Monday, July 11, 2022

Biden’s next foreign policy test is here

Tomorrow's conversation, tonight. Know where the news is going next.
Jul 11, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Nightly logo

By Myah Ward

President Joe Biden and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman are seen in a collage.

MIDDLE EAST 'RESET'? President Joe Biden is already playing defense in the run-up to his trip to the Middle East this week.

It's no surprise. There's a lot on the line — from political instability to human rights issues, energy supply and regional security. The president plans to start in Israel before traveling to the West Bank to meet with Palestinian leaders. Biden will end the trip in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, where he'll participate in a summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council with leaders of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Jordan and Egypt.

To break down the importance of Biden's trip, Nightly called the former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia from 2014 to 2017, Joseph Westphal, now a professor at the Lauder Institute at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. This conversation has been edited.

What's the significance of this trip?

There is the strategic importance of not just Saudi Arabia, but the Gulf states, given the shipping, the energy issues, and the ongoing situation with Iran. So from a strategic security point of view, it's very important to us. And while we're not fighting a war anymore, like we were in Iraq or Afghanistan, there's still quite a bit of trouble in the region, in Syria, Lebanon and other places.

We need partners to support our climate change initiatives. We need partners to support us with respect to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We need to take advantage of trade opportunities, which have declined and have been overcome by Chinese trade in the region. We need to come back to being the major trading partner. These are all things the president can open up and bring to light.

Before we get to Saudi Arabia, which has received the most coverage of the upcoming trip, how important is Biden's visit to Israel and the West Bank at this moment? 

It's hugely important. I'm so glad that he chose to go at this time because Israel is going through turmoil, changing government leadership. They have basically an acting prime minister. So this is a time when whatever is discussed with the Israelis in terms of the Palestinian situation, in terms of Middle East in general, will help perhaps encourage people in Israel to transition to a more stable government situation, which is important for us.

The difficulty, of course, will be a discussion about the Palestinian situation. I believe that a Palestinian state is almost an impossibility right now, but that is something that the president believes in. The Saudis certainly believe in it. So there will probably be some discussions about whether that's even possible in the near future.

Then he's going on to Saudi Arabia. The hopes are, of course, at some point we'll see an exchange of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which I think are coming.

There has been a lot of emphasis on human rights concerns, and whether Biden's trip to Saudi Arabia could be seen as letting the country off the hook for its abuses. But you think this trip is worth the blowback he will face on this front? 

Absolutely. Presidents, including Biden, have met with Putin. Putin is committing murder and atrocities in Ukraine. We still have to deal with Putin, so did Trump, and so did Obama. Erdogan has been responsible for quite a bit of human rights violations in Turkey. Xi in China, and so on. We can continue to press human rights issues and continue to advocate as much as possible and use our influence, but we cannot shut the door on important partnerships and strategic initiatives that we need to advance.

When you're in one of those meetings, how do you balance moving forward to redefine a relationship while also addressing such thorny issues? 

Biden is a really experienced negotiator. My sense is that, like President Obama and other presidents, he will put on the table some of the difficult issues that you need to put there, whether it's human rights, whether it's Yemen. But more importantly, what I think he will do is say, "We need to move forward now. What was said in the past, how we got to this place, is not good for either of our countries, and we need to reset our relationship." That doesn't mean we are not going to be concerned about human rights, or concerned about other issues associated with the values that we espouse.

Now, Biden still doesn't have an ambassador there. And it took Trump two years to name an ambassador after I left. That's not good. That's not how you relate to a country, because your ambassador is your most important vehicle for advancing your policies.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight's author at mward@politico.com or on Twitter at @MyahWard. Keep reading for more on how Westphal thinks Biden will address the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, oil and Iran.

With what you know about Biden, do you think he will directly address the Khashoggi murder? 

I think everything that he feels needs to be said, has been said. They have heard it, and they have reacted to it. After Biden was elected, the kingdom reacted to that in an unhappy fashion because of the comments Biden has made. So that's already been said, you don't need to go back over that. What you need to do is just say, how do we move forward? How do we advance a policy in the future that restores our trust in you, your trust in us and our ability to work together on important issues? He wouldn't be taking this trip unless he thinks that's important.

