| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
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Across the board, Donald Trump's hand-picked candidates appear to be struggling. | Matt Rourke/AP Photo | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | Twelve weeks before the midterm elections, Republicans' hopes of retaking the Senate rest on a slate of Donald Trump's hand-picked nominees. And, across the board, they appear to be struggling. In Pennsylvania, a ferocious Democratic campaign to paint MEHMET OZ as an out-of-touch carpetbagger has left him trailing in multiple polls. HERSCHEL WALKER may be a Georgia Bulldogs legend, but key voters appear to be doubting him after a series of gaffes and abuse allegations. The backing of Silicon Valley titan PETER THIEL hasn't yet been enough to sell BLAKE MASTERS' sharp-edged conservatism to Arizona voters. And in an eyebrow-raising new survey, the respected Marquette University Law School poll finds incumbent Sen. RON JOHNSON (R-Wis.) trailing his Democratic opponent MANDELA BARNES by 7 points. Yes, it's still early. Yes, Democrats have been on a bit of a winning streak lately. And, yes, plenty is going to change before Nov. 8. But with only one competitive state (New Hampshire) yet to select its Senate nominee, the picture is clear: Democrats across the country are finding ways to run ahead — sometimes well ahead — of JOE BIDEN's approval ratings. Candidates like Barnes, JOHN FETTERMAN , RAPHAEL WARNOCK, MARK KELLY and others are being buoyed by an improving political environment for Democrats. Since May, Democrats have held a consistent generic-ballot advantage in the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, with our latest survey pegging a four-point lead.
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| By historical standards, that may not be enough of an advantage for Democrats to keep the House. But it could be enough of a tailwind to propel at least some Democratic Senate candidates to victory against flawed competition. "Senate campaigns are candidate-versus-candidate battles," said the DSCC's DAVID BERGSTEIN . "And right now, the Republican roster of recruits, it's looking like a bunch of rotten crudités." The key unanswered question GOP strategists are pondering right now: Is this year more like 2012, when the party lost at least two winnable seats thanks to extremist candidates TODD AKIN and RICHARD MOURDOCK , or 2014, when it rode moderate nominees CORY GARDNER and JONI ERNST to the majority? No one has been more focused on that question than MITCH McCONNELL, who told our colleague Burgess Everett back in February that, "The only thing I care about is electability." But with the field now almost set, Trump's heavy hand has undoubtedly complicated matters for McConnell and his deep-pocketed allies. As Republican pollster Whit Ayres told WaPo's Hannah Knowles, Josh Dawsey and David Weigel: "Having amateur candidates who've never run for office before carrying the banner for the Republican Party in critical Senate races is a risky maneuver. The list is quite lengthy of Senate seats lost by weak Republican candidates, even in good Republican years." Trump has largely had free rein during primary season. The NRSC, which has put its thumb on the scale for favored nominees in the past, did not do so this cycle, to the chagrin of many Republicans. Chair RICK SCOTT adopted a stay-out-of-it approach, with his defenders arguing that primary meddling wastes time and money and backfires as often as it works. An NRSC aide told POLITICO last night the criticism is "mostly driven by people that just don't like Rick Scott" and expressed comfort with the candidates that voters (and Trump) have picked. The Trump factor also contributed to Republicans' recruitment woes, with three popular GOP governors telling McConnell and Scott thanks but no thanks. Arizona's DOUG DUCEY and Maryland's LARRY HOGAN passed, as did New Hampshire's CHRIS SUNUNU. Instead, according to a new Saint Anselm College poll, Granite State Republicans appear poised to nominate DON BOLDUC — "the GOP candidate whom Republicans believe is the weakest of the bunch," according to the Examiner's DAVID DRUCKER. For his part, Scott said in a Florida radio interview Wednesday that "as long as we raise our money, we will win in November" — a notable caveat days after the NRSC rejiggered more than $13 million of ad spending.
