Thursday, August 4, 2022

POLITICO Florida Playbook: The outlook for an abortion rights amendment in Florida

Gary Fineout's must-read briefing on what's hot, crazy or shady about politics in the Sunshine State
Aug 04, 2022 View in browser
 
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By Gary Fineout

Hello and welcome to Thursday.

Reverberation — The surprising outcome of Tuesday's vote in Kansas where a proposal to strip abortion rights out of that state's constitution was overwhelmingly defeated has sparked some to wonder if Florida voters could act as well.

Coming soon? During a televised forum put together this week by the Orlando Sentinel, Tampa Bay Times, Spectrum News 13 and Bay News 9, Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried touched on the idea. Fried said she has put together a legal team to draw up language on a ballot initiative that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution.

Sense of urgency Fried said such action was needed because she anticipates the Florida Supreme Court will eventually uphold the state's new ban on abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy. She also expects it to reverse a previous high court ruling from 1989 that found that the state's existing privacy clause applies to abortion rights. "We have to know that we've got to be taking proactive steps today. We can't wait for the Supreme Court to come back and say we don't have that right to privacy," she said.

Not easy The problem looming over all of this is that Florida's citizen initiative process has been severely restricted in recent years by the Florida Legislature. The Republican-controlled Legislature — at the urging of groups such as the Florida Chamber of Commerce — have pushed to cut down on citizen initiatives after voters approved measures creating a $15 minimum wage, legalizing medical marijuana and restoring voting rights for many people with felony convictions.

Hurdles — Some of the changes include raising the threshold needed to pass an amendment to 60 percent. But more recent changes affecting how voter signatures are collected, how long the signatures remain valid, when the Supreme Court reviews the ballot language have also made it harder to make the ballot. An effort by the Legislature to limit campaign donations for citizen initiatives has been thrown out by a federal judge.

Recent history Look no further than the efforts by gambling interests to make the 2022 ballot. Two separate groups pushing amendments revolving around casinos and sports betting spent a jaw-dropping $116 million and were still unable to make it in time. There are only three amendments on this year's ballot — and all of them were put there by the Florida Legislature, not outside groups.

Caution John Sowinski, a veteran consultant who has worked for or against 15 citizen initiatives during his career, ranging from term limits to a measure designed to limit gambling expansion, said it's "not impossible" but after all the recent changes it is "extremely difficult" for those pushing citizen initiatives. "It takes a huge amount of money, it takes a huge amount of organization and good timing," Sowinski told Playbook. "You can't start six months before the deadline and expect to make it."

Translation If Democratic and abortion rights activists want to make the 2024 ballot then they would need to start gearing up now or in the very near future. It takes nearly 900,000 signatures to make the ballot — and those signatures must be collected, submitted and verified by February 2024.

— WHERE'S RON? — Gov. Ron DeSantis is in Tampa where he is expected to make a "major announcement" with Attorney General Ashley Moody.

Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch: gfineout@politico.com

 

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CAMPAIGN MODE

CRIST V. FRIED GETTING MEANER The negative tone in the primary between Rep. Charlie Crist and Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried is escalating. Fried's political committee started airing an ad on Wednesday in the Orlando-Daytona Beach area that torches Crist over his appointment of conservative Charles Canady to the state Supreme Court when Crist was governor and a Republican. The ad notes some of Canady's more recent rulings and says "Who appointed this right wing radical? Not Republican Ron DeSantis. It was Republican Charlie Crist."

Incoming — Well, it looks like the Crist campaign plans to respond. Crist's political committee on Wednesday booked more than $600,000 in ad time on cable and broadcast in several markets. Sam Ramirez , a spokeswoman for Crist's campaign, contended in an email that Fried is "running the most negative campaign in modern Florida history. …Now, Nikki's first TV ad is a negative attack against a fellow Democrat. She tried to pull the wool over people's eyes by rolling out her mannequin ad on Twitter — but on TV screens across Florida, she's only airing her negative ad." Ramirez added that while the campaign had been airing an ad focused on Gov. Ron DeSantis, "now that he has been attacked, make no mistake: Charlie and our campaign will strongly stand up for his record against these kinds of falsehoods."

Commissioner Nikki Fried, left, and Rep. Charlie Crist shake hands.

Commissioner Nikki Fried, left, and Rep. Charlie Crist shake hands moments before the Telemundo 51 / NBC 6 "Decision 2022: Democratic Gubernatorial Debate" in Miramar, Fla. | Telemundo 51 & NBC 6


DESANTIS HITS AIRWAVES DeSantis highlights Covid-19 response in opening campaign ad , by POLITICO's Gary Fineout: The ad is notable because of its length, since many campaign ads are usually 30 seconds or shorter. But it also strikes a positive tone, which itself is a bit of departure from the governor's usually combative persona and his campaign rallying cry that he will not "back down" from fights with Democrats, the media and others he has decried as the liberal elite. The ad includes images of DeSantis reading letters from several people who praise him for his decisions during the pandemic, although one writer also praises him for standing up to the "woke liberal media." Offscreen voices say: "Without your leadership, we wouldn't have been able to stay open. Because of you, my child has thrived through this pandemic. The monoclonal antibodies saved my mother's life. I'm 11 years old and I'm glad I could go to school."

