| | | | | |  | | By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver | Presented by |  | | Editor's Note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services' morning newsletter, which is delivered to our subscribers each morning at 6 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro. | | | Why impeachment matters — Barring some big surprise, the House is likely to impeach President Donald Trump for a second time on Wednesday and send the matter to the Senate for trial. It will be the first time in U.S. history a president has been impeached twice. And Trump will be impeached for "willful incitement of insurrection," an unprecedented charge. Still seems unlikely the Senate will come back into emergency session to convict and remove Trump before Wednesday's inauguration. But it's no longer impossible. And the Senate could still convict him in the next Congress. The important thing to watch for markets, investors and corporations is the level of GOP support in the House for impeachment today and the number of GOP Senators who line up for immediate removal. Trump's GOP firewall is clearly splintering, with some of the biggest names in the GOP including Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), the number three Republican in the House, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy all to one extent or another showing support for punishing Trump. This is all part of an enormous reckoning inside the GOP. Will leadership manage to crush Trump and Trumpism? Will they succeed in pivoting the party back to one that champions smaller government, lower taxes, free trade, reasonable immigration policy and that avoids the kind of nativist, culture war, personality-driven rhetoric that took over during the 2016 primaries and the rise of Trump? Or will Trumpism continue to dominate headed into the 2022 midterms and 2024 presidential race? Corporate America is obviously moving quickly to try and push the party back toward a more Mitt Romney version of itself with denunciations of the Capitol attack and halts to campaign contributions. But given widespread distrust of big companies, it rests more on members of the party itself to drive a stake through Trumpism. And the next few days will tell us a great deal about whether that is going to happen. Meet Yellen's chief of staff — Per sources familiar with the matter, Didem Nisanci, a senior executive at Bloomberg, will serve as chief of staff to former Fed Chair Janet Yellen, assuming Yellen is confirmed (which she will be) as President-Elect Joe Biden's Treasury Secretary. Nisanci played a major role on climate issues at Bloomberg and Biden officials say she will play an active role on the issue at Treasury. She's also a first generation American and emigrated from Turkey as a child. An official announcement is expected fairly soon, though the timing is uncertain. GOOD WEDNESDAY MORNING — Well, here we go again. Impeachment proceedings expected to start around 9:00 a.m. in the House. Major history continues to play out before our eyes. Email me at bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver at aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver . | | A message from Independent Community Bankers of America: Community bankers welcome the 117th Congress: The new Congress is closely divided at a time of historic challenge and opportunity, but it need not be gridlocked. Accounting for more than 3.5 million Paycheck Protection Program loans, community banks have been financial first responders amid the coronavirus pandemic. ICBA offers a bipartisan legislative agenda with common-sense reforms to continue moving our nation forward. Learn more | | | | | | NEW ON THE PODS — In a world turned upside down by COVID-19 and tech disruption, the rules for how to prepare for or switch careers are changing. Concepts like reskilling and upskilling are on the rise. On the next episode of POLITICO's Global Translations podcast, hosts Ryan Heath and Luiza Savage talk to people on both sides of the new job training game. The show airs tomorrow. Listen here. GENSLER FOR SEC — Our Zachary Warmbrodt and Tyler Pager: "Obama-era Wall Street regulator Gary Gensler will likely be … Biden's pick to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission, four sources familiar with the matter said, a move that would energize progressives clamoring for appointees willing to challenge big business. "While Gensler spent his early career rising to the rank of partner at Goldman Sachs, he became best known for imposing sweeping rules on banks as the chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission after the 2008 financial crisis. In that role, he rattled the nation's largest banks, which lobbied against his efforts and sued to stop him. They'll probably be disappointed that he's on the way back to oversee their trading operations." MM ANALYSIS — This is one obvious result of Democrats' wins in Georgia. Gensler would be a tougher sell with a GOP Senate. Maybe an impossible one, given how much banks dislike him. But now he's likely to get through, though perhaps quite narrowly. Cap Alpha's Ian Katz : "While applauding Gensler, progressives already are pushing him to be assertive on climate-change issues. We believe that he will be. The crypto crowd also seems happy with the Gensler news, pointing out his support for blockchain technology. He has even taught a blockchain course at MIT, where he's an economics professor. (He cold-calls on students.)" THE BIG IDEA: WHY STATE AND LOCAL MONEY MATTERS — RSM's Joe Brusuelas: "More than 1.3 million state and local government jobs have been lost since December 2019. While this is the result of a broader economic shock across industrial sectors, we expect additional furloughs in state and local governments unless federal aid is quickly put in place to offset the collapse in tax revenues. "Unless there is aid put forward in the near term, another 1.5 million public sector jobs could be at risk. Although a windfall from capital gains taxes linked to elevated equity valuations have provided modest relief to beleaguered state and local government budgets, the situation is still dire." | | | |   | | | BERNIE ON BERNIE — Our Caitlin Emma has an interview with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on his plans as Senate Budget Committee chair. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TICKS DOWN — Per Morning Consult: "This week, Morning Consult's daily index of consumer sentiment ticked down, fueled by a plummet in GOP consumer confidence following the attack on the Capitol and Georgia Senate elections. … The widening partisan confidence gap underscores the degree to which politics influence consumers' economic outlook - a trend we observed in GOP consumers following the November election." BRIAN BROOKS HEADED OUT AT OCC — Our Victoria Guida: "Acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks is expected to leave the agency by the end of the week, according to people familiar with the matter. Brooks, who has made waves in the banking industry by pushing charters for financial technology firms during his seven months on the job, was expected to be replaced at the head of the national bank regulator after … Biden is inaugurated." DEUTSCHE BANK (FINALLY) CUTS TRUMP LOOSE — Our Zachary Warmbrodt: "Deutsche Bank, one of … Trump's main lenders, plans to distance itself from its best-known client in the wake of last week's Capitol insurrection, creating a new threat to Trump's finances once he leaves office. "The German bank will no longer do business with Trump or his company going forward, according to a person familiar with the matter. Trump owes the bank more than $300 million. Separately, New York's Signature Bank said it is closing Trump's personal accounts and calling for his resignation." | | | | A NEW YEAR, A NEW CONGRESS, A NEW HUDDLE: It was an ugly and heartbreaking week inside the Capitol, particularly for all of those who work on the Hill. How are lawmakers planning to move forward? How will security change? How will a new Senate majority impact the legislative agenda? With so much at stake, our new Huddle author Olivia Beavers brings you the most important news and critical insight from Capitol Hill with help from POLITICO's deeply sourced Congress team. Subscribe to Huddle, the essential guide to understanding Congress. It has never been more important. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | STOCKS NOTCH GAINS ON WALL STREET — AP's Stan Choe, Damian J. Troise and Alex Veiga: "Wall Street capped a wobbly day of trading Tuesday with modest gains, while Treasury yields extended their recent rally. The S&P 500 inched up less than 0.1 percent after flipping between small gains and losses for much of the day. "About 62 percent of companies in the index rose, with energy sector stocks notching the biggest gain as crude oil prices rose. Companies that rely on consumer spending also helped lift the market, outweighing declines in health care, communications and technology stocks." WALL STREET CEOS WILL GET CALL TO FACE SENATE BANKING'S NEW BOSS — Bloomberg's Jesse Hamilton and Robert Schmidt: "U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown plans to haul in top Wall Street executives for public hearings after he takes the gavel as chairman of the chamber's Banking Committee, a panel that he said has been too sympathetic to bankers in recent years. "The Ohio Democrat, who is poised to chair the panel after President-elect Joe Biden takes office next week, said in comments to reporters on Tuesday that his first priority is addressing economic relief from the Covid-19 pandemic. But the longtime financial industry critic also put chief executive officers on notice to expect a call." U.S. LABOR MARKET LOSING SPEED — Reuters' Lucia Mutikani: "U.S. job openings fell moderately in November, but mounting layoffs amid rampant COVID-19 infections supported views that the labor market recovery from the pandemic was stalling." | | | | KEEP UP WITH THE FIRST 100 DAYS OF THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION WITH TRANSITION PLAYBOOK: It was a dark week in American history, and a new administration will have to pick up the pieces. Transition Playbook brings you inside the last days of this crucial transfer of power, tracking the latest from President-elect Biden and his growing administration. Written for political insiders, this scoop-filled newsletter breaks big news and analyzes the appointments, people, and the emerging power centers of the new administration. Track the transition and the first 100 days of the incoming Biden administration. Subscribe today. | | | | | YELLEN'S CONFIRMATION HEARING SLATED FOR JAN. 19 — The Hill's Naomi Jagoda: "The Senate Finance Committee is expected to hold a confirmation hearing for Janet Yellen, President-elect Joe Biden's nominee for Treasury secretary, next Tuesday, a Senate source told The Hill. The planned hearing date is one day before Biden's inauguration. "If confirmed, Yellen is expected to play a key role in the new administration's response to the coronavirus-related economic downturn. Yellen, a former chair of the Federal Reserve, would also be the first woman to serve as Treasury secretary." CHINA'S ECONOMY SURGES (AND SO DOES ITS CURRENCY) — NYT's Alexandra Stevenson: "China's economy has come roaring back from the depths of the coronavirus pandemic, and its currency has joined the ride. "The currency, known variously as the yuan or the renminbi, has surged in strength in recent months against the American dollar and other major currencies. Through Monday, the U.S. dollar was worth 6.47 renminbi, compared with 7.16 renminbi in late May and close to its strongest level in two and half years." TRANSITIONS — Chris Scribner is joining Venable as senior policy advisor focused on financial services and banking clients. He was previously a senior vice president at the Smith-Free Group and head of public policy and corporate affairs for Regions Bank. | | A message from the Independent Community Bankers of America: Community bankers and ICBA offer a bipartisan agenda: Community bankers welcome the 117th Congress at a time of historic challenge and opportunity. While the new Congress is closely divided, it need not be gridlocked. Employing more than 700,000 Americans across nearly 50,000 locations with a presence in every congressional district, community banks have a track record of working with both parties to craft pragmatic solutions grounded in consensus. ICBA's bipartisan legislative agenda for the 117th Congress offers common-sense policy reforms that will continue our economic recovery in urban, suburban, and rural communities nationwide. Learn more | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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