News: Election Day 2020

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Election Day 2020

America, we've reached the end of the line: Election Day is here.

Tonight's Sentences was written by Benjamin Rosenberg.

TOP NEWS

Election Day has finally arrived. Here's what's at stake.

Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

After more than a year of campaigning — a time rocked by a pandemic, a renewed struggle for racial justice, and an economic crisis — Election Day in the US is here. Vox has live results on key races, from the president to the Senate to marijuana legalization referendums. [Vox / Ella Nilsen]
The presidential race has received most of the attention. Nearly every major national poll has shown Democratic challenger Joe Biden in the lead over President Trump, but Trump still has paths to victory. [Vox / Andrew Prokop]
Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 — despite losing the popular vote — by flipping three key upper Midwestern states: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. This year, Biden leads in polls in all three, though results in these states could be slow to roll in. [Washington Post / Dan Balz]
Biden could win the presidency without flipping those key states back into the Democrats' hands, but the math would be tougher for him. He is polling competitively in Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, and even Georgia — all states Trump won four years ago. [The Hill / Justine Coleman]
The president, however, still has a number of paths to victory, especially if the margins in some states are small enough for the Supreme Court to get involved. Of the states Clinton won in 2016, Minnesota is viewed as the most likely to flip to Trump, but it's still a long shot. [StarTribune / Patrick Condon]
Many states will not have complete results on election night. While some key states, like Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina allow election officials to count mail-in ballots before Election Day, others, including Pennsylvania and Michigan, do not. [NYT / Alicia Parlapiano]
The battle for the US Senate is also expected to be intense. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, and Democrats will likely need to flip at least four seats to claim the chamber they lost during the 2014 midterm elections. [Vox / Ella Nilsen]
Maine, Colorado, and Arizona are the most likely seats to flip from red to blue, with Susan Collins, Cory Gardner, and Martha McSally the most vulnerable incumbent Republicans. Alabama, where Doug Jones won a special election in 2017, is likely to be a Republican pickup. [CNN / Simone Pathe]
The Democrats also have potential pickup opportunities in North Carolina, Iowa, and Montana, and even have an outside chance in Georgia and Texas. FiveThirtyEight on Monday gave them a 75 percent chance of flipping the Senate, though Republicans could still maintain control. [FiveThirtyEight / Nathaniel Rakich]
All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are also on the line. The Democrats currently hold a 232-197 majority, which they claimed in the 2018 midterms, and they are likely to hold onto that majority this year, potentially gaining even more seats. [FiveThirtyEight / Nathaniel Rakich]
This is despite Trump's prediction at the last presidential debate that the GOP would take back the House in 2020 because of Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the lack of a new Covid-19 stimulus bill. Still, a number of races will be close, in states like Missouri, Texas, and New Mexico. [USA Today / Savannah Behrmann]
Republicans currently hold a 26-24 edge in governor's mansions, and there are not many competitive races this year. Montana and North Carolina are the most likely pickups for the GOP, while Missouri could be a pickup opportunity for the Democrats. [Vox / Benjamin Rosenberg]
Several states also have important ballot initiatives on the table. Five states — Arizona, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota — have proposed legalizing marijuana, and Oregon has a ballot measure that would decriminalize all drugs. [Rolling Stone / Ryan Bort]
In Colorado, voters will decide whether the state will ban abortions after 22 weeks, and the vote is likely to be close. And for the sixth time, Puerto Rico will vote on statehood. [PBS / Ivette Feliciano]

MISCELLANEOUS

Cities all over the US are preparing for post-election unrest, as some businesses from Washington, DC, to New York to Denver are boarding up windows in anticipation of protests, no matter the outcome.

[Associated Press]

Two people are dead and five more wounded after a stabbing incident late on Halloween night in Quebec City. Police on Sunday arrested a man dressed in medieval garb and carrying a sword. [NYT / Dan Bilefsky]
A gunman in the Austrian capital of Vienna on Monday who killed four people and wounded 22 likely acted alone, authorities are saying. The attacker was identified as a 20-year-old dual citizen of Austria and North Macedonia who had connections with the Islamic State. [ABC News / Sarah Hucal and Christine Theodorou]
A Louisiana man who pleaded guilty to setting fire to three Black churches in the state in March and April 2019 has been sentenced to 25 years in prison, and ordered to pay more than $2.66 million in damages. [CNN / Theresa Waldrop and Rebecca Riess]
Here are 12 fun facts about the US election to read while you're waiting for results to come in this evening, courtesy of the Charlotte Observer. [Charlotte Observer / Laurie Larsh]
You can also listen to a live Election Day edition of The Weeds podcast, with analysis from Ella Nilsen, Matt Yglesias, and Jane Coaston. [Vox]