News : POLITICO Florida Playbook: How the DeSantis campaign machine is ready for November

Thursday, August 18, 2022

POLITICO Florida Playbook: How the DeSantis campaign machine is ready for November

Aug 18, 2022

Hello and welcome to Thursday.

After the votes are counted — The Aug. 23 primary is still a few days away, but there are already signs of what's in store for whichever Democratic candidate for governor manages to prevail.

Breaking it down — Gov. Ron DeSantis and his allies – namely the Republican Party of Florida – have basically kept pace on television ads even as the focus has been on Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried and Rep. Charlie Crist. An analysis done by AdImpact shows that out of the more than $13.2 million spent so far on the governor's race, nearly $5.6 million has gone to boosting DeSantis.

Contrast — By comparison, Fried has spent about $2.4 million, while Crist has dropped about $4.91 million for ads that have been a mix of the upbeat positive messaging and jabs at DeSantis. The two rivals have also taken sharp shots at each other over who's better on abortion rights and a truer Democrat.

Lots of ads — While this has been going on, the DeSantis campaign has kept the focus squarely on the governor by stressing his Covid-19 anti-lockdown policies. And on Wednesday, the campaign showed the firepower to come by rolling out 11 different ads it plans to air – many of them first person testimonials praising DeSantis – as well as one that stresses DeSantis' education policies. The education ad – which contends he is "putting students first, protecting parents rights" – started airing on Thursday morning.

Holding back — So far, the governor's re-election campaign has not booked a lot of broadcast or cable time after August but the campaign is still sitting on more than $130 million in the bank, so that could change quickly.

The message — Most of what the governor's re-election campaign has rolled out so far has been about reinforcing DeSantis's record and not criticizing his potential Democratic opponents. One ad released Wednesday does have images of President Joe Biden and it talks about DeSantis "fighting back" against attacks. Despite overwhelmingly superior resources, there's been no real effort by DeSantis or Republicans to wade into the Democratic primary.

Let's be clear — All indications are that the DeSantis campaign doesn't really care about which candidate emerges next Tuesday. But Fried theoretically poses a bit more of a challenge because she provides more of a contrast, not the least of which is that her position on abortion rights have been more consistent than Crist's. Fried could also provoke DeSantis more than Crist. (If you want proof of that, just look at the governor's decision to schedule a Cabinet meeting on the day of the primary to force Fried to start her day in Tallahassee.)

The pitch — Another argument made by Fried and her supporters is that the playbook to defeat Crist has already been written, and that's why she would be a better nominee. The rebuttal, of course, is that she failed to unify the party around her over the last year on the campaign trail. If she somehow scores an upset next week, she will come out of the primary with very little left in the bank although she contended this week she would be able to reload quickly. Still, whomever emerges will be at a serious disadvantage.

— WHERE'S RON? — Nothing official announced for Gov. DeSantis.

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CAMPAIGN MODE

OVERVIEW — "Democrats face first test in bid to defeat DeSantis," by Washington Post's Tim Craig: "But some are worried that [Rep. Charlie] Crist's shift from Republican to Democrat years ago could make him highly vulnerable to attacks from [Gov. Ron] DeSantis — and that the disaffected Republican voters Democrats are hoping to win over would ultimately be more drawn to [Agriculture Commissioner Nikki] Fried. In recent days, polls have shown that the gap between Crist and Fried is starting to narrow. 'To the extent those Republicans even exist, they tend to be college-educated women, and I think Nikki Fried may have more appeal with them,' said Brad Coker, director of Florida-based Mason Dixon Polling & Strategy. 'There are not any White male Republican voters who are going to vote for Crist over DeSantis — these voters don't exist.'"

Nikki Fried attends a protest.

Florida Agricultural Commissioner Nikki Fried joins with people to protest the Supreme Court's decision in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health case on June 24, 2022, in Miami. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images

'VERY UGLY PLACE' — "'Spews that lie over and over again': Is there anything positive in showdown between Book and Sharief?" by South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Anthony Man: "As Lauren Book and Barbara Sharief compete ferociously for a seat in the Florida Senate, there's little, if anything, that's forward-thinking or positive in Broward's hottest political contest of the summer. Book and Sharief, along with their allies, have been shredding each other for months as each seeks votes — and tries to tamp down support for the opposition — in new state Senate District 35, which is mostly south and west of Florida's Turnpike. 'We have gotten to a very ugly place in this race,' Book acknowledged during an interview with the South Florida Sun Sentinel Editorial Board."

