Friday, November 20, 2020

Axios Generate: GM's electric bet — Microsoft's climate lobbying — Biden's EV numbers

1 big thing: General Motors raises the electric stakes | Friday, November 20, 2020
 
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By Ben Geman ·Nov 20, 2020

Good morning. Today's Smart Brevity count: 1,073 words, 4 minutes.

🤦An item in yesterday's Generate about VC seed money for the startup Ecolution kWh inaccurately described its fundraising. The corrected story is here.

🎶And this weekend marks the 1993 release date of a terrific U2 song that's today's intro tune...

 
 
1 big thing: General Motors raises the electric stakes
Giphy

It was already on, but now the competition for the electric vehicle market of the future is really on.

The big picture: General Motors is increasing its investment in EVs and autonomous tech to $27 billion through 2025 — $7 billion more than prior plans — as it seeks a top global position.

  • "EVs are core to creating GM's shareholder value," CEO Mary Barra told a Barclays investor conference Thursday, touting the goal of "mass consumer adoption."
  • The company is also speeding up plans to launch several vehicles.

Why it matters: It's the clearest sign yet that GM is hoping to challenge Tesla, which dominates U.S. EV sales.

  • As Bloomberg points out, Barra's making a "calculated gamble that car buyers are ready to make the switch to plug-in models."
  • But that's still a gamble, and other legacy automakers, notably VW, are also devoting lots of resources to electrification, while lots of new startups are circling too.

What they're saying: The presentation yesterday says GM intends to have the highest North American EV market share.

  • "We want to lead in this space. We don't want to just participate," Doug Parks, a top product development official, told reporters while acknowledging "Tesla's got a good jump."

The intrigue: GM said the $27 billion exceeds planned production and development spending for gasoline and diesel vehicles.

That's an interesting inflection point when you consider that EVs are still a tiny slice of U.S. sales (roughly 2%) and still a very small part of the overall global market.

How it works: GM now plans to roll out 30 all-electric models by 2025 (with two-thirds available in the U.S.), compared to prior plans for 20 by 2023.

  • And not just halo vehicles — a presentation at the Barclays conference says they're planning "several key high-volume entries" by 2023.
  • GM says the vehicles will cover a wide range of price points — including models under $35,000 in addition to expensive rides like the electric GMC Hummer.
  • The faster development and rollout now includes plans to launch the Cadillac Lyriq in early 2022, nine months faster than the prior schedule.
  • Overall, GM said it's speeding up the timeline for 12 vehicles. The GMC Hummer, four Chevys including a pickup and small crossover, and several other Cadillacs are on that list.
  • GM also said the range of its Ultium battery propulsion system that underpins its new EVs will reach 450 miles, up from 400.

Go deeper: GM spending on EVs set to outstrip outlays on gas, diesel technologies (Detroit News)

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2. Chart of the day GM vs. Tesla
Data: FactSet; Chart: Sara Wise/Axios

That chart is kind of crazy when you consider that EVs are still a tiny slice of vehicle sales and GM's overall sales far outstrip Tesla's.

Why it matters: Tesla's enormous market value helps to show how investors see vehicles with a plug as the future, even though internal combustion vehicles will dominate for a long time to come.

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3. Microsoft's next phase of climate lobbying
Illustration of the Microsoft logo splitting the earth into four sections

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

Microsoft has brought on the government affairs firm Lot Sixteen to lobby on sustainability and climate change, a newly public filing shows.

Why it matters: While Microsoft has lots of in-house and outside lobbyists working on all sorts of things, it's the first time an outside firm will be lobbying only on climate and environmental topics, Microsoft confirmed.

What they're saying: "The company made bold, new climate commitments this year. Adding a firm dedicated to this effort reflects this priority issue," said Kate Frischmann, a Microsoft spokeswoman.

Catch up fast: The company has made new environmental commitments and funding announcements this year including...

  • In January, Microsoft pledged to become "carbon negative" by 2030 and announced a $1 billion fund for technologies and methods that pull CO2 directly from the atmosphere.
  • They also set a goal of having "zero waste" from their operations, products and packaging by 2030.

Where it stands: Lot Sixteen will lobby on "programmatic design and funding, including tax treatments, to improve sustainability outcomes and address climate change," the filing states.

Quick take: As we've written about before, big corporate climate pledges, to succeed, often require policy changes that companies can influence but don't control, so their lobbying is something to watch.

Go deeper: Big Tech's climate plans come into focus

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A message from Chevron

Chevron is powering a better future for all
 
 

It's only human to want to build a better world.

Chevron is working together with women and minority-owned businesses, spending $4 billion since 2014. Because we believe that valuable ideas only come when you value everyone.

Learn more here.

 
 
4. The Biden angle on EV growth

One more EV thing! The Center for Strategic and International Studies has a helpful look at how Joe Biden's win could affect U.S. EV sales. The short answer is a lot.

The big picture: Biden, who talks a lot about EVs, is expected to try to scuttle Trump administration regulations that weakened the Obama-era auto mileage and emissions rule. And go even further.

Why it matters: The CSIS primer offers some not-previously-public projections from the research firm BloombergNEF...

  • If the U.S. simply reverted back to the Obama-era standards, "by 2023, EV sales would jump to 15 percent of total car sales and by 2026, to 25 percent." That would be roughly 4 million cars that year.
  • Under the Trump administration's less aggressive rules, EVs would not break 5% by then, per BloombergNEF's analysis.

Yes, but: Rewriting regulations is time-consuming and legally fraught, while other Biden proposals — including expanded consumer tax incentives for EVs — face stiff headwinds in Congress.

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5. Quote of the day
"Oil will not save us this time around."

Who said it: Consultant Pedro Burelli, a former board member of Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA, quoted in the Financial Times.

The context: The story explores the idea that Venezuela cannot revive its economy via the revival of production from its massive reserves of carbon-intensive heavy oil.

The big picture: "Concerns about climate change are upending energy markets worldwide, and some experts believe much of the country's most valuable asset will remain stranded in the ground," the FT reports.

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6. Catch up fast: Hydrogen, wind, politics, SPACs

Europe, part 1: "Spanish utility Iberdrola is aiming to become one of Europe's top green hydrogen producers with a 200-megawatt electrolyzer project and plans for 600 MW more." (Greentech Media)

Europe, part 2: "The European Union wants to increase its offshore wind capacity from 12 to 300 gigawatts (GW) by 2050, according to new plans laid out on Thursday." (CNBC)

Deals: "Lightning EMotors, a company that focuses on fleet electrification and cutting out fuel consumption, is in advanced talks to go public through a merger with blank-check firm GigCapital3 Inc., according to people with knowledge of the matter." (Bloomberg)

Advocacy: "The newly expanded group of young progressive Democrats in the House, led by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, is moving quickly to pressure President-elect Joe Biden for bold action on climate change, racial justice and other issues despite wariness among some in the party's establishment of moving too far, too quickly." (Bloomberg)

Pledges: "Canada, which has never met any of its climate change targets, on Thursday unveiled measures to toughen Ottawa's stance on global warming and ensure the country hit a goal of net zero emissions by 2050." (Reuters)

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A message from Chevron

Chevron is powering a better future for all
 
 

It's only human to want to build a better world.

Chevron is working together with women and minority-owned businesses, spending $4 billion since 2014. Because we believe that valuable ideas only come when you value everyone.

Learn more here.

 
 

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