| EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Fed and Wall Street release bold economic forecasts for the United States. Meanwhile, the ECB announced it will retain its current monetary policy. As for the UK, exports are expected to decrease significantly this 2021. 2021-01-13 The US Fed and Wall Street banks released bold economic forecasts yesterday, predicting a significant growth in US employment over the next three years. If this happens, the decline from past recessions will be fully offset. According to the forecasts, millions of workers will return to the labor market soon. However, if it does not happen, the US will enter a recovery phase, in which wage growth will lag far behind the pace of economic recovery and production. Yesterday, Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said the current economic crisis is very different from before, as it was caused not by economic problems, but by a natural disaster. Once the pandemic dies down, demand for services will skyrocket, and entertainment, travel and tourism companies will return to hiring, which will push the country's unemployment rate down. Fortunately, the US economy is now more resistant to the virus, so the risk of another lockdown is unlikely. Clarida also said that most of his colleagues have already revised their forecasts into positive in the medium term. However, there are still pessimists who believe that many jobs are lost forever, and businesses are destroyed. As a result, they do not expect a sharp recovery in the labor market in such a short time. In any case, the Fed believes the unemployment rate will fall to 5% by the end of this year, to 4.2% in 2022 and 3.7% by the end of 2023. And like the Fed, Goldman Sachs also released positive forecasts for the US. They project the unemployment rate to fall to 4.8% by the end of 2021, and then return to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2023. In another note, the ECB will have a press conference today, during which its president, Christine Lagarde, may talk about the need for further economic stimulus, along with changes in the monetary policy. Most likely, the expected easing of restrictions could lead to a recovery in prices, especially if demand also increases. In terms of inflation, there is a high chance that the ECB will ignore the expected spike this year, as it will most likely be temporary. In addition, the bank is focusing on data in the medium term, not in the short term. Therefore, such a scenario will not influence the decisions of the bank in any way, especially regarding its monetary policy. As for the German economy, forecasts say it will grow this year amid increasing exports. However, it will return to pre-crisis levels only by next year. 
In particular, the Federation of German Industries (BDI) said it will grow by 3.5% this year, after shrinking by about 5% in 2020. Clearly, COVID-19 and the implementation of lockdowns have severely disrupted economic activity. But fortunately, this year, exports are expected to grow by 6%, after collapsing by 11% last year. However, the BDI believes it will not be possible to return to the pre-crisis levels this year, as the chances of achieving this will be possible only in the first half of 2022. With regards to EUR / USD, the key level today is 1.2225. If the ECB announces that it will not change the monetary policy, the euro could grow to 1.2280 and 1.2345. But if the bears are able to push the euro down to 1.2175, EUR / USD will drop to 1.2135 and 1.2080. GBP Demand for the pound increased sharply yesterday after the Bank of England said it will not change its monetary policy. Many had expected that interest rates would drop to negative levels in February, but yesterday, Andrew Bailey allayed these concerns and said the Central Bank is not yet ready to take such measures. 