ROUND 4 — Gov. Ron DeSantis and other candidates running for statewide office got their fourth batch of taxpayer money last week, according to information posted Wednesday by the state Division of Elections. DeSantis received a payment of more than $148,000 in public matching funds, bringing his total this election season to roughly $4.5 million. Rep. Charlie Crist pulled in nearly $35,000 while Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried received more than $29,000. Crist has now taken in more than $1.4 million in public money overall while Fried has gotten nearly $809,000.

The rest — Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis received $8,620 in taxpayer money, bringing his overall total to nearly $176,000. Daniel Uhlfelder , a Democrat running for attorney general, got a payment of more than $9,200 to bring his total to nearly $139,000. Attorney General Ashley Moody received $3,310 last week and now has gotten more than $243,000 in state matching funds. Under Florida's program, statewide candidates running for governor and Cabinet posts receive money based on how much is donated by state residents. Candidates do not receive matching funds for donations from corporations and out-of-state residents.

— Florida police investigating incident between GOP tracker and Demings security team, by POLITICO's Gary Fineout

— " Matt Gaetz's Republican primary opponent suggests he is the possible FBI Mar-a-Lago informant in new attack ad," by Insider's Natalie Musumeci

— "Charlie Crist 'confident but not complacent' as he campaigns across Broward days before governor primary ," by South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Anthony Man

— "'No holds barred': Negative campaign season in Tallahassee gets uglier as Election Day nears," by Tallahassee Democrat's Jeff Burlew

— "Donald Trump endorses second candidate in Miami-Dade County Commission races," by Miami Herald's Douglas Hanks

... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...

TO COURT — 'Blatant abuse of power': Ousted Florida prosecutor sues DeSantis over suspension, by POLITICO's Matt Dixon: [Andrew] Warren's lawsuit, filed in the U.S. District Court Northern District of Florida, alleges that DeSantis violated his First Amendment rights by suspending him for signing a pledge to not prosecute women for seeking abortions and his public statements opposing the criminalization of transgender people. He is asking the court to throw out DeSantis' executive order used to suspended him and to rule governors are not allowed to take similar actions moving forward.

AND ANOTHER LAWSUIT — Groups to sue Florida Medicaid program over ban on gender affirming care, by POLITICO's Arek Sarkissian: A coalition of transgender-rights organizations is preparing to sue Florida to stop the state's Medicaid regulator from banning coverage of gender-affirming treatments. Simone Chriss, director of the Southern Legal Counsel's Transgender Rights Initiative, said on Wednesday that the coalition is expecting to file the case in federal court and will seek a preliminary injunction to halt the ban from going forward. "We are trying to get this filed as quickly as we possibly can," Chriss said.

UP NEXT — Florida Department of Education takes aim at LGBTQ student support guides, by POLITICO's Andrew Atterbury: Florida's top education official on Wednesday pledged that his agency would review scores of local LGBTQ student support guides, a move that ramps up the state's enforcement of the new "Parental Rights in Education" law targeting lessons on sexual orientation and gender identity. The informal action taken by Education Commissioner Manny Diaz Jr. came as the state Board of Education approved two rules tied to the recently-enacted legislation that scored national interest after being branded by critics and LGBTQ advocates as the "Don't Say Gay" bill.

Suggestion — Diaz's move on Wednesday was spurred by board member Ryan Petty raising "grave concerns" about the guides potentially recommending that schools should avoid sharing information regarding students' sexual orientation to their parents, an issue that was key in shaping the controversial law.

TRANSITIONS — Leo Schoonover is now deputy state chief information security officer for network, operations, intelligence and response at the Florida Digital Service. He most recently was cyberspace operations liaison at Deloitte.

— "As Biden signs Inflation Reduction Act, Florida CFO takes aim at IRS funding ," by USA Today Network-Florida's Douglas Soule

TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP

SPEAKING OUT — "Pence tells GOP to stop lashing out at FBI over Trump search," by Associated Press Holly Ramer: "Former Vice President Mike Pence on Wednesday implored fellow Republicans to stop lashing out at the FBI over the search of Donald Trump's Florida home and denounced calls by some of the former president's allies to defund the FBI, saying that was 'just as wrong' as a push by Democratic activists to shift money from police. Pence also said he would give 'due consideration' if asked to testify before the House committee investigating the riot at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021."

Mike Pence gestures.

Former Vice President Mike Pence gestures during the "Politics and Eggs" breakfast gathering. | Charles Krupa/AP Photo

THE MONEY GO-ROUND — "Trump rakes in millions off FBI search at Mar-a-Lago," by Washington Post's Josh Dawsey and Isaac Arnsdorf: "Former president Donald Trump bombarded his supporters with more than 100 emails asking for money based on the FBI's search of the Mar-a-Lago Club for classified materials last week. They paid off. Contributions to Trump's political action committee topped $1 million on at least two days after the Aug. 8 search of his Palm Beach, Fla., estate, according to two people familiar with the figures. The daily hauls jumped from a level of $200,000 to $300,000 that had been typical in recent months, according to the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss nonpublic information."

