Axios World: Chasing out a president

Plus: Japan after Shinzo Abe | Monday, July 11, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Babbel   Axios World By Dave Lawler · Jul 11, 2022 Welcome back to Axios World. Tonight's edition (1,716 words, 6½ minutes) takes off from Sri Lanka, with stops in Japan, the U.K., Syria and more. Out of this World: Here's the first full-color photo from NASA's James Webb Space Telescope, just released. New arrival? Subscribe.     1 big thing: Sri Lankans chase out their president Protesters and curious citizens enter the presidential palace on Sunday. Photo: Thilina Kaluthotage/NurPhoto via Getty Images   Sri Lankan protesters continue to occupy the residence of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who hasn't been seen or heard from in three days, though his allies say he's agreed to step down. The big picture: The island country of 22 million is bankrupt. With virtually no foreign currency remaining, the government is unable to import nearly enough fuel. Lines for gasoline can stretch for days, medicine supplies have run short, grocery shelves are bare and inflation has climbed to 50%. The World Food Program estimates that 86% of Sri Lankans are having to skip meals or take other such steps to cope. The protesters blame the Rajapaksas. After Gotabaya won a landslide election in 2019, he effectively instituted a one-family rule. His brother Mahinda Rajapaksa, a former president (2005–2015), became prime minister and two more Rajapaksa brothers joined the Cabinet, along with a nephew. After desperate shortages translated into massive protests in April, the Cabinet resigned en masse. Then the prime minister's supporters attacked peaceful protesters on May 9, unleashing a wave of violence, and Mahinda abruptly quit. Gotabaya, the last Rajapaksa standing, fled on Saturday before protesters swarmed his residence, his pool, his office and even his bed. What's next: Parliamentary Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena initially said the president was in a "nearby country," but he claimed today that he'd been confused and Rajapaksa never actually left Colombo, the capital. In any event, Abeywardena says Rajapaksa will resign on Wednesday and Parliament will elect his successor on July 20, after which a unity government will be formed. Flashback: Gotabaya initially came to prominence when, as defense minister, he ruthlessly brought three decades of civil war to an end, garnering a strongman reputation and war crimes allegations. He brought the Rajapaksas back to power with promises to restore security in the wake of a devastating terror attack. How the economy collapsed: Sri Lanka was already heavily indebted and Rajapaksa continued to borrow to fund infrastructure projects, while simultaneously pushing through the country's largest-ever tax cut. Then came the pandemic. Tourism dried up, the economy shrank and foreign reserves dwindled. Rajapaksa disastrously attempted to ban fertilizer imports in 2021 to save foreign currency and promote organic farming. Crop yields fell, and Sri Lanka had to spend more foreign currency to import food. As shortages and blackouts took hold, peaceful protests began in March. The government imposed a curfew, clashed with protesters and restricted social media as the president held on for the last four months. Driving the news: Images spread on Saturday of protesters streaming into the presidential palace, swimming in its pool, playing a grand piano, and taking turns pretending to be president. The scene was less joyous at the nearby prime minister's residence, which was set on fire. What's next: Sri Lanka has already defaulted on some of its debts, and it's seeking help from India, China, the IMF and other international donors as it attempts to cobble together $6 billion to cover its needs for the next six months. Contributions so far fall short of that. Meanwhile, opposition parties are negotiating the structure of the next government. Rajapaksa has remained silent thus far. Assuming he does leave as scheduled, his successor will face an enormous challenge.     2. Japan's conservatives move toward Abe's goal after his death A memorial to Abe outside LDP headquarters in Tokyo. Photo: Soichiro Koriyama/Bloomberg via Getty   Japan's conservative ruling coalition won a sweeping supermajority in parliamentary elections on Sunday, two days after the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Why it matters: Abe, who led the conservatives during his nine years as prime minister, was making a routine stump speech when he was shot and killed. His long tenure brought unprecedented stability to the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and to Japanese politics, before he resigned in 2020 due to health problems. The result means LDP could fulfill Abe's long-standing goal of revising Japan's pacifist post-World War II constitution for the first time to cement a role for the military. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who is less of an ardent nationalist than Abe, said Saturday that he has a "responsibility to take over the ideas of ... Abe." The latest: A wake for Abe was held today in Tokyo. A small funeral is expected tomorrow and a larger state funeral at a later date, per WaPo.     3. U.K. leadership race takes shape Rishi Sunak (left) with Boris Johnson in happier times for the PM. Photo: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images   Contenders to replace Boris Johnson will need the support of 20 MPs by tomorrow to qualify for Wednesday's first round of the Conservative leadership election, according to rules announced today. How it works: That will likely eliminate several of the 11 candidates. Even fewer will clear the 30-vote threshold in Wednesday's first ballot. The bar will continue to be raised in subsequent ballots until two candidates are left, likely within a week. The full party membership will select the winner, with the results expected on Sept. 5. Rishi Sunak, who helped fire the starting gun on the race by resigning as Johnson's finance minister last Tuesday, was fastest out of the gate and already has 39 declared supporters, according to the Telegraph's tally. Penny Mordaunt, a trade minister and former defense secretary who is positioning herself as a unity candidate, has 24 backers and came first in an informal poll of party members today. Tom Tugendhat, a foreign policy specialist and former army officer running as the moderates' choice, has 21 backers. The arch-Brexiteer wing of the party looks divided, while other favorites like Foreign Secretary Liz Truss (15 backers) and Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi (14) will need to win votes quickly to survive past Wednesday. Three notes on the race: 6 of the 11 candidates are immigrants or the children of immigrants. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace elected not to run despite being one of the oddsmakers' favorites. He's likely to stay in that job no matter who wins. Many have noted that senior Conservatives turned on Johnson while Republicans never abandoned Trump during scandals that were arguably more serious. One key point: Johnson's approval rating fell to 50% among his party's voters, while Trump's remained around 90%.     A message from Babbel Get conversational in a new language     Babbel offers bite-sized, 10-minute language lessons developed by over 150 linguists and voiced by native speakers. The impact: Users report being able to have a basic conversation after just three weeks of daily practice using Babbel. For a limited time, get up to 60% off your subscription.     Bonus: Where in the world? Screengrab via Apple Maps   Can you name these 10 major African cities? Note: Each city is located at the top right corner of the box for each number. Hints: 1–8 are all capital cities. 9 and 10 are two of the continent's biggest economic powerhouses. 1–3 all start with the same letter. 1 has seen big protests in recent years. Despite the distance, 2 and 3 are in bordering countries. The African Union's HQ is in 4, while the UN Environment Program is based in 5. 6 has a multi-word name, while 7 was renamed after independence. 8 hosted Barack Obama in 2009. 5–10 are all located in former British colonies.     4. UN mandate for aid to northwest Syria expires Displaced Syrians walk in a camp in northwestern Idlib province on April 30. Photo: Aaref Watad/AFP via Getty Images   Countries on the UN Security Council are scrambling to find a compromise that would extend the UN's mandate for humanitarian aid deliveries to more than 4 million people in rebel-held areas of northwest Syria, Axios' Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath writes. Driving the news: The mandate expired Sunday — two days after Russia vetoed a one-year extension and failed to garner enough votes on its own proposal for a six-month extension. What they're saying: "Without the UN, 70% of food needs will go unmet. An entire generation is at risk," U.S. Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield tweeted Sunday after meeting with aid agencies. "The UNSC decision will be a choice between life and death," she added. The big picture: More than two dozen aid groups, including the International Rescue Committee and Save the Children, had warned that failing to renew the mandate for aid deliveries through the Bab al-Hawa border crossing from Turkey to northwest Idlib could result in a "humanitarian catastrophe." The groups said that anything less than a year renewal would "jeopardize the [humanitarian] response just ahead of the harsh winter months" in Syria. "Just talking about the ending of humanitarian aid makes me feel anxious. My worries increase and I begin to imagine myself in the street and not getting my medicine. My family would have to resort to begging so we can afford to buy them privately." — 42-year-old IRC client displaced in northern Syria, per an IRC press release. Flashback: The mandate expired in 2020 but was renewed a day later, per Reuters.     5. Data du jour: Where the world is growing Data: United Nations; Chart: Nicki Camberg/Axios Three key stats from a UN report out today: 1. India is set to surpass China as the most populous country in the world sometime next year. 2. The world's population will reach 8 billion by Nov. 15 and climb to 9.7 billion in 2050, even as population growth slows due to decreased fertility rates in many countries. 3. More than half of the population growth through 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries — the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.     6. One to watch: Biden heads to the Middle East President Biden will make his first presidential visit to the Middle East his week, starting in Israel on Wednesday and ending in Saudi Arabia. He'll also make a stop in the West Bank and visit a Palestinian hospital in East Jerusalem. Zoom in: The Israeli government asked to send its own officials along on the hospital visit, but the Biden administration said no, Axios from Tel Aviv author Barak Ravid scoops. Why it matters: Since Donald Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, Israeli officials have accompanied U.S. officials to East Jerusalem, which most countries see as the future Palestinian capital. An Israeli official bristled at the U.S. decision, telling Barak it was a matter of Israeli sovereignty. Israel is in campaign mode, meaning every twist and turn of Biden's visit will generate domestic political debate. The trip is also politically sensitive for Palestinian leaders, as Biden has not met his campaign promise to reopen the U.S. Consulate in Jerusalem. Meanwhile, Biden clearly has abandoned his pledge to treat Saudi Arabia as a "pariah," in favor of an awkward reset with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Worth noting: 56% of American adults under 30 hold unfavorable views of Israel, according to a new Pew report released ahead of Biden's trip. Data: Pew Research Center; Chart: Axios Visuals Go deeper.     7. Stories we're watching Farmers at a drying yard in Hunan Province, China. Photo: Cao Zhengping/Xinhua via Getty Images   Leaks show how politicians like Macron helped Uber rise Amazon deforestation hits record high Iran set to supply Russia with armed drones, Sullivan says China imposes partial lockdowns; New variant in Shanghai Putin decree extends fast-track citizenship to all Ukrainians More U.S. arms for Ukraine Why natural gas costs so much more in Europe Mass shooting in South Africa Biden is nowhere close to hitting his refugee goals Former Angola President dos Santos dies at 79 Quoted: "I have friends who are aristocrats, I have friends who are upper class, I have friends who are, you know, working class. Well, not working-class." — A young Rishi Sunak to the BBC, in 2001     A message from Babbel Prepare for your next summer adventure with Babbel     This summer — whether you're preparing for a trip abroad or looking for a new hobby — you could be speaking a new language in three weeks with Babbel. Even better: Explore the culture behind the language with special courses on topics like sports, travel, festivals and more. Get up to 60% today.   Answers: 1. Khartoum; 2. Kinshasa; 3. Kampala; 4. Addis Ababa; 5. Nairobi; 6. Dar es Salaam; 7. Harare; 8. Accra; 9. Lagos; 10. Johannesburg. Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: