News : POLITICO New Jersey Playbook: New Jersey and a new president

Monday, November 9, 2020

POLITICO New Jersey Playbook: New Jersey and a new president

Nov 09, 2020

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By Matt Friedman

Presented by The Bouqs Co.

Good Monday morning!

We have a new president-elect.

The Record's Dustin Racioppi yesterday tweeted "How soon till the first story speculating whether @GovMurphy joins the Biden administration?" The answer is over a year ago. But Dustin clarified that he meant after the election. So the answer is: Right now.

The governor — and Sen. Booker for that matter — have repeatedly said they want to continue in their current roles instead of serving in a Biden cabinet. And I haven't seen either of their names on stories about cabinet shortlists so far. But we all know that politicians don't always follow through on these pledges, so until a cabinet is named, the speculation will persist. And in the probably highly unlikely scenario that President-elect Biden decided to tap Murphy for, say, secretary of state, do you really think he'd pass that up in order to slog through another New Jersey campaign?

And I could see reelection more difficult than many assume, since Murphy won't have Trump to kick around at the top of the ticket anymore. There's no question that the president deeply wounded New Jersey Republicans, who were already very much a minority party in the state. But the New Jersey electorate has repeatedly shown a willingness to vote for GOP governors. And if the economy isn't quick to recover with a Democratic president in office, it's not hard to imagine a repeat of 2009 — even despite Democratic gains in New Jersey since then.

Then again, Trump's presidency was so abnormal that you've got to wonder if voters will not so easily forgive New Jersey Republicans who supported Trump. And even now, with Trump refusing to concede an election he decisively lost while offering nothing but baseless conspiracy theory voter fraud claims, only a few major New Jersey Republicans have publicly acknowledged the reality that he did, in fact, lose.

Meanwhile, this election has potentially big policy implications for New Jersey. Rep. Donald Payne Jr. (D-10th Dist.) is on track to chair a key railroad transportation subcommittee, while the most train-friendly president of modern times is about to take office. Yes, the Senate is probably more likely than not to remain Republican, but this could be what finally gets the Gateway Project going.

Other key things to watch out for with the power transition: Could the SALT deduction cap be removed? Will it make a difference in whether New Jersey receives its redistricting data before or after February 15: The date that determines whether redistricting gets delayed? And will small government conservative Scott Garrett, given a special government job by the Trump administration after the Senate refused to confirm him to lead the Export-Impact Bank, be forced to work in the private sector?

CORONAVIRUS TRACKER — 2,043 newly-diagnosed cases for a total of 254,595. Four more deaths for a total of 14,629 (and 1,800 probable deaths)

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — Assembly Dems' Nicole Brown, Burlington County Freeholder Balvir Singh, Kaufman Zita's Beth Dohm, NJLCV's Lee Clark, former state Senate candidate Jan Bidwell, Insurance Council's Chris Stark, Former Glen Rock Councilman Arthur Pazan, WNBC's Howard Gowa.

WHERE'S MURPHY? In Trenton for a 1 p.m. coronavirus press conference with Sen. Booker and others

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Buzz off." — News 12 NJ reporter Alex Zdan to a Trump supporter who interrupted his live shot. The clip has gone massively viral, with many falsely believing Zdan said "f__k off"

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WHAT TRENTON MADE

BEST POSSIBLE TIMING FOR MURPHY: THE FRIDAY AFTER A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION — S&P downgrades New Jersey's credit rating after Fitch maintains it, by POLITICO's Katherine Landergan: A major Wall Street ratings agency downgraded New Jersey's credit rating on Friday as the state embarks on borrowing more than $4 billion to cover costs related to the coronavirus pandemic. The details: S&P Global Ratings lowered its rating for the state from 'A-' to "BBB+," with a stable rating outlook. A credit downgrade can increase the state's borrowing costs. "The downgrade reflects our view that New Jersey will continue to have a significant structural deficit that will be difficult to close in the coming years because of decreased revenues as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with high and increasing debt, pension, and other postemployment benefit liabilities," S&P Global Ratings credit analyst David Hitchcock said in a statement. Earlier Friday, Fitch Ratings maintained the state's rating at A- and it's fiscal outlook at "negative." The rating, Fitch says, reflects "the state's adequate but stressed financial resilience as it navigates the economic and fiscal uncertainties posed by the coronavirus pandemic."