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Learn more about our work ahead. | | | A state-by-state breakdown of key battlegrounds, however, paints a more worrisome picture for the GOP: — In a super PAC ad airing this week, Georgia voters are hearing soundbites of Walker's ex-wife recalling how he once held a gun to her head. A gridiron legend whose friendship with Trump sealed his nomination, Walker's string of gaffes has him running consistently behind Warnock — and, crucially, GOP Gov. BRIAN KEMP. — Multiple polls show Oz, celebrity doctor and raw-food aficionado , trailing Fetterman by double digits in Pennsylvania. So far, his attempts to turn the tables on Fetterman's incessant social media trolling have fallen flat — such as last night, when Oz tried to highlight his opponent's trust fund past but ended up in a public discussion of his own extensive property holdings. — In red-tinged Ohio, relatively scarce polling has J.D. VANCE running neck-and-neck with Democratic Rep. TIM RYAN. A run of negative stories has cast doubt on the Vance campaign's acumen, and the former venture capitalist has been badly outraised — leaving him dependent on assistance from outside groups as Ryan hammers his past life as financier. — Arizona's Kelly was once seen as one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents but polls, including a recent GOP internal, suggest he's pulled away from Masters. Complicating any comeback is Masters' hardline nationalist agenda and past comments suggesting he favors privatizing Social Security and imposing an nationwide abortion ban — statements that Democrats are putting on the airwaves starting this week. — Wisconsinites have twice embraced Johnson's brand as a straight-shooting Washington outsider, but it has been supplanted of late by his identity as a Trump loyalist and Covid skeptic. As NBC's Natasha Korecki writes in a deep dive on the senator's attempt at rehabilitation, "Johnson's ability to reintroduce himself in a more positive light — his favorability has been on a steady decline since 2019 among voters here — is key to Republicans' strategy." Republicans are playing down the rough public polling, pointing to the traditional ebb-and-flow of an election year. Meanwhile, the NRSC and super PACs led by the Senate Leadership Fund are preparing to unleash hundreds of millions of dollars of ad spending driving a simple message — that Democrats have used their power to make Americans' lives worse. Oh, and that Wisconsin poll? Six years ago, the same Marquette Law poll had Johnson 11 points behind RUSS FEINGOLD in early August. After three of the most tumultuous months in modern American political history, Johnson won by just over three points. Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
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Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rep. Charlie Crist hugs Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz as they attend a campaign event on Wednesday, August 17, in Pembroke Pines, Fla. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | MAR-A-LAGO FALLOUT FROM 30,000 FEET — A rising tide of threats against Magistrate Judge BRUCE REINHART has experts warning about a dangerous situation for the rule of law and American democracy writ large, AP's Gary Fields and Nicholas Riccardi report. The Reinhart imbroglio comes amid an increase in political violence and violent political rhetoric in recent years. "This is a classic precursor of a democratic breakdown," said Harvard professor STEVEN LEVITSKY. "To call this a warning sign is an understatement." THE VIEW FROM TRUMP WORLD — Trump is weighing the possibility of publicizing surveillance footage of the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago, CNN's Gabby Orr, Sara Murray, Kaitlan Collins and Katelyn Polantz report. Some Trump allies, including STEVE BANNON, are urging him to release the tapes, saying they could bolster him politically and that it's a fait accompli he'll do so at some point. But others in Trump world worry the move could backfire. "As Trump mulls a third presidential campaign, the more politically potent move for him could be to keep teasing the existence of security footage without ever making it public." CASH DASH — The search has paid off financially for Trump, who's seen a massive surge of fundraising since last week: Twice, his PAC pulled in more than $1 million in a day, compared to usual levels of $200,000 to $300,000, report WaPo's Josh Dawsey and Isaac Arnsdorf. "The donations stayed unusually high for several more days and are still above average … though they have leveled off in recent days. There are more contributors than usual … and the average donation has climbed." GARY COBY is leading the fundraising effort, with help from BRAD PARSCALE. Related read: "Media