| EUR/USD: US inflation holds the dollar 2021-01-13  The US dollar maintains a relative balance in anticipation of the release of data on the current inflation rate. Analysts believe that only serious changes in inflation can affect the indicated currency. On January 13, the market expects information on US inflation. This indicator was previously considered one of the key ones, but currently, traders and investors are more closely monitoring Nonfarms. At the same time, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, emphasized that the regulator allows inflation to rise above 2%. It is really growing, which is now at 1.6%. This coincides with experts' forecasts and market expectations. Many analysts do not exclude the acceleration of inflation in the United States. Based on five-year government bond spreads, the current expected inflation rate is 2.06%. Experts think that the US dollar's current weakening is due to the growing inflationary expectations. Economists admit that annual inflation will accelerate to 1.3% from the previous 1.2%. But if consumer inflation slows down, Treasury yields will decline and in turn, the USD will be able to strengthen. Experts believe that the Fed's "dovish" rhetoric, which provides for easing monetary policy, is negative for the national currency. Stephen Roach, a Yale professor and former Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley, agrees with this. He is sure that the large-scale stimulus expected from the US Congress could provoke an increase in inflation. However, the expert supports the need to increase fiscal stimulus in the United States due to the tense economic situation caused by COVID-19. According to S. Roach, the current coronavirus restrictions ended the V-shaped recovery of the US economy. This can result in a dollar's collapse by 20% in 2021 amid the growing deficit of the US state budget and the policy of near-zero rates, which the Fed adheres to. The current situation weakens the position of the US dollar. Earlier, experts recorded its slight growth, but it has now stopped. This morning, the EUR/USD pair is trading near the range of 1.2208-1.2209, which was previously moving in the range of 1.2150 - 1.2210. So, analysts allow further decline of the classic pair.  According to experts, the expected publication of data on US inflation will be decisive for the US currency, which will set the vector for its further dynamics. It is possible that the current inflation data will strengthen the existing trend for the weakening of the dollar. EUR/USD: plan for the European session on January 13. COT reports (analysis of yesterday's deals). Euro sellers retreat from the market. Bulls aim to return 1.2224 2021-01-13 To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: Two signals to sell the euro appeared yesterday morning. In my forecast for the first half of the day, I advised you to open short positions on the euro after an update of resistance at 1.2174, which happened. But if the bears started to become active on the initial test, and the entry point was quite inconvenient here, then returning to the 1.2174 level for the second time resulted in creating a more practical signal to sell the euro. The bulls were able to surpass 1.2174 closer to the middle of the US session, but it was not possible to wait for a convenient buy signal and test this level from top to bottom, as a result of which I missed the deal. 
The bulls managed to reach resistance at 1.2224, and today they need to surpass this range in the first half of the day. Testing it from top to bottom will lead to creating a signal to open new long positions, with the goal of pushing EUR/USD to the resistance area of 1.2252. The 1.2281 high is still the long-term goal, where I recommend taking profits. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak in the first half of the day, and she can talk about the prospects for interest rates, which is likely to weigh on the euro. If this happens, and the single currency falls, then I recommend taking your time with long positions. The optimal scenario for opening longs is when the pair falls to the support area of 1.2179, where a false breakout will be a signal to buy the euro. There are also moving averages that play on the side of euro buyers. The lower boundary of the new rising channel can also be created in this range. If bulls are not active, then I recommend opening long positions immediately for a rebound from the low of 1.2138, counting an upward correction of 20-30 points within the day. To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: Sellers of the euro need to protect resistance at 1.2224. Forming a false breakout there in the first half of the day will result in creating a signal to open short positions in the euro. As I mentioned above, Lagarde's speech is important. In the event of such a scenario, we can expect EUR/USD to fall to the support area of 1.2179, for which a real struggle will unfold. Strong US inflation data can bring back the demand for the dollar. However, being able to settle below 1.2179 and testing it from the bottom up will open a direct path for EUR/USD to the lows of 1.2138 and 1.2083, where I recommend taking profits. If sellers are not active in the 1.2224 area in the first half of the day, then it is best to abandon shorts and wait for an update of the new resistance at 1.2252. I recommend selling the euro immediately for a rebound after testing the high of 1.2281, counting on a downward correction of 20-30 points within the day. 
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for January 5 recorded an increase in both long and short positions. Buyers of risky assets continue to believe in a bullish trend despite the euro's decline earlier this year, which will make it possible for new major players to enter the market. News on the ongoing vaccinations against the first strain of coronavirus in Europe will also support euro buyers. Pressure on the euro will come from isolation measures and quarantines in several European countries. Thus, long non-commercial positions rose from 222,443 to 224,832, while short non-commercial positions jumped from 78,541 to 81,841. Due to the larger increase in short positions, the total non-commercial net position decreased from 143,902 to 142,991 weeks earlier. The insignificant change in the delta at the beginning of the year is unlikely to indicate a change in the tactics of euro buyers, who count on bringing back the single currency's growth after the abolition of quarantine measures in the EU countries. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an attempt by euro buyers to reverse the downward trend. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2235 area will increase pressure on the euro. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator at 1.2130. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
GBP/USD: plan for the European session on January 13. COT reports (analysis of yesterday's deals). Pound returned to the year's highs after the Bank of England refused to introduce negative interest rates 2021-01-13 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: Yesterday morning, the bulls went beyond the 1.3531 level and settled there, as a result of which a signal to buy the pound was created. The chart clearly shows how the bears' attempts to return to the 1.3531 area were unsuccessful. To be fair, those who missed this trade did the right thing, in fact, the 1.3531 level was not tested from top to bottom. As expected, the pound stopped rising in the 1.3594 area, where the bears created a sell signal, thereby forming a false breakout there. However, this did not lead to a major sell-off, and returning and being able to settle above 1.3594 closer to the middle of the US session pushed GBP/USD to rise to a high of 1.3661, where I recommended taking profits. 
The pound sharply increased after news that the Bank of England abandoned the idea of resorting to negative interest rates due to their negative impact on the English banking system. Now, the bulls will initially aim to settle above this year's high at 1.3701, which may lead to removing a number of stop orders. Such a scenario will only push the pound to a larger upward trend in areas like 1.3750 and 1.3803, where I recommend taking profits. If we don't see active purchases after updating the high of 1.3701, then it is better to take your time with long positions. A more optimal scenario is a downward correction to the support area of 1.3649, where a false breakout creates a signal to enter the market. If bulls are not active, then I recommend that you postpone long positions until a larger support at 1.3590 has been updated, which was formed yesterday morning. There are also moving averages, so you can open long positions immediately on the rebound, counting on an upward correction of 30-40 points within the day. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: Pressure on the British pound will depend on whether sellers are active around this year's high. The momentum for growth may quickly come to an end, since the situation in the UK economy has not improved in any way since a lockdown and quarantine were introduced at the end of 2020. Bears will try to prevent GBP/USD from rising above the resistance of 1.3701, but forming a false breakout there in the first half of the day will be a signal to open short positions, and it aims to create a downward correction so that the pair can reach intermediate support at 1.3649, where buyers of the pound will become active during the initial test. An important task is to settle below this range, testing it from the bottom up creates a convenient entry point into short positions, which will quickly pull down GBP/USD to a low of 1.3590, where I recommend taking profits. If the bears ignore resistance at 1.3701, and since we have important US inflation data today that can potentially weaken the dollar's position, then it is best to hold back from opening short positions until highs around 1.3750 have been updated, or sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from the resistance of 1.3803, counting on a downward correction of 30-40 points within the day. 
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for January 5 recorded a slight decline in interest in the British pound, but this does not affect the overall picture. Long non-commercial positions decreased from 37,550 to 35,526. At the same time, short non-commercial positions remained practically unchanged and only increased from 31,518 to 31,861. As a result, the non-commercial net position, although it decreased, remained positive and reached 3,665 against 6,032 a week earlier. All this suggests that traders continue to bet on the strengthening of the pound, even in the face of the new Covid-19 strain, for which there is no vaccine yet. The demand for the pound is limited by quarantine measures in the UK, which will sooner or later be canceled after the infection stabilizes. Additional stimulus from the Bank of England, which economists will soon talk about, may also somewhat smooth out the upward trend in the pound. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the pound's succeeding growth. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the indicator around 1.3710 will lead to a new wave of growth for the pound. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator at 1.3570. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Trading plan for EUR/USD on January 13. The euro is starting to trade upwards again. 2021-01-13 
COVID-19 cases grew again yesterday, particularly in the US and the UK. At the same time, economic lockdown is still in place in Europe. Aside from that, vaccination has also slowed in most countries. At the moment, less than 2% of the population have been vaccinated. 
EUR/USD - the euro began to trade upwards again. Open long positions from 1.2175. Open short positions from 1.2130. Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for January 13, 2021 2021-01-13 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has retraced 38% of the last wave down made after the Falling Wedge price pattern breakout. The bounce from the local low seen at the level of 1.2132 has hit the level of 1.2215 and is currently trading around this level. The momentum remains neutral to positive, so in a case of another wave up the next target is seen at the level of 1.2241 (50% Fibonacci retracement). Please notice the market conditions remains oversold, so in a case of a further upwards developments the key target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.2284. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2446 WR2 - 1.2395 WR1 - 1.2293 Weekly Pivot - 1.2204 WS1 - 1.2134 WS2 - 1.2082 WS3 - 1.1981 Trading Recommendations: Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up. This means any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1609 is broken. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555. The market made the Falling Wedge trend reversal pattern around the levels of 1.2200 - 1.2300 and now the corrective cycle might have started. Any violation of the level of 1.2154 supports the trend change/corrective cycle scenario. 
Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for January 13, 2021 2021-01-13 
Patience pays off and GBP/JPY is finally on the move again towards the 142.72 target. The resistance at 142.70 could cause a temporary minor set-back, but ultimately we expect the 142.70 target to be broken for a continuation higher towards 156.61 as the next major upside target. Ideally support at 141.22 will be able to protect the downside as GBP/JPY gathers upside momentum as starts accelerating, but only an unexpected break below key-support at 140.31 will cause a revision of our bullish outlook. R3:142.72 R2: 142.35 R1: 142.03 Pivot: 141.51 S1: 141.22 S2: 140.83 S3: 140.31 Trading recommendation: We are long GBP from 140.71 and we have moved our stop higher to 140.25 Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for January 13, 2021 2021-01-13 Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair had broken out from the descending channel after the bounce from the lower channel line around the level of 1.3449. The price has hit the level of 1.3691, which is 2 pips away from the recent swing high. The momentum is positive and the market is bouncing from the oversold conditions, so traders should expect the bounce to continue towards the next target seen at the level of 1.3779. The weekly time frame trend remains up. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.3811 WR2 - 1.3757 WR1 - 1.3642 Weekly Pivot - 1.3588 WS1 - 1.3474 WS2 - 1.3415 WS3 - 1.3307 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend and the trigger for this trend was the breakout above the level or 1.3518 on the weekly time frame chart. The recent top was made at the level of 1.3702. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. 
Indicator analysis. Daily review for the EUR/USD currency pair on 13/01/2021 2021-01-13 Trend analysis (Figure 1). Today, from the level of 1.2206 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle), the market will try to continue moving up to reach the historical resistance level at 1.2234 (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, continue to work up with the target of 1.2274 which is a rollback level of 85.4% (yellow dashed line). 
Figure 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: - Indicator Analysis – up
- Fibonacci Levels – up
- Volumes – up
- Candle Analysis – up
- Trend Analysis – up
- Bollinger Bands – up
- Weekly Chart – up
General Conclusion: Today, the price may continue to move up to reach the historical resistance level of 1.2234 (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, continue to work up with a target of 1.2274 which is a rollback level of 85.4% (yellow dotted line). Alternative Scenario: The price will move up and reach the historical resistance level of 1.2234 (blue dotted line). After testing this level, work down with a target of 1.2172 which is a rollback level of 23.6% (red dotted line). Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 13, 2021 2021-01-13 
EUR/JPY requires patience as it continues to trade sideways, but we expect that support at 126.49 and more importantly that support at 125.94 will be able to protect the downside for a clear break above minor resistance at 127.46 towards 130.10 as the next minor target, but ultimately much higher levels remains expected after the major triangle consolidation completed back in May 2020. This formation call for much higher levels in the months and years to come and ultimately a break above the July 2008 high at 169.96. R3: 130.10 R2: 129.27 R1: 128.48 Pivot: 127.03 S1: 126.49 S2: 125.94 S3: 124.80 Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 126.25 with our stop placed at 125.70 Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the GBP/USD currency pair 01/13/21 2021-01-13 Trend Analysis (Figure 1). Today, the market will try to continue going up from the level of 1.3660 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) in order to reach the upper fractal of 1.3702 (red dotted line) at the daily candle from 01/04/2021. If this level is tested, there will be a further upward movement with the target of 1.3812 in the upper limit of the Bollinger line indicator (black dotted line). 
Figure 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: General Conclusion: Today, the price will try to continue going up from the level of 1.3660 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) in order to reach the upper fractal of 1.3702 (red dotted line) at the daily candle from 01/04/2021. If this level is tested, there will be a further upward movement with the target of 1.3812 in the upper limit of the Bollinger line indicator (black dotted line). Unlikely scenario: the price will try to continue going up from the level of 1.3660 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target of reaching the upper fractal of 1.3702 (red dotted line) at the daily candle from 01/04/2021. In case of testing this level, there will be a further downward movement with the target of 1.3576 - 13 is the average EMA (yellow thin line). EUR/USD. Market is bored with Democrats' predictable actions 2021-01-13 The US dollar index returned below the 90th mark during the Asian session on Wednesday, which indicated the end of the dollar rally. Yesterday, market interest in the US currency began to fade, despite the continuous political tension in Washington. It should be recalled that the Democrats initiated the US president's impeachment by publishing a resolution accusing Donald Trump yesterday. However, traders actually ignored this fact. They also ignored the statement of the US Vice President, who officially refused to apply the 25th amendment to the country's Constitution today. All this suggests that the market's focus is shifting from political events in the US to macroeconomic factors. But the US dollar does not feel so confident in this direction, especially before today's publication of data on the US inflation growth. The second factor that weakens the dollar is the decline in Treasury yields, in particular, 10-year Treasury bonds. 
Amid such trends, the euro/dollar pair managed to return to the area of 1.22 level, but it is unlikely to further rise. Buyers recovered some of the lost positions, but failed to break through the resistance level of 1.2230 (middle line of the BB indicator on daily chart), stagnant while waiting for information impulses. On the other hand, political factors have clearly lost their impact, although the unfolding events on Capitol Hill are naturally historic: Apparently, Donald Trump will become the first president in US history to be impeached twice. However, the market remains calm with this heated political tension in the Congress. Traders weakening mood can be explained by the predictability of further political events. The Capitol attack not only shocked the global community, but also the currency markets, which reacted with a surge in anti-risk sentiment. This made the markets alarmed and nervous; hence, the growth of the US currency. However, the current situation is very different. Politicians worked out the political scenario, where each following move is predictable. As an example, the Lower House of Congress approved a resolution during the Asian session on Wednesday, which urges the White House and US Vice President Mike Pence to remove Donald Trump from office. The resolution was supported by 223 congressmen, while 205 voted against. But Pence rejected it, reminding the Democrats that the 45th president's term ends in just a week. In this case, both sides acted absolutely predictably, so they did not provoke any unrest in the currency market. The situation is similar with impeachment. The Democrats will use this until the end, although it will clearly fail. The point is not only Congressmen have no time to complete the procedure before the end of Trump's term, but they also lack at least 17 votes to approve a guilty verdict (Democrats in the Senate have only 50 out of 67 necessary). At the same time, it is most likely assumed that the House of Representatives will officially launch the impeachment process today by voting for the corresponding resolution (Trump will become the first US president to undergo the procedure twice). Despite this unusual situation, the US dollar is unlikely to benefit from it. Thus, it is possible that the market will ignore this vote as it ignored the vote on the application of the 25th Amendment. Thus, dollar bulls have lost their foothold in the form of political instability in the States. In my opinion, the national currency will go on the defensive until January 20, when Joe Biden's inauguration will take place. During his ceremonial speech, the 46th president is likely to repeat his speech that the US economy will receive trillions of dollars as additional aid. In this case, the Treasury yield will increase again, pulling the dollar with it. 
On the other hand, macroeconomic reports will guide the US dollar in the medium term. Initially, we are talking about the inflation data. Today, data on the growth of the consumer price index for December will be released. However, weak forecasts are unlikely to support dollar bulls: the general index should slightly grow, and on the contrary, the core index should significantly slow down. If both components come out in the sell area, EUR/USD buyers will have a reason for further recovery. From a technical viewpoint, the price on the daily chart is located on the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, and the trend indicators have not formed any clear and unclear signals. If the pair breaks through the level of 1.2230, this will indicate the priority of the upward direction. In this case, it will be possible to consider long positions with the first target at 1.2300 (local high) and the main target at 1.2330 (upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart). Forecast for EUR/USD, January 13. COT report. Bearish sentiment on EUR weakens. Bulls ready to push EUR up 2021-01-13 EUR/USD – 1H. Good afternoon, dear traders! On January 12, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal pushing the euro higher versus the US dollar. So, the pair resumed its upward movement consolidating over the downward trend line. Thus, the overall sentiment is now bullish. The pair may rise to the correction levels of 50.0% - 1.2240 and 38.2% - 1.2266. Currently, investors are closely following political news from the US. Donald Trump is facing serious accusations. Once he called the attempts of his opponents to replace him " the single greatest witch hunt of a politician in American history!" In his last interview, President Donald Trump refused to take any responsibility for last week's violence at the US Capitol on January 6. He said that he did not call anyone to violence and that social networks made a serious mistake by blocking his accounts. He has also warned Democrats, who launched impeachment proceedings a couple of days ago, saying that their actions pose a new threat for the United States. As usual, no explanation was provided by Donald Trump. In Texas, where he personally inspected the wall on the border with Mexico, he also said that the new impeachment is a continuation of the old "witch hunt". Donald Trump said that he did not fuel the mob. His statements in social networks that allegedly sparked the riot on the Capitol were absolutely free of any calls for protests. Regarding the actions of Twitter and Facebook, which blocked Trump's accounts forever, Trump said that this is a serious mistake. There is no other news, especially economic ones. The US inflation report will be released today. EUR/USD – 4H. On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair is trading under the ascending trend line. Thus, the sentiment has changed to bearish. The pair may continue to drop to the correction level of 161.8% - 1.2027. On the chart, there is no divergence yet. However, on the H4 chart, the opposite situation is unfolding. The pair's quotes have consolidated above the descending trend line. For now, I recommend paying more attention to the H4 chart. EUR/USD – Daily. On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair is recovering to the correction level of 323.6% - 1.2079. If the pair rebounds from this level, the euro will gain momentum. It may grow to the Fibonacci level of 423.6% - 1.2496. EUR/USD – Weekly. On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair consolidated above the "narrowing triangle", which may signal further growth of the pair in the long term. Economic calendar: On January 12, the EU and the US again did not provide any economic reports. Nevertheless, trading on this day was quite active. EU- ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech (09-00 GMT). US- Consumer Price Index (13-30 GMT). On January 13, ECB President Lagarde will make her first speech this year. The US will unveil inflation data. The Us inflation report is sure to have a great impact on markets. COT report (Commitments of traders): The activity of major players in the first New Year's week was sluggish. According to the latest COT report of January 5, the non-commercial traders opened 2,072 long deals and 3,078 short ones. That is approximately the same amount. The commercial traders did likewise when it comes to a total number of long and short deals. Firstly, these figures are very low, and secondly, they do not indicate any particular trend. It seems that speculators in the first New Year's week enjoyed the holiday avoiding trading. Thus, there are no special changes following the results of the next week. The mood of traders remains bullish. A couple of months ago, a new downtrend appeared but it did not develop due to the weakness of the US dollar. Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations: On Wednesday, I recommend opening loon deals on the euro with the target level of 1.2240 and 1.2266 on the hourly chart if it consolidates above the level of 61.8% - 1.2214. Short deals on the pair can be opened at a target level of 1.2131 if the pair consolidates under the level of 76.4% - 1.2182 on the hourly chart. TERMS: "Non-commercial" - large market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, and big investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit but to ensure current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. Forecast for EUR/USD, January 13. COT report. Bearish sentiment on EUR weakens. Bulls ready to push EUR up 2021-01-13 EUR/USD – 1H. Good afternoon, dear traders! On January 12, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal pushing the euro higher versus the US dollar. So, the pair resumed its upward movement consolidating over the downward trend line. Thus, the overall sentiment is now bullish. The pair may rise to the correction levels of 50.0% - 1.2240 and 38.2% - 1.2266. Currently, investors are closely following political news from the US. Donald Trump is facing serious accusations. Once he called the attempts of his opponents to replace him " the single greatest witch hunt of a politician in American history!" In his last interview, President Donald Trump refused to take any responsibility for last week's violence at the US Capitol on January 6. He said that he did not call anyone to violence and that social networks made a serious mistake by blocking his accounts. He has also warned Democrats, who launched impeachment proceedings a couple of days ago, saying that their actions pose a new threat for the United States. As usual, no explanation was provided by Donald Trump. In Texas, where he personally inspected the wall on the border with Mexico, he also said that the new impeachment is a