| | | | |  | | By Myah Ward | FROM WAVE TO RIPPLE — You've been hearing the rumbling for weeks: Maybe things won't be so bad for Democrats in November after all. Media talking heads and Democrats have been pushing the mild-midterm narrative for weeks, amid an accumulation of signs suggesting an improving election environment for the party — among them, the Kansas abortion vote, Democrats' legislative wins, promising performances in special elections in Minnesota and Nebraska, stumbles by GOP Senate candidates and voter registration gains among women. The murmurs grew louder this week after Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro in a special election for a swing seat in New York's Hudson Valley.
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Democratic candidate Pat Ryan and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul appear on stage together during a campaign rally for Ryan, Monday, Aug. 22, 2022, in Kingston, N.Y. | Mary Altaffer/AP Photo | Now, the chatter is going one step beyond: The nonpartisan election forecasters who watch these House and Senate races closer than anyone else are sounding notes that the "red wave looks more like a red ripple." Respected outfits including The Cook Political Report, the University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball and smart upstart analysts like Split Ticket are beginning to revisit their initial race ratings and adjust them in light of recent developments. ( POLITICO has its own election forecast and will be releasing new ratings next month.) In tweaking their individual race ratings and projections, these groups look at evidence such as the president's approval rating and the generic ballot, but also metrics of voter enthusiasm like the special election in New York this week, Cook's U.S. House editor Dave Wasserman told Nightly. "Just a few months ago, it looked like a Category 5 hurricane for Democrats," Wasserman said. "Now it looks more like a tropical storm or depression." If you had looked at Cook's projections just a few months ago, the forecasters would've "put the odds that Republicans would flip the Senate at more than 60 percent, with a gain of as many as four seats possible." Now, Cook rates the Senate as a toss-up, "with the range between Dems picking up one seat, and Republicans gaining three." Split Ticket also updated its Senate ratings this week, writing that "Democrats may very well be favored to retain their majority in the chamber come January of 2023." In the last two weeks, Crystal Ball forecasters have upgraded Democratic prospects in two Senate races. As for the House, no one is projecting Democrats will hold onto power, but it's no longer seen as a possible blowout of historic proportions. The Cook Political Report updated its House outlook this week to a 10- to 20-seat Republican gain. In May, this figure was a gain of 20 to 35 seats. Harrison Lavelle, a partner at Split Ticket who focuses on House races, is set to release his own report next week. In his view, the lower chamber has shifted from "safe Republican" to a "leans or likely" Republican. And this shift — to an expectation of a smaller GOP majority — matters for Democratic power in the lower chamber. "That's really what the Democrats I think are going to look forward to because if they can limit the [size of the] eventual Republican majority, that's going to limit the amount of power that Kevin McCarthy would wield over his caucus as speaker, and ultimately, I think it would reduce the effectiveness of the Republican's House majority in terms of being an obstacle to the Biden administration's agenda in the second half of his first term," Lavelle said. While things are looking up for Democrats now, it's worth noting that the outlook could change again. The political environment is volatile, Wasserman said. Just on Wednesday, President Joe Biden announced loan forgiveness for 43 million Americans, and there's no telling how this might play among voters in both parties. Harrison sees two paths the cycle could take: On one hand, Democrats could continue to gain momentum, possibly shifting the midterm environment from "neutral" to "favor Democrats." Alternatively, he said, Republican turnout in November could meet the Democratic enthusiasm we've seen in the special elections. "Historically, the out party has tended to see an improvement on the generic ballot between August and the November elections, but because of Dobbs, that could make this year an anomaly," Lavelle said. "We're really living through this, and we're going to have to see whether or not this year sticks with history or makes its own path." Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight's author at mward@politico.com or on Twitter @MyahWard. Programming note: POLITICO Nightly won't publish from Monday, Aug. 29, through Monday, Sept. 5. We'll be back in your inboxes on Tuesday, Sept. 6.