Monday, November 9, 2020

FX Strategy 09 Nov 2020

 
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FX Strategy 09 Nov 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, NZD and AUD are the top gainers today, up 0.59% and 0.36% versus the dollar while USD and JPY are the top losers. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The US 10-year was trading at 0.82, flat 0.0bp. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.013, down -0.7bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.635, down -1.3bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.26, down -1.7bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading stronger today. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 24839.84, up 2.12%. The Hang Seng was trading at 26005.45, up 1.14%. The Kospi was trading at 2447.2, up 1.27%. In the European equities, indices were trading firm today. The DAX 30 was trading at 12714.35, up 1.88%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 6002.84, up 1.57%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3255.07, up 1.59%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the FTSE100 Futures was trading at 5975.5, up 1.55%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3250.0, up 1.63%. The SP500 Futures was trading at 3550.75, up 1.43%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading stronger today. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 40.41, up 2.43%. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 38.07, up 2.5%.

 

In terms of economic data releases, we have already seen Australian Building Permits MoM Final for September (Actual 15.4% v Forecast 15.4%) and Japanese Leading Economic Index Prel also for September (Actual 92.9 v Forecast 88). We have also had German data for September with Balance of Trade (Actual €20.8B v Forecast €19.9B), Imports MoM s.a. (Actual -0.1% v Consensus 2.1%), Exports MoM s.a. (Actual 2.3% v Consensus 2%) and Current Account (Actual €26.3B v Forecast €20.8B). Looking forward to the morning session, ECB's President Lagarde is speaking at 09:25 GMT, followed by BoE's Governor Bailey who is will start speaking at 10:35 GMT. The BCCB Focus Market Readout is released at 11:30 GMT and ECB's Mersch is also speaking at 12:00 GMT. At the same time (12:00 GMT) Mexican Inflation Rate is released for October YoY (Previous 4.01% v Forecast 4%) and MoM (Previous 0.23% v Forecast 0.5%).

 

The afternoon session starts with Russian Foreign Exchange Reserves for October (Previous $583.4B) with BoE's Haldane speaking at 14:00 GMT. Fed's Mester and Harker are speaking at 18:30 GMT and 19:20 GMT respectively. Later this evening at 23:50 GMT, Japanese Current Account for September (Previous YEN2102.8B v Forecast YEN1850B) and Bank Lending YoY for October (Previous 6.4% v Forecast 6.2%) will both be released.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.1915 for 1.1855
Short-term view: EURUSD MACD and RSI are flat but resistance comes in at 1.1915 and we see a dip to 1.1855 enter at 1.1895. Above 1.1915 to open 1.1951

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.3141 for 1.3226
Short-term view: GBPUSD MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 1.3141 and we see a rise to 1.3226 enter at 1.3169. Below 1.3141 to open 1.3104

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 103.07 for 104.0
Short-term view: USDJPY MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 103.07 and we see a rise to 104.0 enter at 103.38. Below 103.07 to open 102.83

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 0.7262 for 0.7311
Short-term view: AUDUSD MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 0.7262 and we see a rise to 0.7311 enter at 0.7278. Below 0.7262 to open 0.7236

 
 
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