| | | | | |  | | By Ryan Heath | Presented by |  | | The world is quickly moving on from the Trump administration, if the first post-election global gatherings are any indication. By Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer's count, President-elect Joe Biden was mentioned roughly twice as often as President Donald Trump by the 180 speakers at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum, which featured big names ranging from Indian prime minister Narendra Modi to the IMF's Kristalina Georgieva. Over at the trade ministerial meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, the group unanimously committed to speeding-up existing World Trade Organization negotiations. Meanwhile, it took until 5 p.m. Thursday for the White House to confirm President Trump will participate in the APEC leaders meeting this morning. Neither the G20 secretariat nor White House could confirm his participation in the G20 leaders meeting. Steve Mnuchin will be at the G20 meeting, though this "doesn't indicate anything about (the) head of delegation," according to a White House spokesperson. Elite conversations bubbled with relief this week in Washington, New York, Brussels, and London following the news that an effective vaccine — manufactured at scale — is perhaps now only weeks away from authorization. Pfizer is set to apply for emergency FDA authorization Friday. The Zoom conversations that Global Translations joined were also tempered by fears that too many will refuse the vaccine. Rep. Donna Shalala (D - Fla.) told one French embassy audience that ultimately the vaccine will reach critical mass: "This has an economic engine behind it like nothing else we've ever seen. Every restaurant in my district is going to tell their customers to get the vaccine," she said. VACCINE REALITY CHECK: "Vaccines don't save lives, it's the actual vaccinations that do," said Kate Broderick, SVP for R&D, Inovio Pharmaceuticals, reminding Global Translations readers that the scientific breakthrough may be the easy part compared to getting distributed and injected in people around the world. "Vaccine policy is economic policy," said IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. Without it, there is no full economic recovery anywhere. | | | | A message from Bank of America: Contributing to the national conversation on race: A new program from the Smithsonian Institution, supported by $25 million from Bank of America, will include online town halls featuring civil rights and social justice leaders discussing pressing topics, including the critical need for greater economic opportunity in communities of color. Learn more. | | | APEC AND G20 SUMMITS — STATE OF PLAY After signing RCEP, the world's biggest trade deal, last week, China is again conducting the Asia-Pacific orchestra, this time at the APEC summit. President Xi Jinping has already delivered a keynote address to CEOs meeting on the sidelines of the summit, and will participate in further events over the weekend. Trump is delivering only a three-to-five-minute video speech to other leaders. G20 sherpas and deputies have met 13 times in advance of this weekend's summit in Riyadh to hammer out a leader's declaration. There's still no agreement according to the Saudi presidency of the G20. But that isn't stopping them from bragging that G20 countries have injected more than USD 11 trillion to support the global economy in 2020 or that the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative has benefited 46 low-income countries — though the Saudis can point to only $14 billion out of the $11 trillion going to the most vulnerable countries (barely one in every $1,000 spent). More G20 coordination please: The Global Business Coalition demands more intergovernmental collaboration to overcome the pandemic, a view echoed by the IMF's Georgieva, who said that "do no harm" is not enough to get the global economy back on track. Backlash against Saudis: The most notable thing about this virtual summit is the backlash to it: perhaps the first serious global protest of the virtual summit era. A "Counter G20 summit" is taking place Friday with sponsors including Amnesty International and speakers such as Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), and Lina al-Hathloul and Areej Al-Sadhan — sisters of activists imprisoned in Saudi Arabia. There are boycotts by the mayors of London, Paris, New York and Los Angeles, and the Washington Post, employer of the murdered journalist Jamal Khashoggi, published a scathing editorial about Saudi efforts to launder the country's reputation. There's also a new homegrown Saudi pro-democracy group: The National Assembly Party (NAAS), which emerged last month. While the European Parliament voted for a downgraded EU presence at the summit, Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel are both attending. Reality check: If the world's democracies can't coordinate responses against Saudi Arabia when it egregiously violates international norms, their chances of doing so against China are slim. | | | | DON'T MISS NEW EPISODES OF GLOBAL TRANSLATIONS PODCAST: The world has long been beset by big problems that defy political boundaries, and these issues have exploded in 2020 amid a global pandemic. Global Translations podcast, presented by Citi, unpacks the roadblocks to smart policy decisions and examines the long-term costs of the short-term thinking that drives many political and business decisions. Subscribe for Season Two, available now. | | | | | CHINA VS. DEMOCRACY There's been a deluge of China analysis this week. A report from the Halifax International Security Forum, which convenes Nov. 20 to 22, entitled "China vs. Democracy," is the best of the bunch. The Forum team led by Peter Van Praagh does not mince words: They argue that China is on a trajectory to deliver "an even more complete form of totalitarianism than Stalin could have dreamed of," and that Chinese companies must now be treated as guilty until proven innocent when it comes to their links to the Chinese state. Other reports from the State Department and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Republican majority agree that the U.S., EU and other democracies cannot cut China off — too many of the solutions to global challenges depend on China's participation — yet individual democracies will fail to outmaneuver China by operating alone. That's a bitter pill the Trump administration hasn't been willing to swallow. But if the Halifax report is correct — "The harsh truth is that, collectively, we got China wrong" — we'll also need to change course collectively. Or as Scott Minerd, Guggenheim Investments chief investment officer, put it: "The Trump administration missed an opportunity that we may not be able to get back. We have to face the fact that China's emergence is not going to allow the US to operate the same way we did prior." Australia is waking up with a China hangover this week: After restricting foreign investment, banning Huawei and calling for investigations into the source of the novel coronavirus, Australia has been battered with Chinese tariffs and insults in 2020. The latest installment: A list of 14 public complaints the Chinese government has about its Australian counterpart, on which it places full blame for deteriorating relations. Climate is the intersection of interests: Kevin Rudd, former Australian prime minister, told the Bloomberg New Economy Forum: "China wants to act, but it realizes that China's national actions will be inconsequential in the absence of global action. That's why China wishes to engage the Americans and why the Biden administration will want to engage the Chinese." HOW CHINA COULD STRANGLE BIDEN'S AGENDA: In the latest Global Translations podcast episode Luiza Savage and I look at how the West's access to the materials that enable the technologies that support our daily lives are increasingly under threat, including the the supply chains dominated by China, creating a strategic vulnerability. Biden's climate plan includes a goal of ensuring all new cars sold in the United States be emissions-free, though no target date is specified. Regardless, that mass-production of electric vehicles comes with a not-so-green asterisk: Instead of drilling for oil and gas, electrification requires mining of neodymium, niobium, and yttrium, along with lithium and cobalt and other minerals used in rechargeable batteries, solar cells and other technologies. Disruptions to the supply of these materials could upend America's tech sector and its climate efforts. Sharon Burke, director of the Resource Security group at the think tank New America, told Luiza Savage about a recent "war game" simulation in which America was knee-capped in a military confrontation as soon as China cut off supplies. "We were bringing our artillery and the Chinese just manipulated trade in raw materials and in industrial capacity to end the war before it ever started," she said. Full story here. | | | | A message from Bank of America:   | | | QUOTABLE — BLOOMBERG NEW ECONOMY FORUM HIGHLIGHTS The world's business and political power-brokers came for a post-election pow-wow and the takeaway was: more collaboration, please. Global Translations paid close attention this week, because in 2021 we'll focus heavily on the world's economic recovery. Catch up quickly with this highlight reel. Memo to the Pope: Be quicker next time. Bloomberg insiders say his video message arrived too late Thursday to be included in the line-up. Hillary Clinton's prediction: the Biden-Harris administration will focus on the real economy to shore up "an already shaky market system." Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin on reviving global trade : Let's "reverse move towards protectionism and move towards an open trading environment." Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson's call for a new round of U.S.