Monday, November 16, 2020

FX Strategy 16 Nov 2020

 
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FX Strategy 16 Nov 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, NOK and NZD are the top gainers today, up 0.85% and 0.6% versus the dollar while JPY and USD are the top losers. In the rates market, global yields were trading weaker today. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.018, down -0.7bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.331, down -0.9bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.557, down -1.0bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.882, down -1.6bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading stronger today. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 25906.93, up 2.05%. The Hang Seng was trading at 26375.45, up 0.84%. The Kospi was trading at 2543.03, up 1.97%. In the European equities, indices were trading firm today. The DAX 30 was trading at 13174.15, up 0.75%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 6363.85, up 0.75%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3463.25, up 0.91%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the FTSE100 Futures was trading at 6353.0, up 0.63%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3470.0, up 0.93%. The SP500 Futures was trading at 3610.62, up 0.8%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading stronger today. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 41.17, up 2.59%. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 43.73, up 2.22%.

 

In terms of economic data releases, we have already seen Chinese October data with House Price Index YoY (Actual 4.3% v Forecast 4.4%), Industrial Production YoY (Actual 6.9% v Forecast 6.3%), Retail Sales YoY (Actual 4.3% v Forecast 4.6%) and the Unemployment Rate (Actual 5.3% v Forecast 5.5%). We have also had Japanese Industrial Production Final for September MoM (Actual 3.9% v Forecast 4.0%). This morning's session starts with RBA Governor Lowe speaking at 08:40 GMT, with ECB's Guindos starting his speech and Italian Inflation Rate Final YoY (Previous -0.6% v Forecast -0.3%) both at 09:00 GMT. At 11:30 GMT we look forward to the BCB Focus Market Readout.

 

This afternoon's session starts with ECB President Lagarde and Bundesbank's Mauderer who are speaking separately at 13:00 GMT. At 13:30 GMT Canadian New Motor Vehicle Sales for September (Previous 172K v Forecast 169K), Canadian Manufacturing Sales for September MoM (Previous -2.0% v Forecast 1.5%) and US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for November (Previous 10.50 v Forecast 15) are all released at 13:30 GMT. ECB's Mersch is also speaking at the same time. Later in the session we have numerous speakers, including Fed's Clarida (17:00 GMT), BoE's Haskel (17:30 GMT), Fed's Daly (18:45 GMT) and RBA's Kent (22:30 GMT)

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.1823 for 1.1886
Short-term view: EURUSD support comes in at 1.1823 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.1886 enter at 1.1844. Below 1.1823 to open 1.1809

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.3169 for 1.3261
Short-term view: GBPUSD support comes in at 1.3169 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.3261 enter at 1.3199. Below 1.3169 to open 1.3138

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 104.78 for 104.17
Short-term view: USDJPY resistance comes in at 104.78 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 104.17 enter at 104.58. Above 104.78 to open 105.01

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 0.7288 for 0.7341
Short-term view: AUDUSD support comes in at 0.7288 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 0.7341 enter at 0.7302. Below 0.7288 to open 0.7255

 
 
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