⬇️Early Data Shows We’re Looking at Another Quarterly GDP Drop

Good morning. We've called it a recession since the first quarter data came out. That was...

It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. We've called it a recession since the first quarter data came out. That was confirmed by a second quarterly drop just last week – even as the goalposts have been moved on the definition of a recession. Ready for a third quarterly drop in a row? The data suggests we may already be there. The data in question is the services PMI. It's showing a large amount of declining output – in fact, the largest recorded since the global financial crisis in 2008. That, combined with a slowdown in consumer spending and home prices, points to a third quarterly decline this year. Of course, we have until the end of September for the data to show a turnaround. If inflation data shows a peak, markets may start to move meaningfully higher, recession or not. For now, the data is a bit at odds with the market's recent rally. Traders should continue to expect big daily volatility, and plenty of trading opportunities both long and short. Now here's the rest of the news: Sponsored Content 2 Dividend Stocks that Deliver Cash Weekly Are you still looking for consistent income in this near-zero interest rate environment? There is a better way. I just revealed the Holy Grail of dividend stocks - a safe, reliable and consistent stock that pays dividends EVERY single week - 52 times a year. It's simple: Buy the stock this Monday and you'll get your first dividend payout in your bank account this Thursday....and then every Thursday after for as long as you own the stock! Tap here to reveal the name of this stock for FREE. MARKETS DOW 32,812.50 +1.29% S&P 4,155.17 +1.56% NASDAQ 12,668.16 +2.59% *As of market close • Stocks soared higher on Wednesday, on strong tech earnings. • Oil dropped 3.8 percent, closing at $90.81 per barrel. • Gold sank 0.4 percent, last going for $1,783 per ounce. • Cryptocurrencies moved higher, with Bitcoin at $23,461 at the stock market close. Today's TOP TIPS Uncertain Post-Pandemic Trends Are Creating Buying Opportunities Investors always have to contend with uncertainty. And while the world has changed thanks to the pandemic, it's clear that some trends are heading back to pre-pandemic ways. One such way is with travel. Both air travel numbers and other data indicate that consumers still want to travel, even with the risks involved. Nevertheless, short-term economic fears are now potentially weighing on that recovery. But such fears often prove unfounded in time. For now, that may be creating a buying opportunity. » FULL STORY Insider Trading Report: Pitney Bowes (PBI) James Fairweather, an EVP at Pitney Bowes (PBI), recently picked up 4,335 shares. The buy increased his holdings by just over 3 percent, and came to a total cost just under $15,000. The buy comes a few days after the company's Chief Legal Officer picked up 3,013 shares, at a cost of about $10,000. Going back further, insider buys from directors and executives have far exceeded sales in the past three years. » FULL STORY Unusual Options Activity: Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) Shares of mortgage REIT Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) have shed about 7 percent of their value in the past year. One trader sees the potential for shares to drop even further. That's based on the January 2024 $10 puts. With 533 days until expiration, 7,631 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 129, for a 59-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $0.95 to make the bearish bet. » FULL STORY IN OTHER NEWS • OPEC Agrees to Production Increase Members of OPEC agreed to increase production modestly in September. The cartel will expand production by 100,000 barrels per day. The small increase in production likely isn't enough to offset rising energy prices. But it's also a sign that the cartel remains concerned about overproducing as the global economy slows. • Small Business Confidence Hits All-Time Low A worsening outlook among small business owners has caused confidence to hit an all-time low. At present, 77 percent of small business owners expect inflation to continue to rise, and only about one quarter of owners have faith in the current monetary policy being pursued by the Federal Reserve. • China Hits Taiwan with Trade Restrictions China is suspending some trade with Taiwan, amid rising escalations, including a visit by Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. The two countries have about $273 billion in bilateral trade, or about 33 percent of Taiwan's global trade. China is curbing imports of fruits and fish from Taiwan. • Senate Bill Would Regulate Bitcoin and Ethereum as Commodities A proposed bill in the US Senate would empower the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to have oversight over Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two largest cryptocurrencies. The bill has bipartisan sponsors, and would expand the CFTC beyond its role in derivative investments like futures and swaps, while still leaving other regulatory agencies responsible for other cryptocurrencies. • Thoma Bravo Makes $2.8 Billion Acquisition of Ping Identity Enterprise identity management company Ping Identity is being picked up by private equity form Thoma Bravo for $2.8 billion. The cost is about 63 percent higher than where Ping shares traded before the announcement. The company was previously owned by a private equity firm before going public in early 2020. S&P 500 MOVERS TOP MRNA 16.809% PYPL 8.82% NLOK  7.425% DISH 6.626% CDAY 6.296% BOTTOM SEDG 18.377% MTCH 17.162% STE 9.415% AIZ  9.011% CRL 8.504% Quote of the Day When you have this rebound in risk assets that we've seen, really what that's telling me is the Fed has done nowhere enough damage to make the mark that they need to slow down inflation. - John Luke Tyner, portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors, on why the Fed may continue to hike interest rates more than the market has priced in so far this year, and why stocks could see a further leg down as a result. Sponsored Content 2 Dividend Stocks that Deliver Cash Weekly Are you still looking for consistent income in this near-zero interest rate environment? There is a better way. I just revealed the Holy Grail of dividend stocks - a safe, reliable and consistent stock that pays dividends EVERY single week - 52 times a year. It's simple: Buy the stock this Monday and you'll get your first dividend payout in your bank account this Thursday....and then every Thursday after for as long as you own the stock! Tap here to reveal the name of this stock for FREE. Not sure the best way to get started? Follow these simple steps to hit the ground running. › Step #1 - Get These FREE Reports: Warren Buffett's Top 5 Stocks | 10 Great Stocks Under $10 | 7 High Yield Dividend Stocks › Step #2 - Join Our Premium Advisory: The Next Superstock › Step #3 - Claim Your Free Copy Of: Big Book Of Chart Patterns | How to Trade Weekly Options For Weekly Income We just wanted to take a moment and say thank you so much for being part of our family! We are dedicated to teaching people how to make the world a better place so we can all thrive, together. We love sharing stories and featuring past learners who have applied our teachings and changed their situations. 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