Thursday, August 18, 2022

How cable TV pundits misread Trump’s legal troubles

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Aug 18, 2022 View in browser
 
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By Ankush Khardori

FALL GUY — Donald Trump has seen some of his advisers wind up as convicted criminals , but none were as close to him for as long as Allen Weisselberg, the former chief financial officer for the Trump Organization who pleaded guilty today to criminal tax fraud.

Weisselberg's plea comes at an especially inopportune time as Trump faces new questions over the legality of his own conduct in the wake of the FBI search last week of his Mar-a-Lago home. But it also serves as yet another cautionary tale about the sort of overheated prognostications of Trump's legal demise that the Mar-a-Lago search has yet again prompted among political and legal observers.

Weisselberg admitted to engaging in a yearslong scheme to avoid paying taxes on compensation and benefits that he received from the Trump Organization. The Manhattan district attorney charged Weisselberg last summer along with the Trump Organization, but early this year, the newly elected DA reportedly refused to approve charges against Trump himself.

Weisselberg's plea does not resolve the case against the company, but it considerably narrows the avenues available to Trump's namesake company to avoid a conviction based on Weisselberg's conduct. He is expected to serve a five-month sentence, provided that he testifies at trial against the Trump Organization (though like Weisselberg, the company could also plead guilty to the charges).

The development is plainly bad news for Trump and his namesake company, but it is not nearly as bad as many anti-Trump legal pundits predicted — including many of the same people who are now opining on what the result of the Mar-a-Lago search will be and how bad it looks for Trump. One former U.S. attorney who regularly appears on cable news claimed early last year that it " would be easy " for the Manhattan DA's office to charge Trump with criminal fraud and that it was " almost certain " that Trump himself would be indicted.

A video of someone explaining Trump's legal troubles.

Another U.S. attorney and cable news regular ventured that an "initial indictment against the Trump Organization may be only the opening salvo in a barrage of charges, naming executives, Trump family members, or even Trump himself." Still another well-known pundit said immediately after the Weisselberg indictment that the DA's office was " on the precipice . They are on the brink of a much larger case against Trump and his businesses."

Thus far, no one but Weisselberg has been charged in the DA's probe, and more than a year later, there is no public indication that the office will bring a broader case against Trump or his businesses anytime soon.

One reason that these sorts of predictions are so common is that there is little downside to being wrong as a legal commentator if you vocally denounce Trump — a reliable path to cable news bookings and ancillary financial and reputational benefits.

For instance, Dan Goldman, an attorney for Democrats during the first Trump impeachment, predicted that the indictment of the Trump Organization would be "devastating" and that "any charge" would "doom" the company by forcing it into bankruptcy. That has not remotely happened, but Goldman's star may be on the rise. The former prosecutor, who used to bemoan pressure from politicians to charge Trump, is running in next week's Democratic primary in New York's 10th Congressional District, and hiscorecampaign message has been that Trump should be prosecuted. Last week, The New York Times endorsed him in a controversial editorial.

On Wednesday, Trump sarcastically endorsed Goldman, who quickly tweeted in response, " I'm coming for you, Donald." The tweet has more than 45,000 likes. As of today, Goldman appears to be in the lead.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight's author at ankush.khardori@gmail.com.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
What'd I Miss?

A photo of Salman Rushdie.

Author Salman Rushdie in 2017. | Hannelore Foerster/Getty Images

— Rushdie's attacker indicted, expected to appear in court: A grand jury has indicted the man who stabbed Salman Rushdie as the acclaimed author prepared to give a talk in western New York, county prosecutors said today. Hadi Matar, 24, of Fairview, N.J., is scheduled to appear on the charges at an afternoon court hearing in Chautauqua County. Matar was arrested Aug. 12 after he rushed the stage at the Chautauqua Institution, stabbing Rushdie multiple times in front of a horrified crowd.

— Trump Mar-a-Lago investigation still in 'early stages,' top DOJ official reveals: A top Justice Department official said today the investigation into the handling of classified records housed at Trump's private residence is "in its early stages," suggesting a long road ahead for the explosive probe. "This investigation is open," said Jay Bratt, the head of the Justice Department's counterintelligence division.

— Mitch McConnell gives a midterm forecast: The Senate minority leader sought to temper expectations for his party's performance in the midterms during a stop at the Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce in Florence, Ky., today, calling a House change of control more likely than in the Senate. "Senate races are just different. They're statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome," McConnell said.

— CNN cancels 'Reliable Sources,' host Stelter will leave network: Brian Stelter will depart CNN as the network cancels his long-running talk show "Reliable Sources" . The decision to end Stelter's show, according to the Associated Press, appears to be the first major act in new network chair Chris Licht's attempt to make the network less politically controversial. Stelter has hosted 'Reliable Sources' for nine years. The final episode of the show, which first aired three decades ago, will be on Sunday.

— Federal judge temporarily blocks DeSantis' 'Stop-WOKE' law: A federal judge today blocked Florida from enforcing a key aspect of the state's new law restricting what Gov. Ron DeSantis calls "woke" workplace trainings about race. In the decision, Chief U.S. District Judge Mark Walker slammed the law, criticizing its policies as "bordering on unintelligible" as he granted a temporary injunction on the grounds the law violates the First Amendment. The ruling was heralded as a "major victory for free speech" by the group of businesses who sued the state, but that win could be short lived with the DeSantis administration sure to appeal.

 

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AROUND THE WORLD

CHINA ACCUSED OF ENSLAVEMENTForced labor has taken place in the Xinjiang region of China, the U.N.'s top expert on slavery concluded in a new report that has riled Beijing, writes Ali Walker.

It is "reasonable to conclude that forced labour among Uyghur, Kazakh and other ethnic minorities in sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing" took place in the western region, where China has been accused of human rights abuses against the Uyghur Muslim minority, and a "genocide" by the U.S.

In stinging remarks, U.N. Special Rapporteur on Contemporary Forms of Slavery Tomoya Obokata added that some aspects of China's Xinjiang policy could even amount to "enslavement as a crime against humanity."

Beijing blasted the U.N.'s slavery expert after the report was published. "A certain special rapporteur chooses to believe in lies and disinformation about Xinjiang spread by the U.S. and some other Western countries and anti-China forces," a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said.

Nightly Number

20 percent

The percent drop in the number of registered Democratic voters in Wyoming, owing in part to Democrats switching parties in an unsuccessful attempt to help GOP Rep. Liz Cheney win her primary on Tuesday. The share of registered Republican voters in the state rose by 10 percent.

Parting Words

A photo of Theresa May dancing.

Former British Prime Minister Theresa May dances as she walks on stage in 2018. | Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

DANCING WITH THE STARS — Not all politicians can bust a move like Finland's Prime Minister Sanna Marin, write Luanna Muniz and Camille Gijs.

The 36-year-old leader came under fire today after videos were leaked of her dancing exuberantly with several famous Finnish faces.

Over the years, heads of state and government have used conferences, official international trips, campaign trails and sometimes no reason at all to showcase their dancing ability — or lack of it.

POLITICO's jury ranked political leaders' dance moves, from the best to the most awkward. Read a full report — from Donald Trump to Theresa May to Boris Yeltsin, complete with videos.

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