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | — Mark Meadows ordered to testify in Fulton County probe: The Atlanta-area grand jury investigating former President Donald Trump's effort to overturn the 2020 election is demanding testimony from Trump's former chief of staff about his involvement. Meadows was an active participant in Trump's effort to press state officials in Georgia to help "find" enough votes to put Trump ahead of Biden in the state. Meadows traveled to Georgia for an unannounced visit during recount efforts there, and he joined Trump on a phone call with Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger during which Trump pressed the state officials to help reverse the outcome. — Trump-tied attorney who helped craft fake electors strategy resists grand jury subpoena: Kenneth Chesebro, who helped develop Trump's last-ditch strategy to subvert the 2020 election, moved today to block a subpoena for his testimony to an Atlanta-area grand jury investigating potential crimes connected to the effort. Chesebro contended that he had an attorney-client relationship with the Trump campaign, which prevented him from appearing for an Aug. 30 interview. While Trump has had a number of formal and semi-formal lawyers working on his behalf at various times, it's unclear if Chesebro ever served in an official capacity. — Arkansas can't ban treatment of transgender kids, court says: A three-judge panel of the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals today said the state can't enforce its ban on transgender children receiving gender-affirming medical care, upholding a judge's ruling temporarily blocking the state from enforcing the 2021 law. Arkansas was the first state to enact such a ban, which prohibits doctors from providing gender-confirming hormone treatment, puberty blockers or surgery to anyone under 18 years old, or from referring them to other providers for the treatment. A trial is scheduled for October before the same judge on whether to permanently block the law. — Two plead guilty to trafficking Ashley Biden's diary, property: Two Florida residents pleaded guilty today to conspiring to traffic in stolen goods for selling a diary and other personal effects of Biden's daughter, the Justice Department said. The criminal charges are the first to emerge from a federal investigation into how, prior to the 2020 presidential election, the journal reached the conservative video outlet Project Veritas. The group has said it paid for rights to publish the diary, but never did so because it couldn't authenticate it. Contents from the diary later emerged on a more obscure conservative site.
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French President Emmanuel Macron shakes hands with Algerian President Abdelmajid Tebboune before their talks today in Algiers. | Anis Belghoul/AP Photo | PAINFUL HISTORY — French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Algeria today — his first visit to the former colony in five years — aiming to improve tense relations with the gas-rich nation as the EU wrestles to diversify energy supplies away from Russia, writes Clea Caulcutt. Issues like security, economic ties and energy rank high on the French president's agenda, but it's what he has to say about the country's colonial past that will likely draw the most attention. The Mediterranean nation was part of the French colonial empire for well over a century until it gained independence in 1962 following a war that took a massive human toll and was characterized by savage brutality — leaving a lasting mark on French politics and society. Franco-Algerian relations hit rock bottom last year after Algeria withdrew its ambassador, though the two nations have made some headway in reestablishing ties since. Much is at stake for the French president during his three-day visit as France aims to not only normalize bilateral relations with Algeria, but also salvage its sphere of influence in Africa as Russia and China seek to strengthen alliances across the continent.
| | | | | 4 The number of abortion trigger laws that went into effect this week — in Idaho, North Dakota, Tennessee and Texas. While three of those states had significant restrictions on the procedure already in place, the new laws carry narrower exemptions and harsher criminal penalties. As of today, abortion is prohibited starting at conception, with limited exceptions, in a dozen states across the U.S. | | | | | | 
Former President Donald Trump watches a game at his Bedminster, N.J., golf club. | Seth Wenig/AP Photo | KEEP CALM AND GOLF ON — As he finds himself, once more, in legal jeopardy — standing at the epicenter of a media storm of his own making, his political future changing course in real time — Donald Trump has done what Donald Trump likes to do, write Meridith McGraw and Daniel Lippman. He's played golf, engaged in a bit of politicking and mingled with friends and guests at his Bedminster golf club. The stakes may be high for the ex-president, but Trump is carrying on with his usual summer calendar. GOP officials, aides and media personalities who have spoken to him say Trump is frustrated but "cheerful." He has looked for help to bolster his legal team but found no takers. At the same time, he has reveled in seeing parades of MAGA supporters in front of his properties, as well as Fox News pundits and Republican members of Congress largely rushing to his defense. He also has been buoyed by the belief that the FBI's search of his home will benefit him politically. One thing Trump hasn't done much of since the FBI search is appear in public. While aides and family members have hit the television circuit, Trump has not. He gave one brief interview to Fox News digital and his first public appearance since the search isn't until early September, when he holds a rally in Scranton, Pa. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.
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