INDIANA — Republican Rep. JACKIE WALORSKI, her communications director, EMMA THOMSON, and her district director, ZACHERY POTTS, were killed in a car crash Wednesday in Elkhart County. The driver of the vehicle that collided with theirs was also killed.

The 58-year-old Walorski was first elected in 2012, and was "an advocate for children and families and an influential voice for women in the House GOP conference, helping to grow their ranks over time," write Olivia Beavers and Sarah Ferris . More from the South Bend Tribune

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BIDEN'S THURSDAY:

— 10:45 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief.

— 1:45 p.m.: Biden will host a virtual roundtable with business and labor leaders to talk about the reconciliation bill.

Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 2:45 p.m.

VP KAMALA HARRIS' THURSDAY:

— 9:25 a.m.: The VP will leave D.C. for Boston.

— 10:45 a.m.: Harris will receive the President's Daily Brief.

— 12:50 p.m.: Harris will hold an abortion roundtable with Massachusetts state legislators and local leaders at IBEW Local 103.

— 2:35 p.m.: Harris will leave Boston for Martha's Vineyard, where she'll speak at a DNC fundraiser at 6:15 p.m. in Vineyard Haven.

— 7:30 p.m.: Harris will leave the Vineyard to return to Washington.

THE SENATE is in. FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY will testify before the Judiciary Committee at 10 a.m.

THE HOUSE is out.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today .

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, Attorney General Merrick Garland and Vice President Kamala Harris laugh after U.S. President Joe Biden, appearing via teleconference, noted that Harris was speaking while

DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, AG Merrick Garland and VP Kamala Harris laugh after President Joe Biden, appearing via teleconference, noted that Harris was speaking while "muted" during a meeting on Wednesday, August 3. | Win McNamee/Getty Images

PLAYBOOK READS

ALL POLITICS

KNOWING SAM BANKMAN-FRIED — The 30-year-old crypto billionaire and new Democratic megadonor "shares a penthouse with about 10 roommates and cooks for himself. He still uses his parents' Netflix account. When he lobbies in Washington, D.C., he'll often crash on his brother's couch," reports Elena Schneider in a new profile from Nassau, Bahamas (a real hardship assignment). And Dems shouldn't count on Bankman-Fried as their new savior: He has donated to some Republicans, too, and isn't sure what he wants to do in the future.

Having spent $40 million on campaigns so far this year, he's planning to shell out only half that amount for the general election. "He's more motivated by promoting new candidates in safe seats than the battleground combat that decides partisan control in Washington," Elena writes.

FOLLOW THE MONEY — If it's August, it's time for political candidates to hit the Hamptons to schmooze with wealthy donors. More than a dozen fundraisers will take place there this month, reports CNBC's Brian Schwartz . Democrats include STACEY ABRAMS, Rep. KAREN BASS (Calif.), New York Gov. KATHY HOCHUL and WES MOORE ; Republicans with scheduled or potential Hamptons stops include Sens. TOM COTTON (Ark.) and BEN SASSE (Neb.), Florida Gov. RON DESANTIS, House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY and former VP MIKE PENCE.

2023 DREAMING — House Republicans could significantly increase their Latino ranks in the midterms, part of an intentional push to diversify the conference and attract more Latino voters to the GOP, Ally Mutnick reports . "Several Republican Latino candidates running this election year said they or their family members used to be Democrats before the party drifted left. Recruiters claim the increase in Latino candidates is an outgrowth of that movement."

2024 WATCH — Among congressional Dems, steadfast support for Biden's agenda belies the fact that "there's been a slight but unmistakable political drift away from him ahead of the midterms," Burgess Everett and Sarah Ferris report . Many of them don't exactly want to endorse his reelection bid yet when asked.

THE WHITE HOUSE

THE VIEW FROM 1600 PENN — Inside the White House, even after a pretty good week for Democrats, staffers are pessimistic about any pre-midterms rebound for the president's popularity, David Siders and Chris Cadelago report this morning . They're trying to highlight Democratic supporters to counter some of the intraparty skepticism about 2024.

CONGRESS

NATO NEAR-UNANIMITY — The Senate voted 95-1-1 to ratify the entrance of Finland and Sweden into NATO, with Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) voting present. Only Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) voted no, striking a lonely isolationist stance on foreign policy and earning an implicit rebuke from Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.).