A lot of people think he's going to get them to raise oil production to lower prices. I don't think so. It's not that simple. I think we need to have a restructured partnership. We also need a security agreement among the Gulf states. It's important to create some kind of a unified way of addressing the strategic challenges that the region faces by a united group of Gulf countries, on everything from missile defense, to cybersecurity, to energy, shipping.

Do you expect the president to address Saudi Arabia's alliance with Russia on oil? 

I think he will mention it. I would be surprised if he doesn't try to make the argument that Saudi Arabia is much better off strengthening the partnership with the United States than committing to a relationship with Russia. He can point out that the partnership with us is much longer-standing, much more stable and much more important to the Saudis than anything they can do with Russia.

You could potentially have a situation where if the discussion goes really, really well, Mohammed bin Salman — he doesn't have a legislature he has to worry about — he could certainly make some announcement at the end of the meeting, that they will work to increase the supply of oil to try to attempt to reduce prices. But that's not necessarily going to reduce our price at the pump because that's based on all those things that you hear about in the economy that have nothing to do with the supply of oil, like refining capacity and trucking.

Another tough subject for Biden on this trip is Iran, especially amid stalled nuclear negotiations with Tehran after Trump pulled out of the deal with the country. 

The Saudis definitely supported President Obama's efforts with Vice President Biden to secure an agreement with Iran. What they did not like was that the agreement, which would eventually phase off some of the sanctions, did not come with negotiations over how the Iranians were going to stop arming the Houthis in Yemen, stop arming Hezbollah in Lebanon and stop attacking in Syria and Iraq. All these other activities that Iran carried out were not part of those negotiations, solely the nuclear piece. They would like to see Biden push hard to have Iran reduce their subversive activities in these other countries before the U.S. relieves sanctions. I'm sure that will be brought up.

 

DON'T MISS DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED:  Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.

 
 
What'd I Miss?

— Progressive group to press Biden not to run in 2024: RootsAction.org, a left-wing group that worked in 2020 to persuade progressives to support Biden, is now preparing to turn on him, organizers told POLITICO, with plans to spend six figures launching a public pressure campaign to block his renomination in 2024. The effort is the latest sign of unrest among Democrats about Biden, whose job approval rating has cratered during a punishing midterm election year.

— Biden extends protections for Venezuelans in U.S., rejects calls to go further: The White House today extended the Temporary Protected Status of hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans living in the U.S., but ignored calls from immigration advocates and Democratic lawmakers to expand protections to 250,000 Venezuelans who arrived in the U.S. after TPS was granted in March of last year.

— FDA weighs first-ever application for over-the-counter birth control pills: The Food and Drug Administration is reviewing an application from HRA Pharma to sell its birth control without a prescription. If green-lit by the agency, Opill would become the first daily, hormonal birth control pill sold over the counter in the U.S. The company argues that there's a public health case for its approval as there are millions of unintended pregnancies every year and abortion is becoming increasingly inaccessible.

President Joe Biden and Parkland father Manuel Oliver are seen during the president's speech on gun violence.

— Parkland father interrupts Biden's gun control speech: Manuel Oliver, the father of a victim of the 2018 mass shooting in Parkland, Fla., interrupted Biden during a speech today marking the passage of the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, the first major gun legislation in more than a decade. "You have to open an office in the White House. Name a director," Oliver was heard saying. The president addressed Oliver's demands, saying "we have one" in response to the call for a federal office dedicated to gun violence.

— Biden admin looks to protect doctors providing emergency abortions: The Biden administration released updated guidance today reminding doctors around the country that they're protected by federal law if they terminate a patient's pregnancy as part of treatment in an emergency circumstance — and threatening to fine or strip the Medicare status from hospitals that fail to do so. The action comes in response to reports of widespread confusion in states that have enacted bans about when doctors can perform abortions without risking prosecution.

