| EUR/USD: ECB released positive forecasts for the EU economy, but other banks believe the opposite. 2021-01-14 Demand for the euro began to decline yesterday, after the speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde, even though it was more about the EU banking system and profit forecasts. Lagarde also said that despite the spread of the coronavirus and the resumption of quarantine, the European Central Bank's expectations for economic growth in the eurozone remain very positive. In fact, according to Lagarde, many of the uncertainties that previously darkened the economic outlook have now cleared up. In particular, these are the US elections, Brexit trade deal and vaccinations in the EU. At the same time, the ECB president said the monetary policy and the support that it provides to the entire system will continue at the same levels. Therefore, the Central Bank forecasts the EU economy to grow by 3.9% this 2021, especially if the government finally lifts the ongoing lockdowns. According to Lagarde, the start of this year will be more positive than previously thought. But other banks, on the contrary, have downgraded their forecasts, which made many investors nervous. In a recent report, JPMorgan said they project the EU economy to drop by 1% in the first quarter, while UBS said they expect the economy to fall by 0.4%. Goldman Sachs also stated that they predict a small reduction with great uncertainty and risks. In any case, the ECB will meet again next week, and during which they will discuss the future of the monetary policy. Today though, the bank will release a report regarding the extension of the emergency bond purchase program, which traders will closely monitor. Actually, Lagarde already mentioned this issue yesterday, where she said that if the new aid package is too large, then it is not necessary to use it in full. But if it is insufficient, she said the bond purchase program could again be increased, which led to a decline in the European currency. Lagarde also mentioned that the ECB will closely monitor the growth of the euro against the dollar, as such will put pressure on inflation since it would reduce import costs. Regarding inflation, the German Central Bank released its forecast yesterday, which is a rise of about 3.1% over the next 12 months. However, this is only the average forecast of the economists surveyed. All in all, the Bundesbank predicts that inflation in Germany will rise to 1.8% this year, from -0.7% at the end of 2020. The main driver of growth will be the increase in gasoline prices, after the introduction of the emissions tax, as well as the expiration of the temporary VAT reduction, which the government resorted to last summer.  As for the United States, official reports said its CPI rose by 0.4% in December, after climbing by 0.2% in November. According to the US Department of Labor, the main increase was caused by the 8.4% jump in gasoline prices, as well as the 0.4% rise in food prices.  Its underlying index, which does not take into account volatile categories, also grew by 0.1%. As for the annual growth rate of consumer prices, it remained at 1.6%.  This slowdown in core inflation suggests that the Fed is unlikely to resort to the highly-anticipated change in the monetary policy. But if a new fiscal stimulus is adopted by the government, the US Central Bank may consider a change in order to prevent the overheating of the economy. With regards to the EUR/USD pair, a bearish movement is expected to persist in the market. In particular, if the quote drops below 1.2180, the euro has a very high chance of collapsing to 1.2130, and then to 1.2080 and 1.2010. But if the upcoming US data turns out weaker than expected, EUR/USD could climb towards 1.2225. Technical recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on January 14 2021-01-14 EUR/USD  The pair retested the levels it overcame and returned below the border of the all-time level of 1.2170. Bears' weakness might result in the appearance of consolidation instead of an active and effective continuation of the decline. In this case, the levels of the daily cross (1.2241 - 1.2204 - 1.2170) will provide attraction, strengthened by the historical level (1.2170). If this current attraction is broken through, it will open the way to the next support levels – weekly levels (1.2075 - 1.1984) and a daily cloud.  The previous corrective rise did not develop. The pair returned to the key levels, which are located at 1.2173 (central pivot level) and 1.2195 (weekly long-term trend) today. As a result, the bearish traders are in favor again. The support for the classic pivot levels (1.2123 - 1.2090 - 1.2040) act as pivot points for the resumption of the intraday decline. A consolidation above the key resistances (1.2173-95) and a reversal of the weekly long-term trend will help change the current balance of power in the hourly time frame. We can note the resistances of the classic pivot levels at 1.2206 - 1.2256 - 1.2289. GBP/USD  The expected Chinkou divergence in the daily time frame is formed with a minimum divergence of the highs, so this is more of a warning than a call to action. Currently, the bulls lack enough strength for a full and effective continuation of the trend. At the same time, the opponent needs confirmation and some additional incentive to turn the situation around. The main pivot points remain in place today. On one hand, the resistances at 1.3703 - 1.3904 are important for the bulls, while on the other hand, overcoming the supports at 1.3577 - 1.3486 - 1.3418 - 1.3350 is important for the bears.  The pair in the hourly time frame is moving in the attraction zone of the central pivot level (1.3648) for quite some time. The loss of the level, a consolidation below the weekly long-term trend (1.3584) and a reversal of the moving average, will lead to a change in the balance of forces, providing advantages to the bears. In this case, further downward targets can be noted at the supports of the classic pivot levels (1.3559 and 1.3508). In turn, if we maintain the key resistances and update the high (1.3703), it will allow us to consider bullish prospects. They are located today at 1.3737 (R2) and 1.3775 (R3). Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classical), Moving Average (120) Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for January 14, 2020 2021-01-14 