Such a decision is very good news for traders. However, at the same time, reports emerged that the cost of transporting goods across the UK has increased due to Brexit. The growth was observed in many services, from health certificates to new taxes and additional documents. Only 6% of firms told the Bank of England that they are fully prepared for a new relationship with the EU, so the headaches of transport companies are yet to come. As a result, exports could decrease by around £ 25 billion this year, due to weak demand and increased bureaucracy, which will lead to a drop in GDP by 1.1%. But despite that, GBP/USD is still trading upwards, in which it could even break above the 37th figure. The pound will only decline if the bears manage to push the quote below 1.3640, as such will inevitably drop the pair to 1.3590 and then to 1.3505. Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on January 13, 2021 2021-01-13 Daily 
Despite the gloomy bearish forecasts, the main currency pair managed to strengthen at yesterday's trading. Trading on January 12 ended at 1.2205, which is slightly higher than the important technical level of 1.2200 and the blue Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator. Nevertheless, the important and key resistance zone of 1.2200-1.2240, which was indicated the day before, has not yet been passed. Thus, in my opinion, a lot will depend on the results and closing price of today's trading. Perhaps it will become clear - this was a correction, after which the euro/dollar will continue its upward trend or we are still seeing a change in the exchange rate. Before moving on to a more specific technical analysis, let's briefly discuss what is happening in the United States and Europe. We will also highlight the important macroeconomic events of today. In the United States of America, passions continue to boil over Trump. Parliamentarians from the Democratic Party of the United States sent an official request (resolution) to the House of Representatives of the American Congress regarding the impeachment of the still-current President Donald Trump. This step is explained by the riots on January 6 and the penetration of Trump's supporters into the Capitol building. According to Democrats, the current President Donald Trump is a threat to the national security of the United States. That's it - no more or less. Meanwhile, Democrat Joe Biden, who won the presidential election, is making very generous promises. In particular, Biden promised to allocate trillions of dollars to support the American economy affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. I wonder if the printing presses of the US Treasury will withstand such a load? In Europe, the epic continues with the vaccination of the population. This process is moving very slowly, most Europeans do not trust vaccines for fear of side effects, as well as for some other reasons. It is necessary to note what an unprecedented advertising campaign is taking place concerning a particular vaccine and vaccination in general. The news shows footage of leaders of many world countries being vaccinated, reading out appeals from church representatives about the need for vaccination, and so on. As of last night, more than 90 million people in the world have already been infected with the coronavirus. Europe is groaning. In Germany, the quarantine may be extended for another two months, as another new strain of COVID-19 has been confirmed, this time African. Now about today's main events, which will be the speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde, which will take place at 10:00 (London time), and from the macroeconomic statistics, I recommend paying close attention to the US consumer price index, which will be published at 14:30 London time. If we return to the technical picture, then, due to the optimism in the global financial markets, the demand for safe assets is falling, which is especially strongly reflected in the US dollar. Nevertheless, the last weekly candle "Tombstone" has not yet been broken and still retains all the chances of working out. In this regard, as well as the presence of bearish divergences of the MACD indicator on the weekly and daily charts, I suggest leaving the trading plan the same for now, where selling EUR/USD is the main trading idea. I recommend looking for opportunities to open short positions after the pair rises to 1.2240, 1.2270, as well as in the price zone of 1.2300-1.2345. If the euro/dollar overcomes the important technical level of 1.2350 and fixes above it, the downward scenario will have to be invalidated and prepare for purchases of the pair with targets in the area of 1.2460-1.2500. Analysis and forecast for USD/JPY on January 13, 2021 2021-01-13 Today's review of the USD/JPY currency pair will focus on the technical picture. Usually, the review of the weekly chart takes place on Mondays, after the closing of trading of the previous five-day period. However, today, we will make an exception for a better understanding of what is happening. Moreover, there is a reason for this. Weekly 
So, following the results of trading on January 4-8, a reversal model of the candle analysis "Bullish Absorption" appeared on the weekly timeframe. This model is quite strong and is often worked out by the market, and if we take into account that similar reversal signals have appeared for some other major currency pairs, we can assume that the US dollar has completed its downward cycle and is ready to start strengthening across a wide range of the market. The beginning of trading this week confirmed this assumption, however, reaching the level of 104.40, the bulls lost all their hard-earned gains, and at the time of writing, the dollar/yen is trading with a slight decrease near 103.70. In the previous review for this currency pair, there was a strong resistance of sellers in the area of 104.00-104.40. Also, the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator provides additional and very significant resistance to attempts to break above the area of 104.00-104.40. It is worth paying attention to the support level of 103.18, which the bears on USD/JPY failed to breakthrough. As you can see on the chart, no single candle has closed below this level. Taking into account the minimum values of the previous weekly trading at 102.60, as well as the historical strength of this technical level, strong support is held in the area of 103.20-102.60, and only an update of the previous lows will signal that the players on the downgrade still have the "powder in their flasks" and the decline will continue. In the meantime, given the reversal candle model "bullish absorption", in my personal opinion, there are more chances for the implementation of an upward scenario. However, there are many strong resistances at the top, and market sentiment has recently tended to change quite frequently, so an alternative downward scenario cannot be completely ruled out. Daily 
On the daily chart, after a four-day growth, the pair met strong resistance when trying to enter the limits of the Ichimoku indicator cloud. There was a reversal on the decline, which was observed in yesterday's trading. It is worth noting that the drop was quite significant. Nevertheless, today's attempts by the bears to continue the pressure on the course, at the time of completion of this article, were limited to the daily Tenkan and Kijun lines. As repeatedly noted earlier, signals on higher timeframes have greater strength and chances to work out, and therefore I believe that the main trading idea for USD/JPY is still buying. I believe that yesterday's price decline and today's support for the Tenkan and Kijun lines is a very good option for opening purchases at reasonable prices. I suggest that you try to buy a pair after fixing above 103.70, on a rollback to this level, or more aggressively and riskily, at the current market price. For an alternative option, you need to see the reversal patterns of candle analysis in the price zone of resistance 104.00-104.40 on the four-hour and (or) hourly charts, and then sell with small targets in the area of 103.70. So far, for this currency pair, these are the thoughts and suggestions. Analysis of EUR/USD on January 13. Not everything is Trump's fault 2021-01-13  The wave pattern of the EUR/USD pair has already completed its five-wave form. Thus, we can now expect the start of a new section of downward trend. If the current assumption is right, then the quotes will further decline to the targets located around the 19th and 18th mark. However, it should be recalled that the demand for the US dollar in recent months has been very low, so the upward trend section of the trend might rather continue to be complicated.  At the same time, the wave pattern in the smaller time frame also indicates that the upward section of the trend is already done. The expected wave 5 in 5 managed to fully complete its form. Now, a successful attempt to break through the low of the expected wave 4 will indicate that the pair is ready to form the three wave sections of the downward trend. So far, everything is inclined to the beginning of a new part of the trend, which is perhaps a correction. In any case, the formation of three downward waves is expected. It's been six days since the Capitol attack, which is enough time for passions to subside. All participants in this significant event have already given their comments. However, it was not limited to just one comment. Despite the fact that Donald Trump had only two weeks to remain in office at that time, the Democrats decided that it was a great chance to try to impeach the US President. Now, the US Congress will vote to remove Mr. Trump on January 13, that is, today. If the Lower House of Congress approves the impeachment, then the final say will remain with the Upper House – the Senate, which has already saved Trump from impeachment once. Few people believe that at least 16 Republican senators will vote against Trump this time, who in any case will leave his post in a week. Thus, I think the whole impeachment process is just another drama. Moreover, US Vice President Mike Pence seems to have the same opinion. He refused to apply the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution, which allows him to remove the president from his duties. He believes that this course of action is not in the interests of the country or in accordance with our Constitution. Thus, the US vice president also understands perfectly that it is pointless to remove Trump now that he has only one week left to serve as president. From the point of view of technical analysis, the US dollar has temporarily stopped rising, but the current wave marking indicates at least one more downward wave that should be built. Thus, a new decline in the quotes' pair should be expected. Today, ECB's Chairman Christine Lagarde is scheduled to make a speech, which is likely to contain something important. Overall conclusion and recommendations: The EUR/USD pair is assumed to have completed the upward section again. At the moment, it is suggested to sell EUR/USD with targets near the level of 1.20 and 1.19 at every bearish signal of the MACD indicator. So far, everything does not look like a simple corrective wave, but rather the end of the upward trend. But will this extend? Trading idea for the EUR/USD pair 2021-01-13  As expected, the euro pulled back to 61.8% Fibonacci level, which opens the opportunity to instigate another decline in EUR / USD.  