Monday, July 11, 2022

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By Bernie Becker

WELL, THEY'RE BACK: All in all, Democrats made some decent progress on their potential fiscal package during these last two weeks of recess — clinching an agreement on prescription drug reforms and perhaps coalescing behind a couple hundred billion dollars from expanding Obamacare's net investment income tax.

But Democrats really need to get a move on now, given that the House has just three legislative weeks left before its scheduled August recess — and no one really seems to think it would be a good idea to let this slip into September.

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer still have some work to do to get an agreement, and it remains to be seen how much that will be complicated by Sunday's news that Schumer has tested positive for the coronavirus and will be working remotely for the time being.

In the meantime, other senators are now taking this process very seriously, if nothing else. Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) cautioned Manchin against doing President Joe Biden's bidding on "Fox News Sunday," as our Connor O'Brien reported, noting how unpopular the president is in West Virginia.

On that same show, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) — who had sounded very pessimistic about Democrats passing a budget reconciliation measure in months past — criticized Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell for saying he wouldn't allow a China competition bill to pass if the Manchin-Schumer talks continued.

Side note: It's interesting that the House hasn't actually sent the bigger budget reconciliation bill that it passed last November over to the Senate.

The Congressional Research Service found that's the longest that the House has ever held a reconciliation bill, according to a note sent to Morning Tax by a source. That also means that it's still possible for the House to slim down the reconciliation measure themselves before sending it over to the Senate, though who knows if it ever gets even close to that point.

MORE ON ALL THIS IN A BIT, but first, thanks for coming to the "welcome back, Congress" version of Weekly Tax.

Well, that makes a little more sense now: Today marks 53 years since David Bowie released the song "Space Oddity," which happened to come out just nine days before the Apollo 11 moon landing.

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NICE TAX TREATY YOU GOT THERE: If nothing else, this wasn't subtle — the Biden administration is ending its tax treaty with Hungary because of Budapest's efforts to block implementation of the global tax deal, as Pro Tax's Brian Faler noted.

To be fair, the Treasury Department said the tax treaty, which went into effect more than 40 years ago wasn't working for the U.S. anyway.

Hungary's corporate tax rate is now down to 9 percent, which is one big reason Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's government is blocking the EU from moving forward on a global minimum tax of 15 percent for big multinational corporations.

If Hungary went along with the minimum tax, the current treaty would be a better deal for the U.S., Treasury said.

What's not clear is how much Treasury's hard line on the treaty will affect matters in Budapest, where the Orbán government has shown no signs that it's softening in its opposition to moving forward on Pillar Two of the tax deal negotiated through the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Either way, there's a couple ways to look at Treasury's decision on the Hungary tax treaty. On the one hand, it maybe shouldn't be too big of a surprise that Hungary invited some backlash by being the sole member of the 27-country EU to block implementation of the minimum tax — and took that stance as Poland, another part of the bloc, was backing away from its opposition.

But on the other hand, people close to the business community say it's a bad idea for the U.S. to be seen as undependable on its treaty obligations.

ON SECOND THOUGHT: It was a pretty understandable thought, and for a lot of people — how could it be completely chance that both James Comey and Andrew McCabe were both picked for an invasive and rare IRS audit, just a couple years apart?

After all, former President Donald Trump made it clear many times that he wasn't fond of either the former FBI director or his deputy.

But in the days since The New York Times broke the story about those audits, more and more experts are talking about just how hard it would be to fix the National Research Program audit process to single out Comey and McCabe.

Tax Notes' Jonathan Curry talked to several former IRS higher-ups and people who have long worked closely with the agency, and they all basically said it was plausible that Comey and McCabe were simply chosen by the program's automated process — as hard as that might be to believe.

And while the odds would surely be long for both Comey and McCabe to be chosen, The Washington Post's Jacob Bogage and Josh Dawsey noted that they would've gotten shorter after the two were no longer employed by the federal government.

That's because Comey and McCabe's tax situations would have been less straightforward and of more interest to the IRS, with the two getting income from things like book deals, cable news contracts and paid speeches.

A couple more quick points: Mark Mazur of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, a former top Treasury and IRS official, told Tax Notes that it shouldn't be that difficult for Treasury's inspector general for tax administration to get to the bottom of this issue. (Keep in mind that there's been an investigation for some 13 months now on how ProPublica obtained private taxpayer information.)

And an interesting policy question here: Should IRS officials have saved Comey and McCabe from undergoing the audits if they were chosen through regular channels, because of the potential political ramifications?

Former IRS chief Mark Everson told The Washington Post yes last week, while the former national taxpayer advocate Nina Olson believes it would've been unfair to substitute in less prominent taxpayers for reasons outside their control, according to Tax Notes.

 

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Around the World

OH YES, LET'S TALK TAXES: Perhaps fittingly for a race among Conservatives, tax cuts are going to be a key topic in the contest to succeed Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the U.K., Bloomberg reports. Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor of the exchequer, has announced that he wants to be the next party leader, and his replacement, Nadhim Zahawi, is among those who might jump into the race. The government's Office for Budget Responsibility has warned policymakers that the U.K. is on an unsustainable trajectory. But the candidates for Conservative leader are more likely to promise tax relief to Britons currently weighed down by inflation. Meantime, Sunak will likely come under criticism for the tax increases that occurred when he was chancellor, which brought the U.K.'s tax burden to its highest spot in several generations. Zahawi has said he wants to cancel a planned increase in the corporate tax rate, from 19 percent to 25 percent, set for next year.

Around the Nation

IT'S A DEAL: They were a bit behind schedule, but Pennsylvania lawmakers sent a new budget to Gov. Tom Wolf on Friday. But as The Associated Press reported, the wait might have been worth it for the Republicans who run the legislature, who scored a 1 percentage point cut in the corporate net income tax. The $45 billion budget also includes a 45 percent increase in funding, some $400 million in all, for a tax credit program popular among the GOP — an initiative that gives businesses tax incentives in exchange for contributions toward private school tuition.

On top of that, the new tax-and-spending framework contains an extra $140 million for a program that offers property tax and rent relief, as the Morning Call noted. That initiative was put into place for those 65 and older, as well as widows and widowers at least 50 years old and disabled adults. Only homeowners making up to $35,000 a year and renters making up to $15,000 are eligible for the program. Wolf had proposed using about $200 million that the state had gotten in federal coronavirus relief funds for the program.

Quick Links

AP: "Why Sri Lanka's economy collapsed and what's next."

Salt Lake Tribune: "After 10 years, this Utah alternative energy tax credit has yet to pay out any money."

WV MetroNews: " Tax bracket differences emerge over governor's proposal."

On The Calendar

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Let Morning Tax know about your future events: taxcalendar@politicopro.com.

Did you know?

Major Tom, the astronaut referenced in "Space Oddity," was actually mentioned in five separate songs by David Bowie.

 

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