— Judge shreds Bannon defenses ahead of contempt trial: A federal judge today eviscerated nearly all of Steve Bannon's defenses against a charge that he criminally defied a subpoena from the Jan. 6 select committee, leaving the longtime Trump ally with few options to fight the contempt of Congress case against him . The judge also denied Bannon's bid to postpone the jury trial set to open next Monday, rejecting defense arguments that such a delay was warranted due to intense media coverage around the ongoing House hearings on the Capitol siege.

 

Congressional Vision for Tech Across America – July 21 Event : How can innovation play a role in America's global economic leadership? On July 21, Rep, Gerry Connolly (D-VA), Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN), Rep. Trey Hollingsworth (R-IN), Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA), Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) are sharing Congress' vision for the future of policy and technology surrounding workforce and education at MeriTalk's MerITocracy 2022: American Innovation Forum. The forum will feature Hill and White House leadership and industry visionaries as they dig into the need for tangible outcomes and practical operational plans. Save your seat here.

 
 
AROUND THE WORLD

ARMING PUTIN — The Iranian government is preparing to send "several hundred" drones, including some equipped with weapons, to Russia at some point in July, national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters today.

Sullivan made the announcement during an afternoon briefing at the White House, where he said he was confident that with support from the West, Ukraine's capital Kyiv will remain under Ukrainian control, writes Matt Berg.

"Our information indicates that the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with up to several hundred [unmanned aerial vehicles], including weapons-capable UAVs on an expedited timeline," Sullivan said. "It's unclear whether Iran has delivered any of these UAVs to Russia already."

Iran will train Russian forces to use the drones as early as this month, he added.

FOOD FOR DISCUSSION The leaders of Russia and Ukraine held separate talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan today on plans to reopen safe routes for shipping grain via the Black Sea, writes Sarah Anne Aarup.

Russia has been blockading Ukraine's ports since Putin decided to invade in late February. Ukraine, which was once known as the breadbasket of Europe, is a major agricultural exporter and much of its grain is traditionally sent to import-dependent countries like Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria. Now, millions of tons of Ukrainian grain are stuck in storage facilities.

The U.N. and Turkey are trying to mediate discussions to restart Ukraine's crucial grain exports. But tensions are running high over allegations of stolen supplies, which Moscow denies: Ukraine's foreign affairs ministry estimates Russian forces have grabbed at least 400,000 tons of grain from the country since the February invasion.

Nightly Number

More than 753,759

The number of signatures submitted by Planned Parenthood, ACLU and other groups behind a campaign in Michigan to put an abortion rights amendment on the November ballot. The Secretary of State's office requires just over 425,000 signatures of registered Michigan voters to qualify for the ballot, so abortion-rights activists say they they're confident the petition will be swiftly certified.

Parting Words

Eric Herschmann, Tony Ornato and Pat Cipollone

Politico Illustration/Alamy; AP; Getty

ON DECK — Phil Waldron. Bobby Engel. Sarah Matthews. They're all key figures in the Jan. 6 select committee's sprawling investigation, but there's a fair chance you've never heard of them, write Kyle Cheney, Betsy Woodruff Swan and Nicholas Wu.

House investigators have named dozens and dozens of witnesses as they probe the tumultuous final weeks of former President Donald Trump's administration. While some of those have become household names, there are many more offering consequential pieces of evidence behind the scenes, which the panel has gradually released at each public hearing.

The select panel's upcoming hearings are expected to focus on the convergence between Trump's allies and fringe groups who incited Capitol violence, as well as the former president's 187 minutes of inaction as the mob breached the building. That means more recorded and live testimony to come.

Here's who you should know.

Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.

 

Follow us on Twitter

Myah Ward @myahward

Naomi Andu @naomiandu

 

Follow us

Follow us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Instagram Listen on Apple Podcast
 

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings

This email was sent to edwardlorilla1986.paxforex@blogger.com by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

Please click here and follow the steps to unsubscribe.

No comments:

Post a Comment

LIVE at 4 PM ET - 2 Traders Sharing 2 Different Strategies...

New Trading Event This shifting market is revealing some ideal options trades. If you are ready to grab some of the best setups...