-China trade talks : "It's time to move from reflexive reciprocity that responds fiercely but erratically by doing unto China what China does to us, to a policy that I call targeted reciprocity." Michael Bloomberg's confidence and education-first strategy: "The U.S. government can't possibly come up with enough cash, no matter how much they borrow, to repair the damage done by the virus … We need to rebuild cities not just with finance, but with confidence. There is no substitute to being together to share ideas and create. You just can't do that remotely. There's a reason why big cities are big." "We need better education. We've got a bunch of kids that are (effectively) missing a year of school, when they need more education not less." Globalization author and expert Tom Friedman: "The change that we've seen in China under Xi Jinping is dramatically different and more important than anything we'll see change between a Trump and Biden administration." European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's fears: That pandemic mishandling will cause negative long-term behavior change among both consumers and investors. | | | | 2020 HALIFAX INTERNATIONAL SECURITY FORUM: Tune in as international security leaders from democracies around the world discuss key challenges at the 12th annual Halifax International Security Forum . As an official media partner, POLITICO will livestream conversation beginning at 11:30 a.m. on November 20. | | | | | TRANSITIONING World pushes ahead with climate action as U.S. remains in limbo : Good intentions don't get President-elect Biden a seat at the Dec. 12 global climate summit — meaning the U.S. will be absent from a climate summit for the first time. That's left organizers scrambling for ways to include a Biden ally from state and local government. More broadly, the global action is now in Green (New) Deal territory, a step up from the basic framework of the Paris climate agreement that Biden has committed to rejoining. Biden faces a new global health world order: When the U.S. announced it was leaving the World Health Organization, Europe stepped up. European governments don't plan to step away when Biden arrives. Takeaway: Biden Must Craft a Foreign Policy for a World the U.S. Doesn't Rule. See also, Joe Biden and the new art of world leadership, from The Economist. | | | | A message from Bank of America: "Our commitment to the Smithsonian will support conversations that can advance economic and social progress. Now is the time. We all must do more," says Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan about why the Bank is supporting the Smithsonian Institution's new program Race, Community and Our Shared Future. Learn more. | | | REALITY CHECK CORNER Give war a chance: The Nobel Peace Prize committee once again has egg on its face, this time for awarding their peace prize to Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, who led his country into a civil war this week. The committee said it's "deeply concerned." Somehow, Global Translations doubts that's going to move the needle. No new coal! The EU is the world's self-proclaimed climate leader, but it got an earful Thursday from U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres. The Portuguese official warned " there must be no new coal, and all existing coal in the European Union should be phased out by 2030 in OECD countries, and by 2040 elsewhere." Poland, in particular, is still in love with brown coal, the dirtiest type. Amazon-free Christmas in France? A petition backed by political and cultural figures, environmental organizations, and trade unions, titled "Noël Sans Amazon" ("Amazon-free Christmas"), is calling on consumers to "not buy any gifts" from Amazon these holidays. Let's get real: France is home to Euro Disney, was for decades the biggest McDonalds market outside of the U.S., and has a talent for creating huge multinationals ranging from cosmetics (L'Oreal) to supermarkets (Carrefour) to nuclear power and defense. The French are going to buy more from Amazon than ever this Christmas. Anti-Amazon activists did score an interim win: Amazon announced Thursday it would postpone its Black Friday sales in France to December 4, allowing France's physical stores several days to clock up sales when the country's lockdown ends Dec. 1. Democrats aging into oblivion: Whatever their talents and short-term numerical advantage in the Democrat House caucus, re-electing a leadership trio of Nancy Pelosi (80), Steny Hoyer (81) and Jim Clyburn (80) — to service alongside a 78-year-old President Biden — is likely to explode spectacularly in the medium term (or is that midterm?) 14 Things Proved Wrong in 2020, from Canada's Macleans magazine.
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NANSHA, CHINA - NOVEMBER 18: Day 2 of CNBC East Tech West on November 18, 2020 in Nansha, Guangzhou, China. (Photo by Zhong Zhi/Getty Images for CNBC International) | | Read our full Global Tech Spotlight. This week we look at the formula behind China's tech-enabled authoritarian model, with insights from Ian Bremmer, Samantha Hoffman, Nand Mulchandani, Robert Williams and Russell Howarth. Global Translations used a Twitter poll Tuesday to test reactions to Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg claiming in congressional testimony that "we certainly do not want our products to be addictive." Around 400 respondents — from Harvard's Dipayan Ghosh, to Alethea Group's Lisa Kaplan and NYU Law School's Tunku Varadarajan — were part of a collective snort: 97 percent said they don't believe Zuckerberg.