continuation of the old "witch hunt". Donald Trump said that he did not fuel the mob. His statements in social networks that allegedly sparked the riot on the Capitol were absolutely free of any calls for protests. Regarding the actions of Twitter and Facebook, which blocked Trump's accounts forever, Trump said that this is a serious mistake. There is no other news, especially economic ones. The US inflation report will be released today. EUR/USD – 4H. On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair is trading under the ascending trend line. Thus, the sentiment has changed to bearish. The pair may continue to drop to the correction level of 161.8% - 1.2027. On the chart, there is no divergence yet. However, on the H4 chart, the opposite situation is unfolding. The pair's quotes have consolidated above the descending trend line. For now, I recommend paying more attention to the H4 chart. EUR/USD – Daily. On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair is recovering to the correction level of 323.6% - 1.2079. If the pair rebounds from this level, the euro will gain momentum. It may grow to the Fibonacci level of 423.6% - 1.2496. EUR/USD – Weekly. On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair consolidated above the "narrowing triangle", which may signal further growth of the pair in the long term. Economic calendar: On January 12, the EU and the US again did not provide any economic reports. Nevertheless, trading on this day was quite active. EU- ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech (09-00 GMT). US- Consumer Price Index (13-30 GMT). On January 13, ECB President Lagarde will make her first speech this year. The US will unveil inflation data. The Us inflation report is sure to have a great impact on markets. COT report (Commitments of traders): The activity of major players in the first New Year's week was sluggish. According to the latest COT report of January 5, the non-commercial traders opened 2,072 long deals and 3,078 short ones. That is approximately the same amount. The commercial traders did likewise when it comes to a total number of long and short deals. Firstly, these figures are very low, and secondly, they do not indicate any particular trend. It seems that speculators in the first New Year's week enjoyed the holiday avoiding trading. Thus, there are no special changes following the results of the next week. The mood of traders remains bullish. A couple of months ago, a new downtrend appeared but it did not develop due to the weakness of the US dollar. Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations: On Wednesday, I recommend opening loon deals on the euro with the target level of 1.2240 and 1.2266 on the hourly chart if it consolidates above the level of 61.8% - 1.2214. Short deals on the pair can be opened at a target level of 1.2131 if the pair consolidates under the level of 76.4% - 1.2182 on the hourly chart. TERMS: "Non-commercial" - large market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, and big investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit but to ensure current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 13, 2021 2021-01-13  Overview : The GBP/USD pair managed to settle above the support at 1.3644 and is trying to settle above the next resistance at 1.3699. The GBP/USD pair has climbed along a steep, upward-sloping support channel since last week, the pair rose at an even more ambitious incline. Price is testing minor resistance at 1.3699 (100% Fibonacci retracement, bullish wave bar harmonic formation, top). We expect to see a strong reaction off this level to push price up towards 1.3699 before 1.3644 support (78% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support). RSI is seeing major support above 60% where we expect further upside movement from. Moreover, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Profit target reached perfectly once again, prepare for a bounce from the area of 1.3600 - 1.3644. On the One-hour chart : Today, The GBP/USD pair will continue rising from the level of 1.3644 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 1.3644 which represents the daily pivot point on the H4 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the GBP/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.3644. So, buy above the level of 1.3644 with the first target at 1.3744 in order to test the daily resistance 1. The level of 1.3744 is a good place to take profits. If the trend is able to break the level of 1.3744, then the market will call for a strong bullish market towards the objective of 1.3777 today. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1..604, a further decline to 1.3450 can occur. It would indicate a bearish market.  Forex forecast 01/13/2021 on USD/CHF, EUR/GBP and Crude Oil from Sebastian Seliga 2021-01-13 Let's take a look at the technical picture of USD/CHF, EUR/GBP and Crude Oil at the daily time frame chart.
Author's today's articles: l Kolesnikova  text Maxim Magdalinin  In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Mihail Makarov  - Sebastian Seliga  Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis. Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Torben Melsted  Born in November 1962. Graduated from CBS, got Diploma in Finance. Began trading on Forex in 1986 and since that time held various positions such as advising clients, hedging client flows on FX and commodity markets. Also worked for major corporations as Financial Risk Manager. Uses Elliott wave analysis in combination with classic technical analysis, and has been using a Calmar Ratio of 5.0 for over 3 years. Has his own blog, where he uses Elliott wave and technical analysis on all financial markets. Sergey Belyaev  Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Irina Manzenko  Irina Manzenko Grigory Sokolov  Born 1 January, 1986. In 2008 graduated from Kiev Institute of Business and Technology with "Finance and Credit" as a major. Since 2008 has studied the behavior of various currency pairs and their correlation on Forex. In his works and trading practice he uses candlestick analysis and Fibonacci technique. Since 2009 has written analytical reviews and articles which are published on popular Internet resources. Interests: music, computers and cookery. "Out of five deadly sins of business and as a rule, the most widespread, excessive striving to get profit is the worst". P. Drucker Mourad El Keddani  Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development).
Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch.
Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy.
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A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda
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