REWIND — "Trump considering releasing surveillance footage of FBI Mar-a-Lago search," by CNN's Gabby Orr, Sara Murray, Kaitlan Collins and Katelyn Polantz: "Some allies of former President Donald Trump are urging him to publicly release surveillance footage of FBI agents executing a search warrant on his Mar-a-Lago residence, a proposal that has drawn mixed reaction inside his orbit, CNN has learned. The CCTV footage has been so closely held that aides to the former President aren't sure if he has seen it in full himself, said a person close to Trump. 'I don't think it's been shared by anyone outside of the attorneys,' this person said. Yet when asked earlier this week by Fox's Sean Hannity whether the footage would be released, Trump's son Eric said, 'Absolutely Sean, at the right time.'

— "Nine days after Mar-a-Lago search, FBI agents are still sifting through Trump documents," by NBC News' Ken Dilanian, Michael Kosnar and Zoë Richards

— " Media lawyers: Revealing affidavit related to Mar-a-Lago search would curb speculation," by Palm Beach Post's Jane Musgrave

— " Trump Org. CFO to plead guilty, testify against company," by Associated Press' Michael R. Sisak

— "Increased anti-Semitic rhetoric targeted toward Palm Beach judge magistrate in Trump case ," by Palm Beach Post's Stephany Matat

DATELINE D.C.

SO IT'S NOT JOBS, JOBS, JOBS — "Republicans escalate IRS rhetoric as senator warns Americans not to apply for new jobs," by NBC News' Sahil Kapur: "It is unusual for a U.S. senator to publicly warn Americans not to apply for a job and threaten to eliminate it. But that's what Senate Republican campaign chair Rick Scott, R-Fla., did this week, publishing an open letter encouraging job seekers not to pursue new IRS positions, vowing that Republicans, who hope to take control of Congress next year, will quickly 'defund' those jobs. Scott claimed the Biden administration will use the Democrats' newly enacted Inflation Reduction Act to create 'an IRS super-police force' to 'audit and investigate' ordinary Americans."

PENINSULA AND BEYOND

LUNAR LURE — "NASA's big gamble: Is new rocket too costly to launch us back to the moon?" by Florida Today's Jamie Groh: "When NASA's big bet to get astronauts back to the moon this decade launches at the end of this month, it will dethrone the Saturn V as the most powerful rocket ever to rumble American soil. The Space Launch System rocket is more powerful than an Apollo-era Saturn V rocket and will power the agency's Artemis program, NASA's effort to deliver the first woman and the first person of color to the lunar surface. But SLS stands at risk of going down as one of the biggest boondoggles in spaceflight history if NASA can't find a way to control costs."

LEAVING — "2020 census overcounted people in Puerto Rico, hinting at larger population loss," by NBC News' Nicole Acevedo: "The population of Puerto Rico was overcounted by 5.7%, or 174,000 people, when the Census Bureau conducted its 2020 count. The overcount came to light Tuesday after the bureau announced it concluded a post-enumeration survey used to measure the accuracy of the census by independently surveying a sample of the population on the island. The effort is being used to inform improvements on the 2030 census. On April 2021, the Census Bureau announced Puerto Rico's population fell 11.8% to nearly 3.3 million over the past decade. But the latest post-enumeration survey suggests that Puerto Rico's total population may be closer to 3.1 million."

— "'Surrounded by loved ones,' Miami-Dade detective dies two days after shooting," by Miami Herald's Charles Rabin and David Ovalle

— " On the day Tyre Sampson would have turned 15, family gathers at site of his deadly fall," by Orlando Sentinel's Abigail Haselbroock

— " School shooter's attorneys drop contentious brain exam," by Associated Press' Terry Spencer

— "Palm Beach County School Board lambasted for designating day off for Muslim holiday ," by Palm Beach Post's Katherine Kokal

— "Broward recruits teachers from Philippines to address staff shortage," by South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Shira Moolten

ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN

— "Pensacola Police Chief Eric Randall unveils new badge that removes Confederate flag," by Pensacola News Journal's Jim Little: "Pensacola Police Department Chief Eric Randall has unveiled new designs that remove the Confederate flag from police badges and uniform patches. Randall revealed the planned changes Monday while speaking to the City Council. The Confederate flag, along with other countries' flags, are removed in the new badge design and replaced with the American flag and the Florida state flag. The new patch removes all of the flags and replaces them with a version of the city seal."

BIRTHDAYS: Former Florida Democratic Party chairman Bob Poe

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