| | | | | |  | | By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver | Presented by The Great Courses Plus | Editor's Note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services' morning newsletter, which is delivered to our subscribers each morning at 6 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro. | | | Welcome to jobs day — November jobs report out at 8:30 a.m. expected to show yet another decline in the pace of jobs returning from the Covid-19 lockdowns just as the virus is raging out of control once again and new lockdowns are starting to pile up. Consensus is for a gain for 475K and unemployment ticking down a tenth to 6.8 percent. But the Wall Street whisper number is significantly lower, more like 200K. In normal times this would be quite strong. These are not normal times. We remain around 10 million short of the number of jobs we had before Covid hit. At a pace anywhere close to 200K or 300K it would take us years to get back to where we were. And we risk heading to zero or even negative again this winter, barring more fiscal assistance (more on which below). Moody's Mark Zandi emails : "Employment is expected to increase by 250,000 jobs in November. This includes a gain of 375,000 private sector jobs and a loss of 125,000 government jobs, of which close to 90,000 are lost temp jobs related to the 2020 Census. "November's job gain will be the weakest since the recovery from the pandemic-driven recession began in May, and will leave employment down close to 10 million jobs from its pre-pandemic peak. … The economy is losing momentum as the initial phase of the recovery has largely run its course … The impact of [new] restrictions will show up more clearly in the December jobs data, when the economy is at significant risk of losing jobs and unemployment rising." The cliff ahead — Via Morning Consult: "Among those receiving unemployment benefits in November, 66% are set to see those benefits expire by the end of December if Congress does not pass legislation extending unemployment benefits before then. … 25% of adults reported in November that they could not cover their basic household expenses for one full month using strictly their savings, up from 20% in August." More here. GOOD FRIDAY MORNING — Wish we had a happier message for you this Friday morning. Here's one: There is an end to this out there. It's not far away. We've just got WORK to do between now and then. So let's do it. Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver. | | | | A message from The Great Courses Plus: Don't be stagnant, keep your mind active with The Great Courses Plus . Learn at your own pace with the ability to stream lectures like the Art of Investing anytime, anywhere. Tap into an expansive selection of over 13,000 video streaming lectures from some of the world's greatest minds. Learning should be enjoyable, so start learning today with The Great Courses Plus! | | | | | | DEESE GETS THE GIG — As previously reported by MM, former Obama official and current BlackRock executive Brian Deese is President-elect Joe Biden's pick to be National Economic Council Director , the top econ official in the West Wing (and the post currently held by dear MM friend Larry Kudlow). The Biden team did exactly as we said they would, roll out some more progressive, diverse names first then slide Deese toward the end of the week with much less attention. In any event, Deese doesn't need confirmation, so he is fine for the job, though progressives may grumble. WHY HE GOT IT — Gene Sperling, top economic adviser to Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, emails: "At this time of multiple crisis on climate, restoring full-employment, and preventing an unequal recovery, Brian's expertise and experience on climate, the Paris Agreement, the auto rescue and policies to help the hardest-pressed working families truly makes him the best imaginable person to lead the NEC at this moment. "Add to that, he is someone who has deep West Wing and OMB experience and literally wowed everyone in the Obama Administration with his ability to excel at every aspect of this job." PRAISE ON THE RIGHT — Via former Goldman CEO and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson: "Brian is a very talented and creative professional who is adept at policy and politics and has a track record of getting difficult things done at home and abroad. His energy and skills will be invaluable in dealing with the enormous economic challenges posed by the Covid crisis and climate change." STILL HOPE FOR STIMULUS? — Our Heather Caygle, Burgess Everett, and Sarah Ferris: "The Problem Solvers may have actually solved something. For once. Fed up by months of inaction over coronavirus relief, House and Senate centrists are showing newfound force and influence, bucking their leadership this week in the hopes of finally clinching a stimulus deal. "Moderates' surprise $908 billion stimulus proposal appears to have jumpstarted long-stalled negotiations. On Thursday, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell held a rare call to discuss their 'shared commitment' to a stimulus package and year-end government funding deal." GOLDMAN AND CITI TO OFFER BANK ACCOUNTS THROUGH STRIPE — American Banker's Penny Crosman: "Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have struck a deal with Stripe to offer bank accounts to the merchants that use Stripe's online payment processing platform. Stripe has more than 2 million customers including Shopify, Github, Yelp, Spotify, Uber and Lyft and a large number of small businesses that could all use Goldman's and Citi's banking services." | | | | A message from The Great Courses Plus:   | | | | | | STOCKS FINISH MIXED — WSJ's Anna Hirtenstein and Gunjan Banerji: "U.S. stocks were mixed Thursday as weekly jobless claims declined and investors looked ahead to Friday's monthly jobs report. The S&P 500 was down 0.1 percent as of the 4 p.m. close of trading in New York, a day after the broad-market index closed at another all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 87 points, or 0.3 percent. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2 percent. MARKET SHOULD WORRY ABOUT 2022, NOT 2021 — WSJ's Jon Sindreu: "Amid a wave of optimism in financial markets, investors can relax about the expected profit rebound in 2021. They might worry more about 2022. Even as Western nations struggle to contain another jump in Covid-19 infections, most S&P 500 sectors are now up year-to-date. "Yet equities didn't get much of a boost Wednesday when the U.K. approved for use the vaccine made by Pfizer and BioNTech. The power of good news about the pandemic seems to be subject to diminishing returns, raising the question: Is the profit rebound mostly priced in?" | | | | A message from The Great Courses Plus: Are you an inquisitively curious individual that loves learning? Join a community of life-long learners, and learn more about any topic with The Great Courses Plus. Stream thousands of videos by some of this world's brightest minds. From the Art of Investing to the Theory of Everything, quench your thirst for knowledge with courses designed for the endlessly curious cat. With The Great Courses Plus, you'll enjoy being able to learn anytime, anywhere at your own pace. Now there's nothing keeping you from starting your educational journey. Learn now with The Great Courses Plus! | | | | | | WALLER CONFIRMED TO FED BOARD ON RAZOR-THIN MARGIN — Our Victoria Guida: "The Senate … voted 48-47 to confirm … Trump's nomination of Christopher Waller to join the Federal Reserve Board, the lowest level of support for a U.S. central banker in the modern age. "No Democrats voted for Waller, whose term will run until 2030, even though some of them had supported him in committee back in February. Democrats said Waller wasn't the best man for the moment, with the resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic and with … Biden poised to take office." SURVEY: REPUBLICANS HAVE GROWN WORRIED ABOUT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SINCE BIDEN'S WIN — NYT: "After President Trump's loss to former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., more than 40 percent of Republicans who were polled for The New York Times said they expected their family to be worse off financially in a year's time, up from 4 percent in October. "Democrats expressed a rise in optimism — though not as sharp as the change in Republican sentiment. The new polling, by the online research firm SurveyMonkey, reaffirms the degree to which Americans' confidence in the economy's path has become entwined with partisanship and ideology. " | | | | TUNE IN TO OUR GLOBAL TRANSLATIONS PODCAST: The world has long been beset by big problems that defy political boundaries, and these issues have exploded in 2020 amid a global pandemic. Global Translations podcast, presented by Citi, unpacks the roadblocks to smart policy decisions and examines the long-term costs of the short-term thinking that drives many political and business decisions. Subscribe for Season Two, available now. | | | | | LIBOR REPLACEMENT RACE PICKS UP WITH AMERIBOR SWAP DEBUT — Bloomberg's William Shaw: "The push to replace Libor is heating up, with the American Financial Exchange completing its first interest-rate swap linked to the alternative Ameribor benchmark. The self-regulated exchange, which facilitates the determination of Ameribor, said it completed a transaction worth a notional $24 million on Tuesday. The deal 'marks an important moment for Ameribor as it becomes a viable standard for swap markets,' the exchange said." COVID SHRINKS THE LABOR MARKET — WSJ's Gwynn Guilford and Sarah Chaney Cambon: "Since spring lockdowns were lifted, the demand for workers has snapped back faster than many economists expected. Between April and October the unemployment rate fell by more than half, to 6.9 percent, undoing more than two-thirds of its initial rise. "But unemployment data overstates the health of the labor market because the supply of people either working or looking for a job has declined. The U.S. labor force is 2.2 percent smaller than in February, a loss of 3.7 million workers." ICYMI: EXPLAINING THE FRENZY IN THE HOUSING MARKET — NYT's Issa Romem: "Ever since the housing market has emerged from its pandemic-driven freeze in late spring, there has been a frenzy of home buying and a sharp rise in prices. The common explanation is that the pandemic has swollen the ranks of those who need more private space for work and play and safety, typically farther from urban centers. "But why has that translated into fast-rising home prices all around? After all, if buying a new home means leaving behind an old one — an equal contribution to supply and demand — then what's disturbing the market balance and driving up prices?" | | | | NEXT WEEK - DON'T MISS THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT 2020: POLITICO will feature a special edition Future Pulse newsletter at the Milken Institute Future of Health Summit. The newsletter takes readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of global health industry leaders and innovators determined to confront and conquer the most significant health challenges. Covid-19 has exposed weaknesses across our health systems, particularly in the treatment of our most vulnerable communities, driving the focus of the 2020 conference on the converging crises of public health, economic insecurity, and social justice. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage from December 7–9. | | | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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