Cotton: "It would be strange indeed for any senator who voted to allow Montenegro or North Macedonia into NATO to turn around and deny membership to Finland and Sweden. … I would love to hear the defense of such a curious vote." More from Andrew Desiderio

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

THE INVESTIGATIONS — Federal prosecutors' Jan. 6 investigation has subpoenaed Trump White House deputy counsel PATRICK PHILBIN, CNN's Katelyn Polantz and Pamela Brown scooped . The subpoena covers both testimony and documents, and it follows a similar request to Philbin's boss PAT CIPOLLONE. "Executive privilege will play a role in the discussions over Philbin's grand jury testimony."

— Any effort by Trump to try to use executive privilege against the DOJ investigation will face long odds of succeeding, report Kyle Cheney, Josh Gerstein and Betsy Woodruff Swan .

COMMITTEE LATEST — The House Jan. 6 committee plans to seek ALEX JONES' texts and emails that his lawyer accidentally sent to the attorney for plaintiffs in the defamation case against him, Rolling Stone's Adam Rawnsley and Asawin Suebsaeng scooped .

— In court Wednesday, Jones admitted that the school massacre at Sandy Hook was "100% real." The day's recap via the AP … WATCH: "'This is not your show': Judge tells Alex Jones he 'must tell the truth' while testifying"

EAST OF EASTMAN — Even after Biden was inaugurated, JOHN EASTMAN was still scrounging for proof of voter fraud, emailing RUDY GIULIANI about trying to find malfeasance in the Georgia Senate runoffs, NYT's Maggie Haberman and Luke Broadwater report . He also sought Giuliani's assistance with a $270,000 invoice he'd sent to the Trump campaign.

THE MISSING TEXTS — As questions swirl about DHS IG JOSEPH CUFFARI, a new story from WaPo's Lisa Rein, Carol Leonnig and Maria Sacchetti reveals that he "previously was accused of misleading Justice Department investigators and running 'afoul' of ethics regulations while he was a federal agent in charge of a DOJ inspector general field office in Tucson" in a 2013 report.

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ABORTION FALLOUT

WHAT'S THE MATTER AFTER KANSAS — Following the big vote in Kansas, abortion rights advocates are feeling hopeful about ballot measures coming in November in Michigan and elsewhere — and about the issue's ability to energize Democratic voters, reports Alice Miranda Ollstein from Overland Park. But opponents of abortion rights, while heartbroken by the result, "insist it won't change their strategy."

— NYT's Nate Cohn: "Kansas Result Suggests 4 Out of 5 States Would Back Abortion Rights in Similar Vote"

— John Harris is out with a new column looking at the Dobbs decision in light of the Kansas vote , and offers this provocative question: "In overturning Roe v. Wade … [Justice SAMUEL] ALITO asserted that the that the place to decide the morality and legality of abortion is not the Supreme Court but the political process in 50 states. So what does Alito think now, in the wake of Kansas voters resoundingly rejecting a proposal to remove protections for abortion rights from their state constitution?"

TRUMP CARDS

TRUMP INC. — DONALD TRUMP JR. and IVANKA TRUMP were deposed in recent days in New York AG TISH JAMES' civil probe into the Trump Organization, CNN's Kara Scannell, Sonia Moghe and Amya Henry report .

POLICY CORNER

MONKEYPOX LATEST — The revelations about federal officials' failures this year on monkeypox vaccines keep arriving: The early lack of doses "was caused in part because the Department of Health and Human Services failed early on to ask that bulk stocks of the vaccine it already owned be bottled for distribution," report NYT's Sharon LaFraniere, Noah Weiland and Joseph Goldstein .

— For AIDS activists of yore, the slow federal response has dredged up painful memories and fresh criticism of government officials who they say haven't done enough yet again to protect gay and bisexual men at risk, Eugene and Adam Cancryn report .

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

THE TAIWAN TRIP — As Pelosi returns from her controversial but ultimately smooth trip to Taiwan, Phelim Kine writes in a new analysis that "the Biden administration's fumbling of the public narrative for Pelosi's trip bolstered the Chinese government's depiction of her journey as an inflammatory escalation in U.S. engagement with Taiwan."

— The Beijing response: As China today commences military drills near Taiwan in retaliation for Pelosi's trip, the U.S. is watching warily to see if more provocative steps push past what in previous exercises has seemed like "mostly bluster," report Lara Seligman and Paul McLeary .

— Now, the White House is pushing Senate Dems to stop a bill that would designate Taiwan a major non-NATO ally, Bloomberg's Jenny Leonard and Erik Wasson report .

THE PANDEMIC

INCOMING — The CDC will issue new Covid-19 guidance for schools and communities soon, including recommendations that will ease up on regular testing in schools ("test to stay") and staying six feet apart, CNN's Brenda Goodman and Elizabeth Cohen scooped .

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Jonathan Lemire's new book, "The Big Lie," debuted at No. 2 on the NYT bestseller list . (Congrats!)