ROUND 2 — DeSantis and other candidates running for statewide office got their second batch of taxpayer money last week, according to information posted late Wednesday by the state Division of Elections. DeSantis received a payment of nearly $900,000 in public matching funds, bringing his total this election season to $4.24 million. Crist pulled in nearly $388,000 while Fried received nearly $129,000. Crist has now taken in $1.35 million in public money overall while Fried has gotten nearly $763,000.

The rest Attorney General Ashley Moody received $5,445, while Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis received more than $15,000. Under Florida's matching funds program, candidates receive money based on how much is donated by state residents. Candidates do not receive matching funds for donations from corporations and out-of-state residents. Some Florida Republicans in the past have called the matching program "welfare for politicians" and did not take the money. Wilton Simpson, the Republican Senate president running for agriculture commissioner, did not apply for the matching program.

PRIMARY COLORS — " After 16 Florida elections, Charlie Crist gears up for one more ," by Tampa Bay Times' Lawrence Mower: "The last time Charlie Crist was considering a run for Florida governor, in 2014, he shared a moment of clarity with one of his consultants. 'He said, 'Steve, I feel like I can beat the money or I can beat the environment, but I can't beat them both,' Democratic consultant Steve Schale said. Crist would be proven right: He narrowly lost after being outspent by then-Gov. Rick Scott in a historic GOP wave. Although he might not admit it, both the money and the environment are worse this year as he makes his third run for Florida governor."

PRIMARY COLORS PART 2 — " Nikki Fried is running for governor. Is she an insider or an outsider? " by Tampa Bay Times' Kirby Wilson: "Fried's campaign to become the first woman elected governor of Florida focuses on her as an outsider. The operation's slogan is 'Something New for Florida' — a clear contrast with political fixture Charlie Crist, her Democratic primary opponent. Fried's candidacy offers something fresh, her campaign insists: Before she became agriculture commissioner in 2018, she never had held elected public office. But examine Fried's life closely enough, and it's hard to see her as an outsider. Fried, a lifelong striver and meticulous planner, wants to be on the inside. And she believes the way to get there is by consensus."

— " Crist and Fried make their sell to Democratic voters in back-to-back TV specials ," by Tampa Bay Times' Romy Ellenbogen

FAMILY DRAMA — " Lake Ray's estranged sister endorses, donates to HD 16 primary opponent ," by Florida Politics' A.G. Gancarski: "Lori Ray's married name is Yarborough, but she said she used her maiden name to make the donation to underscore a larger point. Ray's campaign was contacted about the circumstances of the donation and the story changed over time. Ray and his political consultant initially denied any relation, leading to the article being pulled until Lori Ray emailed Florida Politics, sent us photographic proof, and offered plenty of corroborating details establishing the relationship, including their mutual blood type and other specific childhood anecdotes."

CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP — Maxwell Alejandro Frost, one of the Democrats running for Florida's 10th Congressional District, is picking up a bevy of major endorsements from several unions ahead of the Aug. 23 primary. Frost announced on Thursday that the AFL-CIO, American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), National Nurses United (NNU), Florida Education Association (FEA), and the Orange County Classroom Teachers Association had all endorsed his campaign. "Strong labor unions are essential for a fair economy that works for everyone and it will be my mission to help strengthen them and help make sure more people have the ability to be a part of one. I'm proud to have the support of all of these unions and the tens of thousands of union members they represent in Central Florida," Frost said in a statement.

… Florida Immigrant Coalition Votes has scheduled a Thursday press conference where it is expected the organization will announce that it is endorsing Crist in the governor's race.

Eight Florida sheriffs, including Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd, have endorsed Rep. Scott Franklin for reelection in Florida's 18th Congressional District. Franklin's revamped district includes parts of all eight counties.

The Florida Home Builders Association endorsed Republican Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis for reelection.

The Florida Chamber of Commerce endorsed GOP Attorney General Ashley Moody for reelection.

— "' Outright lies': Lake's GOP election chief blasts voting misinformation from fellow Republicans ," by Orlando Sentinel's Skyler Swisher

— " CD 10 Democratic debate focuses on who can be most effective ," by Florida Politics' Scott Powers

— " Dailey files elections complaints against Dozier alleging 'shady' dark money mailers ," by Tallahassee Democrat's Karl Etters

— " Daniella Levine Cava threatens to sue over misleading photo with HD 113 candidate ," by Florida Politics' Jesse Scheckner

... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...

