News : POLITICO New Jersey Playbook: What a N.Y. election tells us about N.J.

Thursday, August 25, 2022

POLITICO New Jersey Playbook: What a N.Y. election tells us about N.J.

Aug 25, 2022

Presented by NextEra Energy Transmission

Good Thursday morning.

Every race is unique, but the results of the special congressional election in New York's 19th District probably could tell us something about New Jersey's upcoming congressional races.

The victory of Democrat Pat Ryan over Republican Mark Molinaro shows what even some New Jersey Democrats doubted would happen this spring: The overturning of Roe v. Wade has significantly changed the electoral landscape. Between this, the Kansas referendum on abortion rights and some other recent special elections, it's pretty clear.

A couple months ago, this was shaping up to be a major Republican wave year. President Joe Biden's deep unpopularity, high inflation and uncertainty about the economy looked insurmountable for Democrats. Then came Dobbs.

I know New York's 19th District pretty well. I'm originally from the Hudson Valley, and, in fact, I'm in the district right now as I take a sort of half-vacation. Democrats flipped the district in 2018 and easily held it in 2020, when Republicans didn't put up much of a fight. But it only went to Biden by 1.5 points and Molinaro was favored to win the special election to replace former Democratic incumbent Antonio Delgado , who left to be lieutenant governor. In a wave election year, that kind of district should be prime Republican pickup territory. And both Ryan and Molinaro, the Ulster and Dutchess county executives, respectively, were top-tier recruits.

Ryan ran a campaign that focused heavily on abortion. Molinaro ran on inflation and the economy. Sound familiar? It's the same playbook New Jersey candidates are using in swingy districts — especially District 7, Rep. Tom Maliniowski 's seat.

Of course there are other factors. The New York district has seen a pandemic influx of progressives moving in from New York City. Then again, so have North Jersey's suburbs. And a special election doesn't duplicate the kind of turnout we'll see in November. New Jersey native Dave Wasserman explains some of that in this Twitter thread.

I'd still say that Malinowski is the underdog in November to Tom Kean Jr. But the New York results seem to have confirmed his campaign strategy. And it takes some pressure off Andy Kim, Mikie Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer, Democrats who all got better districts thanks to redistricting tiebreaker John Wallace Jr., but who could be vulnerable in a Republican wave. I've got to add an obvious caveat: If the political environment changed this much in the last couple months, something could happen to change it again.

DAYS SINCE MURPHY REFUSED TO SAY WHETHER HIS WIFE'S NON-PROFIT SHOULD DISCLOSE DONORS: 190

TIPS? FEEDBACK? HATE MAIL? Email me at mfriedman@politico.com

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — Former Bergen freeholder Maura DeNicola, former Union County detective Michael Hoose, my sister-in-law, Miranda. Missed Tuesday: Kaufman Zita Group's Matt McDermott

WHERE'S MURPHY? At an undisclosed out-of-state location

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Most people in America don't understand this was a form of hate. This needs to be condemned and the organizers need to be told it's unacceptable and there should be more of a vetting process." — Dylan Terpstra, operations coordinator of the Council on American-Islamic Relations, on the inclusion of a bulldozer in Edison's Indian Day Parade that appears to symbolize the ruling Hindu nationalist party's retaliation against Muslim activists.

PROGRAMMING NOTE — NJ Playbook will be off next week. I'll return to your inbox on Tuesday, Sept. 6

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NextEra Energy is the world's largest generator of clean, renewable energy from the wind and sun. We have unrivaled experience completing complex, large-scale energy projects, doing them on time and on budget while putting customers first, prioritizing the environment, and working with local communities to create jobs and limit disruptions. It's what we do and what we'll do for New Jersey. That's because NextEra Energy Transmission is committed to empowering a greener New Jersey.

WHAT TRENTON MADE

BAIT AND SWITCH — "A corporate home buying boom is pricing you out of NJ: 'You can't compete with investors'," by The Asbury Park Press' Michael L. Diamond Stephen Stirling: "New Jersey's real estate market has been whipped and warped by a proliferation of corporate investors that have snapped up tens of thousands of homes, turning the state into a giant Monopoly game of the haves and the have-nots. Fortified by new federal and state tax breaks and billions in investor capital, limited liability companies, or LLCs, have locked out many first-time home buyers who can't compete with their all-cash offers. LLCs have forced tenants to fix sometimes crumbling homes at great cost, in some cases leading to health problems. And they have pushed out tenants who can't keep up with skyrocketing rent.

"An analysis by the Asbury Park Press of state sales and tax records has found the number of LLCs owning single- to four-family homes soared from 12,000 in 2012 to more than 72,000 last year. LLCs have mushroomed in big cities and small boroughs, in the north, central and south, accounting for about one in eight of all home sales in the state in the past five years, the Asbury Park Press has found."