to ask judge to release Trump search warrant affidavit," AP ALL POLITICS STAYING GOLDEN — Rep. JARED GOLDEN's (D-Maine) seat is a ripe target for Republicans to pick off in a strong GOP year. But the moderate is putting up a surprisingly strong fight, in part thanks to his open criticism of the Democratic Party, Sarah Ferris reports this morning from the banks of the Penobscot. Former Rep. BRUCE POLIQUIN is seeking to reclaim his old seat by blasting Golden on the economy and the reconciliation bill. But the incumbent is carving his own path: slamming his own party on guns, steering earmarks to the district, earning support from the Maine Fraternal Order of Police and maintaining a certain equanimity about his role. "This isn't my identity," Golden told Sarah. "I'm going to continue to do it for the time being if voters reelect me … But I'm not, like, losing sleep at night, worrying, 'Am I gonna lose?'" WYOMING, TWO DAYS LATER — Biden called Rep. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.) on Wednesday after she lost her primary, Bloomberg's Jennifer Jacobs and Justin Sink scooped. — Noteworthy details, via NYT's Shane Goldmacher : After JEFF LARSON , a former RNC chief of staff and national convention chair, helped out Cheney's reelection bid, he "was asked to step down as chairman of America Rising" — news that's rocketing around GOP circles. Also: "In recent days, [Cheney's] campaign paid Google to run a video ad in just two tiny communities in the nation: Bedminster, N.J., Mr. Trump's summer residence, and Teton Village, the hamlet that is home to the Four Seasons and [House Minority Leader KEVIN] McCARTHY's event." — Olivia Beavers scooped a recording of the call Cheney made conceding the race to HARRIET HAGEMAN, which — while not exactly effusive — seemed to contradict Hageman's account on "Hannity" that Cheney had left a 2-second message that said "Hello, Harriet" and nothing more. But Hageman's campaign then provided video that appears to support their version of events. — CHUCK GRAY, an election denier, won the Republican nomination for Wyoming secretary of state. More from Wyoming Public Media ALASKA, TWO DAYS LATER — The initial results from the Alaska special congressional election Tuesday, in which Democrat MARY PELTOLA led Republicans SARAH PALIN and NICK BEGICH III, "thrilled and surprised Democrats eager to see her become the first Alaska Native in Congress and the first woman ever to hold the seat," NYT's Jazmine Ulloa reports. Peltola is seen as "a warm and approachable Democrat with a reputation for kindness and empathy" who, interestingly, has long been close with Palin. THE NEW GOP — In POLITICO Magazine this morning, Hank Stephenson has a dispatch from Phoenix on MARK FINCHEM, the Arizona state rep who suddenly flew from sitting on the party's fringe to having a strong chance of becoming the next secretary of state. Finchem is perhaps the clearest instantiation of the state party's shift from JOHN McCAIN/DOUG DUCEY types to conspiracy-minded, hard-right election deniers. And many of Finchem's old colleagues still consider him a joke. (Finchem shrugs off their criticism.) GOP state Rep. PAUL BOYER: "Mark is known as the guy that's probably the dumbest — well, there's a long list, but one of the dumbest — legislators in the state House." QUITE THE TROLL — Trump announced winking endorsements of DAN GOLDMAN and Rep. CAROLYN MALONEY in hotly contested New York Democratic congressional primaries. "This is laughable," Maloney responded . Though Trump's Truth Social posts were obviously sarcastic, some of Goldman's Democratic opponents tried to use the news to hammer him. JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH THE INVESTIGATIONS — The federal grand jury for the DOJ Jan. 6 investigation subpoenaed the National Archives in May to get all the relevant materials it's already given to the House Jan. 6 committee, NYT's Alan Feuer, Maggie Haberman and Luke Broadwater reveal. The broad request from prosecutor THOMAS WINDOM "suggests that the Justice Department has not only been following the committee's lead in pursuing its inquiry, but also that prosecutors believe evidence of a crime may exist in the White House documents the archives turned over to the House panel." — Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) asked for a stay of the ruling forcing him to testify before a Fulton County, Ga., grand jury. Kemp also tried to get a subpoena tossed out for him to appear before the grand jury following what The Atlanta Journal-Constitution called "a communication breakdown between the governor's staff and prosecutors at the Fulton District Attorney's office." — After testifying Wednesday, RUDY GIULIANI told AP's Kate Brumback and Larry Neumeister that he "was very happy that I satisfied my obligation" under the subpoena.
