😏Here’s How to Make Sense of “Bad News Is Good News” Data

Good morning. Markets initially sank on Friday as the latest jobs report showed that over...

It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Markets initially sank on Friday as the latest jobs report showed that over 370,000 jobs were added in June – about 100,000 more than expected. The narrative of the past few weeks has been that unemployment is starting to go up. In theory, that will reduce demand, slow down the economy, and bring down inflation. That's why markets initially treated this good news as bad news for the market. But a look behind the headlines may explain why stocks moved off the lows. Both full-time and part-time workers declined, based on the Household survey data. And it shows that the real increase in employment came from those working more than one job. That includes those who work multiple full-time jobs – hardly an indication of a strong job market. While the data behind the headlines is more nuanced, it's clear that the market isn't out of the woods yet. And there may be reasons for the Fed to pivot later in the year. But expect more volatility and pain ahead first. Now here's the rest of the news: Sponsored Content Squeeze this "cash spout" for instant gas, grocery, rent money What if instead of loosing money every time you fill up at the pump… there was a way to "throw the pump in reverse" - and fill up with cash every time you pull the handle. According to trading legend Keith Kaplan… this secret "cash spout" exists in a hidden corner of the stock market - which FORCES instant payouts out of every trade. If you'd like to discover how you can start making these trades... Click here for the live trading "demo" to see how it works. MARKETS DOW 31,338.15 -0.15% S&P 3,899.38 -0.08% NASDAQ 11,635.31 +0.12% *As of market close • Stocks closed mixed on Friday, following better-than-expected jobs data. • Oil rose 1.9 percent, closing at $104.72 per barrel. • Gold traded flat, last going for $1,740 per ounce. • Cryptocurrencies moved slightly higher, with Bitcoin at $21,786 at the stock market close. Today's TOP TIPS Cyclical and Structural Demand May Bode Well for This Industry Leader Some stocks are cyclical, moving up and down in a somewhat predictable manner. Other companies tend to have steadier returns over time, making for a reasonable investment for the long haul. Sometimes, however, a cyclical company can develop in a way that allows it to undergo a structural change as well. That's where a new product or service creates substantial new value. It may create a new cycle, or simply break the pattern of trading in one. » FULL STORY Insider Trading Report: Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Maurice Milikin, Chief Supply Chain officer at Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), recently picked up 12,979 shares. The buy doubled the executive's position, and came to a total cost of just over $466,000. The officer made the first buy back in late June. Other company executives have been active this year on the buy side, with the company's Chief Strategy Officer picking up nearly $2.4 million in shares back in May, and the company's Chief Legal Officer buying nearly 15,000 shares so far this year. » FULL STORY Unusual Options Activity: Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) Shares of residential construction company Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) have given up all of last year's gains, and are even down 15 percent over the past year. One trader sees further downside ahead. That's based on the January 2023 $30 put. With 193 days until expiration, 11,084 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 301, for a 38-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $1.03 to bet on prices sinking lower. » FULL STORY IN OTHER NEWS • US Adds 372,000 Jobs in June The US saw 372,000 new jobs added in June. That's far over the expectations of economists for just 250,000 jobs created. Unemployment remained steady at 3.6 percent. The news was better than expected given the rising number of layoff announcements at companies, notably tech companies, in the past few weeks. • Housing Affordability Reaches Lowest Level Since 2006 A combination of high home prices and rising mortgages rates are squeezing potential buyers out of the housing market. The National Association of Realtors' housing affordability index has dropped to 102.5 for May. That's the lowest level since July 2006, when the index hit 100.5. The all-time low for the index is 100.2, set in July 1990. • Container Wait at West Coast Railroads Hits 8 Days Cargo coming into the US on the West Coast is now waiting for just over 8 days. With 60 percent of all containers from West Coast ports dependent on rail for shipping to their final destination, a new supply chain bottleneck is occurring. Some East Coast ports are seeing increased shipping activity. • IMF Warns on Likely US Recession The International Monetary Fund has warned that it would be nearly impossible for the US to escape falling into a recession as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises interest rates to tamp down on inflation. The Chief Economist at the IMF also expects the Fed to slow down its rate hikes as the economy enters a recession. • Coalition Raises $250 Million at $5 Billion Valuation Coalition, a cyber insurance startup, has raised $250 million in a Series F funding round. That's taken the company's valuation to $5 billion. The company raised a Series E funding just under a year ago, at a $3.5 billion valuation. The company reports that revenue has grown almost 200 percent and customers have tripled since then. S&P 500 MOVERS TOP EPAM 4.172% MCK 3.805% CNC 3.003% SEDG 2.838% REGN 2.417% BOTTOM AOS 4.647% TWTR 4.434% CZR 4.431% FCX 3.457% WBD 3.409% Quote of the Day You just don't see the capitulation just yet, I think there's a little bit more that needs to happen between now and the July Fed meeting. - Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat, on why the market is likely to see some more downside volatility this month as more economic data and the next Fed meeting come into play. Sponsored Content Squeeze this "cash spout" for instant gas, grocery, rent money What if instead of loosing money every time you fill up at the pump… there was a way to "throw the pump in reverse" - and fill up with cash every time you pull the handle. According to trading legend Keith Kaplan… this secret "cash spout" exists in a hidden corner of the stock market - which FORCES instant payouts out of every trade. If you'd like to discover how you can start making these trades... 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