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

EVEN BETTER THAN FREE DOORDASH — Rutgers med school administrators got big bonuses during pandemic as university faced financial problems, by POLITICO's Carly Sitrin : At least two high-ranking Rutgers medical school administrators were awarded six-figure bonuses during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic when New Jersey's health care workforce was strained and understaffed and the school had declared a financial emergency, documents show. The bonuses — some that neared $120,000 apiece — are in addition to bonuses POLITICO reported were paid to some Rutgers executive and dean level employees in 2020, also during the pandemic. … These newly revealed bonuses were discovered through public records requests from the Rutgers Biomedical and Health Sciences faculty union, payouts union representatives say raise ethical and accountability questions regarding the school and hospital system's public-private partnership, the use of public funds to boost the pay for some executives during a public health crisis and, more broadly, the privatization of a public health system in New Jersey.

—"New Jersey seeks to pass its own Voting Rights Act"

—"LD-28 Confidential: The potential for a proxy war ahead of 2025"

—" N.J. officials file lawsuits to address 'historic injustices' of pollution"

—"N.J. courts lift social distancing, masking rules"

—"N.J. Supreme Court rules against police who entered home without warrant"

—Opinion: " NJ police licensure law adds accountability for law enforcement, chiefs say"

—"Monkeypox disinformation: NJ tries to set record straight as vaccination demand continues "

—"Murphy to keynote major gaming conference"

BIDEN TIME

YOUNG PEOPLE STILL WON'T VOTE — Biden OKs sweeping student loan relief as midterms near, by POLITICO's Michael Stratford and Eugene Daniels: The Biden administration on Wednesday announced it was canceling up to $10,000 of student debt for millions of people and up to $20,000 of debt for low- and middle-income borrowers who previously received a Pell Grant. The loan relief will be limited to borrowers who earn less than $125,000 a year or families earning less than $250,000. In addition, the White House plans to extend the moratorium on monthly payments and interest for a "final time" through Dec. 31 .In a speech at the White House on Wednesday, Biden talked about the rising cost of attending college in the U.S., and the overwhelming burden this places on low- and middle-income Americans. "An entire generation is now saddled with unsustainable debt in exchange for an attempt, at least, at a college degree," Biden said.

—"Montclair State students: Biden loan forgiveness plan is weight off their shoulders"

A message from NextEra Energy Transmission:

LOCAL

LET THE PUBLIC OUTRAGE SUBSIDE — "Fulop agrees with Murphy on Jersey City's Amy DeGise: 'Let the court system play it out' ," by Hudson County View's John Heinis: "Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop agrees with Gov. Phil Murphy (D) regarding Councilwoman-at-Large Amy DeGise's hit-and-run, stating 'let the court system play it out' .... 'Look, I think I've been pretty clear: there's no reason you should ever leave the scene of an accident or crash, and at this point, I don't have any jurisdiction any more than the governor does and I agree with everything that the governor has said,' Fulop said after a ribbon cutting ceremony for the Jersey City Global Charter School. 'Let the court system play it out, the legal process, and then we'll take it from there.'"

RESPECT THE 69% — "Federal appeals court rejects bid to upend Jersey City Airbnb regulations," by The Jersey Journal's Jake Maher: "A federal appeals court has upheld Jersey City's short-term rental regulations that prompted the most expensive local referendum campaign in New Jersey history in 2019. 'We put lots of time to get this ordinance right from the start (and) this decision is good for residents/housing in our city,"'Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop wrote on social media. The federal Third Circuit Court of Appeals agreed with an earlier ruling by the District Court for New Jersey to dismiss a complaint brought by five short-term rental hosts against Jersey City. Chief Judge Michael Chagares issued the 35-page opinion on Aug. 16 … The Jersey City City Council passed the regulations in June 2019, but a month later a group submitted a petition with more than 20,000 signatures protesting the law, sending it to a city-wide referendum … voters overwhelmingly sided against Airbnb, with 69% of them voting in favor of the regulations."

VALDES STILL AFLOAT — "'Scandalous,' 'abusive' suit allegations against Passaic prosecutor Valdes thrown out ," by The Record's Steve Janoski: "A state judge has dismissed the bulk of a lawsuit against Passaic County Prosecutor Camelia Valdes and removed her as a defendant in the case, handing the embattled prosecutor a victory as she seeks a third term as the county's top law enforcement officer. The lawsuit, first filed this spring in state Superior Court in Paterson, claimed Valdes froze out and retaliated against one of her employees, media specialist Henry Hernandez, after he refused to process compact discs that held inappropriate pictures of her and her husband."