Rusty Bowers , who was defeated on Tuesday in his state House primary, has no regrets about testifying before the Jan. 6 committee: "I would do it again in a heartbeat," the Arizona House speaker said Wednesday, per the AP . "I'd do it 50 times in a row."

Karoline Leavitt, a former Trump White House assistant press secretary, and Matt Mowers , former chief of staff to Trump White House Covid czar Deborah Birx, will debate tonight in New Hampshire , where they are both running in a House GOP primary .

Paul Pelosi, the speaker's husband, pleaded not guilty to driving under the influence in Napa.

SPOTTED: DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and second gentleman Doug Emhoff having dinner together Wednesday night at Cafe Milano. … Ernest Moniz having dinner at Bombay Club on Wednesday night.

NEW NOMINEES — The White House announced several new nominees, including David Crane as undersecretary of Energy for infrastructure, Richard Weiner as director of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Colleen Shogan as archivist of the United States, Robert Shriver as deputy director of the Office of Personnel Management, Bijan Sabet as ambassador to the Czech Republic, Eric Kneedler as ambassador to Rwanda and Elizabeth Rood as ambassador to Turkmenistan.

STAFFING UP — Air Force Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder is expected to be named the next Pentagon press secretary, a rare uniformed officer to fill the role, reports CNN's Barbara Starr . … Daria Berstell is now a legislative analyst at HHS' Office of the Assistant Secretary for Legislation. She most recently was a professional staff member at the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, and is a House Veterans' Affairs Committee alum.

WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Amber Greene is now special assistant to the president for racial and economic justice. She most recently was deputy director for media relations and corporate comms at the Port Authority of New York & New Jersey.

NSC ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Shani Spivak is now director for emerging technology and secure digital innovation at the NSC. She most recently was a science and technology adviser at the FBI.

TRANSITIONS — Nate Anderson is joining the Stand Together Foundation as EVP for operations. He previously was executive director of Concerned Veterans for America. Russ Duerstine will move up to lead CVA, where he previously was acting director and deputy director. … Zachery Henry is now comms director for Blake Masters' Arizona Senate campaign. He previously was digital director at Raconteur Media Company and is an Arizona Republican Party and Kelli Ward alum. … David Spirk is now senior counselor at Palantir. He previously was the first chief data officer at DOD. …

… John Desser is now SVP for government affairs at HealthEquity. He most recently was SVP for government affairs at eHealth. … Illy Jaffer will be managing director of federal government relations for Blue Cross Blue Shield Association. She currently is director of federal relations for the American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network, and is a Democratic advance veteran. … Steve Glickman is now president of Aspiration Global. He previously was co-founder of the Economic Innovation Group and is an Obama White House and Commerce Department alum.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Liza Pluto, media relations manager at MSNBC, and Evan Lukaske, comms director for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), on Friday welcomed Mila Rose Lukaske, who came in at 8 lbs, 6 oz. Pic Another pic

— Patrick Hughes, VP for strategy, technical and industry affairs at the National Electrical Manufacturers Association, and Amy Sticklor, an international development consultant, welcomed Ivy Ella Sticklor Hughes on July 28. Pic

— William Lane, an associate at Wiley Rein LLP, a senior counsel with The Article III Project and a Trump DOJ alum, and Kaytlin Lane, chief counsel for Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), welcomed Elizabeth Cordelia Lane on July 10. Pic Another pic

BIRTHWEEK (was Monday): David Helfenbein

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Former President Barack Obama … House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) … Rep. Tom Rice (R-S.C.) … AP's Seung Min Kim Bret Baier … Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds … The Hill's Bob Cusack … WaPo's Joby Warrick and Mike Madden … Chicago Mayor Lori LightfootAlex Mallin of ABC … CBS' Katie Watson … USA Today's Deirdre Shesgreen Chloe Singer Caren Auchman of Lewis … Joel Bailey of BGR Group … Andrea Hechavarria of Butterfly Network … CNN's Greg KriegPete Brodnitz POLITICO's Ashley Ryan and Michael Schaffer Brett Loper ... Kate MichelmanReagan Anderson ... Emil Hill … DSCC's Claire Berry Chad Kolton … former A.G. Alberto Gonzales … Something Major's Randi Braun Amelia Irvine … Minnesota A.G. Keith Ellison … former Rep. Rob Andrews (D-N.J.) … former U.S. Treasurer Rosario MarinOlivia Imhoff … former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland … Rokk Solutions' Varuna Bhatia … American Conservation Coalition's Logan Lus Ron Bodinson (77) … Andrei Cherny

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