NJ: WHERE THE FUN MUST BE ACCOMPANIED BY BUREAUCRACY — Murphy associate counsel to chair New Jersey Cannabis Regulatory Commission, by POLITICO's Sam Sutton : Sixteen months after signing legislation that established a new agency to oversee New Jersey's nascent marijuana industry, Gov. Phil Murphy on Friday made his first picks for the Cannabis Regulatory Commission. Dianna Houenou, an associate counsel and senior policy adviser to the governor, will serve as the chair of the five-person commission. Assistant Department of Health Commissioner Jeff Brown, head of the state's medical marijuana program, has been named the commission's executive director. The selection of Brown and Houenou, whose appointment was first reported by The Root, comes as lawmakers and Murphy administration officials negotiate enabling legislation that would codify a cannabis legalization amendment backed by roughly two-thirds of New Jersey voters earlier this week.

SENATE HEARING TODAY — "Top lawmaker introduces bill to launch weed industry days after vote to legalize passes in N.J."

—" Will medical marijuana survive once everyone can buy cannabis?"

—"Legal weed: NJ marijuana farm gets ready for first harvest"

EVERYBODY'S FAULT BUT TRUMP'S — " Gaburo to Steinhardt: 'Apologize or resign'," by InsiderNJ's Max Pizarro : "Former Somerset GOP Chairman Al Gaburo emphatically objected to comments made earlier this week by State Party Chairman Doug Steinhardt. 'As a state committee person in Somerset, here's the deal, Doug Steinhardt, either apologize to the Republican of the Somerset County Republican Organization who worked their ass off for Tom Kean and countywide candidates to be helpful – apologize or resign, period, because you can't have it both ways,' Gaburo said. 'You can't take credit for gains Republicans made last year and then not take blame for the shit show that happened in New Jersey this year.' Singling out and blaming county organizations is like a quarterback who fails to make plays blaming the team and not taking responsibility himself, the former ten-year chair added … Steinhardt … engaged in a conversation with Save Jersey Editor Matt Rooney. The chairman acknowledged that Central Jersey and in particular Somerset County is becoming progressively more Democrat … 'Unfortunately it hasn't shown itself at the county level,' said Steinhardt. "We need to be building parties all over, not having that support… makes it a little difficult [for failed 7th District congressional candidate Tom Kean, Jr.).'"

— State Supreme Court declines to hear Norcross v. Murphy

TRACK THE TRANSITION, SUBSCRIBE TO TRANSITION PLAYBOOK: The definitive guide to what could be one of the most consequential transfers of power in American history. Our Transition Playbook newsletter—written for political insiders—tracks the appointments, people, and power centers of the new administration. Don't miss out. Subscribe today.

TRUMP ERA

THE ARC IS HISTORY BUT IT BENDS TOWARDS GATEWAY — Northeast transit leaders look to Biden presidency for much needed relief, by POLITICO's Danielle Muoio and Samantha Maldonado : Facing an unprecedented fiscal and health crisis, Northeast transit leaders have been among those hoping for a Joe Biden victory after years of short shrift at the hands of the Trump administration and months of uncertainty about the future of mass transit. Biden, whose victory over Trump was called Saturday, is widely seen as a boon for mass transit in the Northeast. Nicknamed "Amtrak Joe" for his frequent trips on the Northeast corridor, the president-elect is an avid supporter of expanding rail and made it a focal point of his presidential platform. But how much relief transit leaders should expect and how fast it will come is still anyone's guess. "There's definitely reason for more of an optimistic feeling about what can start moving," said Renae Reynolds, transportation planner for the New York City Environmental Justice Alliance. "The more sobering component is what happens in Congress and [if] that body becomes an ally and overcomes the barriers of partisanship."

KENNEDONE — "Party-switcher Rep. Jeff Van Drew declared winner against Amy Kennedy in 2nd Congressional District," by The Philadelphia Inquirer's Amy S. Rosenberg: "U.S. Rep. Jeff Van Drew, who infuriated Democrats when he switched parties and declared "undying support" to President Donald Trump, was declared the winner Friday over Democrat Amy Kennedy in New Jersey's 2nd Congressional District. The projected victory ends Democratic visions of revenge against Van Drew, whose long history of winning elections in South Jersey ultimately served him well, even in his new party, and gave him the last Republican laugh against a candidate with a prized Democratic pedigree: the Kennedy name. It also will leave the storied American political dynasty without a family member in elected federal office, after Joe Kennedy lost his bid for a Senate seat in Massachusetts."

—Stile: "Jeff Van Drew, who broke with Democrats to join Trump, proved victorious"

— New Jersey Republicans Christie and Bramnick criticize Trump's baseless claims, by POLITCIO's Matt Friedman: Two high-profile New Jersey Republicans — former Gov. Chris Christie and state Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick — are criticizing President Donald Trump for airing baseless grievances that the presidential election is being stolen from him, even as some national mainstream Republicans have lent credence to the president's rhetoric. "As the Republican leader in the State Assembly I am deeply concerned about President Trump's allegation that the election is being 'stolen' without evidence of fraud or illegality," Bramnick (R-Union) tweeted Friday morning. "This attack directly from the White House is dangerous to our democracy." Bramnick's tweet, which garnered thousands of "likes" and hundreds of replies within a couple of hours, followed Christie's statement on ABC Thursday night that "we heard nothing today about any evidence" from Trump. Christie, a Trump supporter, hedged his criticism, however. "I want to know what backs up what he said so that I can analyze it. And let me tell you, if he's right, I'll be outraged and I'm sure you would be too," he said.

TRUMPED — " Jersey voters gag on Trump, giving Democrats in Congress landslide wins," by The Star-Ledger's Tom Moran: "In the previous two elections, Democrats have taken four seats that had long been controlled by Republicans. Now they all have a good shot at cementing their position for years to come. The closest race of the four was Rep. Tom Malinowski's 8-point win over state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. in the 7th District. Rep. Mikie Sherrill won by 15 points in the 11th. Rep. Josh Gottheimer won by 12 points in the 5th. And Kim was up by 10 points in the 3rd. "Both coasts have rejected Trump's brand of Republicanism and New Jersey's 7th could be the poster child for that," says Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University poll. 'Tom Kean Jr. was trying to run on this idea that the Republican Party of his father still exists in New Jersey and that was rejected outright. Trump has made it difficult.' So, where does this leave us? I talked to the four winners to look ahead. The good news: They all think a President Biden can get a lot done, even if Republicans keep their majority in the Senate and block his more ambitious plans, as seems likely."

AH, THOSE VERY WELL-THOUGHT OUT AND EVIDENCE-FULL LEGAL CHALLENGES — " Christie says election is over and 'we need to move on' if Trump's legal challenges don't produce anything," by NJ Advance Media's Matt Arco: "If President Donald Trump exhausts all legal challenges that could affect the election then Trump should concede to former Vice President Joe Biden, former Gov. Chris Christie said Saturday. Christie, who was an early supporter of Trump after his own failed presidential bid, spoke on ABC News on the heels of the race being called for Biden. Trump has refused to concede up to this point. 'The votes need to be counted and the president has a right to pursue the legal options that wants to pursue and he's going to pursue those,' Christie said. 'I would hope that if he pursues those legal options and that they turned out not to bear fruit, and I said, I haven't seen any evidence yet at all that they should, that he would do that, that he would make a speech that, you know, would ... try to be one to help people to understand that the election is over — and that we need to move on,' he said."

—"Biden won all but five of N.J.'s counties. See the margin in each of them"

NARRATOR: 'THE ELECTION WAS NOT A DISASTER' — "Republicans introduce measure to prohibit forced mail-in voting in NJ," by NJ 101.5's Dan Alexander: "Republican lawmakers are sponsoring a bill that would amend the state constitution to guarantee in-person voting in future elections and prohibit ballots from being sent to all registered voters. All eligible voters for the New Jersey primary in July, a state primary in August and the November election were sent ballots in the mail per an executive order issued by Gov. Phil Murphy. The presidential election had the highest voter turnout in state history with more than 4 million votes cast. State Sen. Robert Singer and Assemblymen Sean Kean and Edward Thomson said the change in voting this year caused confusion, calling vote-by-mail an 'unmitigated disaster.'"

—Hale: "What President-elect Biden can learn from New Jersey"

—"Fireworks, honking, cheering: NJ reacts to historic Biden/Harris win"

—"New Jersey reacts to Joe Biden, Kamala Harris election victory"

—"We talked to Cory Booker, and he was bursting over projected Biden-Harris win"

—" Trump supporters rally in Bedminster to 'protect the vote' after Biden projected winner"

—"Race tightens in NJ-7, but Malinowski still holds sizeable lead"

LOCAL

BULLSHI — "Edison racist flyers: 'We are not going to stop until we find out who is responsible for this'," by The Courier-News' Nick Muscavage: "The mystery about who was responsible for creating and sending racist flyers in the township's 2017 school board election has not been solved. 'We are not going to stop until we find out who is responsible for this,' said Township Councilman Robert Diehl, who is leading the township council's Committee of the Whole's probe into the flyers. The latest development in the deepening mystery came Thursday just hours after a U.S. Postal Service report alleging eight people were involved in creating the flyers was made public. Township Councilman Ajay Patil, who was named in the report, said he was at Chowpatty Restaurant in October 2017 when the report claimed the flyers were being prepared to be mailed. But Patil said he didn't have anything to do with them and he was 'at the wrong place at the wrong time.' He said he 'strongly believes that with further interviews, something will come out of that.' Patil was named in the report along with seven other people, including: Jerry Shi, a township Board of Education member whose face was pictured on the flyers."

STEALING HIS THUNDER — "Trenton Thunder owner accuses Yankees of racism in move to Bridgewater ," by New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein: "The New York Yankees are dropping their affiliation with the Trenton Thunder and will now have the Somerset Patriots serve as the AA minor league baseball team. The Trenton team has been a Yankees minor league club since 2003 after previous affiliation with the Boston Red Sox. The change was first reported by Baseball America. Trenton Thunder owner Joseph Plumeri said that he learned of the change from the media. He accused the Yankees management of making a 'calculated and ungracious maneuver to leave the urban setting of Trenton for the affluent confines of Bridgewater.' 'It seems the Yankees were only focused on trying to cut culturally diverse Trenton down in favor of a wealthy, higher socioeconomic area in Somerset," Plumeri said. 'Despite repeated assurances that the Thunder would remain its Double A affiliate over the last 16 months, the Yankees betrayed their partnership at the 11th hour.'"

R.I.P. — "Bloomingdale mourns death of longtime mayor Jon Dunleavy," by The Record's Joshua Jongsma: "Residents of Bloomingdale were left in mourning Saturday following the death of Jon Dunleavy, the borough's mayor for the past nine years. The borough's Facebook page shared a tribute to the late mayor Saturday night. No cause of death was given. What it included though was a description of a man greatly dedicated to both his family and Bloomingdale. 'His vision and hard work are evident in the many ways in which he helped to make Bloomingdale a better place,' the borough's Facebook post stated. Dunleavy died only days after his 30th wedding anniversary with his wife, Janet. He has four children, Katie, Ryan, Emily and Sean."

—"Camden County, state commission clash over worker's use of N-word"

—"Sussex County saw slight increase in Democrat support in 2020 election"

—"[Clifton] closes all schools for in-person classes through January due to spike in COVID-19 cases"

—"Neptune City cop told woman he arrested he'd 'like to be in bed' with her, authorities say"

—"Judge blocks Cumberland jail transfer plan, but PBA loses layoff case"

JOIN THURSDAY: A WOMEN RULE ROUNDTABLE : 2020 proved to be a history-making year for women in politics. We saw the first Black woman elected as vice president, a record number of Republican women running for Congress, and women of color running for public office at an all-time high. Join POLITICO's Elizabeth Ralph, Crooked Media's Shaniqua McClendon, and Winning for Women's Micah Yousefi for a deep dive into the results for women candidates in the 2020 election cycle and what progress we still need to see for women in politics. REGISTER HERE.

EVERYTHING ELSE

—"N.J. landlord has been accused of sexual harassment by the feds and 4 tenants. He has not been criminally charged"

APOLOGY: Some of you brought to my attention Friday that I included the late Sen. Jim Whelan on the birthday list. Unfortunately, I didn't catch his name when copying birthdays from a previous year. Sorry about that.

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