🔮 Divided GOP fortunes

Plus: Midterm ad explosion | Thursday, August 18, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By General Mills   Axios Sneak Peek By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Aug 18, 2022 Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,053 words ... 4 minutes. 🏖️ Situational awareness: We're going dark for a few weeks for August recess and will be back in your inbox on Sept. 6.     1 big thing: GOP's split-screen House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (left) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Photos: Erin Scott/Bloomberg; Eric Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images Even Republicans are beginning to acknowledge that their path back to power in the Senate in November's elections is far less clear than in the House, Axios' Andrew Solender reports. Why it matters: The sharp divergence between the GOP's fortunes in the two chambers highlights the role candidate recruitment — and the involvement of former President Trump — has played in this midterm cycle. Driving the news: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) admitted at an event in his home state today that "there's probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate." "Senate races are just different, they're statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome," he said. Minutes before the Republican leader's comments, news broke that the McConnell-affiliated Senate Leadership Fund is intervening in Ohio with a massive $28 million ad reservation. In a state Trump won by 10 points and was thought to be comfortably red, Republican J.D. Vance is running neck and neck with Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio). The big picture: Republicans are also facing persistent candidate quality and money issues in winnable Senate races in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin and Georgia. The other side: House Republicans, meanwhile, are targeting districts President Biden won by double digits in an ambitious effort to pad the majority they're confident they'll win. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, for example, has made a concerted effort to boost Allan Fung, Republicans' nominee in Rhode Island's 2nd District, which Biden won by more than 13 points. They're also eyeing districts like New York's 17th, home of Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. What we're hearing: Republican operatives who spoke to Axios credited House Republicans' active involvement in primaries — in contrast with Senate Republicans' policy of neutrality — as the driver of their success. The vacuum left by the Senate Republican establishment was filled by former President Trump, who values personal fealty far more than electability. What they're saying: "Republican outside groups have taken a more active role in open primaries to promote electable candidates and get them through their primaries," said one Republican campaign operative, pointing to the McCarthy-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund spending $7 million in primaries. McCarthy and National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) "have done an amazing job of recruiting the best class of candidates to have ever run as House Republicans, both in quantity and quality," said one national GOP strategist. "That's one of the main reasons we are seeing House Republicans reach deep into traditionally Democrat seats and compete." The bottom line: FiveThirtyEight's election forecasting model puts Republicans' odds to win the House at 77 in 100 — compared to 36 in 100 for winning the Senate. Share this story.     2. 💰 Midterm ad explosion Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios   Americans are about to be bombarded with hundreds of millions of dollars in political ads as the parties' top spenders prep a huge fall advertising blitz, Axios' Lachlan Markay reports. Why it matters: 2022 election spending is expected to smash records. With primary season coming to a close, both parties are preparing to unload the massive war chests they've stockpiled since last year. Advertising intelligence firm AdImpact projects the 2022 cycle will see nearly $9.7 billion in political advertising. That's more than double the previous midterm record, set in 2018, and even more than was spent during a 2020 election cycle that featured a hotly contested presidential race. Driving the news: Senate Majority PAC, Democrats' leading Senate super PAC, just started dropping millions into Georgia — one of the most competitive states in the country. An SMP-affiliated group, Georgia Honor, reported spending more than $3 million this month on ads attacking Republican Senate nominee Herschel Walker. SMP itself took out "six figures" in new ad buys in North Carolina — a Republican-leaning seat — this month, the group told Axios. Those expenditures represent just a fraction of the more than $100 million in airtime SMP has reserved for the fall, with ads across six states expected to begin airing this month. The other side: In the House, the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund has reserved more than $125 million in airtime across 48 media markets. Keep reading.     3. 🔎 Affidavit reality check Trump supporters drive around the Paul G. Rogers Federal Building and Courthouse in West Palm Beach, Fla. Photo: Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images   A federal judge in Florida said he was inclined to at least partially unseal the affidavit supporting the FBI's search of former President Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence but gave the Justice Department a week to submit proposed redactions. Reality check: It's highly unlikely any explosive information from the affidavit becomes public before an indictment. The investigation into Trump's handling of classified documents is in its "early stages," and unsealing the affidavit could "chill other witnesses who may come forward," a top DOJ official said in court. "[T]he redactions necessary to mitigate harms to the integrity of the investigation would be so extensive as to render the remaining unsealed text devoid of meaningful content," DOJ warned in a previous filing. Between the lines: One thing we did learn from documents unsealed today: Trump's possible violation of the Espionage Act relates to his "willful retention of national defense information" — meaning there's evidence he was "told to return material and didn't," according to law professor Steve Vladeck.     A message from General Mills Improving the resilience of agriculture     General Mills believes that good food comes from good soil. That's why the company is working with farmers to grow food as nature intended. The reason: People and the planet depend on it. Learn how regenerative agriculture can help build a thriving future for all.     4. 🗳️ Mapped: The battle for state Senates Data: National Conference of State Legislators; Note: As of June 1, there were 61 state Senate seats across all 50 states that were vacant or held by members who do not identify as Republican or Democrat; Nebraska has a unicameral state legislature and is not included in this map; Map: Nicki Camberg/Axios In last night's edition, we showed you the three statehouses with elections in November where fewer than five seats separate the majority and minority parties: Arizona, Minnesota and Michigan. Tonight we're looking at upper chambers, where the margin is five seats or fewer in Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Nevada and Texas, Axios' Stef Kight reports from data by the National Conference of State Legislatures. The big picture: Republicans currently control 31 state Senates compared to Democrats' 18 — another sign of the dominance they've exerted over state legislatures for the past decade. Explore the interactive.     5. 🦋 Birthday butterflies Photo: John Bazemore/AP Rosalynn Carter, the second-oldest first lady ever, celebrated her 95th birthday with a rare public outing (not pictured) for the dedication of a new butterfly sculpture in Plains, Georgia. Her husband, former President Jimmy Carter, turns 98 on Oct. 1. The butterfly backstory.     A message from General Mills A healthier and cleaner planet     General Mills is innovating in packaging design to reduce environmental impact. The goal: By 2030, General Mills is committed to make 100% of its packaging recyclable or reusable to create a healthier tomorrow for our planet. Learn how.   📬 Thanks for reading this week! Sign up here for Axios AM and PM to keep up with our politics coverage while Sneak is off. 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