| | | | A message from Facebook:   | | | ABORTION FALLOUT IN THE STATES — A North Carolina judge on Wednesday reinstated the state's ban on abortion after 20 weeks, paving the way for enforcement of the law to begin. More from The News & Observer — A ruling went the other way south of the border: South Carolina's Supreme Court blocked the state's "fetal heartbeat" ban on abortions for now while it weighs the law's constitutionality. More from The Post and Courier … But at the same time, Republican lawmakers pushed forward a near-total abortion ban in the South Carolina House. More from The State Related reads: "A tale of two states: Kansas, Indiana and the abortion wars to come," RawStory … "Post-Roe differences surface in GOP over new abortion rules," AP TRUMP CARDS TRUMP INC. — We have new details on ALLEN WEISSELBERG's plan to plead guilty today in the Manhattan DA's investigation of the Trump Organization, via NYT's Ben Protess, William Rashbaum and Jonah Bromwich : The longtime Trump accountant is expected to admit to 15 felonies and potentially testify at the trial against the company in October. But Weisselberg will avoid extended prison time and not be forced to cooperate with the larger investigation into Trump himself. AMERICA AND THE WORLD DEAL OR NO DEAL — After appearing to be on the verge of reviving the Iran nuclear deal, Western negotiators are now sounding the alarm that they're not sure if it can come together following the latest round of Iranian demands, WSJ's Laurence Norman reports from Berlin. "Central to Iran's response, the Iranian negotiating team has said, are assurances it seeks that Western companies investing in Iran would be protected if the U.S. withdrew from the pact again … Iran has also floated mechanisms in the agreement that would allow Tehran to quickly increase its nuclear work if Washington quit the deal." FEATURE OF THE DAY — "How a Bloomberg Reporter's Family Escaped the Taliban," by Bloomberg Businessweek's Annmarie Hordern: "An account of the extreme measures it takes to get out of Afghanistan." FOR YOUR RADAR — "D.C. police probe death of international businessman critical of Putin," by WaPo's Emily Davies: "DAN K. RAPOPORT, an international investment banker, was found outside an apartment building at 2400 M Street NW. … Because of his global ties and his outspoken views on Putin, Rapoport's death has generated international interest — even though police have not alleged any wrongdoing." THE ECONOMY FED UP — Don't expect the Fed to pull back on its significant interest rate hikes anytime soon: Newly released minutes show the central bank expects to continue on its current path until inflation tempers in a big way. More from CNBC VALLEY TALK MUSK READ — ELON MUSK advised Republican congressional leaders and top conservative donors at a Wyoming retreat to practice, essentially, compassionate conservatism (or libertarianism), Axios' Hans Nichols reports . "Musk suggested that the country would prosper if Republicans 'stayed out of people's bedrooms' and Democrats stayed 'out of people's wallets,' according to attendees. He celebrated free markets and warned of the dangers of socialism — messages that were well-received by the audience." But the Tesla CEO didn't make it seem like he was planning to shell out to Republicans.