'WE'RE NOT DOING FEAR' — DeSantis claims concern over monkeypox is overblown , by POLITICO's Arek Sarkissian: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Wednesday attempted to downplay anxiety over monkeypox, saying that politicians and the media have overblown the severity of the disease and equated it to fears surrounding Covid-19. Florida had 525 monkeypox infections as of Tuesday, according to a state database, which is an increase from the roughly 350 infections from late last week. Florida had the fifth highest number of cases in the nation as of Monday, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "I am so sick of politicians, and we saw this with Covid, trying to sow fear into the population," DeSantis said during a press conference near Orlando. "We're not doing fear."

'I THINK IT'S WRONG POLITICS' — "' History is repeating itself.' Are DeSantis' policies stoking racial divisions? " by Miami Herald's C. Isaiah Smalls II: "As [Gov. Ron] DeSantis campaigns for reelection, [Rev. R.B] Holmes and some other Black Floridians say their home state has regressed under the Republican governor whose policies appear more geared towards capturing a national audience. They point to laws signed by DeSantis — from the "Stop Woke Act" to the anti-riot bill — and his unprecedented control over the redrawing of Florida's congressional maps as evidence that he's more concerned about White House aspirations than issues affecting Black communities."

POWER PLAY PSC sides with Florida Power & Light in striking testimony against nearly $15B storm-hardening project , by POLITICO's Bruce Ritchie: Utility rates could play a role in the upcoming race for governor as the Office of Public Counsel argues that customers statewide are facing increasing rates along with utility requests to charge customers more for fuel and other costs including storm protection. Gov. Ron DeSantis in April vetoed a rooftop solar bill, FL HB 741, supported by FPL because it would have allowed utilities to charge their customers for what they claim are subsidies for owners of rooftop solar panels. Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.), a former Republican governor who is running in the Democratic primary to unseat DeSantis, has described regulators as "lap dogs rather than watch dogs" and vowed to break what he calls the "iron grip" of utilities over state government. Critics say the PSC should give more scrutiny to the grid-hardening programs being proposed by utilities in their 10-year plans provided by FL SB 796.

— " State worker, consultant plead guilty in bribery scheme ," by The Associated Press

— " The dizzying realities of battling cancer: First Lady announces launch of FL cancer resource site ," by Florida Phoenix's Danielle J. Brown

— " Send in the Marines: Ron DeSantis defends ex-military teachers over education majors ," by Florida Politics' A.G. Gancarski

 

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TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP

LIMITED OPTIONS — Trump faces uphill fight on executive privilege in DOJ probe , by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney, Josh Gerstein and Betsy Woodruff Swan: Donald Trump's camp has yet to say whether he'll try to use executive privilege to disrupt the Justice Department's grand jury investigation into attempts to overturn the 2020 election. But if he does, it could be a very short fight. A series of court rulings prompted by Trump's effort to stymie the House Jan. 6 select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol sharply rejected Trump's bid to wield the power as a former president. In fact, the Supreme Court agreed that Trump's effort to assert privilege would have failed even if he were the sitting president, effectively granting the committee access to Trump's White House papers.

THE GUNSHINE STATE

'THIS IS THE CRIME SCENE HE CHOSE' — " Parkland jury to follow killer's path through Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School ," by South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Rafael Olmeda and Lisa J. Huriash: "Jurors in the Parkland mass shooting trial will retrace the path of the confessed gunman Thursday morning through the hallways and stairwells of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, an exercise the prosecution says is necessary to truly understand the crime that was committed and the terror experienced by the victims. 'This is the crime scene that he chose,' said prosecutor Jeff Marcus, arguing that jurors should be allowed to enter the classrooms so they could see not only where students died, but where they hid to escape death."

PENINSULA AND BEYOND

PUSHING BACK — " Leader of Bridges of Love denies Rubio's accusations that the group works for Cuba ," by El Nuevo Herald's Nora Gámez Torres: "The leader of the anti-embargo group Bridges of Love denied the organization has ties to the Cuban government, following accusations made by U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio that its members are acting as unregistered foreign agents of Cuba. In a letter Monday, Rubio asked the FBI to open an investigation into the organization's activities."

Response — "In a phone call from Havana, Carlos Lazo, the high school teacher who founded the group, said he was not aware of any work he or other members have carried out that would be considered a breach of the Foreign Agents Registration Act, which requires people and entities working as 'agents' acting under the direction of foreign governments or organizations to register with the U.S. Department of Justice. 'We do not believe that we are in violation of any law,' Lazo said. Puentes de Amor, as the organization is known in Spanish, 'does not receive funding from any government or anyone.'"

— " Florida fights soaring rate of fentanyl overdoses with new statewide program ," by South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Cindy Krischer Goodman

— " South Florida abortion clinic fights $41,000 state fine over waiting period ," by News Service of Florida's Jim Saunders

ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN

BIRTHDAYS: State Rep. Andrew LearnedLeonora LaPeter Anton of the Tampa Bay Times … Herbie Thiele with Sachs Media

 

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