In fact, according to the daily chart, the quote has already formed a wave pattern (ABC), in which wave "A" is the downward move observed from January 7 to January 11. Given such a scenario, the best strategy is to open short positions from 1.22200 to 1.22400, the limit of which is 1.23, while the target is 1.21200. Of course, risks are needed to be monitored to avoid losing money. Trading is very precarious, but also profitable if the approach used is correct. For the above strategy, Price Action and Stop Hunting were used as trading methods. Good luck Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 13, 2021 2021-01-13  Overview: The EUR/USD pair has dropped sharply from the level of 1.2337 towards 1.2180. The price which placed at 1.2337 is acting as a daily pivot point. It should be noted that volatility is very high for that the EUR/USD pair is still moving between 1.2237 and 1.2133 in coming hours. Furthermore, the price has set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.2237 and 1.2279, which coincides with the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level respectively. Additionally, the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend. From this point, the EUR/USD pair is continuing in a bearish trend from the new resistance of 1.2237 and 1.2279. Thereupon, the price spot of 1.2237 and 1.2279 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, a possibility that the EUR/USD pair will have downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. For that the trend will indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.2237, sell below 1.2237 or 1.2279 with the first targets at 1.2133 (the double bottom is seen at 1.2133). If the EUR/USD pair succeeds to break through the bottom level of 1.2133 today, the market will decline further to 1.2073. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.2033 with a view to test the weekly support 3. However, the stop loss should be located above the level of 1.2349. Trading idea for the USD/JPY pair 2021-01-13  USD / JPY is currently retracing by 50%, after growing rapidly from January 6 to January 11. Taking this into account, now is the perfect time to open long positions, as such would surely instigate a price increase in the pair.  In fact, according to the daily chart, the quote has already formed a wave pattern (ABC), in which wave "A" is the upward movement observed in the past sessions. Therefore, today, long positions may be opened from 103.7-103.5, the limit of which is 103, while the targets are 104.4 and 104.7. But even if the dollar is expected to increase against other world currencies, traders still need to be careful not to overload the deposit when distributing volumes between instruments. Aside from that, risks are needed to be monitored to avoid losing money. Trading is very precarious, but also profitable if the approach used is correct. For the above strategy, Price Action and Stop Hunting were used as trading methods. Good luck Gold may return above $2000 mark amid inflation acceleration and falling dollar 2021-01-13 The rapid growth in the yield of US Treasury bonds and the associated strengthening of the US dollar dealt a serious blow to gold, but after the end of the auction of the Department of Treasury, the precious metal began to recover. Its medium-term prospects look optimistic against the backdrop of a potential acceleration of inflation due to large-scale fiscal stimulus, which means that the bulls on XAU/USD should not lose heart and use the correction to buy a cheaper asset. It would seem that the "blue wave" in the United States was supposed to be a joker for gold. At the end of 2020, it was actively growing on expectations that Democrats would gain control not only of the White House but also of the entire Congress. The reality was different. The trillions of dollars promised by Joe Biden have inflated the yield on US Treasury bonds due to the expectation of a large-scale issue of debt obligations. As a result, the attractiveness of US assets increased, and the USD index soared. Gold was in disgrace not only because of the dollar rising from the ashes, but also because of the rise in real bond rates. Dynamics of gold and US dollar 