| | | | INTRODUCING POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Peter Meijer is relying heavily on the Speedway roller grills. John Yarmuth is getting inducted into the Kentucky Bourbon Hall of Fame. Michael Hayden agreed with Edward Luce's contention that the contemporary GOP is the worst political force he's seen in the democratic world. SPOTTED: Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at Belga Café on Wednesday night. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service is announcing its class of fellows for the fall semester: Karoun Demirjian, Katie Harbath, Xochitl Hinojosa, Alex Lundry, former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe and Mary Elizabeth Taylor. The announcement STAFFING UP — Shelby Wagenseller is now deputy associate director for comms (on the budget side) at OMB. She most recently was deputy comms director at the Office of Personnel Management. … Stephanie Epner is joining the NSC as special adviser for climate and acting senior director for climate and energy. She most recently was senior adviser on climate change and foreign policy at the State Department. … Mikaela Gerwin is joining the Domestic Policy Council as special assistant for health and veterans and immigration. She previously was policy coordinator in the Office of the Secretary at HUD. TRANSITIONS — Trent Morse is now campaign manager for Tudor Dixon's Michigan gubernatorial campaign. He most recently was a senior associate at Ballard Partners, and is a Trump HHS, HUD and DOT alum. … Sarah Abel is joining American Bridge 21st Century as Senate comms director. She most recently was comms director for Sarah Godlewski's Wisconsin Senate campaign, and is a Ron Kind alum. … Christopher Groneng is now deputy press secretary for rapid response at the DNC. He previously was a comms associate at Everytown for Gun Safety. … … Ashleigh Wilson is now federal government affairs manager and counsel at Nucor. She most recently was legislative director and counsel to House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.). … Chris Gorud is now legislative director for Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.). He most recently was chief of staff for Rep. Alan Lowenthal (D-Calif.). … Mohamed Awan is now a partner in Crowell & Moring's litigation and mass tort, product and consumer litigation groups. He most recently was a partner in Honigman Miller Schwartz and Cohn's litigation practice. ENGAGED — Jackson Rees, assistant political/legislative director at IATSE, proposed to Hannah Lindow, head of policy comms at Cruise and an Elissa Slotkin alum, on Aug. 9 in the south of France, overlooking the Montagne Sainte-Victoire. The couple met after a mutual friend introduced them, and as they walked home from drinks, they realized they were living in the same GW dorm on the same floor as D.C. summer interns. Instapics WEDDING — Katherine Steinberg, director of arts and culture for the American Immigration Council, and Andy Kinsey, executive producer for experiential and broadcast at FCB Health, got married Aug. 6 in Narrowsburg, N.Y. They met at the Korean karaoke bar Insa in Brooklyn. He's a musician, so the two sang songs for three hours. Pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Michigan state Rep. Kyra Bolden , who's running for the Michigan Supreme Court, and Greg Bolden, a dentist, on Monday welcomed Emerson Portia Bolden, who came in at 6 lbs, 14 oz and 21 inches. — Bart Devos, senior director of public policy for the Responsible Business Alliance, and Antonella Vagliente, director general at Young Water Solutions, welcomed Mila Devos on Aug. 10. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Louie Gohmert (R-Texas) and Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.) … Connie Hair … WSJ's Sadie Gurman … Cara Mason … WaPo's Erik Wemple … Jason Furman … Scott Haber-Katris … Ben Wermund of the Houston Chronicle/San Antonio Express-News … Meera Kallupura … Lincoln Foran … Bill Tomson … Megan Scully … former Rep. Toby Moffett (D-Conn.) … Paris Dennard … H.R. Bert Peña … POLITICO's Lee Hudson, Jesse Naranjo and Carlos Rosario … CNN's Simone Pathe … Bryan Greene of the National Association of Realtors … Robert Lynch … Bill McCormick … Jeffrey Hiday of the RAND Corporation … Roger Zakheim … HHS' Elizabeth Letter … Luke Mitchem … Anna McGreal of the Progressive Turnout Project … Jordan Baugh … Mary Anne Bradfield … former Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, now of Warburg Pincus … Rosalynn Carter (95) … Bob Woodruff … Jules Polonetsky … Laurie Doane of the Herald Group … Austan Goolsbee … National Park Service's Mike Litterst Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
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