STILL FOR ELIMINATING MANDATORY MINIMUMS FOR OFFICIAL MISCONDUCT — "Trenton cop charged in attempted hit on informant has deep criminal ties," by The Trentonian's Isaac Avilucea: "City cop Rudy Lopez has deep ties to the criminal underworld. And some of those were exposed Monday, when authorities announced that the 36-year-old Trenton police officer was suspended without pay after plotting a retaliatory strike with his cousin inmate against a suspected informant. He's also accused of lying about ties to a notorious street gang that carried out an infamous killing of one of their own more than a decade ago in Trenton. Lopez, who joined the force in September 2020, was charged with official misconduct, conspiracy and tampering with records following an investigation by state prosecutors from the Office of Public Integrity and Accountability. He faces up to 10 years in prison and a $150,000 fine if convicted of the most serious offenses."

PISSEDCATAWAY — "Judges side with Piscataway progressives in ballot question case," by New Jersey Monitor's Nikita Biryukov: "An appellate panel ordered a trial court to award attorney's fees to residents whose ballot initiatives the Piscataway Township Council tried to undercut. The three-judge panel on Tuesday affirmed a lower court ruling that found the Township Council acted improperly when it placed two nonbinding and nearly identical ballot questions alongside binding referendums placed on the ballot by resident petitions. The petitioners charged the council's action was an attempt to undermine the binding referendums. 'This decision is a victory for democracy here in Piscataway and across the state, as it preserves the right of voters to enact laws when elected officials won't,' said Staci Berger, one of the plaintiffs."

NOT QUITE HANDING POLITICIANS $275,000 JOBS TO BOOST THEIR PENSIONS, BUT IT'S BETTER THAN NOTHING — "Camden County is offering $1,000 pandemic relief payments to caregivers," by The Philadelphia Inquirer's Robert Moran: "Camden County on Tuesday announced that eligible caregivers can receive $1,000 in pandemic relief from more than $1 million in available funds. To be eligible, caregivers need to be employed providing direct personal care to the elderly, children, or adults with disabilities, officials said. Furthermore, they need to either live in Camden County or provide care to a county resident, and have had their wages impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic."

TIME FOR SOME LABOR PROBLEMS IN FORT LEE — " Workers at Fort Lee complex that houses 2K people go on strike over contract negotiations," by The Record's Kristie Cattafi: "Fort Lee's Horizon House door attendants, porters, mechanics and valets went on strike Wednesday morning after months of stalled negotiation talks. The 82 employees, who are members of the Service Employees International Union, Local 32BJ, moved to strike after seven failed bargaining sessions with the Horizon House board since their contract expired in May. The board has made 'ridiculous proposals,' said Maria Lanao, communications specialists with 32BJ SEIU, including a proposal that would offer a 70 cent raise, distributed over four years and contributing $2,400 of their own money into their health insurance plan."

—"Morris County GOP Declines debates hosted by the league of women voters"

—" Bound Brook mayor resigning september 2, one day after departure would have triggered special election"

—"Court awards Atlantic County another $176,000 in PILOT litigation "

R.I.P. — "Susan Zellman, former Sussex freeholder, dies at 79"

—" School is starting nearly 2 weeks before Labor Day in some N.J. districts. Here's why"

—"Wall schools wrongly redacted public records, judge rules "

—"Controversial to some, NJ's new sex ed curriculum up for vote by Jersey City school board"

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EVERYTHING ELSE

YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED TO THROW BOG TURTLE SHELLS AT EACH OTHER — "'World's largest' go-kart track set to open in N.J. this fall," by NJ Advance Media's Anthony G. Attrino: "A massive racetrack touted as the 'world's largest' go-kart racing course is set to open in New Jersey this fall, officials announced. Supercharged Entertainment, which runs a large go-kart arena in Wrentham, Massachusetts, plans to open the multi-level track in New Jersey this fall that they hope will become a vacation destination for travelers arriving to airports in Newark and New York, a company official told NJ Advance Media … The complex is slated to open in November on Route 1 South in Edison next to Topgolf Edison, the company said in a statement."

—"See 9 NJ towns where corporations are buying up homes at an astonishing rate"

—" Water quality at N.J. beaches has been remarkably good this year, data shows"

—"Horrors and anxieties of the war in Ukraine come home to a New Jersey suburb "

—"[Cape May County Zoo] welcomes fuzzy baby bison"

A message from NextEra Energy Transmission:

NextEra Energy didn't become the world's largest generator of wind and solar power overnight. We've been building and operating large-scale energy projects across North America for decades and powering New Jersey for nearly a quarter-century. Our first solar farm in the Garden State was built in West Deptford. Yet, our contributions have gone far deeper—from counseling local businesses on how to reach clean energy goals and operating battery storage facilities to providing dozens of solar sites on buildings from Cape May to High Point and working to help New Jersey reach its offshore wind goals. We know how to get big, complex projects done on time and on budget. We power homes, neighborhoods, and entire cities, all while putting customers first, prioritizing the environment, and working with local communities to create jobs and limit disruptions. NextEra Energy Transmission is committed to empowering a greener New Jersey.