Thursday, August 25, 2022

The Market's Honey Hole

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A Note From the Associate Publisher: For nearly two weeks, Andy has been sending me pictures - like the one below - from his tour of the Baltic and North seas. I'm not sure whether his goal was simply to make me jealous... or to inspire me to lug my wife and kids over to Europe. Regardless, his nautical adventures got me thinking about something crucial that we touched on all the way back in December...

Gent, Belgium waterway
 

As we sailed toward what would become a very turbulent year for stocks and crypto, Andy shared some advice that's even more relevant for investors now than it was back then. (As an added bonus, it even fits today's seafaring theme.) So while Andy reacclimates himself to Eastern Standard Time, I want to share his important message with you once more.

It's a worthy read.

- Alex



Andy Snyder

Andy Snyder
Founder

How about some unsolicited self-help advice?

If you're looking to make more money and feel better about your finances, you're going to like this.

We like it because the story behind it brings us back to our youth... and the days when we could feel the wind blowing through our hair.

During college and then grad school, we got paid to fish. We even wrote a book about it. We fished all over the country but spent most of our time many miles off the mid-Atlantic coast before heading way up north to Alaska's protected coastal saltwater.

What a time it was.

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For several seasons, we were the hot boat. Folks knew who we were and that we'd almost certainly be on the fish.

We'd often attract a crowd of six or more boats. One would see us and start fishing nearby. Then another would see multiple boats on his radar screen and assume we were onto something. Then another... and another.

We got used to it. But sometimes we'd have some fun with it.

Tricked Ya

Every once in a while, we'd throttle up, move to a featureless spot and just drift and eat lunch.

Sure enough... the boats would follow.

That's because most guys never bothered to make a plan. They just went where everybody else was going.

To the inexperienced, it may sound like a good idea. Weren't those guys just following the path of the experienced and successful? They might have had only one or two days on the water all month... Weren't they just being efficient with their time?

Nope.

Like all things this simple... there's a catch.

Most days, we were fishing atop a very small piece of structure, like an old shipwreck or a pile of rocks. Those are great spots... unless you drift 10 feet off of them. Then you don't catch anything.

Other days, we were looking to do something unique and special (like catching a huge halibut on an extremely light line).

And sometimes, we were down below, fixing the head.

This idea becomes very important in the realm of investing.

Perhaps Warren Buffett is loading up on insurance stocks again. The mainstream press loves to tout whatever the Oracle is buying.

But should you follow him?

Maybe. But probably not.

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Maybe he's found the market's honey hole. More likely, he's just buying insurance companies for their reliable cash flow... and will make his real money somewhere else.

That's how he got rich.

But if you follow him and buy only the insurer, you'll be in trouble.

In life, people do a lot of things because everybody else is doing them.

But we learned there's a much better way to do things. It, too, has to do with boats and how we get from here to there.

Follow Your Chart

Again, lots of folks determine where they are going by merely scanning the horizon to find the crowd. As we're prone to say, it's a recipe for mediocrity.

But there's a much more effective way of ensuring you'll get where you want to go. Every good captain knows it.

It's called "dead reckoning."

It's the art of getting somewhere by looking only at where you've been.

On the water, we measure the distance between point A and point B. Then we calculate speed, wind and current and account for any obstacles in the way. We can then determine exactly how long it will take us to get where we're going.

Done right, it's incredibly accurate.

But it all starts with a plan. We must know where we are going.

The crowd may already be there... or we may be entirely on our own. It doesn't matter.

But here's the real mind-blower of this idea. It has to do with the reason we invest.

Once again, lots of folks simply want to go where everybody else is. That's why they pile into debt... so they can be just like the next guy, who's also deep in the hole.

A man's neighbor has a hot car. So he needs a hot car too.

Both have what they think they want... but both aren't "catching fish." In most cases, neither is.

There's a better way to build happiness and financial success.

Again... dead reckoning.

With this form of navigation, following the crowd is deadly. Instead, we merely track where we were and compare it to where we're going.

In other words... are we closer to our goal than we were yesterday? Did we hit our goal for that day?

That's it. Very simple.

Just keep asking those questions, make corrections to maintain your course... and eventually you'll get there.

Set your plan. Chart your course. And follow it every day.

You will reach your goal.

We guarantee it.

The crowd might just be watching some bozo eat lunch. But you'll be catching the haul of your life.

Be well,

Andy

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Andy Snyder | Founder

Andy Snyder is the founder of Manward Press, the nation's premier source of unfiltered, unorthodox views on money and what it means for a free society. An American author, investor and serial entrepreneur, Andy cut his teeth at an esteemed financial firm with nearly $100 billion in assets under management. He's been a keynote speaker and panelist at events all over the world, from four-star ballrooms to Capitol hearing rooms.

 

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