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| | | POWER PLAYS AND ELECTIONS | | Morning Consult's global leader approval rating tracker. It's been a rocky week for democracies around the world: war, deadly protests and a presidential revolving door in Peru are among the outcomes. And that's not including what Trump is doing in the U.S. ETHIOPIA — CIVIL WAR ARRIVES: African leaders have initiated talks with Ethiopian ministers in an effort to halt a conflict that is headed for war. POLITICO's Simon Marks explains the conflict. Perspectives on the conflict: The Global Dispatches podcast looks at how Ethiopia got to the brink of civil war and potential avenues for de-escalation. There are ethnic tensions at play, writes Carlos Santamaria: Tigrayan Meles Zenawi led the country from 1995 to 2012 and Tigrayan's were heavily represented in the government, the economy, and the military. The current leader, Abiy Ahmed, is Ethiopia's first ethnic Oromo prime minister. Ethiopia this week accused the WHO chief of backing Tigray rebels The Economist reckons the conflict is now spreading outside Ethiopia's borders. Salafi-jihadi militants may be exploiting the growing security vacuum: Ethiopia's intelligence service claimed to have arrested 14 militants linked to al Qaeda and the Islamic State. MOROCCO AND WESTERN SAHARA: A 29-year ceasefire ended this week. "For us, it is an open war," said Sidi Omar, the Polisario Front's representative to the U.N. THAILAND — MONARCHY FACES A SMART NEW BREED OF PROTESTER: They're young, social media-savvy, and focused on limiting the monarchy's power, all of which has Thailand's generals on the ropes. UGANDA — DEADLY PROTESTS AFTER OPPOSITION ARREST: Deadly protests after the arrest of presidential candidate Bobi Wine leave seven dead. PERU — THREE UNELECTED PRESIDENTS IN A WEEK, MAYBE A FOURTH IN 2021: "Impeachment, mass protests, deadly crackdowns, and even a 24-hour period when no one was running the country," is how Eurasia Group describes recent developments. The problems started when Congress voted to remove President Martín Vizcarra (prompted by bribery allegations) who himself was installed in 2018 after Pedro Pablo Kuczynski was sacked over a vote-buying scandal. President of Congress Manuel Merino was installed, prompting deadly street protests, which led? Merino and his cabinet to resign. There was a presidential vacuum until Monday evening when a former World Bank diplomat, Congressman Francisco Sagasti, was installed. Elections are due April 2021. GEORGIA — THE OTHER GEORGIAN RUN-OFF VOTE: The International Republican Institute (IRI) today released an interim election observation report from first-round voting in parliamentary elections ahead of a Nov. 21 run-off vote, which found that Georgia's election "fell short" of international standards. The report cities the likely misuse of state administrative resources, voter intimidation, vote buying, the manipulation of precinct-level summary protocols and a results management process that failed to meet international standards.
| | | WTO — TOP JOB CHOICE SET TO LAND IN BIDEN'S LAP: There's no sign of a consensus coming out of the WTO discussions. South Korea does not want to withdraw its candidate, Yoo Myung-hee, and the Trump administration still won't back Nigeria's Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala , who has the support of an overwhelming majority of WTO member governments. WHO — NEW COUNCIL ON UNIVERSAL HEALTHCARE ECONOMICS: Marianna Mazzucato, star of a recent Global Translations podcast episode, will chair the new body, looking into how health investments can help "achieve sustainable, inclusive and innovation-led economic growth." SOVEREIGN BANKRUPTCY TEMPLATE: Ecuador, Lebanon, Belize, Suriname and — naturally — Argentina have already defaulted or restructured debts in 2020, but it's Zambia that the Financial Times thinks will end up as a template example. BEZOS DOLES OUT FIRST $719M FROM EARTH FUND: Ten months down the line Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos has announced the first 16 recipients of his Earth Fund. PEACE CORPS STARTING UP AGAIN IN JANUARY: Peace Corps Director Jody Olsen told a Commonwealth Club of California audience that the corps will be returning to Cambodia in January. BRAIN FOOD SHORT READ: The Economist guide to apps that claim to save you time reading, by summarizing the latest books . The magazine says they tend to be useful as rapid introductions to a new topic, and in helping you choose which books to read in full. LONG READ: The Last Children of Downs Syndrome. Denmark introduced mandatory prenatal screening in 2004. Last year just 18 children with the genetic disorder were born, meaning the testing is changing who gets born and who doesn't, by Sarah Zhang. LONG READ: The Economist's World in 2021 is now out online and on newsstands Dec. 4. BOOK: Scott Galloway' s "Post Corona" — the best sort of practical advice for going from pandemic multi-crisis to economic opportunity, and a proposal for a Corona Corps to get the U.S. back on its feet. You may know Galloway from his Pivot podcast with Kara Swisher. STREAMING: Bloomberg Television has launched Quicktake, which it bills as "streaming news for a global view." THANKS to editor Emily Cadei, Luiza Ch. Savage, Heidi Vogt, Kalina Oroschakoff and Halley Toosi.
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