Nevertheless, history shows that the increase in yields due to expectations of an increase in the supply of debt is most often temporary. Loans have been rising by leaps and bounds in recent years, but interest rates are near record lows. The fact that profitability went down after the $38 billion auction proves this. Yes, the demand was higher than its average values (bids were 2.47 times the size of the offer), yes, dealers got only 20% of the issue volume, but after the auction, gold was able to recover. Gold may be drawn in bright colors in the near future. The real yield on US Treasury bonds remains quite negative, the dollar is likely to continue to decline, and Joe Biden's plan for additional support for the US economy, which the Democrat expects to present to the general public on January 14, will further increase inflation expectations. The precious metal is traditionally perceived as the best hedge against inflation, so Standard Chartered is seriously counting on its return above $2000 per ounce during the first quarter. UBS believes the XAU/USD sell-off has gone too far and expects to see prices rise. The main risk for gold fans is the quick reaction of the Federal Reserve to the acceleration of the US economy than the markets currently assume. In December, CME derivatives signaled that the federal funds rate would not rise until 2024, but in early January, they expected it to rise by 50 basis points by the end of 2023. A number of FOMC officials talk about curtailing QE, which supports the US dollar and unnerves buyers of the precious metal. Technically, the Wolfe Wave pattern with targets near $1990 and $2060 per ounce is still relevant on the daily gold chart. A confident breakout of the pivot level at $1860, as well as dynamic resistance levels in the form of moving averages, should be used to form long positions. Gold, daily chart 
Evening review on EUR/USD for January 13, 2021 2021-01-13 
EURUSD The euro outlined the key levels for further direction selection: Buy from 1.2225. Sell from 1.2130. Stops at 45 points (in a 4-digit), profit is at least 100 points. EUR/USD analysis for January 13 2021 - Potential for the another downside movement towards 1.2137 2021-01-13 US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 8 January +16.7% vs +1.7% prior Prior +1.7% - Market index 965.2 vs 827.2 prior
- Purchase index 338.9 vs 313.8 prior
- Refinancing index 4,706.3 vs 3,917.6 prior
- 30-year mortgage rate 2.88% vs 2.86% prior
That is a major jump in mortgage activity to start the new year, with both purchases and refinancing seeing a significant boost. Again, this just reaffirms that the US housing market continues to hold up rather strongly in light of the virus crisis. Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR/USD, I found thatthere is the rejection of the key pivot level at 1,2227and there is potetnial for pottential downside movement towards 1,2137 and 1,2059. Stochastic oscillator is showing overbought condition and fresh bear cross, which is another sign for the downside continuation. 1-Day relative strength performance Finviz 
Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Corn and Wheat today and on the bottom Ethanol and Canola. EUR is negative for today, which is another sign for the downside movement. Key Levels: Resistance: 1,2227 Support levels:1,2137 and 1,2059. Analysis of Gold for January 13,.2021 - Potential for the another downside swing ttowards $1.819 and $1.770 2021-01-13 UK PM Johnson: I don't rule out tightening restrictions Comments by UK prime minister, Boris Johnson - These are early days to see impact of virus measures
- We keep restrictions under constant review
Although the vaccine rollout is underway, the rising death count and hospitalisations are still posing a challenge for the UK as of late. That will likely keep tighter restrictions in place and drag Q1 economic conditions, adding to the post-Brexit challenge.  Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that there is the rejection of the key pivot level at $1,860 and there is potential for potential downside movement towards $1,819 and $1,770. Stochastic oscillator is showing overbought condition and fresh bear cross, which is another sign for the downside continuation. 1-Day relative strength performance Finviz 
Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Corn and Wheat today and on the bottom Ethanol and Canola. Key Levels: Resistance: $1,860 Support levels:$1,819 and $1,770.
Author's today's articles: Pavel Vlasov  No data Ivan Aleksandrov  Ivan Aleksandrov Alexander Dneprovskiy  Graduated from Kiev State University of Economics. On Forex market since 2007. Started his work at Forex as a trader. Since 2008 is working as a currency analyst. Andrey Shevchenko  Andrey Shevchenko Mourad El Keddani  Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development).
Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch.
Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy. Igor Kovalyov  Igor Kovalyov was born on September 24, 1985. Igor graduated from Krasnoyarsk State University with a degree in Philology and Journalism. He has a wide experience as a newspaper and information agency correspondent. He got interested in financial markets in 2001. He also graduated from Moscow State University of Economics, Statistics, and Informatics (MESI) with a degree in Global Economics and then served as an analyst in an investment company. He has been working at InstaForex since 2014. Mihail Makarov  - Petar Jacimovic  Petar was born on July 08, 1989 in Serbia. Graduated from Economy University and after has worked as a currency analyst for large private investors. Petar has been involved in the world of finance since 2007. In this trading he specializes in Volume Price Action (volume background, multi Fibonacci zones, trend channels, supply and demand). He also writes the market analytical reviews for Forex forums and websites. Moreover Petar is forex teacher and has wide experience in tutoring and conducting webinars. Interests : finance, travelling, sports, music "The key to success is hard work"
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