After a nice push higher GBP/JPY is currently in a small consolidation before the next impulsive push higher towards 142.72 and ultimately above here too for a continuation higher to 147.96 as the next major upside target. Key-support remain seen at 140.31, but we doubt that support at 141.24 will be broken if tested. R3: 142.72 R2: 142.35 R1: 142.03 Pivot: 141.55 S1: 141.24 S2: 140.93 S3: 140.31 Trading recommendation: We are long GBP from 140.71 with our stop placed at 140.25 Trading idea for Silver 2021-01-14  As we all know, the movement of silver usually correlates with the movement of gold. However, with regards to the recent plunge of the yellow metal in the market, which is used by many traders to gain long positions, analysts believe that it will not be the same for silver, as apparently, the metal's decline is not nearing its end yet. In fact, it is only starting.  To add to that, silver has a very high target level, which is 21.6. In fact, if we look at the daily chart, we will see that the quote has formed a wave pattern (ABC), wherein wave "A" is the downward movement last January 6-8. Taking this into account, it would be best to work for a fall, following the strategy presented in the picture above. As for long positions, it would be profitable to open them from the 61% and 50% retracement levels. Then, the target level should be 21.6. Of course, this would be relevant only until silver trades below $ 27. At the same time, it would be best to avoid building up long positions in gold. Also, risks are needed to be monitored to prevent any losses. Trading is very precarious, but also profitable if the approach used is correct. For the above strategy, Price Action and Stop Hunting were used as trading methods. Good luck! Technical analysis EUR/USD for January 14, 2021 2021-01-14 
EUR/USD remains in a uptrend, but we see a clear loss of upside momentum indicating a possible completion of the uptrend in the weeks ahead. We continue to look for one more rally to new highs closer to 1.2457 before the uptrend finally runs out of steam and a larger decline is seen. Short-term, we could see EUR/USD move a little bit deeper closer to the 1.2045 - 1.2080 support-area before the final move to new highs. Remember the trend and patience are your friends EUR/USD analysis for January 14 2021 - Bracketing market and potenttial for the rally towards 1.2168 2021-01-14 Germany's Altmaier: German economic growth this year likely weaker than expected Government will continue strong response to pandemic - But measures can only be temporary
- We will do everything in our means to guarantee this will be the a recovery year
- But economy likely to grow less than previously expected this year
Given how the virus restrictions are still likely to stay in place throughout Q1 and potentially until April, that does chip away at much of the optimism towards the end of last year. This also adds to headwinds for the euro and European assets as the virus situation across the region still warrants more lockdown measures for the time being. The recent political drama in Italy only adds to the list so far to kick start the new year. Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR/USD, I found that there is test of the balance low based on the hourly time-frame, which might be the condition for the rejection. 1-Day relative strength performance Finviz 
Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Ethanol and Lumber today and on the bottom Canola nad Lean Hogs. EUR is slightly negative today butt with no strong momentum. Key Levels: Resistance: 1,2167 Support level: 1,2135 Analysis of Gold for January 14,.2021 - Rejection of the main pivot support at $1.827 and potential for the rally into the $1.851 and $1.860 2021-01-14 CB: PEPP more efficient than a rate cut in the current pandemic conditions All members agreed that additional support was needed - Uncertainty remains high and positive sentiment could erode quickly
- It was widely considered appropriate and proportional to increase the horizon of net purchases under PEPP
- Risks of an unanchoring of inflation expectations were salient
- Some argument were also made in favour of a larger PEPP envelope
- Concerns were voiced over risks related to developments in the exchange rate
Besides more suggestions that ECB policymakers are keeping a watchful eye on the euro, the discussion on PEPP was largely in line with what was reported last month. All in all, there isn't much here at first glance to suggest a change in the ECB narrative for now. 
Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that there is test and reject of the key pivot support level at the price of $1,827, which is good sign for the further rally. 1-Day relative strength performance Finviz 
Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Ethanol and Lumber today and on the bottom Canola nad Lean Hogs. Key Lvels: Resistance: $1,581 and $1,860 Support level: $1,827 Evening review on EUR/USD for January 14, 2021 2021-01-14 
EUR/USD Buy from 1.2225. Sell from 1.2130.
Author's today's articles: Pavel Vlasov  No data Zhizhko Nadezhda  Graduated from Irkutsk State University. Having acquainted with Forex market in 2008, followed the courses in the International Academy of Stock Exchange Trading. The agenda was so exiting that she moved to St. Petersburg in order to get professional education. Obtained a diploma of the retraining course on the discipline Exchange market and stock market issues, defended the graduation paper with distinction on the subject "Modern technical indicators as the basis of the trading system". At the moment obtains a master degree in International Banking Institute on specialty Financial markets and investments. Apart from trading is occupied with development of trading systems and formalization of the working strategies using Ichimoku indicator. At the moment is working on the book dedicated to the peculiarities of Ichimoku indicator and its operating methods. Interests: yoga, literature, travelling and photograph. "You can only get smarter by playing a smarter opponent" Basics of Chess play, 1883 "Successful people change by themselves, the others are changed by life" Jim Rohn Torben Melsted  Born in November 1962. Graduated from CBS, got Diploma in Finance. Began trading on Forex in 1986 and since that time held various positions such as advising clients, hedging client flows on FX and commodity markets. Also worked for major corporations as Financial Risk Manager. Uses Elliott wave analysis in combination with classic technical analysis, and has been using a Calmar Ratio of 5.0 for over 3 years. Has his own blog, where he uses Elliott wave and technical analysis on all financial markets. Andrey Shevchenko  Andrey Shevchenko Petar Jacimovic  Petar was born on July 08, 1989 in Serbia. Graduated from Economy University and after has worked as a currency analyst for large private investors. Petar has been involved in the world of finance since 2007. In this trading he specializes in Volume Price Action (volume background, multi Fibonacci zones, trend channels, supply and demand). He also writes the market analytical reviews for Forex forums and websites. Moreover Petar is forex teacher and has wide experience in tutoring and conducting webinars. Interests : finance, travelling, sports, music "The key to success is hard work" Mihail Makarov  -
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